Why are Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong necessarily more threatening than Luo Rucai and Ma Shouying?

When he first heard this question, Shen Shuren's first reaction was that he didn't really want to answer.

In his previous life, as a senior scholar of political philosophy and diplomatic theory, Shen Shuren knew very well that history is composed of macro necessity and micro contingency.

It's a bit like quantum mechanics: at the microscopic level, where each photon will fall after passing through a double slit is really random, and you can't predict it at all.

But no matter how random each photon and quantum is, the final macroscopic world must conform to the macroscopic laws of physics. After hundreds of millions of photons pass through the double slit, they must form interference fringes macroscopically.

At a certain stage in the development of history, such as the end of the Ming Dynasty, there will definitely be a violent iteration of the regime, and the various social contradictions of land annexation will definitely have to be vented earth-shattering.

Everyone knows where the tuyere and opportunities are, but in the end, there is still a very big randomness to which individual will run out.

To a large extent, this is what Ma Zhe meant when he said the inevitability and twists and turns of history, so historical materialism requires that no personality cult be allowed.

History is created by the people as a whole, and heroes just follow the trend of the times and enter the fields and teams that cater to the wind. But whoever survives to sit in that position, and who happens to randomly get to the brightest interference stripe, is at least ninety percent lucky.

Now, Shen Shuren has personally entered the game and stirred up so many butterfly effects, even if Chongzhen still has to die in the end, will he definitely die at the hands of Li Zicheng or Zhang Xianzhong?

Historically, Li Zicheng was after joining forces with Luo Rucai and Ma Shouying, and suddenly attacked and killed Luo and Ma with a poisonous hand, and merged their people.

Shen Shuren ate the supper in front of him, thought about this question for a long time, and finally gave a fair answer.

"Xiaguan is a bit of a family, and Fang Futai listens to it in vain." Shen Shuren sorted out his thoughts and told the story,

"I thought that when it came to killing people and plundering land, it was true that the four thieves were among the two thieves. If it is a battle array, swords and guns without eyes, anyone may die at the hands of officials and soldiers, and those who survive will naturally take the opportunity to annex the old departments of their comrades-in-arms.

However, if we don't look at the battle array, look at the people's hearts, manipulate orthodoxy, and mediate and induce rebellion, then Zhang Xianzhong and Li Zicheng have advantages that Luo Rucai and Ma Shouying do not have. Therefore, in the military, the four people were tied, and in terms of winning over people, Zhang and Li won. ”

Shen Shuren's tone was very confident, and he was determined, with a sense of vigor.

Fang Kongzhi listened to his words, and a wave of trust inexplicably rose.

That kind of feeling, people who don't really believe that what they say is the truth will not be so confident.

"The virtuous nephew is very confident in his own high opinions, why do you dare to be so straightforward? Since you want to talk about the ability to win over people, then Luo Rucai is cunning and cooperative, and can forbear others with weakness and wrongdoing, no less than Cao Cao, isn't it even worse than Zhang and Li? Doctors all over the world think so, why is the virtuous nephew maverick? ”

Fang Kongzhi's cognition is really not nonsense.

In the mainstream cognition of scholars and doctors at the end of the Ming Dynasty, they all felt that among the thieves, if they could win the hearts of the civil and military and unite the hearts of the talented, Luo Rucai was the first.

Luo Rucai has operated several times, and he can be almost as subtle as Cao Cao's kind of "don't read the letters of his subordinates who have fornication with Yuan Shao and burn them", and his nickname Cao Cao is not called in vain.

Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong and the like have no strategy to win people's hearts to this extent.

However, Shen Shuren immediately pointed out the one-sidedness of this view: "With all due respect, this view is just the opinion of the literati. Literati speculate on the art of war and strategy, and they like to look at it from the perspective of the literati.

The hearts of those who are worth winning in their eyes are only the hearts of those who have civil and military talents. As for the incompetent heart, the civil officials of the Manchu Dynasty didn't take it seriously at all-

And Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong are much more powerful than Luo Rucai in terms of encircling Qianshou. Luo Rucai's little cleverness does not have the blessing of Cao and Mang's bloodline identity in history. One positive and one negative, one eliminates the other, and only then did I make the inference I just made. ”

"Oh? I want to hear about it! Fang Kongzhi's expression became completely solemn at this time.

