"I think it's hard to get out." Fang Xinsheng said, "'Big Finance', 'Big Infrastructure', 'Military Industry' these core main lines, the reason why this year is so strong, the most core supporting logic, or these main lines are expected to be very strong this year, first of all, the 'new era on the road, the Maritime Silk Road' of the macroeconomic strategic planning stimulus, opened up the entire 'big infrastructure' main line of external demand."

Then the policy stimulus on the reform of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, the restructuring of military assets, the securitization of military assets and other incentives.

Coupled with the arrival of the bull market in the market, the rapid rise in turnover and trading volume in the two cities has provided a strong foundation for the main line of 'big finance', especially the securities sector, for this year's performance.

It is all these expectations that support the logic of the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.

As for the two main lines of 'sub-IPO' and 'film and television media', they are also particularly tough and can be cashed in logical support.

In June this year, the 'film market revitalization' plan jointly proposed by the six major ministries and commissions gave subsidies to the entire domestic film market, which directly boosted the box office of the film market in the second half of the year, thus injecting performance growth expectations into major film and television companies and the entire entertainment, film and television industry chain.

With this strong performance surge expectation, as well as firm policy support.

Only then did the 'film and television media' sector explode in the second half of the year.

Similarly, the continuous outbreak of the 'sub-IPO' sector, as well as the logic of various short-term capital groups gathering in this field to hype, is also very clear.

That is because after the resumption of IPOs, the regulators in order not to increase the burden on the market.

It is a serious compression of the financing amount and valuation level of the IPO of major companies, whether it is a company in an emerging industry or a company in a traditional industry, the listing is given a unified PE valuation of 22 times.

This obviously gives the opportunity for new stock listing speculation.

Coupled with the arrival of the bull market, the valuation level of the entire market has passively increased.

Then, it is difficult for the sub-IPO sector, which has a chip advantage, not to be hyped by short-term capital groups from all walks of life.

These are the basic logic of these core main lines in the past, and they are also the most fundamental supporting forces why these popular main lines have been continuously hyped by funds from all walks of life in the past and can support the upward movement of the broader market index.

But at present, let's look at the fundamentals of the main line areas such as 'big consumption', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical', 'mobile Internet', and 'smart phone industry chain' under the so-called main line 'high and low switch'.

'Big consumption' can also be said to be the investment logic of increasing demand after the news confidence picks up under the expectation of economic recovery, but the core main line sectors of 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical' and 'coal' are completely speculated by funds from all walks of life.

At present, the cyclical main plates of 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical' and 'coal'.

It is true that valuations are very low, basically at the lowest level in history.

However, according to the information of all aspects of the market, the fundamentals of these main sectors and major industries are still deteriorating.

Thermal coal, aluminum, copper, zinc, iron, oil prices......

There is no trace of a cycle reversal at all.

The global economic recovery, at present, is not as strong as everyone expected.

It is basically impossible to expect economic recovery to drive the reversal of the main line of the entire cycle.

In the last round, the bull market in 06 and 07 was mainly driven by the main line of the cycle and the main line of big finance.

That round of bull market, before the bull market's investment confidence and investment sentiment were detonated by the 'equity split reform'.

The first thing that happened was the big bull market pattern of the whole cyclical industry under the strong growth of the global economy.

It is with the explosion of the entire non-ferrous metals and oil cycle that there is a scene of the entire bull market stage in the future, and the cycle and finance go hand in hand.

However, this round of bull market.

You can't see that at all.

Not only can it not be seen, but it is obvious that the fundamentals of the entire cyclical industry are still deteriorating, and at the current valuation level, in the context of the continued decline in the profitability of companies related to the major cyclical industries, to be honest, it is difficult to support.

Since its fundamentals show no signs of improving.

So, without the underlying logical support, relying on emotions alone, how can it be possible to guide the entire main rising wave market of these major main line markets, and even want to use this to pull the market?

As for the two core main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'.

It is true that we are in the Internet technology innovation cycle of the outbreak of the mobile Internet, and these two core main lines are indeed the biggest investment outlets for the current social development and even in the next few years.

However, just because everyone knows that this is the outlet.

Therefore, on the tuyere, any company, enterprise, or project with a little texture has been hyped to the peak of valuation by various funds and capitals, and even the valuation bubble stage.

In the investment market, there is a saying.

It's called consistent expectations, and it's often hard to generate any excess return on investment.

In my opinion, often overly consistent expectations will not only fail to generate excess investment returns, but may also put us in a very high risk of investment.

'Smartphone industry chain' and 'mobile Internet' are among the two core main areas.

The companies listed in our A-share market are somewhat mixed.

Its valuation has not been fully digested by the bear market, and the market has been hyped around these two main lines for the first two or three consecutive years.

I think these two main lines are difficult to get out of the sustained independent market for the time being.

There is one more reason.

That is, the chip structure of these two main areas, for now, is still very chaotic.

It is because everyone knows that these two main lines are the outlets with high certainty in the future, so the capital groups that are temporarily trapped in these two main line areas will definitely not easily cut their meat.

However, they do not cut the flesh and leave the field.

It has always been the market of these two main lines to continue to rise, forming an obvious suppression situation.

As a result, in the absence of obvious valuation advantages, there are not many main funds, or active short-term capital groups, gathered in the two main lines to carry the sedan chair.

This is also why these two main lines are obviously the outlets of the future, with various strong logic and expectations.

However, in the past six months, or even a year, it has continued to underperform the market, and there has been no excess investment income except for the independent 'Internet finance' sector.

