Chapter 429: Industry Recession
"The highest market value of Crystal Entertainment exceeded 80 billion!" --- reported by Sohu Entertainment
"Crystal Entertainment's market value is 71.8 billion yuan!" --- Wangyi Entertainment
"The market value of Crystal Entertainment surpasses that of Wanda Films, becoming the media and film and television company with the highest market value!" --New Wolf Entertainment
……
As a well-known film and television company in the industry, Crystal Entertainment has attracted much attention with its brilliant achievements in successive hits and box office miracles.
In 2016, when the industry was in recession, although the performance of Crystal Entertainment was not as explosive as last year, it still frequently excelled in movies and TV series.
In terms of movies, although the box office of "To Youth 2" is 337 million, "A Smile is Alluring" is 275 million, and "Donkey Gets Water" is 173 million, which is really incomparable with 2015.
But fortunately, "Big Fish and Begonia" is 563 million, "Passing by Your World" is 813 million, and more importantly, "Touching the Golden Captain" won a box office of 2.789 billion yuan.
In terms of TV series, "Dear Translator" won the annual ratings championship, and "A Smile is Alluring" and "Ode to Joy" also both broke 2%.
In terms of online dramas, "Residual Sin", "Exquisite Ancient City" and "Seven Star Lu Palace" also continue to refresh the on-demand record of online dramas.
In the case of poor performance of other major film and television companies and continuous decline in stock prices, it has become the only scenery company in the industry that has bucked the trend.
In the words of Uncle Ben, the scenery is unique here!
Therefore, even if the entire industry environment has regressed more than the explosive 2015, it is still difficult to stop the favor of capital and netizens for Crystal Entertainment.
Therefore, after the opening of Crystal Entertainment, the stock price has been rising, reaching the highest peak of 81.5 billion yuan, and finally stabilizing at 71.8 billion yuan!
The market value of 71.8 billion yuan also exceeds that of Wanda Films, which is 67.5 billion, becoming the highest film and television media company at present.
As for Huayi, which had unlimited scenery and clamored to break the market value of 100 billion yuan, the current market value is only 30.8 billion yuan, and it has fallen to the fourth place in the private sector.
As soon as Crystal Entertainment was listed, it became the media company with the highest market capitalization, in addition to its own stable performance, it also relied on its peers and the general environment.
The box office of mainland films in 2016 can be said to have ended in a period of disappointment, completely missing the target of 60 billion yuan set at the beginning of the year.
In 2016, the total box office of the national film was 45.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.73%, while in the same period in 2015, the box office growth rate was 48%!
At the same time, the number of screens in Huaxia has increased to 41,179, which has surpassed the 40,759 in the United States and become the first in the world!
However, Huaxia's single-screen box office was 1.25 million yuan, down more than 20% from the single-screen box office of 1.59 million yuan in 2015.
In 2015, the annual box office growth rate was as high as 48%, compared with 2016, the growth rate fell seriously.
In 2016, the box office champions of domestic films and imported films were "Mermaid" and "Zootopia" respectively.
Among the top 10 films at the box office, the total box office totaled 13.01 billion yuan, which was significantly lower than the total box office of the top ten films in 2015 of 15.265 billion yuan.
There were 7 films with a box office of more than 1.3 billion yuan in 2015, compared with only 4 in 2016.
In 2016, the domestic film box office basically showed a trend of high opening and low walking, and in the first quarter, the film market developed rapidly, and the Spring Festival stalls continued to exert force.
Four of the top 10 movies at the annual box office are concentrated in the Spring Festival stalls, namely "The Mermaid", "Journey to the West: Monkey King Three Fights the White Bone Spirit", "Macau Fengyun 3" and "Kung Fu Panda 3".
And the box office of these four films has exceeded 1 billion yuan.
Among them, "Mermaid" has set a number of records, becoming the champion in the history of Chinese film box office, breaking the previous box office record of "Monster Hunt".
Since then, the summer file, the National Day file, and even the Chinese New Year file, except for one "Touching the Golden School Captain", have all encountered Waterloo.
In 2016, the film market bid farewell to the era of savage growth, on the one hand, the ticket supplement war in previous years has decreased, on the other hand, the audience's viewing level has improved, and the quality of movies has declined.
In the industry, the A-share film and television sector can be said to be the main line of the bull market in 2015, but in 2016, the style changed abruptly, and various expectations were disappointed.
With the changes in the market environment, film and television stocks have become the hardest hit area of the A-share decline in 2016.
In the first half of 2016, among the 28 Shenwan first-class industries, the performance of the media industry index ranked first, with a half-year decline of 23.44%, and film and television were the worst performing sub-industries.
Among the listed companies in the film and television category, the stock prices of leading companies in sub-industries, including Wanda Cinema Line, Guangxian Media, and Huayi Brothers, have all declined.
As of December 28, 2016, Huayi Brothers fell from more than 19 yuan at the beginning of the year to 11 yuan, down 46.86%, and Guangguang Media fell from 13.6 yuan at the beginning of the year to 9.71 yuan, down 35.7%.
