Chapter 672 [Armageddon 1]
In the summer, the economy of China's neighboring countries shrank sharply, and the political situation was turbulent.
The yen has fallen again and again, putting great pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and the renminbi;
Indonesia's ongoing crisis;
financial turmoil in Russia;
In Hong Kong, there are signs that the upcoming unemployment rate and the interim results of listed companies are extremely disappointing.
Western investment bank analysts lack confidence in whether China can continue to maintain high economic growth, and their forecasts for China's economic growth rate have been lowered from 7%, 6%, and 5% to 2%, or even 0. He also claimed that as long as China's economic growth exceeded the forecast, the Chinese government must have "done something tricky" in statistics.
Rational economic analysis becomes garbage that no one wants, and what sells well in the market is rumors that represent the interests of speculators. The hottest rumor is that the domestic black market exchange rate in China has soared, and a big depreciation of the RMB is imminent.
At the end of July, there were rumors in the black market of foreign exchange in Modu, due to many factors such as floods and the yen crisis, it was difficult to maintain the value of RMB. "The Chinese government may depreciate the RMB by as much as 30%", and for a time, the RMB fell to 8.70 against the US dollar on the black market, 5% lower than the official exchange rate of 8.28. The rumours also prompted investors to sell B shares to cash out and buy US dollars, with B shares falling as much as 3.5% on July 28, hitting a record low.
On the same day, a commentary in the Pengcheng Securities Times pointed out that the Huaxia government had warned the United States that if the United States continued to allow the yen to continue to depreciate, Huaxia would likely reconsider the question of whether the renminbi would depreciate.
A dealer at Sakura Bank in Tokyo said, "According to reports, Mr. Tai, the president of RM Bank, said that the RMB will depreciate slightly".
For a while, news unfavorable to RMB came one after another, and people began to wonder how long RMB could last.
Speculators are rumored to have "RMB depreciation", which is Xiang Zhuang's sword dance, which is intended to be Pei Gong, and Hong Kong is Pei Gong.
The depreciation of the renminbi is bound to deal a heavy blow to Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system.
This information further stimulated Hong Kong's stock market and foreign exchange market, coupled with the weakening of the New York stock market, the daily decline once reached 299 points, and will continue to decline; Japan's new government is powerless, Hong Kong-listed companies have announced interim results, unfavorable news followed, Cathay Pacific lost money for the first time in more than 50 years, and Swire and HSBC's profits fell sharply; Rumours and rumours in the Hong Kong market have spooked investors. These have undoubtedly become a signal for international financial speculators to attack Hong Kong.
Since August 5, several European and American investment banks and hedge funds have simultaneously attacked the Hong Kong foreign exchange market, the stock market and the Hang Seng Index futures market, and frantically sold Hong Kong dollars and Hang Seng Index futures in Hong Kong. It is reported that its elite unit is the largest hedge fund in the United States under Wall Street speculator George Soros - Quantum Fund. On the 5th, more than 20 billion Hong Kong dollars were sold in the Hong Kong market; On the 6th, another more than 20 billion.
According to the plan of Soros and others, they first shorted the Hong Kong dollar in the foreign exchange market, forcing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to adopt the old trick of raising interest rates, and to suppress the stock market.
As interest rates rise, the stock market is bound to fall.
HSI futures will also fall in tandem, and then speculators can short HSI futures at a lower price in the futures market, and both the foreign exchange market and the stock market will make a profit.
The drunkard's intention is all in the Hang Seng Index Futures. Why?
Investors buy and sell HSI futures by trading the rise or fall of the Hang Seng Index on a future date (i.e. the delivery date of the contract), and the price of each HSI futures contract is the Hang Seng Index multiplied by HK$50 on that day. For every point drop in the Hang Seng Index, buyers of the futures contract lose HK$50 per contract, while sellers make HK$50 per contract. According to this calculation, if a financial speculator sells a Hang Seng Index futures expiring in August when the Hang Seng Index is 10,000 points, and then tries his best to knock the Hang Seng Index down to 6,000 points, the speculator can buy and close the contract and make a profit of 200,000 yuan.
If the speculator has 10,000 contracts in his hand, the return is 2 billion yuan. With such high returns, financial speculators have tried their best to suppress the Hong Kong stock market and the Hang Seng Index at any cost.
Friday, August 7th.
At four o'clock in the afternoon, Lin Zuhui looked at the Hang Seng Index on the computer and fixed it at 8,300 points.
"Awesome, this group!"
Lin Zuhui lamented that in recent times, these international speculators have created rumors about Lin Zuhui's companies, which has led to a sharp decline in the shares of Lin Zuhui's companies.
