Chapter 882: Divergence of Views Between Rebound and Reversal!
"Impossible." Hearing Mu Zhengxing's words, Fang Xinsheng, who had also been staring at the two markets, squinted his eyes and said with a smile, "The core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry' have accumulated so many heavy profits in the early stage and liberated so many trapped disks.
It is far from the time when the internal chip structure is re-condensed and even adjusted.
Why is this the bottom of the range?
If you want me to say, most of the core lines here are just 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', which have fallen too sharply and too hard in the short term, in the continuous downward trend, and have temporarily formed a counterattack and a short-term rebound in the technical pattern.
Wait until the chassis is almost consumed.
After this wave of stimulus, the mood for the rebound gradually faded.
With a high probability, the industry sectors and concept sector indexes related to the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', as well as the corresponding core weighted stocks and popular leading stocks, will continue to fall rapidly as before and look for new support below.
Of course, the 'film and television media' sector is a bit special and exceptional.
At present, the 'film and television media' sector should be the strongest conceptual theme sector in the current market, but because the market value of this conceptual theme sector is too small, the overall market trend and structural impact on the market can be described as minimal.
Therefore, its market trend cannot change the overall market trend.
Compared with the core main lines such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', which have rebounded comprehensively at the moment.
In fact, the main line areas such as 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain', which are weak today, as well as the main line areas such as 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical', and 'coal', which have been in a weak form and continue to linger at the bottom.
On the contrary, the investment risk in the short and medium term is smaller.
Of course, this is not to say that the investment risk of these core main lines is relatively small.
It can show that these core main lines are the main line areas that are worth investing in at present.
No, at the current stage, that is, when the market correction is not over, but is in a short-term rebound situation, no matter which core main line, it is not suitable to increase long. ”
"According to Mr. Fang, what you mean, the Shanghai Index is still unable to hold up at this position of 3600 points?" Mu Zhengxing asked, "And do you think that the current trend of the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry' is still in the middle of the adjustment stage?" There is not the slightest trace of the end or the end of the adjustment? ”
Fang Xinsheng nodded and said: "That's true, I can't see any traces of the end of the adjustment of these core main lines in the market at present." ”
"But the buying funds in the market are very positive." Mu Zhengxing said.
Fang Xinsheng responded: "The positive buying funds can only show that the current market sentiment is not bad, and it does not mean that this is the bottom of this round of adjustment, or the end, and the market can have an obvious seesaw effect in the intraday, which means that the buying volume is still insufficient, and can only take care of one aspect of the market trend slightly." ”
"If 3,600 points can't hold up, what about 3,500 points?"
Liu Xin, the general manager of Xinniu Fund Company, didn't know when, he had already walked into the main fund trading room and asked with a smile.
Fang Xinsheng thought for a while and said: "If you want me to say, the position of 3,500 points, I'm afraid it will be difficult to hold on, after all, the three core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', the accumulated profits and hedging chips are too much, not to mention the scale of hundreds of billions and trillions of funds."
The size of the potential selling chips at this level.
It doesn't take just a few days to clean up and complete the further conversion of the chip agency.
And this is also the trace that we have not seen the main capital of the 'Yu Hang Department' to build a long position again, because as the smartest main fund in the market, the 'Yu Hang Department' this share of funds, know too well that this time, it is definitely not the time for the end of the market adjustment.
So, my advice is......
At this time, we must not be in a hurry, and we must not be affected by the short-term rebound trend of the market.
It is necessary to maintain enough patience and wait until the market correction is really over before re-opening a position and getting back the chips, which is a sound investment strategy and trading strategy.
At least...... In any case, it is the safest to see the capital of the 'Yuhang system' and then appear in the buying seats of the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities, or to clarify the purchase traces of this capital on the disk. ”
"What if we make a mistake in judgment and the index is at 3600 points, so we don't continue to fall?" Mu Zhengxing said, "If the index continues to attack, then we will be in vain." ”
Fang Xinsheng said with a smile: "Do you think it's uncomfortable to step into the air, or is it uncomfortable to lose money?" ”
"That's definitely a loss of money." Liu Xin said, "After all, if you go short, you don't lose funds, you only lose opportunities, and if you lose your position, you will lose money and opportunity costs." ”
Fang Xinsheng nodded and said: "That's the truth, so if we make a mistake in judgment, we can step on 200 points at most, and there is nothing to be afraid of, there is no opportunity to enter on the left, so after the error in judgment, the opportunity to enter the right side always exists, right?" In that case, let's just do the right chance. ”
"I really can't see the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', and there is still a risk of continuing to fall sharply." Mu Zhengxing said, "The related industry sectors and concept sectors of these core main lines, as well as many popular stocks and weighted stocks, at present, technically, their moving averages have touched the position of the 20-day line, which is reasonable...... Near the 20-day line, there will be a clear support. ”
Fang Xinsheng said: "The technical side of this thing, there is a certain role, but the role is not too big, in the end, it is necessary to combine its chip structure, as well as the overall news, emotion, fundamentals and other comprehensive situation, can not just look at the technical trend pattern, otherwise it is fortune telling." ”
"That's right." Liu Xin said, "But it's still hard to imagine that 3,500 points can't hold on, after all...... At present, although the market's bullish power is not particularly strong, the Shanghai Composite Index has been hovering at this position of 3600 points for several trading days, and it really doesn't look like it has no support, and it ...... In fact, in addition to the chaotic structure of chips, the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' are expected in the short and medium term, in the underlying investment logic in the medium and long term, and in the expectation of macro policy direction...... It should be all right, right?
