Zhou Kan thought for a while and responded: "Isn't the expectation of macroeconomic recovery a sustained long-term benefit for 'big consumption'? With the recovery of the economy and the increase of everyone's income, consumption upgrading should be expected, right? I feel that the whole 'big consumption' can pass through the bull and bear, which is also the logic.

As for the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain'.

Although the upgrading of smart phones and the process of replacing feature phones with smart phones have been basically completed, the penetration rate of smart phones has begun to decline gradually.

But the total market volume is growing, isn't that expected?

And with the complete replacement of the feature phone market by smartphones, as smartphones are fully popularized into the hands of all users.

The continued explosion of the mobile Internet is also expected.

Of course, the expectations of these two aspects, as you said the boss, are open cards, and many institutions in the industry, as well as the vast number of investor groups, can expect this result.

And this is also the two core main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain'.

The adjustment time is so long, the chip structure cannot be consolidated for a long time, and there are many root causes for nails in these two core main areas.

In general, compare the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.

Analyze from a macro and long-term perspective.

In fact, the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain' are still not inferior at all.

It's just that it may not be so strong in terms of policy expectations.

After all, the 'Eurasian Economic Belt', 'The Maritime Silk Road in the New Era', 'The Construction of China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Zone', 'Shanghai Free Trade Zone', 'New Urbanization Construction', 'Reform and Reorganization of Central Enterprises and State-owned Enterprises', 'Military Asset Securitization'...... These are all sustained benefits of strong policy drivers and stimulus.

But, for now......

After a year of money speculation and continuous rise.

The three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' are obviously expected to be overdrawn at present.

In this case, the theme idea of 'high and low switching' in the market is in line.

The three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain', which also have long-term logical expectations, replace the market trend of the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' with low-level advantages and chip structure advantages.

So as to complete the switch of the market on the main line of the market.

I think it's also a reasonable thing to do, and it's not too surprising. ”

After listening to Zhou Kan's analysis of the market, Xu Shen smiled and said: "In addition to the advantages of 'chip structure' you just mentioned, the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smart phone industry chain', compared with the advantages of the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', no matter which direction they are, they are obviously untenable."

First of all, let's talk about the macroeconomic recovery.

You must know that under the influence of strong policies, even if the economy recovers, consumption is the last link.

First of all, large-scale recovery, must be the core of the "big infrastructure" of the main line of the related industry sector, after all, our country, the current macroeconomic strategy policy, is the "real estate economy" as the core of the economic development policy, you don't see the property market loosening, has been talking for a long time?

Don't you see that in the market, steel, cement, and other building materials are already at the end of the production capacity?

Is it already in the darkest hour before dawn?

Since consumption is the last link, and the priority for recovery must be infrastructure and real estate, why should we abandon infrastructure and real estate in the near and far and lay out the so-called 'big consumption' field?

Just because in the past few days, the main line of 'big consumption' has risen well?

As I said before, we can't be affected by short-term market trends and temporary market performance when we make investments.

We must have the spirit of 'not being afraid of clouds and clouds', and we must not blind our eyes.

Let's talk about the main line of 'big finance'.

In the same way, is it a bull market now? Compared with the beginning of the year, has the market turnover skyrocketed by five or six times? In the direction that can be expected, do a number of financial stocks have the potential for short-term performance explosion? These expectations ...... It should be clearer than the so-called 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', right?

In this case, why should we abandon the main line of 'big finance' and chase the two major expectations of 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain', which are not clear, and it is difficult to appear in the main line areas that exceed expectations under the situation of open cards? Of course...... Among them, the 'Internet Finance' sector is another.

This sector, in terms of the current trend, follows the main line of 'big finance'.

It has basically nothing to do with the so-called 'mobile Internet' concept theme.

As for the main line of 'military industry', the underlying logic just now, you have already said that the long-term increase in 'defense spending' in the future is basically a certain thing, and the 'securitization of military assets' is also a set tone.

On the whole, the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry'.

There is no problem in the underlying logic, in the logic of medium- and long-term expectations, in policy expectations, and in terms of continuous policy pouring and stimulus.

At present, the reason why these three core main lines are weakening is that they are falling into continuous adjustment.

The only reason is that the early rise is too fast, too urgent, and too many short- and medium-term profits have been accumulated, which has led to the instability of the chip structure.

In other words......

At present, the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain', compared with the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', the only advantage is the advantage of the chip structure, and on the contrary, the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', compared with the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet' and 'smart phone industry chain', the only disadvantage is that there is only a disadvantage of chaotic chip structure.

Let's look at the expected logic of the three core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain' that you just mentioned.

'Big consumption' areas, such as home appliances.

It is a typical real estate-related sector, if the property market is strong, the home appliance sector will be strong, and if the property market is sluggish, the home appliance sector will also be quite sluggish.

Retail, automotive, food, beverage and other consumer sectors.

In addition to daily necessities, we can only wait for the so-called 'consumption upgrade' to improve the fundamentals of the industry.

In particular, in the automotive industry, in the absence of new technological innovation, we can only wait for consumption to upgrade, but when can consumption be upgraded? Nobody knows.

So the future expectations of the entire 'big consumption' field.

It seems to be very clear, but when you analyze it carefully, it is not as beautiful as it seems.

As for the two core main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'.

It is true that the market size of the 'mobile Internet' is expanding rapidly, and the number of mobile Internet users is growing explosively, but what about the performance of related industry sectors?