For example, international speculators spread rumors that "the New Era Group has invested heavily in shipping, just in time for the cold winter of shipping", "the recent large investment of the New Era Group is a wrong decision", and the interim results of Lin Zuhui's companies are indeed much worse.
In short, many investors have lost their mindset under the impact of countless rumors; The end result is that only a few people are still holding on to the stock sell-off.
Lin Zuhui turned off the computer, banged on the desktop, and thought about the problem.
At this time, his family office still has 30 billion yuan of funds left to buy, and at the same time, he has changed some ideas, that is, to use these 30 billion funds as ammunition to help the HKMA completely defeat international speculators on the Hang Seng Index Futures Index.
Because, only by making the international speculators suffer 'huge' losses, can Xiangjiang have the energy to develop the economy, otherwise it will really be afraid all the time. And Xiangjiang is Lin Zuhui's base camp, and he must have no hesitation.
Even, the more than 50 billion funds invested by Hengjin are also on standby at any time.
Based on some information, he inferred that the average index of the 'August Hang Seng Index' shorted by international speculators would probably be around 8,500 points.
So, as soon as the Hang Seng Index closes below 8,500 on August 28, they will make a profit.
The purpose of international speculators should be to suppress the Hang Seng Index below 5,000 points on August 28, and then make a profit of more than 175,000 yuan per futures index, and they probably have tens of thousands of futures contracts in their hands.
So, when will the Hong Kong government step in?
According to some experts, a fall in the Hang Seng Index to 7,000 points will be the minimum that the banking system can afford.
According to experts' analysis, if the stock market and property market fall further sharply, banks will inevitably sell off a large number of relevant collateral assets when they have no choice, thus setting off a vicious wave of sell-off in the stock market and the real estate market, and some small and medium-sized banks may even face the fate of bankruptcy because of too many bad debts. Once a bank begins to fail, Hong Kong's banking system is bound to suffer a fatal chain blow.
Therefore, the Hong Kong government must intervene at around 7,500 points, otherwise it will be dangerous.
Originally, because several of Lam's companies were in the market, the Hong Kong government may not have considered directly interfering with the stock market.
But now, when rumors spread in the market, Lin Zuhui's five companies also began to plummet, so they had to consider directly interfering with the market.
After all, this wave is menacing, and international speculators have obviously launched a 'great battle'.
Both externally and internally, the Xiangjiang stock market has been strongly suppressed.
In the evening of the same day, Mr. Dong held a press conference.
"Maintaining the exchange rate is the most unswerving policy of the special KU government."
"If anyone thinks we're going to waver, they're wrong! We absolutely have the ability and determination to maintain the linked exchange rate, and we will certainly be able to do so. Maintaining the linked exchange rate will ensure the long-term economic vitality and benefits of Hong Kong, and the short-term pain is acceptable. In the end, Mr. Dong was quite sad and said heavily.
Why is there short-term pain in maintaining the linked exchange rate?
The reason is that Joseph Yam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, has been jokingly called "any move" by the media circles, which means that whenever financial speculators are about to come to the market, the only move of the HKMA is to raise interest rates and increase the cost of financial speculation, so as to resist the sniping of speculators and maintain the linked exchange rate.
The side effects of this law are becoming more and more obvious, and it is too lethal to the stock market and property market. Because interest rates are higher, investors will tighten monetary policy, because loan interest rates are so high.
Without investors, the property market will be cold, investors holding shares will sell their shares, repay their loans, and no new investors will enter the market to buy shares.
The international giants, in the Central office building at this time, are also paying attention to the dynamics of things. Because it was a decisive battle, Soros also personally brought his assistants to Hong Kong to supervise the battle.
After seeing Mr. Dong's speech on TV, Soros raised his glass and said to the investment giants: "Gentlemen, this time we have shattered the confidence of Hong Kong, and the attitude of the new head of Hong Kong has shown that they even feel miserable." Well, those investors have become frightened birds, and as soon as we fire the guns, they will flee in a swarm! Ha ha! ”
A group of middle-aged and elderly whites laughed one after another, and anyone who saw that look couldn't help but hate it.
"In the first three snipers, if it weren't for the previous world's richest man's several listed companies, we would have broken through 7,000 points. But now, we have defeated Lin Zuhui, the richest man in the world belongs to our Wall Street tech giant - Bill Gates, then, this time we will also shrink his wealth by half! ”
"Haha"
Everyone laughed, at this time, Bill Gates was already the 'tech giant' launched by Wall Street and the pride of Americans; Therefore, for Lin Zuhui's five-year title of the world's richest man, they have long wanted to take it off.
"Lin Zuhui, he is just a big real estate developer, how can he be compared with a technology giant!"
