Chapter 50 Predict When War Will Break Out? (Ask for collections, ask for monthly passes, ask for recommendations, ask for follow-up)

Inside the synagogue, there was silence.

Everyone was thinking about what Zhuge Weidao said.

Although Daming has been "instigated" for more than 100 years, in the past 100 years, Daming is undoubtedly still a pole of the world!

The tail of the British Empire, though very high, stretched its claws long. However, the hegemony of the central and eastern parts of Eurasia and the North Pacific was still firmly controlled by the Ming Dynasty. Britain's control over India and the Strait of Malacca was also achieved on the premise of ensuring the economic interests of the Ming Dynasty - this control was actually "bought" by the British with real money, not by strong ships and artillery.

For more than 100 years, the Ming Dynasty has been exporting handicrafts and industrial products through Britain and the Netherlands, as well as gold and silver. This means that the capital needed for the development of industrialization in the Ming Dynasty can be easily obtained without having to go through plunder and colonization...... Since most of the silver and a considerable part of the gold plundered by the Europeans from the New World flowed into the Ming Dynasty, this means that Europe itself is the largest market for the export of Ming industrial products and handicraft products.

The resources needed for the development of industrialization in the Ming Dynasty, such as cotton, soybeans, rubber, palm oil, coal, iron ore, petroleum, tin ore, timber, rice, etc., could either be obtained from the vast mainland, or from overseas provinces and vassal states in Southeast Asia such as Siam, Annam, and Ava.

Of course, India also has a huge market. But until the conquest of the Europeans, India was a surplus exporter of goods. It is difficult for external goods to enter India...... Historically, it was difficult for the foreign cloth produced by Britain after the Industrial Revolution to open the market in India, and finally had to use administrative means to destroy India's homespun cloth production.

And the national policy of the Ming Dynasty has always been to expand the territory and not engage in colonization, seeing that India has a population greater than the Ming Dynasty (the current population of India is not as large as the Ming Dynasty), of course, you have to go around.

So the Ming didn't care too much about the expansion of the British Empire in India - even if they cared, they didn't know what to do? It looks stupid to help India rebel against the British, in case India rises and becomes a white-eyed wolf, then don't be blind to crying?

And it doesn't seem to be in line with the Ming Dynasty's national policy to compete for India with the British, and it won't colonize if you grab it, and it will be even more of a loss when you are the mainland!

Moreover, at that time, the shipping was still in the stage of sail to steam, and the sail battleships of the Ming Dynasty still couldn't play the British (King Zhuge Wuzhong didn't know sailing ships and navigation, and there was no golden finger to drive), plus the distance between the two sides was far enough away, in the absence of the Suez Canal, it was a full 15,000 nautical miles, and it was impossible to pose a threat to an industrialized country at such a distance if the troops were transported by sailboats.

Therefore, Daming chose to maintain a "win-win relationship" with Britain - for Daming, who has some overproduction after industrialization, there is really no reason to start a war with its largest market.

But this harmonious situation, as the world becomes "smaller and smaller" and Britain is fully industrialized, is about to and will come to an end!

However, when this "imminent" will become a reality is still a question mark.

"Daozi," Li Tiezhu, the chief of naval intelligence, asked first, "how much time is there for peace?" ”

Standing in front of a huge world map, Zhuge Weidao replied: "When the technological progress brought about by the industrial revolution comes to an end, peace will end at that time, and a world war will inevitably break out." Because when technological progress lags behind, the world economy will lack growth for a long time, which will make the powerful countries turn to stock competition.

At the same time, due to the huge production capacity brought about by the industrial revolution and the mismatch between the demand of the market and the supply capacity of raw materials, there will be a large surplus of production after the temporary halt of technological progress. The competition for markets and raw materials will inevitably push the Ming Dynasty and the British into hostility.

Moreover, technological progress brought about by the Industrial Revolution has actually 'shrunk' our world, making it possible for a superpower to dominate the world's oceans!