Shen Shuren discussed the matter in such detail, and analyzed it one by one, no matter how you look at it, you are very sure. If it weren't for the people who watched the fire, they would never dare to speak like this.

Shen Shuren talked in depth: "Since ancient times, thieves can't succeed because they can't fight? Of course not! As long as the thieves have been sharpened in the military, their combat skills and tactics are absolutely no better than those of the officials and armies of all dynasties, and their morale is still victorious, after all, in the last years of the dynasty, the morale of the officers and soldiers is often low.

But since the Qin Dynasty, thousands and eight hundred years, there have been no thieves who have been able to establish a dynasty for a long time, why? It's because the thieves don't know how to plan orthodoxy. Since Chen Sheng and Wu Guang shouted 'Princely generals, Ning has a kind of', although he was happy when he shouted, it also left a drawback:

The prince has no seed, and he is also seedless. Therefore, after Chen Sheng raised troops to conquer Chudi, he released his generals Wuchen to attack Zhaodi, Wuchen got Zhao and set up the king of Zhao, and Wuchen sent his generals Han Guang to attack Yandi, and Han Guang got Yandi and proclaimed himself King of Yan.

Chen Sheng sent Zhou Shi to slightly attack Wei, although Zhou Shi did not call himself the King of Wei, but it was not necessarily that he didn't want to, but after he read the lessons of Wuchen and Han Guang, he finally understood that 'the emperor will Xiangning have a kind of' is a double-edged sword, making it easier for you to oppose others, and it also makes it easier for your subordinates to oppose you. Only then did he change his mind and go back to support Wei Ji, a descendant of King Wei, as king.

Chen Sheng's final death, was he defeated by Zhang Han militarily? Not necessarily! Assuming that the soldiers of Wuchen, Han Guang, and Zhou Shi were still under Chen Sheng's orders, how sure could Zhang Han be that he would defeat the united rebel coalition?

Fan Zeng persuaded Xiang Liang to use this, Liu Bang to respect Emperor Yi with this, and Taizu to respect King Xiaoming with this, all of them were orthodox, so that they could start from poverty and win the world and draw a clear line with the bandits.

At the end of the Western Han Dynasty, there were green forests and red eyebrows, and warlords from all walks of life learned the lesson of Chen Sheng, and from then on they did not dare to call the emperor Xiangning a kind of thing, and only dared to find a puppet surnamed Liu, in order to seek orthodoxy, so that his subordinates did not dare to oppose themselves.

In the following thousand years, all the thieves who raised troops in the usual way, as long as they did not remember Chen Sheng's lessons and did not seek orthodoxy, were all destroyed due to civil strife, without exception. How similar is Huangchao at the end of the Tang Dynasty to Chen Sheng at the end of the Qin Dynasty?

Huang Chao went further militarily and captured Chang'an, but he didn't care about orthodoxy, and in the end he was betrayed by his subordinate Zhu Wen to join Tang, and Zhu Wen had orthodoxy and combat power to extinguish it.

In today's situation, everyone does not pay attention to orthodoxy, and Luo Rucai's generation, even if Cao Cao is cunning, but there is no birth of Cao Cao, and they can't afford to build orthodoxy, so they can't be afraid.

Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong are not, although they are not orthodox and have a humble background, they have found another way and taken the road of another type of thieves in history, so I think that regardless of military affairs, Li and Zhang are even more terrifying! ”

When Fang Kongzhi heard this, he was completely shocked.

This Shen Shu person, with a reading eye, is different from each other, and can analyze problems so widely.

In fact, if some fans of the later generations of online articles Qin saw this paragraph, they would probably be shocked - how many stalls in later generations frantically hyped conspiracy theories, saying that Chen Sheng and Wu Guang were the restoration of the nobles of the Six Kingdoms, the old and the young of the Six Kingdoms were dissatisfied with Qin, and it was not because of Qin's tyranny......

!

The nobles of the Six Kingdoms are simply the first wave of blood lessons of Chen Sheng and Wu Guang, and after discovering that "princes have no seeds", they will also be "seedless", and traitors like Wuchen and Han Guang will appear. Then at the beginning of the Zhou market, because he was afraid that his subordinates would turn against him, he had to invite the descendants of the Six Kingdoms out.

In the 20th century, because modern history textbooks wanted to emphasize the progressive significance of "no seed", the role of the military minister Han Guang was cut out of context, which gave the soil for conspiracy theory propaganda in the Six Kingdoms.

