Chapter 4 Survivorship Bias
The sun has not yet risen, but it is no longer dark between heaven and earth. In the midst of the lush vegetation, on a gentle slope with no large trees, a simple triangular thatched hut rises abruptly on a high ground.
The thatched hut has a pointed tip and is made of some branches tied together. The outer layer is covered with wide foliage, impervious to wind and water.
At the edge of the hut, a solar panel is facing the direction of the rising sun, and a wire runs out of it to a box that looks like a storage battery.
There was the ashes of the campfire in front of the hut, the stone stove, and eucalyptus boards, kitchen knives, pots and pans, and so on.
Under the eaves hangs a thigh of an unknown animal, with traces of salt stains on it. At this moment, it has been sunburned a dark red, and there is a faint fragrance coming out.
There is no fence around the hut, and it seems that it is completely unfenced against the wild beasts that may exist in the vicinity. But if an experienced hunter arrives, he will be able to detect that there are a large number of traps around the hut.
If you don't know the location of the trap in advance, even if a person comes, you will fall into the trap, let alone a beast.
A few dozen meters away from the hut is a shallow stream with a gurgling stream. In the direction of the thatched hut, it is obvious that a small puddle with an area of only a few square meters has been dug by hand.
The connection between the puddle and the creek is specially designed so that the fish can easily get in, but it is not so easy to leave.
At this moment, in this puddle, there are several unknown fish of the length of a palm swimming there. Amid the chirping of insects and birds, and the sound of the wind, the sun finally rises from the mountain peaks in the east, shedding a thousand rays of light on the land.
Facing the rising sun, on the simple wooden bed, He Wei slowly opened her eyes, walked out of the thatched house, faced the morning sun, and stretched lazily.
After lighting a fire, boiling water, and washing briefly, He Wei came to the puddle. The water is shallow and the puddles are small.
Those fish didn't have much room to move, and they were easily caught by her. After that, the scales were removed, the scales were disemboweled, cleaned up, and directly pierced with a chisel, and put on the fire to roast.
During the process, various spices are sprinkled to match the flavor of the fish itself, and the aroma is tangy.
In the process, she quickly cut some ham, looked around the hut, and found a handful of wild vegetables, cleaned them up and threw them directly into the pot, added salt, stewed for a while, and a bowl of wild vegetable soup was completed.
Eating grilled fish, drinking soup, facing the rising sun, and feeling the cool wind, He Wei's face was full of comfort.
"The rabbit nest I found a few days ago can be closed today, and you can make a spicy rabbit, or stew it directly and make braised rabbit. Then go find some mushrooms and make a mushroom soup. For dinner, it's better to clear it up, get some bamboo shoots, and fry it with ham to make do with it. It just so happens that there is bamboo on the mountain to the west, and the scenery is good, so just take a look. Thinking about today's schedule, He Wei ate slowly.
But before she finished her breakfast, the satellite phone, which had been silent for more than two months, suddenly rang. Her face quickly fell.
Don't think about it, the mission is coming. It also means that the days of leisure and comfort are over. The phone was connected, and sure enough.
"Alas, rabbit, rabbit, count yourself lucky, let you go." With a rather regretful sigh, she dialed a number again.
"Pick me up in an hour."
"Yes." In the course of an hour, she walked around the hut and destroyed all the traps that had been laid everywhere.
The small puddle by the stream was also opened by her, so that no more fish would be trapped in it.
After that, she walked to the hut where she had lived for more than a month. But she left her hand on it for a moment, and eventually changed her mind.
"Forget it, I'll keep you. These pots and pans are also left here, maybe someone will be able to use them. "A helicopter rumbled in and descended.
After descending to a height of about five or six meters, a rope ladder was thrown out. He Wei stepped on it, and the helicopter rose with it.
As far as she could see, huts, streams, stoves, grass, and so on began to shrink rapidly.
Ten hours later, she was in the thirteenth headquarters of the Planetary Security Agency. It's just afternoon.
Pushing open the door, I saw that Lu Qingliang and Lu Ming were already waiting here. After a few words of laughter, Zhang Dingshan also walked in.
Several people got up at the same time and walked towards Li Wenhua's office.
"This is the file for this mission." Li Wenhua handed a file bag to Zhang Dingshan. After a moment of silence, he only said one sentence: "Good job." ”
"Yes." Several people saluted Li Wenhua at the same time. When he came to the conference room, Lu Qingliang made copies of the materials into four copies, one for himself, and the remaining three copies were handed over to the three of them.
Lu Ming picked up the file information and looked at it seriously. Like the last murder case, this time the case was still investigated in depth and in detail by the security officers of the public security bureaus at all levels.
The materials are interspersed with a large number of pictures and identification documents. This allowed several people to understand all the information so far in a very short time.
"Flight EU7655?" Lu Ming muttered the name. He also knew about the crash of this flight—in fact, almost all the people on the whole planet knew about it.
After all, a major event such as the direct crash of a passenger plane, resulting in the death of more than 100 people, may not take a day to spread all over the world in today's Internet age.
Until then, he had thought it was just an ordinary accident. He didn't expect that there would be such a secret in this.
There is evidence that Sun Lide, who works in the aircraft assembly plant and holds the position of senior engineer, has long known that there will be a crash?
What seems like an ordinary accident could be a terrorist attack? After reading the information, none of them spoke, just silently pondering, analyzing and thinking about the information recorded in the file.
After a long time, Lu Ming finally opened his mouth.
"It's weird. If it was a terrorist attack, why couldn't the accident investigation team find the slightest trace of man-made? "If it weren't for the note that was accidentally found in Sun Lide's office, the dust on this crash would have settled long ago, and with the final conclusion, no one would have thought of investigating Sun Lide's daily behavior and mental and emotional stability, and no one would have suspected that his death was abnormal.
