Chapter VII The Principle of Uncertainty Measurement

After a moment of silence, the two met with Professor Cheng Yucheng, who was in charge of the accident investigation.

Professor Cheng is in his 60s this year, his hair is already half white, and his face is full of tiredness and bags under his eyes.

As soon as he saw the two of them, Professor Cheng complained: "You were assigned by your superiors to assist in the investigation of this incident?" Oh, detectives? ”

"Yes. I am Senior Sergeant Zhang Dingshan of the Public Security Bureau. This is my colleague, Lu Ming. ”

"As I said earlier, this was a simple accidental crash with no human signs. I don't know what else to look up. I suggest that you close the case as soon as possible, and then quickly announce the conclusion of the investigation to the outside world. Now, public opinion in the outside world is quite dissatisfied with our delay in disclosing the conclusions of the investigation. ”

Professor Cheng Yu is clearly not aware of the twists and turns behind this.

Zhang Dingshan said solemnly: "Professor Cheng, I can say quite responsibly that our Public Security Bureau has excellent evidence to prove that this crash must be a man-made incident that can be characterized as a terrorist attack, not just a simple accident. ”

Seeing that Zhang Dingshan said seriously, Professor Cheng Yu couldn't help but become serious: "Really? ”

"Yes. Otherwise, our superiors would not have assigned us to come. But I'm sorry, but I can't disclose to you what kind of evidence we have, limited to confidentiality. ”

Professor Cheng Yu said stupidly: "You all said so, I definitely believe it." It's just that...... So far, I can't find any traces of man-made. ”

Zhang Dingshan said: "I will mobilize more investigative forces to assist you in your work. ”

"It's not a problem of too many people, you know? It's like, one person can't fly, 10,000 people, he can't fly. I can only say that I have checked everything that can be investigated and what can be suspected, and even if you transfer 10,000 people, you still don't know how to investigate. ”

Lu Ming coughed lightly and said, "Professor Cheng, perhaps...... You can look beyond our current technology for clues. ”

In the face of Lu Ming's words, Professor Cheng Yu was stunned, as if he was a little uncertain, and repeated: "Beyond our current technology...... Direction? ”

Lu Ming nodded.

Professor Cheng Yu looked at a few people with some uncertainty, and said cautiously: "Outside, aliens? ”

He has a certain level of secrecy, and this level of information can let him know.

Faced with his slightly shocked, confused, and somewhat ridiculous inquiry, Zhang Dingshan said seriously: "I don't rule out this possibility." ”

"You're kidding, aren't you?"

Zhang Dingshan shook his head very seriously: "I tell you clearly and responsibly as a senior sergeant of the Public Security Bureau, I am not joking. ”

Professor Cheng Yu let out a long breath: "This is interesting. Well, do you know which direction to look in? ”

"Meteorology."

Lu Ming spit out these two words very seriously, and then said: "We have mobilized a team of meteorological experts to arrive. When the time comes, you will need to cooperate with them. ”

"Weather?"

Lu Ming told Professor Cheng Yu about the results of the discussion of the previous action team 2. Professor Cheng Yu's face showed a thoughtful expression.

Lu Qingliang's ability to do things is as clean and neat as ever. A day after Zhang Dingshan and Lu Ming arrived at the investigation team's station, a team of four people came here.

The leader of the expert is named Si Hao, a middle-aged man with handsome eyebrows. After the greetings, several people were ushered into the conference room.

In the conference room, Zhang Dingshan and Lu Ming were already seated. Cheng Yu and another expert were also present as representatives of the crash investigation team.

However, Zhang Dingshan did not immediately start the introduction and arrangement of the mission. He gestured, and a staff member took out four non-disclosure agreements and placed them in front of the four meteorologists.

"Professor Si, the subsequent assignment involves a high degree of confidentiality, and you and several of your colleagues need to sign this confidentiality agreement first. I'm sorry for the rules. ”

Lu Ming stood up and explained to Si Hao and the others very respectfully.