Shen Shuren is well versed in political philosophy and theory, and after he returned to the Ming Dynasty, the reason why he made up his mind to "steal" instead of directly overthrowing the Ming Dynasty from the beginning was also thinking about this layer -

If the force is strong enough, he can be successful in the upper position, and others can oppose him. What happens when you die? II?

If he has real skills, he can rely on strategy and martial arts to win, and that's it.

If he needed to rely on technology to win, it would be easier for him to die - because after he unified China, the technologies he invented were available in all regions of China.

At that time, if the fence is not firmly rooted, by his son's generation, some provinces outside can use the weapons and technology of the same era as the center controlled by his son to make trouble, or will he die?

Wasn't that how the Qin Dynasty died? When Qin was still Qin, bows and crossbows may have technical advantages over the six countries, and there were also advantages in the military service system, reward and punishment mobilization system.

However, after having the whole country, the land of the six countries was leveled with Qin in terms of weapons and technology, and the institutional advantages were also leveled, and the whole country used advanced systems. The six countries still want to oppose you, that is, five or six times the scale of the volume to fight back.

So when Shen Shuren was in his previous life, he always felt very ridiculous: how did a group of people who had no other power and scheming skills and relied on climbing technology to win the battle, have the courage to completely destroy the legitimacy, and then establish a new dynasty with empty words? (After destroying the legitimacy, there is still a bit of discussability about the politics of the people's pigs, and here we only discuss the rebuilding of the dynasty without orthodoxy)

When you are unified and die, these technologies and systems are all available in all provinces of the country, and you will not bother to run orthodoxy at that time, and you still expect your son to be able to control the market?

It's all right to die. If the EQ of the founding generation is relatively low, it is possible to die in a lifetime.

Therefore, the Shen Shu people have never worried that the thieves without legitimacy can really establish a dynasty, they can destroy the country at most, but they cannot establish a country. You can destroy the former dynasty militarily, but you can't keep your karma.

Li Shimin said that "it is difficult to start a business, and it is even more difficult to keep a business", starting a business is about overturning the previous dynasty with a military victory, and keeping a business is to establish one's own orthodoxy and one's own legitimacy of rule.

Let the people of the world believe that "rebellion can only succeed in special times and special circumstances, and the current emperor is the last successful person to obtain the mandate of heaven, and this is the end of it." Li Shimin spent the rest of his life working hard for the words "so far" and defeated the evil thoughts of people all over the world, "I can do it too".

Therefore, I feel that the thieves can't succeed, this is not because Shen Shuren looks down on Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong. Unless he met Liu Bang, who was authorized by Emperor Yi, or Zhu Yuanzhang, who was inherited by King Xiaoming.

There is no "Emperor Yi" and no "King Xiaoming", and Liu Bang and Zhu Yuanzhang alone are not good!

……

Fang Kongzhi was shocked for a long time, and roughly understood this layer of Dao ideals, but he still didn't understand how Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong were more dangerous than Luo Rucai, so he had to continue to ask shamelessly, he had to figure out the true essence of the Heavenly Dao inside.

Shen Shuren had no choice but to continue to analyze: "The reason why Li Zicheng, Zhang Xianzhong and others are more threatening is because they do not belong to those world-class thieves in history, but are more like Zhang Jiao, Wudou Rice, White Lotus and the like. ”

Fang Kongzhi was stunned for a moment, and immediately retorted: "Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong didn't engage in any heresy!" ”

Shen Shuren: "They really didn't do it, so we just said 'similar', not exactly the same, but the pros and cons are the same."

Futai, please listen quietly to the analysis of the lower officials: Since Chen Sheng and Lulin Chimei, the thieves in the world know that if there is no orthodoxy, you can't win the world, and if you don't have orthodoxy, you will be counterattacked by your subordinates, so naturally some people want to improve all this.

Zhang Jiao at the end of the Han Dynasty was the earliest tester of this route, why did Zhang Jiao engage in Taiping Road? Because after there is the Tao, there will be immortal masters, there will be people who are ordered by heaven, and with the blessing of heaven's will, there will also be orthodoxy. His subordinates can only obey his orders and organize themselves with ghosts and gods.

The apostles of ghosts and gods can't betray the immortal master like Wuchen and Han Guang betrayed Chen Sheng, and the internal unity of the Shinto soldiers and horses is stronger than the thieves.