Since these various expected factors have not changed much from before.
Then, it stands to reason that the magnitude of the decline should be very limited.
After all, as long as there is expected support, there is a corresponding fundamental reversal expectation, and there is strong enough policy expectation support, then there will be continuous bottom-buying funds to undertake, so ...... The transformation of the chip structure is actually very fast, I don't think that the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry' will be completely slumped after the main capital of the 'Yuhang Department' reduces its position and leaves.
Moreover, from today's rebound trend of the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', and the strength of the rebound.
Even if the entry is short-term bottom-buying funds and a lot of speculative funds.
But the strength of the undertaking on the disk is really not weak.
With such a pattern trend and such a volume of energy changes, it feels like it will not take too long to complete the transformation of the internal chip structure.
Therefore, I think 3600 points is indeed a high probability that it will not be able to hold on.
But at 3500 points, there is still a high probability that it can hold on, right? ”
"I agree with General Manager Liu." Mu Zhengxing said, "And Manager Fang just said that the line of 'film and television media' is already the strongest core main line in the two cities, so we ...... Is it possible to open a part of the position on this line first and wait for the opportunity? ”
See the current market movement.
Mu Zhengxing was a little afraid of stepping into the void completely, so he put forward this suggestion.
Fang Xinsheng pondered for a while, and originally refused to increase his position in this position, but he glanced at Liu Xin and Mu Zhengxing's demeanor, and knew that the two of them were still a little worried about the low position of the company's two main fund products, and he had said it more than once.
It means that although the market is in a downward correction trend.
However, the overall bull market structure of the market, as well as the underlying logic of the bull market, have not changed.
In this case, it is natural to worry about stepping into the void.
"Okay." After pondering for a while, Fang Xinsheng responded, "At this stage, I agree to increase some of the chips in the main direction of 'film and television media', but I still feel that in terms of the overall position level of our two main fund products...... It's better not to exceed 30%. ”
He guessed that the 'Yuhang Department' is the smartest main capital in the market.
The current position of the main fund is definitely very low.
And he still insists that the Shanghai Composite Index will not only fail to hold at 3,500 points, but also with a high probability of holding up at 3,400 points and 3,300 points.
If it was really as he expected......
In the next few days, the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to fall, and if it touches 3400 points and 3300 points, then there will be a lot of room for adjustment.
If they take too heavy a position, they will also suffer large losses and drawdowns.
That's more than worth the loss.
There is also the line of 'film and television media', although the short-term expectations are sufficient, and there is also the expected support of a comprehensive reversal of fundamentals, but the impact on the overall market trend is too small.
There are no eggs under the so-called nest.
He is also more worried that once he enters the core line of 'film and television media', his position is too heavy, and he is afraid that it will be difficult to withdraw at that time, not only will he not make much profit, but he will lose capital.
Seeing that Fang Xinsheng agreed to increase his position on the main line of the concept of 'film and television media'.
Mu Zhengxing and Liu Xin were somewhat happy in their hearts.
As Mu Zhengxing nodded, he began to implement the investment strategy and corresponding trading strategy that Fang Xinsheng said.
At this time, the trading time of the two markets has entered around 10:40.
When the three of them discussed the market situation, in the past ten minutes or so, the disk of the two cities is still under the leadership of several core main lines such as "big finance", "big infrastructure", "military industry", etc., and continues to rebound.
Of course, the main theme of the concept of 'film and television media', which has attracted much attention, and its associated industry sectors.
At this moment, it still maintains a strong rebound trend.
The 'film and television media' industry sector still occupies the top five positions in the list of industry sectors in the two cities, while the related theme sectors such as 'Internet online education', 'mobile games', 'film and television production', 'star shareholding', and 'celebrity indirect participation' are also in the forefront of the list of conceptual theme plates in the two cities.
At the same time, with the continuous rebound of the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry' and 'film and television media'.
At this time, the originally weak "big consumption", "mobile Internet", and "smart phone industry chain" are the main lines.
All of them also began to rise in the red.
Although there is a gap between the trend of the relevant industry sectors and conceptual theme plates in these main line areas and the industry sectors and concept plates in the core main line fields such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry', there is a gap in the market price increase, but from the perspective of the trend pattern of the entire market.
Under the continuous action of copying chassis and undertaking plates.
At this moment, the two cities still have a little bit of a comprehensive reversal, and they are concentrated in the general upward trend.
Especially when the trading hours of the two markets entered 11 o'clock in the morning, this general upward trend became more obvious.
However, under the role of numerous funds.
When the trading hours of the two markets are close to noon.
The general rise of the two cities suddenly began to diverge again.
That is, the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', and 'military industry', as well as their related industry sectors, conceptual theme plates, as well as a number of core stocks and popular stocks, suddenly encountered a wave of heavier concentrated sell-offs again, and the corresponding market trends have all fallen.
The industry sectors and concept sectors related to the core main lines of 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain', as well as a number of popular stocks and core weight stocks, which were originally lagging behind these core main lines, ushered in a lot of concentrated buying at this moment.
It seems that in an instant, this main line with clear strengths and weaknesses has traces of transformation and switching. (End of chapter)