Si Hao smiled and waved his hand: "The rules, I understand." ”

He picked up the NDA, looked through it for a while, and signed his name in a short time. The same is true for the other three.

From this moment on, their actions will also be restricted by the law of secrecy. Violations can result in jail time or death.

After sending the confidentiality agreement away for archiving, Zhang Dingshan said: "This mission, the situation is like this. ”

He explained it in detail. When he heard Zhang Dingshan's narration that the crash was probably because a secret organization unknown to the human world predicted the meteorological state of a certain limited area within a limited time in advance, and thus arranged the crash in advance, or simply directly controlled the weather and caused the plane to crash, Si Hao and the others were dumbfounded.

"Professor Si, the task of your team is to use Professor Cheng's crash data here to deduce the detailed meteorological data of the area where the plane was located at that time. And calculate what kind of forecasting power is needed to achieve such accurate weather forecasts. ”

Cheng Yu has a complete simulation of the plane crash process here. Using computer technology, they can clearly and intuitively display what happened at every step of the plane crash process and what kind of impact the external weather had on the plane's body.

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As a result, Sihao's team can use these known conditions to retrospectively deduce detailed meteorological data at the time, even to include the different flow rates, densities, interactions between different air flows, humidity, temperature, and so on in each small area.

The usual weather forecast will only be for a large area, and generally say "wind speed xx, humidity xx" and so on.

"Yes. Well, it will take about two days to complete. ”

"Okay."

Two days passed in a blink of an eye. After that, a picture appeared in front of Zhang Dingshan and Lu Ming.

It was an extremely complex picture, with many lines on it dividing many areas of different sizes and shapes, each with a three-dimensional image of a different color and a different number, and with the passage of time, those different areas writhed chaotically and changed rapidly.

"Scale is 1:1000."

The length and width of this image are about 40 centimeters. Counting the scale, it actually represents an area of 400 meters in length and width, with a total area of 160,000 square meters.

The depth of this three-dimensional image is up to 26 meters, which means a depth of up to 26 kilometers. The total duration of the simulation is three minutes.

"Flight EU7655 lasted about two minutes from the accident to the eventual inability to return. In these two minutes, the aircraft flew a total distance of 26 kilometers. In other words, this 3D map is simulated from one minute before the aircraft arrives until the plane finally leaves the area. ”

Si Hao pressed the play button. So Lu Ming saw that in this cuboid area, there were countless clumps and areas writhing and interacting chaotically, and countless numbers began to change rapidly.

A minute later, an image of an airplane appeared on the edge. And even before the plane arrived, its influence had already reached the area, causing the airflow to change even more drastically.

When the plane finally crashed into this area at an extremely high speed, Lu Ming saw that the change in the air flow was even more violent like a big fish being thrown directly into the oil pot while still alive.

The numbers representing speed, humidity, temperature, density, and so on, climbed from very low to very high, or from very high to very low, and he was dazzled by the drastic changes that he saw.

In the midst of this, he noticed that, based on the interaction between the air currents, or some special mechanism that he did not yet understand, a larger, more synchronized block suddenly appeared in the turbine engine of the right wing of the aircraft. The block first instantly turned cyan, which represents extremely low temperatures, and then instantly turned red, which represents extremely high temperatures.

This was repeated several times, and the effect of the virtual plane suddenly exploded into a spark. A blazing air rush rushed out, making the situation even more chaotic at the moment.

The chaotic and strong air flow affected the direction of movement of a small black dot - Lu Ming knew that the fan blade represented a break, so it was reluctantly inserted into a certain part of the fuselage of the plane. After that, a chain reaction was set in motion until the plane slammed downwards and completely lost control.

In just three minutes, Lu Ming seemed to relive the whole process of the plane from normal flight to final crash. He intuitively felt how this extreme and rare meteorological change destroyed a plane by "chance".