Finally, due to the rapid progress of military technology, the great powers, including the British and the Rakshasas, have the illusion that they are very powerful, which will also make them unprecedentedly belligerent! ”

"Daozi," Li Tiezhu asked again, "can you do the math on when peace will end?" ”

Of course, Zhuge is the way and can't be counted...... He has not yet disclosed his status as a military advisor, and he has not theoretically obtained the ancestral "algorithm". But there are still people here who will count!

Zhuge Weiyi, the naval armament squire, had already counted his fingers, and after counting, he interjected: "Fifteen to twenty years!" The tonnage of the battleships would double in fifteen to twenty years, and the standard displacement of large battleships would exceed 30,000 tons, 400 mm guns would also appear, and new fuel engines would provide more than 100,000 horsepower for the ships. After that, it's hard to keep improving. After all, if the battleship is too large, the draft will become very deep, the hull will become very wide, many ports cannot be docked, and the water is shallow and the channel is narrow. Moreover, in order to maintain a high speed, it is necessary to develop a marine main engine with ultra-high power......"

That's the benefit of being able to pinch and count!

The battleships of the First World War were almost like this, although the technology advanced again during the Second World War, but the speed of progress slowed down significantly, and the speed of technological progress of the battleships before the First World War could not be compared at all.

And in the case of continuous progress in military technology, the officers of the army and navy will feel that they are not ready, so it is not easy for a big war to break out. And as soon as technological progress slows down significantly, officers feel that they already have the most powerful weapons...... If you don't fight now, when will you wait?

At this time, Zhuge Weidao took over the topic and said: "Fifteen to twenty years is not too long, we can prepare for this inevitable war now...... It's not that we want to provoke a war, it's that we have to face a war! Everything we do now is to be sure that we can win in the future! ”

The people in the hall moved their eyes to Zhuge Weiyi, who was "able to pinch and calculate", and the "shipbuilding squire" stroked his beard and said, "Soldiers, the major affairs of the country, the place of death and life, and the way of survival, must not be prepared!" ”

Zhuge Weiyi is the military advisor of the Zhuge family, and his words certainly represent the military division!

The officials present have long been accustomed to being guided by the military division, although they sometimes feel that the military division is a little cowardly. But in the past 100 years, those who have invested with these cowards have made a lot of money...... So listen to them, that's right!

"Daozi," the question was asked by the secretary of the Admiralty, Zheng Guoan, the king of Yanping County, "how are we going to prepare?" ”

"Hui Yu Shangshu," Zhuge Weidao said, "Xia Guan thinks that our preparations should be divided into two aspects, one is that we must prepare well...... Don't hope for a quick victory, but prepare for a war that lasts for ten years! ”

Ten years is Zhuge Weidao's prediction of the duration of a possible world war on this timeline – in another timeline, World War I lasted just over four years before ending with conditional surrender because the Allies had exhausted their resources. However, the resources possessed by the Allies are completely incomparable with those of the two world empires of Great Britain and the Ming Dynasty. Moreover, the homelands of Great Britain and Ming are far away from each other, and they will hardly be directly attacked by the opponent, so they can have a relatively stable rear, and it is even more impossible to admit defeat easily.

Zhuge Weidao now says "ten years", which is still a rather optimistic expectation. If you are pessimistic, it is possible to fight a war in 30 years!

And the people present did not realize how terrible this war that could last ten years was, and one by one they were a little eager to try.

Zhuge Weidao then went down: "The second preparation we have to make is to exhaust and weaken the enemy as much as possible before the war begins...... Now I can think of three specific methods: one is to try to provoke a war between Britain and Jin, so that Britain will be stuck in the quagmire of war in Central Asia, and it will be difficult to extricate itself, so as to waste national strength and lose prestige; The second is to take advantage of the opportunity to carry out negotiations on limiting naval armaments and demarcating spheres of influence to deceive and mislead Britain into expending its limited financial resources on ineffective armament projects.

According to my estimates, in the end, we will not be able to reach their homeland in this war with the British, and the victory or defeat will depend on exhausting their financial resources and depriving them of their most valuable colonies! ”