Against the backdrop of sluggish box office growth, the share price of Wanda Cinemas, which has been relying on box office sharing as its main source of income, finally closed at 54.07 yuan on the last trading day of 2016.
This is exactly 50% lower than the closing price of 108 yuan on the first trading day of the year.
After Huaxia Film went on the market, it fell from a maximum of 40.28 yuan all the way to 22.99 yuan.
In addition, New Culture fell by more than 55.27%, and CTI Film and Television fell by 38.03%.
In addition, an industry background is that mergers and acquisitions are blocked, and capital hot money is withdrawn!
In 2015, the story of many celebrities who became rich overnight through mergers and acquisitions was widely circulated, but in 2016, the road to star asset securitization was blocked.
However, this does not change the hot situation of mergers and acquisitions in the film and television industry.
In 2016, there were 278 mergers and acquisitions of listed media companies, with an average of one merger and acquisition every 32 hours.
In the fierce competition of horse racing, cinema mergers and acquisitions are more eye-catching.
In the first six months of 2016, Ahri invested about 2.1 billion yuan in Emperor Cinema and Bernard Films, and in August, it spent another 100 million yuan to acquire an 80% stake in Hangzhou Star Cinema.
In September, Perfect World acquired Jindian Group for a transaction of 1.353 billion yuan, acquiring 217 theaters under its umbrella.
In October, the first investment after the IPO of China Film was the acquisition of 70% of the shares of Dalian Huachen, with a purchase price of 553 million yuan.
In 2016, there were 18 failed acquisitions in the film and television industry, including industry giants such as Lay's and Wanda Cinemas, and the industry generally believes that the main reason for the failure is the tightening of regulatory policies.
On May 11, 2016, Caixin reported that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) would suspend the cross-border private placement of listed companies, including Internet finance, games, film and television, and VR.
Although the SFC clarified the rumors, the subsequent market behavior confirmed the regulator's "one case, one discussion" attitude.
On July 14, 2016, the Peng Stock Exchange proposed to focus on supervising the information disclosure of film and television companies on the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) and strictly controlling the securitization of celebrities.
Subsequently, in the second half of 2016, mergers and acquisitions in the film and television industry were vetoed by regulators one after another.
On August 1, Wanda Cinema Line issued an announcement that it planned to suspend the major asset restructuring injected into Wanda Film and Television.
Higher valuations and high performance commitments may be the reasons for the suspension of the Wanda Cinema restructuring.
It is understood that Wanda Film and Television promised in the restructuring announcement that the promised net profit in the next three years will not be less than 1.3 billion yuan, 1.66 billion yuan and 2.138 billion yuan respectively.
In addition, Tangde Film and Television's attempt to reorganize and merge Fan Bingbing's new company was blocked.
Baofeng Technology gave up 1.08 billion yuan to acquire 60% of the shares of Straw Bear Pictures.
Gongda Electroacoustics gave up 4.12 billion yuan and acquired 100% of Spring Fusion and Lehua Culture.
Imperial Capital Culture gave up 500 million yuan to merge and acquire the Convergence Film Federation.
Behind these aborted mergers and acquisitions, the shadow of the regulator can be seen.
As shown in the Gongda electroacoustic announcement
When the company acquired Lehua Entertainment, the CSRC raised 44 questions, most of which were related to the company's cross-border acquisition targets and transaction parties.
After the announcement of Sanqi Mutual Entertainment's merger and acquisition of Zhonghui Film and Television and the restructuring of the pre-eucalyptic period, the China Securities Regulatory Commission also issued a letter of inquiry, raising 15 questions about its 2.5 billion yuan acquisition of three companies.
Among them, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment is required to explain the reasonableness of part of the fundraising to be invested in the expansion of Zhonghui Film and Television IP Resource Library and film and television drama production projects.
Behind the successive rejection of mergers and acquisitions in the film and television cultural industry is the withdrawal of capital hot money.
Investing in the film and television industry requires special familiarity with the operation of the industry, and in the hottest year of 2015, many private equity companies have suffered losses in the investment process of the film and television industry.
In 2016, with the strict supervision of the film and television industry by the regulators, many funds were reluctant to invest in film and television.
In addition, the industry bubble is too large, and the regulator is also controlling it.
The industry bubble is too big, which can be seen from the guaranteed issuance.
In 2016, among the 11 theatrical films that were publicly guaranteed to be released, only two films, "Mermaid" and "Hot Pot Hero", had a large proportion of box office exceeding the guaranteed amount, and the rest of the projects ended in failure.
Among them, "The Mermaid" was the box office champion in 2016, with a box office performance of 3.3 billion yuan, which made the 1.8 billion guaranteed distributor a lot of money, becoming an overwhelming victory in the history of the guaranteed distribution.
In terms of the specific share ratio, although each film is different, in 2016, the share ratio received by the distributor generally declined.
For example, in the 500 million guarantee agreement of "I Am Not Pan Jinlian", the box office of 500 million to 800 million yuan is exclusively enjoyed by Yaolai, and the producer and distributor of more than 800 million yuan each account for 50%.
In films such as "Jedi Escape" with a minimum guarantee of 1 billion yuan, the 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan excess part of the guarantee party can only get 70%, and the part exceeding 1.2 billion yuan is equally divided between the two parties.