How to monetize traffic has always been a huge problem for Internet companies.

In the era of mobile Internet, does this problem not exist?

What's more, how many of the Internet companies listed on the domestic A-share market have a high corporate moat and core corporate competitiveness?

Basically, no, right?

In this case, under the expectation of almost open cards, where is the expected difference, where is the excess profit investment space?

As for the line of 'smart phone industry chain', at present, the expectation is relatively clear, and there should only be a branch line of 'Apple industry chain', and other electronic information, semiconductors and other sectors are currently not hopeful, nor can they find the expectation that the performance will continue to explode.

It can rely solely on the branch line of the 'Apple industry chain'.

Can it support the main line of the entire 'smartphone industry chain'? I think it's unlikely, right? ”

In fact, it is necessary to say that the direction of small and medium-sized caps and gems, that is, in the direction of small- and medium-cap growth stocks, the current expectations are relatively clear on the direction of industry sectors and thematic investments.

I think that the line of 'film and television media' is obviously stronger than the so-called 'big consumption', 'smart phone industry chain', 'mobile Internet' and other core main lines.

After all, with the increase in the number of domestic big screens, as well as box office subsidies, and the country's continuous policy support in the field of 'film and television', this industry, which can be described as a wild market, has obvious explosive potential, and according to the box office trend of each quarter of this year.

It can be seen that the entire domestic film market has really recovered in an all-round way.

It's just that the industry sector of 'film and television media' is too small to carry large funds, so naturally it can't support the entire market, so it can only go with the flow. ”

"The film and television media sector has been really strong recently." Zhou Kan said, "This sector, before the 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry' and other core main lines rose, also rose, and now the short-term speculation of the market has shifted to the main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', 'smart phone industry chain', and the 'film and television media' sector is still rising."

This is a bit of an independent trend.

In fact, in the first half of the year, the wave in June was when the 'film and television media' concentrated on releasing the good.

Many institutions in the industry have invested heavily in the chips of this sector, and there is nothing wrong with long-term investment logic.

In fact, in the entire 'film and television media' sector, the trend of a number of core stocks, the performance of the year's gains, is not inferior to the 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry' several main line areas of related core stocks and popular stocks, and even stocks like 'Huayi Brothers, Huace Film and Television', have risen more than three times.

But what's the deal, this plate.

Indeed, as you said, the boss, there are hard wounds.

That is, the market value of the plate is too small, the circulation is limited, and it cannot carry the core main funds like the 'Yuhang system', nor can it drive the market of the entire market to rise, and can only form a small range of money-making effects.

Just like at this moment, the market of the 'film and television media' sector has exploded in an all-round way.

However, the Shanghai Index, Shenzhen Index, and ChiNext Index have not been driven to make money in the relevant core industry sectors.

However, it is not suitable for the main capital layout like the 'Yuhang Department'.

For our size of funds, it is quite suitable.

I think that since the logic of the line of 'film and television media' is clear, and the future expectations are also strong, the fundamentals of the entire industry are changing in an all-round way, and the short- and medium-term performance of relevant listed companies also has a strong explosive force.

So, in this direction, we make an appropriate layout and increase some positions, I think it is more appropriate. ”

Xu Shen pondered for a moment, and responded with a smile: "Enhance the chips of the 'film and television media' line, and increase the weight of the 'film and television media' line in our fund holdings, I think there is no problem, you can do this to give it a try, but about the layout of the three core main areas of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smart phone industry chain', I think we should still be cautious."

As long as the market is open as usual.

In fact, there is never a shortage of opportunities to buy chips.

In the case of uncertainty about the future development of the market, we might as well take a look.

In the bull market, in fact, there is no problem with a 10% or 20% spatial fault tolerance rate, whether it is a left-hand layout or a right-hand layout, it is also appropriate and in time. ”

"Okay!" After listening to Xu Shen's analysis of the market just now, Zhou Kan has actually understood the underlying logic of what Xu Shen said, and is no longer so persistent in the so-called market mainline market switching, as well as the layout of the main line fields such as 'big consumption', 'smart phone industry chain', and 'mobile Internet', and couldn't help but smile and respond, "Then let's try to buy a little bit of chips in the field of 'film and television media'. ”

Xu Shen nodded with a smile and said: "That's right, according to what you just said, I didn't see the 'Yuhang Department' The main capital has a clear position adjustment, and at the same time, the market has no obvious traces of shrinkage and the end of the adjustment, we just want to maintain a relatively low position, see more and move less, and wait for the market to change."

Patience is the most important skill in trading.

We trade in the financial markets and want to make enough profits through the financial markets.

Then you must learn to be like a hunter, to be able to wait motionless for a long time in the ice and snow, holding a shotgun, waiting for the prey to gradually appear in the range of the shotgun, neither being impatient to go ahead of time, nor shooting the prey indiscriminately when the prey has not yet reached the range. ”

"Okay!" Zhou Kan nodded again.

Immediately, according to the strategy plan discussed by the two just now, he issued relevant trading instructions to the traders behind him.

Subsequently, when the order is given, it is completed.

Zhou Kan once again set his eyes back on the trading boards of the two markets.

I saw that the trading time of the two markets at this time had entered about 10:50, and the Shanghai Index, Shenzhen Index, and ChiNext Index had all exceeded 1% of the increase under the continuous rebound trend, showing a rare general situation. (End of chapter)