And I don't know if you have noticed Lord Futai, since ancient times, the immortal masters who founded Shinto, became their own religion, and have been carried forward by a certain amount of political power, all have a characteristic, that is, they have no children and no grandchildren.

The Buddha of the Buddhist family had a son, but his son became a monk and followed the practice, so the Buddha had no grandchildren. The Western Hongyi people have Nestorian religion, and their ancestors were also killed and martyred, and they have no heirs. On the side of the black-clothed eater, there is only a son-in-law, and there is no son-in-law.

The ancestor of the founding path has no heirs, and one of the biggest advantages is that everyone is willing to contribute to their promotion cause, and everyone has a head start, thinking that I have contributed the most to this cause, and finally the master may pass on the mantle to me.

Even today, those disciples in the Buddhist temple and Taoist hall have filial piety to the abbot, abbot, and the master, and even more so than the father-son affection of the layman, why? Because they know that the abbot presides over the abbot and cuts off the children and grandchildren.

If they can be the one who serves the master the best among all the disciples, the entire temple and temple will be able to pass on to him in the future! Everyone collects firewood, the flame is exalted, everyone uses their lives, and the foundation is self-prospering!

When Zhang Jiao created the Taiping Dao, there were 36 parties in the world, more than 400,000 people, and everyone respected the great sage and good teacher, and did not openly stand on their own, so that once the great sage and good teacher died of illness or was critically ill, they could get the inheritance of the Heavenly Dao and at least call one of the 'divine envoys' first.

And how many times has this kind of thing happened over and over again in the thousands and four hundred years since then? Why did the dynasties ban the evil way and crack down on the white lotus more ruthlessly than the thieves? Because the imperial court also knows that this kind of thing is more dangerous than a thief.

It's a pity that the imperial court only sees the surface, but not the inside - the danger of the evil way, the essence is not the danger of the evil way itself, but the model of 'inheritance of master and apprentice, cutting off children and grandchildren', the temptation of the people below is too deep, and everyone uses their lives!

Now Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong, named the thief, are actually a heavenly eunuch, a wife in the early years, but later injured and sick, Li Zicheng's wife Xing also ran away with his general Gao Jie.

These two people also widely accepted their righteous sons, and their subordinates used their lives to 'If they help King Chuang and the Eight Kings to conquer the world, the two will have no children in the future, and they will not be able to inherit after all, so they have to choose the one with the highest merit among the generals to share the world, or accept them as righteous sons'?

In contrast, although Luo Rucai is good at Cao Cao, he is also as lustful as Cao Cao, with dozens of wives and concubines, and countless daughters overnight.

In the future, if he wants to plot to assassinate Li Zicheng, Li Zicheng's subordinates may not rebel. But if Li Zicheng wanted to assassinate him and ask Luo Rucai's subordinates to rebel, it would be much easier. In the final analysis, if a person with a humble status wants to succeed, he can't borrow the orthodoxy of Emperor Yi and King Xiaoming, and the final key is to cut off his children and grandchildren! Give more thoughts to the people around you and work together! ”

The truth that Shen Shuren said was not only correct until the end of the Ming Dynasty, but it will be repeated in history in the future.

Didn't the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom in the Qing Dynasty also learn the lessons of the thieves at the end of the Ming Dynasty? Therefore, knowing that it is necessary to prevent the problem of "you can destroy the previous dynasty, but you cannot build the country by yourself", you have embarked on the old road of building a country by faith.

Hong Xiuquan proclaimed himself the king of heaven and established an oracle system, so no one dared to oppose him openly. However, people who call themselves "possessed by the Heavenly Father" like Zhang Jiaoshi's "divine envoy" have been repeatedly banned.

Even in the 2020s, before the Shenshu people crossed over, the Shenshu people saw Bitcoin and felt that this thing was similar to the existence of all faith-based countries in history-

In the monetary system, it is equivalent to "the issuing unit abolishes the centralized management authority", and uses technical means to wave the back door of its own banknote printing from the palace.

Tell you how many coins you can get from now on, depending on how much you contribute to the system, and no one can tamper with the widely accepted distributed ledger.

Philosophically, it is a logic to cut off children and grandchildren from the founding prophets of the Buddha and other sects, in exchange for the disciples to export filial piety with confidence.

The boss has no heirs, and it's all yours for a good job, so don't you fight the chicken? Sun Kewang Li Dingguo, you don't have to die?