In the end, "I Am Not Pan Jinlian" only barely reached the guaranteed amount before it went offline.
The most failed guaranteed release of 2016 was "Legend of the Gods"!
This film, which was guaranteed by Berner Films for 1 billion yuan, had a final box office of only 280 million yuan, and Berner Films, the guaranteed party, was almost a blood loss.
The fundamental basis of guaranteed distribution is to gamble on box office performance, and under the pressure of guaranteed distribution, there have also been box office fraud incidents.
Last year, from publicity to release, "Ip Man 3" experienced scandals such as large-scale crowdfunding, 1 billion box office valuation, and theater ghost scenes, and was named and criticized by the General Administration of Optoelectronics.
As an important pioneer of guaranteed issuance, Imperial Capital Culture has once again innovated this model.
The film "Generation of Goblins" also got a box office guarantee agreement of 500 million yuan from Imperial Capital Culture when it was not completed.
In addition, the star company Crystal Entertainment also issued a distribution agreement of 800 million yuan for "Wolf Warrior 2", which is still being filmed.
Before the film is finished, I dare to guarantee 800 million, I don't know if Chen Jing's vision is really unique, or the industry competition is too big and the bubble is too big!
Guaranteed distribution is a product of the domestic film market imported from the West, and to a certain extent, it has also spawned bubbles.
This method will not disappear immediately, but some radical companies will adopt such a more aggressive strategy in order to get the distribution rights of promising films.
In 2016, the film market scandals continued and contradictions intensified.
From the financial fraud and box office stealing scandal of "Ip Man 3" at the beginning of the year, to the public "scolding" of the richest man Wang caused by "I Am Not Pan Jinlian".
There is also a guarantee distribution behavior that involves deep interest disputes between film and television companies, and has also caused controversy in public opinion.
In November 2016, Feng Cannon bombarded Wanda for suppressing the film schedule of "I Am Not Pan Jinlian" because of his own personal grudges.
At the end of the year, "The History of the Disappearance of Romantic" once again repeated the mistake of Wanda's suppression of film scheduling.
In the process of suppressing the Huayi Brothers, Wanda Cinemas has also raised concerns about oligopoly in the industry, and there are endless voices calling for the introduction of a "film anti-monopoly law".
Behind this, what is reflected is the game between the channel side and the content side.
It is better to come to the dock cinema, cinema chain, and production company
In terms of separation, Wanda straddles the entire industry chain of production, distribution and screening, and controls the projection terminals, which account for more than 17% of the national box office.
At the same time, it has a strong voice in the distribution channel and is basically in a monopoly position.
In addition to Wanda, which occupies channels in downstream theaters, Ahri Pictures, an Internet platform that participates in the promotion and distribution of midstream, has also begun to seize advantageous channel resources in the industry by virtue of its own traffic advantages.
Ahri Pictures even acquired a cinema chain in Hangzhou in the middle of the year and took a stake in Hehe Pictures.
After joining forces with the guaranteed distribution "professional account" and the film industry, it is bound to expand its voice in the field of publicity and distribution.
In addition to the fact that it is easier to enter the field of publicity and distribution, the promotion role of the channel side in the box office is becoming more and more obvious.
In the domestic film market, channels play a very important role, and the films screened in the whole region and the whole country are basically selected by the channels, so the theater chain almost determines the box office.
But content should not be underestimated, and the proportion of content contributing to the success of the entire film project is increasing, and as the audience's viewing requirements increase, content creation will become the most important thing.
In 2016, in the case of shrinking ticket compensation and uneven film quality, the strength of the publicity and distribution ability had an important impact on the box office of the film.
In this context, Internet companies with big data have a unique advantage in distribution.
In addition, as online seat selection has become the mainstream of ticket purchase, the Internet trading platform has occupied a certain initiative in ticket compensation, which makes Weiying Times and Ahri Pictures, which hold entertainment tickets and Taobao tickets, have obvious advantages.
That is, the above points, the tightening of supervision, the stagnation of box office growth, the continuous scandals in the film market, the industry bubble is too large, and the securitization of star assets is serious.
As a result, the entire industry declined in 2016, and the market value of major listed companies declined.
However, Crystal Entertainment, which went public on the last day of the year, withstood the pressure and directly became the No. 1 film and television company in terms of market capitalization!
It's just that Chen Jing knows that 2016 is only the beginning of the decline, and in the following years, with more and more scandals exposed in the circle, as well as various riotous operations by celebrities, the public's good impression of the circle has been passing.
After the bubbles burst, there is only chicken feathers left!
Therefore, countless film and television companies went bankrupt, and celebrities began to protect themselves, and capital and hot money naturally continued to withdraw when they saw this, and then a vicious circle was formed.
Directly led to the entertainment winter!
Whether Jingpin Entertainment can survive in such an environment is still a question.
Although Crystal Entertainment has become one of the top companies in the industry, there is still the possibility of overturning.
What Chen Jing has to do is to continue to increase the anti-risk ability of Crystal Entertainment, and plan for the long-term future after the failure of the golden finger!