But it's just such a note that turns the whole thing upside down.
"Well, the investigation team investigated Sun Lide's interpersonal relationships and daily exchanges as deeply as possible, and did not find any suspicious targets. Mobile phones, computers, emails, calls, etc., and nothing suspicious was found. Background checks showed that Sun Lide did not have extreme tendencies and had no motive at all to promote a plane crash. No matter where you look at it, he should have nothing to do with this accident to ......" He Wei thought about it and said with some uncertainty: "Is it possible that we are too sensitive?" Perhaps, this is just a coincidence? Lu Qingliang immediately said: "It's not a coincidence. The information clearly shows that Sun Lide was obviously emotionally unstable before the crash, and at that time, there were no factors that could affect his mood other than the crash. Video recordings show that his mental state changed again after the accident investigation team finally determined that it was an accident and that no human factors were involved. Through the analysis of micro-expressions and micro-movements by psychological experts, it can be clearly concluded that Sun Lide has an emotional change like 'relieved and put down a stone in his heart'. These materials can obviously prove to a great extent that Sun Lide clearly knew about the crash, on that note
"EU7655" is not written casually. He Wei shook her head: "I don't mean this kind of coincidence. It's like dreaming about it, or just having a sense of foreboding. "There are a lot of similarities in human society
"I dreamed about something bad, and it happened", or
Phenomena such as "I dreamed about the death of a loved one, and when I woke up, I received the news of the death of my loved one", or I saw someone or an object, or I had an ominous premonition about something, and that person died or fell ill, the item broke, the thing failed, and so on.
There is no evidence of such as:
"Foreknowledge in Dreams",
"Sixth Sense",
Things like "intuition" do exist. In fact, scientists are more inclined to think that this is a special psychological mechanism, which is essentially a coincidence, which can be explained theoretically, and has nothing to do with the so-called predicting the future.
The subconscious mind of human beings is always running, and for some information received from the outside, the conscious mind may have stopped paying attention, but the subconscious mind is constantly analyzing and sorting out.
For example, if you dream of the death of a loved one, the real reason is most likely that the subconscious has noticed that the health of the loved one is deteriorating, or that the loved one's mental state is not good, and that some of the loved one's behaviors, such as liking drunk driving, acting aggressively and risky, etc., may lead to bad consequences.
The subconscious mind perceives these things, and then manifests them in the dream, forming one
The dream of "dreaming of the death of a loved one". Plus a name called
The psychological phenomenon of "survivor bias", that is, people will only pay attention to the dreams that have been fulfilled, and will subconsciously forget the dreams that have not been fulfilled, let alone mention them, and will not tell others about them
The phenomenon of "dream foresight". In fact, there is no relationship between the two at all, and there is no dream that predicts the future, it is just a coincidence.
Lu Ming said, "I know what you mean. Indeed, if Sun Lide had a very real dream about the plane crash, or if he had an inexplicable foreboding in his heart when he saw the plane, then the fact that his mental state was affected can indeed be reasonably explained. It is also possible that he could have written the crashed flight in his dreams on a piece of paper. As for the fact that flight EU7655 actually crashed, it was nothing more than an incredible coincidence. Lu Qingliang said: "We can't rule out this possibility." Lu Ming nodded: "Indeed." Zhang Dingshan shook his head: "The superiors will not accept this explanation." He Wei emphasized: "Whether a thing is true or not is only related to itself, and has nothing to do with whether the rest of the people accept it." Zhang Dingshan said: "What we have to do is to try to rule out any other possibilities, so that the superiors have to accept this explanation." Of course, if in the process of eliminating the rest of the possibilities, it is found that a certain possibility cannot be ruled out, or even there is a major suspicion, then it is necessary to investigate. There was a moment of silence in the room.
After that, Lu Qingliang muttered, "I can't think of where to start." "It's so inexplicable that it's no wonder that the sheriffs' investigation ended up with nothing.
"The vigilantes have made a lot of speculations and conjectures about this matter, and I think this conjecture is very reasonable, and maybe we can start from this." Lu Ming flipped the information in his hand to that page.
In this conjecture, the security officer in charge of investigating the matter believes that Sun Lide could predict in advance that flight EU7655 was about to crash, and that Sun Lide died of cardiac arrest in conjunction with the two things.
Further analysis believes that it is basically impossible for Sun Lide to arrive at this prediction on his own. It is very likely that some force, or individual, told him this foreknowledge.
Leave aside for the moment how that force or individual made this prediction, and only analyze its intentions.
In other words, why did it tell Sun Lide this prediction? What is it trying to achieve with this?
What kind of reaction does it want Sun to make? If you think about it with this logic, this question seems to have been answered.
That was the death of Sun Lide shortly thereafter. The purpose of that organization, force, or individual to inform Sun Lide of this prediction was to hope that Sun Lide would go
"Dead". Here, of course
"Death" is questionable. Here, the security officer guessed that Sun Lide was just faking his death, and with the help of this fake death, he got out of this world reasonably
"Curtain call", exit from this world. Comprehensive analysis, informing Sun Lide that flight EU7655 will soon be free of any human factors, and the prediction that it will crash simply because of an accident has become
"Prove some of your abilities to Sun Lide in exchange for Sun Lide's cooperation." And Sun Lide's cooperation, in this set of logic, is obvious
"Fake your death and get out". As for after suspended animation? I'm afraid the only possibility is to join that force or organization.
"It's fake death again." Lu Ming couldn't help but complain.