……

After hearing this analysis, Fang Kongzhi was shocked to the point that he couldn't believe it at all.

But reason also told him that this insight was definitely very profound, and if it was really accurate, it was enough to be called an insight into the origin of the Heavenly Dao.

The twenty-one-year-old Daotai in front of him definitely has the talent of Wenqu Xing, is it really God who came down from heaven to save Daming?

Although Shen Shuren's official position was lower than his, he saw the problem so thoroughly that he didn't dare to judge the other party on the basis of his status.

Of course, all this is worth waiting and seeing. Fang Kongzhi decided to keep his mouth shut.

He wanted to see that after this year's wave of bloody battles, there would inevitably be a few thieves who would leave, and when the time came, if Li Zicheng, Zhang Xianzhong, Luo Rucai, and Ma Shouying exited, it would really be like Shen Shuren's deduction......

That's not to say! Even if Shen Shuren is younger than him, he plans to bow his head and worship! This is the deduction ability of a godman, and Zhang Liang Zhuge Liang may not be able to pass this!

Perhaps, in a few months, we will find out.

In these words, some parts are a little rebellious, but you can also pinch the head and remove the tail, remove the overly sensitive parts, and remind Yang Ge Lao of the rest.

Fang Kongzhi felt that if Shen Shuren's insights could make some contributions to the focus and differentiation of Yang Gelao's work in the next few months. Then, Elder Yang Ge should also use all his political resources, and he must find a way to push this terrifying young man to a high position as soon as possible!

People who see the contradictions so thoroughly have real power, and they can be clear! It's for the world!

Of course, everything depends on the acceptance results, and whether it is as expected by Shen Shuren after the war!

"The virtuous nephew has extraordinary knowledge, and the old man thinks that he can see the way of heaven by studying "Zhou Yi" intensively. But I don't want to learn all my life, refute the impurity, and see things is not as clever as the virtuous nephew, and hit the source.

The old man really admires! This time, I will do my best to help my nephew break the thief, and wait and see, after these two congratulations are broken, who will be the remnants! In the recent defense arrangements, the old man also listened to the virtuous nephew first, and made every effort to guard against the most terrible Zhang Xianzhong, as for Luo Rucai, when the troops were really insufficient, the old man could only let it go. ”

Fang Kongzhi left with great shock and admiration, and no one could overhear the conversation between him and Shen Shuren during the whole process. But the master's admiration also fell in the eyes of his family and staff.

The next day, up and down the governor's yamen, they all knew that the young subordinate who came to see the master last night, the Taoist master who was only in his early twenties, definitely had the ability to see heaven and earth, and was amazing.

And Shen Shuren didn't care what others thought of him.

He was just very happy to see the escort officers sent out by Fang Kongzhi to deliver the letter, and they also heard that Lord Futai attached great importance to Shen Bingbei, so he must go all out to prepare for Shen's army.

As for the opinions of other passers-by, they don't deserve to be cared about by Shen Shuren at all.

Because he was busy last night and didn't sleep until ugly, his energy was really low, and he rode back to Xiaogan after half of the morning.

The people of the governor's yamen treated him respectfully, and made food for all his entourage on the road, and sent him out of the city.

Shen Shuren himself was treated particularly well, and the female roll of the governor's yamen got up in the early morning, made him some mutton-filled shortbread with her own hands, boiled a pot of medicinal soup for health and refreshment, and poured it into a string of bamboo tubes after cooling it in advance, so that he could open a tube every half a day on the road and throw it away after drinking.

Shen Shuren was ashamed of it, and thanked him politely, and the maid of the governor's yamen only said that she admired Shen Da's talent and learning, and was able to convince his master, so he deserved this courtesy, and had no other intentions.

After more than two days of hurrying, on April 22, Shen Shuren finally returned to the Xiaogan army, and he also told his generals about the time when he had found two reinforcements and when they would arrive, and the army's morale was greatly boosted.

——

PS: I'm sorry, I know it's not good to be halfway to war.

But there are some words that really need to be calculated and deduced before the decisive battle. After this wave of months is over, the mystery is revealed, and it will be impossible to show that the protagonist is like a god at the strategic level.

Apologies to readers who don't like to read the logical analysis of political philosophy.

Today, 11,000 words, an extra 5,000 words have been given, which can be regarded as passing the part involving political philosophy in one go, and it can be regarded as compensating everyone.