"That's it! His god is also not worthy of his name, not enough because he happened to encounter our American Internet wave. ”
For a while, everyone shifted the topic to Lin Zuhui.
To be honest, Americans have always been obsessed with Lin Zuhui, the richest man in the world.
Time flashed by, and another six days passed.
Thursday, August 13.
On this day, the Hang Seng Index fell again by 188 points to the position of 7605 points.
Hong Kong's stock market is about to rain. At this time, "predictions" such as "RMB is about to depreciate" and "Hong Kong stocks will fall to 6,000 points" flooded the media, which made investors' confidence extremely shaken. If there is another bad news from Japan and Russia, the Hong Kong stock market is likely to burst into panic selling.
In the evening, the Hong Kong government held another press conference.
The Financial Secretary, Mr Tsang, said at a press conference: "Hong Kong is not an ATM. ”
The scene is very symbolic, with Tsang Yuen-kuen in front, Yam Zhigang and Hui Shiren on the left and right, slightly behind, forming a stable and solid triangle. Mr Yam is the Chairman of the HKMA and Mr Hui is the Secretary for Financial Services. They represent the determination of the Hong Kong government.
Donald Tsang's speech was full of eloquence: 'The authorities have a lot of resources to repel speculators in one fell swoop.' ’
A reporter asked: "The yen has fallen to a new low in eight years, will it put pressure on the Hong Kong dollar linked exchange rate?" Will the RMB be lost? ”
Mr. Zeng said: "The Chinese government has made it very clear that there is no need to change the RMB exchange rate. In the short term, there will be no pressure on the RMB to depreciate. But the uncertainty of the yen is a fact, we have known it for a long time, so there is no need to panic. ”
A reporter asked: If hedge funds all over the world come to work against the Hong Kong government, will the Hong Kong government still have confidence? ”
Ren Zhigang smiled: "We are very welcome!" ”
"We have no choice! ”
Following.
Lin Zuhui came to the family office and summoned the investment manager Li Hao to his office.
"Today's financial management situation requires market intervention, so the trading volume must be very large. You will take out 10 billion yuan of funds to help the Hong Kong government! ”
Li Hao was originally from Xiangjiang, so he naturally said excitedly: "Yes!" Yesterday, when I read the news of the Hong Kong government's meeting, I knew that the HKMA would definitely use its foreign exchange reserves to enter the market, and it seems that the Hong Kong government intends to pull the Hang Seng Index above 8,500 this month. ”
Lin Zuhui said: "I hope that the Hong Kong government will give a little force, and it is best to hit international speculators hard, pull the Hang Seng Index to 9,500 points, and completely end this economic farce." In the morning, let's make sure that the HKMA enters the market. ”
Yes, indeed a farce!
In Lin Zuhui's view, if he uses all his strength, international speculators will lose their bottoms.
In the past month, Lin Zuhui and his company have rarely released any 'good news', which is his strategy - to lure the enemy deeper.
He also has a cash flow of more than HK$80 billion, and at the same time, the cash flow of many companies can also be used as a purchase of blue chip stocks.
Li Hao nodded and said, "Okay." Indeed, if the HKMA does not sell, our $30 billion will only be able to resist a little. ”
Lin Zuhui said: "The government will not not take action, but they will not think that I will take action!" After saying that, I couldn't help but smile a little.
Li Hao also laughed, he was a vice president of Hengjin Investment, so he naturally knew that the boss still had hidden strength. It's just that if the Hong Kong government doesn't make a move, there is no point in the boss buying it on a large scale, after all, the Hong Kong stock market can't just play with the boss.
In the morning of the same day.
The Hong Kong government suddenly took action, using the Exchange Fund and the Land Fund to enter the stock market and the Hang Seng Index futures market at the same time.
In the afternoon of the same day.
The tens of billions of funds of the Lin family office began to be bought through various channels, which instantly ignited the enthusiasm of the market.
Of course, at this time, Lin Zuhui has multiple market-making channels in Xiangjiang, so it is difficult to know for sure that he made a move.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
An assistant hurriedly came to the office of any recruit and said: "Mr. Ren, there are suddenly a large number of buy orders in the market, not our funds!" ”
Any move was stunned and said, "How much is the bill?" ”
In his opinion, private power can never be compared with the government, and now Xiangjiang is even more unlikely to have a 'gang buying', after all, the major chaebols in Xiangjiang are difficult to protect themselves, except for that one still has some spare strength.
The assistant said: "It's very large, billions of dollars an hour, and the market is made from Peregrine, Octopus Securities and other channels. ”
He stood up violently, a flash of surprise on his face.
