"Tony, I've always had a question that I don't understand, why are there economists in the staff? Can economics also help in the war? On this day, Safina casually asked Monet while driving.

Monet nodded and replied: "There are many things that economists can do in war, and I guess the most unexpected thing for you should be intelligence analysis!" ”

"What? Intelligence analysis? How can economists possibly analyze intelligence? Safina asked incredulously.

"Of course, if we want to know the casualties in Germany right now, but this kind of data is highly classified by the military and extremely difficult to investigate, but in the hands of economists, it becomes very simple.

"The Legend of the Fairy Tree"

All you need to do is collect newspapers from all over Germany, especially obituaries in the local editions.

Because according to German culture, the obituary must have a detailed record of the deceased's date of birth and death, occupation, class, service unit, and place of death, so you can reverse the casualties when you get the obituary!

So the United States used its consulate in Switzerland to collect newspapers from all over Germany, and the sample size was about a quarter of the total number of newspapers in Germany.

Through the analysis of the obituary, two conclusions were finally drawn: first, for every officer killed, 212 soldiers would be killed, and through the number of officers killed, the casualties of the army could be extrapolated. I don't know the exact data, of course, but after the war, it turned out that this analysis was very close to the truth. Monet explained. (The post-war period here is the post-World War I.) ）

Then Monet said: "The same method economists also found two unknown refineries, the method is still through the analysis of newspapers, but this time the analysis is the railway rate, because they found that in Germany, there is a preferential tax rate for oil, and after the start of the war, this tax rate table has not changed, then there is a loophole, even if the actual flow of your goods is confidential, but I can also see which lines carry oil through the tax rate table, and then with the help of Germany's freight schedule, comprehensive analysis, Located the two oil refineries that he didn't know about before, and then sent people to reconnoitre, and it turned out that they really existed.

It also predicts which plants are being started up, and the entry point is also the freight rate, because once the plant is started, a lot of coal will be needed, which in turn will require a lot of transportation, which in turn will increase the scale of the economy, which in turn will lead to a decrease in freight costs. ”

“MY GOD！ It's just amazing, it's terrifying! Safina couldn't help but exclaim.

Monet continued proudly: "In fact, economists are not the best at analyzing these, we are best at armament estimates, before the intelligence department estimated production, the usual method was to interrogate prisoners of war, but the data obtained in this way is extremely inaccurate, because many prisoners of war themselves do not know how much production, so the data will be extremely biased."

For example, the aviation intelligence department of a certain country has overestimated the number of aircraft of the enemy country by nearly ten times, but this kind of thing is very accurate for economists.

Starting from the captured enemy tires, they found that the sample accounted for 0.3 percent of the total number of tires, and determined that 70 percent of the tires were from the five major manufacturers of the enemy country, and then estimated the proportion of natural rubber and synthetic rubber consumed by the enemy country, and found that their rubber resources were extremely scarce.

At that time, intelligence data was that the enemy country was able to produce 1 million tires a month last year, but economists estimated that it was only 186,000, and the actual figure was 175,500.

Similar estimates are also used in the production of tanks, fighter jets, machine guns and even rockets, for example, in August of a certain year, the production of tanks was 1550 units, but the economists felt that it was wrong, they analyzed the captured vehicles and record books, and obtained the serial numbers of 1200 tanks, and then they found that there were only two manufacturers to produce the engines of the tanks, and the gearboxes were only produced in two factories, so the final number of tanks assembled would be much less than previously estimated, they calculated 327 units, And the real figure is 342 vehicles. ”

"Tony, what are the two countries that you mean by a certain country and an enemy country?" Safina asked curiously.

Monet shook his head and replied, "I promised my friend to keep it a secret for him, so I can't tell you!" But in fact, these are all things that Monet had heard in a lecture before, in which one country was the United States, the enemy country was Germany, and the other year was 1942 and 1943, so it is naturally impossible to say it now.

So Monet diverted the topic and concluded: "Because war also has to consider cost performance, it is necessary to calculate how to exchange the minimum cost for the maximum destructive effect, such as bombing, where we should bomb, how much we should bomb, economists can give valuable suggestions."

In general, it is to make a scientific assessment of a limited sample through statistical analysis tools, to help the military lock in the focus of power, and to locate the enemy's Achilles' heel, which is the role of economists in war. ”

Then the conversation changed: "Of course, these are just suggestions, because we can't guarantee that the data is 100% correct, so it's up to the commander whether to adopt it!" ”

Safina nodded and agreed: "That's right, in fact, after doing intelligence work for a long time, you will find that the most difficult thing is not to spy on intelligence, but to verify intelligence, because it is impossible for every piece of information you receive to be accurate, so which ones should be accepted is a great test of the wisdom of the decision-makers in the intelligence department!" ”

As he spoke, the car had already driven to Michael's studio, yes, Monet came to Michael to do something today, but the moment he walked into the studio, he immediately forgot what he was going to do today, because he saw a girl walking out of the studio, and at the first time he saw her, Monet couldn't help but exclaim: "Nicole Kidman?!" ”

That's right, the blonde girl in front of her is very similar to Monet's favorite American actress Nicole Kidman before her crossing, both in appearance and figure!

Of course, the blonde girl in front of her was definitely not Nicole Kidman, so when she heard Monet call out this name, she was just stunned for a moment, looked at Monet very strangely, and then walked out and passed by him.

Monet just wanted to catch up and ask, but after thinking about it, since the girl came out of Michael's studio, it meant that he must know him, so he walked in quickly.

PS:When I swept the list just now, I sadly found that the current game categories are basically mobile games and League of Legends.,Sure enough, what type of game is popular and what type of game is popular.,I really miss the era of online games when the screen was full of MM!