In the conference room, the few people who watched the accident were silent.

After a long time, Professor Si Hao broke the silence: "This is all the meteorological data we have reversed. ”

Lu Ming asked: "So, based on the current meteorological accuracy, Professor Si, with the current technical strength of our human beings, how long can we predict?" ”

Zhang Dingshan added: "Assuming you have enough, the most advanced observation equipment available in our human world. ”

Si Hao pondered for a moment, and said with a little wry smile: "My answer is that it is unpredictable. It's impossible to predict even a second from now. ”

"What?"

Zhang Dingshan frowned, and Lu Ming's face was full of shock.

Before that, he had a hunch that the predictable time might not be too long. But no matter how short it is, with a sufficient number of state-of-the-art observation equipment, it should still be possible to predict the meteorological data in an hour or two, right?

How can it not be predicted for a second?

"I didn't expect that the meteorological data restored from the wreckage of the plane would reach such a level of accuracy."

Lu Ming knows that in his sentence, the so-called accuracy means that if it is possible to predict in advance that an aircraft will be destroyed in this meteorological environment, then the prediction of meteorological data in the region must reach this kind of accuracy.

Without such accuracy, it would be impossible to predict that the plane would crash due to meteorological factors.

Si Hao sighed: "I want to ask you first, how can you observe meteorological data with such accuracy?" ”

"Yes, of course...... Well? ”

Lu Ming was stunned for a moment and stopped talking.

He probably understood.

Si Hao continued: "Such high-precision meteorological data can only be obtained unless a sufficient number of sufficiently advanced observation equipment is placed on site. However, the observation equipment itself can also affect the flow of airflow, which can cause disturbance to the meteorological data in the region. In that case, how can you predict that? ”

Lu Ming remembered a famous law of physics, the principle of uncertainty measurement.

For a particle, it is impossible for the surveyor to accurately measure its position and its momentum at the same time.

The more accurate the measurement of the position, the less accurate the momentum is. Vice versa.

Because of the observer's observational behavior, it will interfere with the particles.

At this moment, Si Hao's explanation turned out to be similar to the principle of inaccuracy.

"The reason why we are able to obtain this data now is that it is restored through the effect it causes. We can look back in the past, but we can't predict the future. ”

Lu Ming pondered for a moment and asked, "Assuming you have some kind of super facility that can obtain such accurate weather data in the area without interference, then, how long can you predict changes in the future?" ”

Si Hao was silent for a moment and replied: "It's still not for a second." It's impossible to predict at all. ”

"How is that possible? Or not for a second? ”

Lu Ming was taken aback again.

Si Hao smiled bitterly: "This area, it is not closed, but open."

With such high precision, the slightest change in the external environment can have a huge impact on the inside.

It is said that we want to predict this small area, but when it is actually predicted, well, the high-altitude wind speed is calculated by 50 meters per second, and the wind can blow 180 kilometers in one hour, that is, if we want to predict the data after one hour, we have to obtain all the meteorological data in this round cake with a radius of 180 kilometers, with such accuracy. Is this possible?

And, in principle, it's not just the airflow itself that affects the weather data. There are all kinds of flying machines, birds, and even mountains on the ground, vegetation on the peaks, towers, and so on.

This is a completely chaotic system, how can it be predicted? ”

Lu Ming was silent.

He only knew that the future was unpredictable. But he didn't know that predicting the weather could be so difficult.

In fact, if you think about it, there are still many inaccuracies in weather forecasting, which is a trending, large-scale, and low-precision forecast, and it is understandable that such a high-precision, small-range, and detailed prediction is too difficult to do.

"Then, in your understanding, if there is such an existence, which can predict changes in meteorological data with such accuracy in advance, then how strong will its scientific and technological strength be?"

Si Hao shook his head: "I can't imagine it. All I know is that it must be advanced, advanced to the point where we can't imagine it. ”

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