Since 'big consumption', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical', 'coal', 'mobile Internet', 'smart phone industry chain'...... These so-called relatively low-level main lines all have their well-known investment logic flaws, which cannot really allow funds to pull up without scruples.

So, why do you think that these core main lines can support the strength of the market.

What about the replacement of a number of mainline markets with core investment logic, such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', 'sub-new stocks', and 'film and television media'?

So......

In my opinion, the so-called 'high and low switching' logic of the main line of the market.

In essence, it is a false proposition.

This is the main line, the logical superiority and inferiority, and the corresponding logical defects.

Furthermore, let's analyze from the direction of the simple index weight and the market value of the main line of individual stocks, and the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' are missing.

The rest of the main line, when it comes to market capitalization, is also difficult to completely drive the market.

So to speak......

If the Shanghai Index wants to go up to 4,000 points, it is impossible to lack the main attack of the two main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

In other words, it is difficult for the Shanghai Composite Index to continue to break through and touch the space of the 4,000-point line before the adjustment of the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' is not over, and before the market investment sentiment and speculation can be re-condensed.

Since the Shanghai Composite Index cannot go up in the short term, it can only adjust downward.

Then, the so-called low-level main concepts of 'big consumption', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical', 'coal', 'smart phone industry chain', and 'mobile Internet', under the defects of basic investment logic, cannot drive the market, and cannot support the adjustment of the market in this position, so it is naturally difficult to stand alone.

Most of the time, in a short-term emotional counteroffensive, it could not drive the entire market.

It will also continue to pull back to find the bottom with the adjustment of the core main lines such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', until it encounters stronger support and a stronger undertaking and chassis.

Other words......

I think the market will probably fall for a while in the short term.

Before the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' are not adjusted in place, there is no need for us to follow the many self-righteous funds in the market, or the general expectations of everyone, to do what 'high and low switching' investment strategy changes and corresponding position adjustments.

Sit tight......

Waiting for the market to quickly smash out a deep pit under the strong stimulation of the main capital of the 'Yuhang system' is what we should do at present.

Even though the basic logic of the market's bull market has not been destroyed at present.

Even though the entire market is still in the pattern and logic of a bull market.

Well, we shouldn't be too eager to get back the chips we've just lost.

In a bull market, it does not mean that the market will not fall, nor does it mean that in a bull market, the investor group will not lose money, in essence...... In a bull market, the requirements for everyone's cognition will be higher.

Those are real gold, and those are fake gold, and we need to be carefully screened. ”

"Okay!" Liu Xin nodded, and said with a smile, "If you say this, I understand, it seems that our next main investment goals, as well as investment sights, will still focus on the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media'." ”

Fang Xinsheng said with a smile: "Naturally, under the background of the bull market, as well as the macro strategy of 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road' that the country continues to promote, the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' cannot end at their current position."

At the moment, the adjustment of these main lines.

It's just that the early profit is too heavy, and the 'Yuhang system' deliberately reduces positions on a large scale and takes profits.

As long as the underlying investment logic is not destroyed, then the chip structure will be stabilized again when the core main lines are adjusted to a certain position.

The market will naturally rise.

Based on the history of market development in the past.

The main line of the market, which is often laid from the beginning of the bull market, will run through the entire bull market.

And investment, in the case of no change in the core logic, from the beginning, to obtain excess profits, it is also easier, so we do not need to adjust the investment ideas, as long as we stare at the market changes of the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

And these two main lines.

As the two core main lines with the largest volume and the highest index weight in the market.

It is enough to carry the funds of our institution, even if we make a move later than the main capital of the 'Yuhang Department', it is completely late.

After all, we don't have the same worries that they have about a ship's shipwrecked U-turn.

The relevant trading seats of our institutions will not have so many concerns about buying and selling chips. ”

"Well, Mr. Fang is right." After stopping all the analyses of Fang Xinsheng's next market trend and the main capital motive of the 'Yuhang system', at this time, Mu Zhengxing pondered for a moment and agreed very much, "I also think that the market's 'high and low switching' market idea is like pseudo-logic, and it is unlikely to form a sustained market trend, but the concept of the market continuing to fall is greater."

Because in fact, with the large-scale reduction of the core main capital of the 'Yuhang Department', it is out.

The overall bullish sentiment of the market, at least in the short term.

It's a total collapse.

In addition, after such a long period of market growth, the profit plates in the popular main line areas of "big finance", "big infrastructure", "military industry", "sub-new stocks", and "film and television media" have been piled up extremely strongly, and then superimposed on the year-end pass, many institutions in our industry, whether they are public institutions or private equity institutions, many have the demand for net value settlement and liquidation settlement.

There is also after the central bank cuts interest rates and lowers the reserve requirement.

The market's policy expectations in the short term are also in a relatively vacuum stage.

Under the influence of so many factors, no matter how you look at it, the Shanghai Composite Index has no room and momentum to continue to rise, and can only continue to adjust downward.

In the face of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'sub-new stocks', 'film and television media', and 'military industry'...... These hot main line areas continue to sell pressure, in the absence of various positive factors for longing.

Indeed, it is difficult to imagine that the main industry sectors of 'large infrastructure', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical', 'mobile Internet', and 'smart phone industry chain', which are relatively weak and have relatively limited participation in the main funds, can come out of independent market opportunities.

To sum up......

This time, in terms of investment strategies and trading strategies.

It is undoubtedly much better to reduce positions and take profits, or to be patient enough and wait for the market to see the next clearer market trend, than to participate in the idea of 'high and low switching'. (End of chapter)