"I see! I said why is that person so low-key in the past month, and his company has not paid any attention to the rumors outside, is it trying to lure the enemy in? ”
His assistant was not stupid and immediately understood.
"Could it be that he wants to buy the bottom, so he deliberately sells the flaws?"
Ren Zhao glanced at the assistant, as a government official, it is normal to have some prejudice against these chaebols.
"It doesn't matter! As long as you are long, you are our allies! What's more, no matter how rich he is, how dare he resist those international speculators alone if he is not sure that the Hong Kong government will enter the market! ”
"That's right, maybe he's been waiting to see the attitude of the Hong Kong government!"
"It's natural, in fact, a lot of people are waiting and watching, and once we enter the market, they will become our followers. Anyway, I'm going to visit that one tonight, and I'm good at knowing. You go and make an appointment for me, and watch your words and deeds, that is not someone you can offend. ”
"Yes, I see!"
Four o'clock in the afternoon.
The Hang Seng Index closed with a rebound of more than 660 points throughout the day, and the Hang Seng Index climbed to 8,266 points, an increase of more than 8.8%.
Furama Hotel.
In the box, Lin Zuhui and any trick got together.
"Thank you Mr. Ren for coming to have dinner with me when he is so busy!" Lin Zuhui quipped.
Either move is actually very young, but it has black and white hair, thin cheeks, and a pair of silver-colored metal-rimmed glasses, which looks a little 'weird'. Although he received a lot of positive comments from many business and politicians, he was in fact a very controversial chairman of the HKMA, and many policies and management were widely questioned.
"Mr. Lin laughed, you are a busy person, and it is my honor to have dinner with you!"
"You're welcome!"
After the two sat down, they enjoyed food and wine, and did not talk about business for the first time, but chatted for a while.
Halfway through the dinner, he said, "How does Mr. Lin see the future trend of the Xiangjiang stock market?" ”
Lin Zuhui said with a smile: "As far as I know, the government has intervened, so I am naturally very optimistic, this month the Hang Seng Index will go in a V-shape, there must be no problem, that group of international speculators should also return, and Xiangjiang should also concentrate on recovering the economy." ”
Ren Zhao nodded and said: "At this point, Mr. Lin, please rest assured, our Xiangjiang government has the obligation to maintain the stability of the financial market, so please also rest assured that you are investing!" ”
In addition to Lin Zuhui, the masterminds of many consortiums have communicated with the Hong Kong government, of course, hoping that the Hong Kong government will stabilize the financial market; Everyone has the same mentality, if the Hong Kong government can't maintain the financial market, then we can only invest our funds overseas in the future.
"I have always been relieved, after all, we have the world's third-largest foreign exchange reserves, and now we have the mainland government as a guarantee."
Seeing that Lin Zuhui said it well, he finally decided to get straight to the point and said: "Mr. Lin, I want to ask, today's stock market has increased by nearly 10 billion yuan, which is not our Hong Kong government's funds, but from several securities companies under you." If I'm not guessing, you're probably buying big, right? ”
Lin Zuhui said with a smile: "Before answering this question, I would like to ask Mr. Ren, if I buy large, will your determination be reduced?" ”
One move immediately said: "Of course not, our Hong Kong government has the obligation to win this battle!" ”
Lin Zuhui nodded and said: "I did buy a lot of blue chip stocks, because I think I can still do it for the Hong Kong government." To be honest, this farce should be over, otherwise the Xiangjiang government has the energy to restore the economy! ”
Ren Zhao immediately said: "Thanks to Mr. Lin for joining, I believe we will definitely be able to end the battle this month!" ”
The two then had a simple meal and hurriedly ended the meal, after all, everyone was very busy, at this time.
The following week.
On August 17, the global stock market plummeted, and it happened that Monday was the victory day of the Anti-Japanese War, and Hong Kong was closed, avoiding the shock wave;
On 18 August, the US stock market had recovered sharply, the yen had also begun to stabilize, and stock markets across Asia had rebounded across the board. This day was the first trading day after the public holiday, the Hong Kong government retained its strength, the Hang Seng Index fluctuated in a narrow range, and the market fell slightly by 14 points at the end of the day, closing at 8252 points;
On August 19, the Hong Kong Government Exchange Fund continued to enter the market, taking short positions, and the index climbed 412 points to close at 8,664 points;
On August 20, the market encountered initial resistance at a high of 8,900 points, while the Hong Kong government's buying also converged slightly, and the index closed at 8,784, up 120 points;
On 21 August, the Exchange Fund did not enter the market actively, and the eight major foreign investors also joined hands in the tail market, causing the futures index to leak 200 points in the tail market, and the index softened on the same day, closing at 8569, down 215 points;
(End of chapter)