Chapter 39: Probability
Lu Ming continued to tell.
"And, as the distance from the Sun changes, so does the speed of the asteroid's motion.
So...... Taking into account all these changes, and taking into account the current data, the time it will reach its closest point to the Earth should be 136.5 hours later."
He Wei was shocked.
Lu Ming raised his head.
"A more accurate time calculation would be between 9:17 a.m. and 11:17 a.m. on the 19th. This time frame is the prophecy of the end times, and that prophecy, 10:17 a.m. on November 19, is exactly plus or minus an hour."
Lu Ming's expression was unprecedentedly solemn.
"So, this asteroid...... It is the asteroid in the doomsday prophecy of the Doomsday Organization. You can't be wrong."
With such a small difference in time, it's almost certain that it's a thing.
Moreover, it really shows that the doomsday prophecies made by the Doomsday Organization are indeed not nonsense.
Lu Ming didn't believe that if it was nonsense, how could it be so coincidental, how could it happen to be so close to the time when the asteroid finally reached the Earth's closest point.
"So...... What would happen to such an asteroid if it really hit the Earth?"
He Wei looked at Lu Ming. Lu Ming was silent for a moment and said, "I don't know the specific details. But you can roughly calculate it.
The total mass of this asteroid is about 55 billion tons. If the impact does occur, it will hit the Earth at a speed of about 340 kilometers per second. Then, the energy released by such an impact will be about 3.18*10^24 joules."
This number is too large and not so intuitive.
"For comparison, about 70 million years ago, the asteroid that may have been studied to have wiped out the dinosaurs was much larger and more massive than the asteroid at this moment, but it was too slow.
The energy released by that impact was about 4.2*10^23 joules.
In other words, the energy released by this impact will be 7.5 times that of that impact.
If we compare the energy that can be released by the Tsar hydrogen bomb, the largest hydrogen bomb in human history, then the energy released by this asteroid impact is about ...... 15 million Tsar hydrogen bombs exploded at the same time."
it!
For the number 3.18*10^24 joules, people do not have a very intuitive impression, and they do not have any feeling in their hearts. But when it comes to the Tsar Hydrogen Bomb, it is still 15 million Tsar Hydrogen Bombs, and I immediately have an intuitive impression in my heart.
Just one Tsar hydrogen bomb is enough to have a global impact, let alone 15 million at the moment.
Not 1,500, but 15,000,000!
At this moment, several people's breathing was a little short, and the same thought appeared in their hearts at the same time.
Can't let it crash into the earth! Absolutely not! If it does hit the earth, then everyone will die!
But after this thought, what greeted him was a deep sense of powerlessness.
It was from a distant planet terriddle kilometers away.
It was a very fast spacecraft, faster than even the fastest space and aircraft ever made.
….
How should human civilization resist such an existence? How is it possible to resist?
At this moment, the only hope and the only thing that human civilization can hope for is that Lu Ming's prophecy comes true.
The Doomsday Order's prophecy on this matter is incorrect. And the difference is a thousand miles, although this asteroid does appear, although it will indeed be very close to the Earth, it will not collide with the Earth. It will pass by the Earth.
The doomsday prophecy made by the Doomsday Organization, and the prophecy made by Lu Ming, which prophecy comes true will determine the entire earth
Ascription.
"Qingliang, keep in touch with the Asteroid Warning Center and the Disaster Prevention Command in real time. If there is any progress, please report immediately."
"Yes."
Although they knew that they could not do anything about it, or interfere with it in any way, they still couldn't wait to know how things were going every step of the way.
Lu Ming knew that the appearance of this asteroid would instantly attract the attention of all those in the know. From this moment on, events about the asteroid will be the first priority.
The importance of anything comes after this thing.
Time passed in silence. After a long time, Lu Qingliang suddenly said, "There are scientists at the Disaster Prevention Headquarters who have come up with a plan. They plan to launch a nuclear missile to intercept the asteroid. At present, the team of scientists is discussing the feasibility."
The hydrogen bomb is the most powerful weapon that human civilization has mastered. Faced with an asteroid that might hit Earth, it seems natural to launch a hydrogen bomb to intercept it, or simply change its orbit.
Perhaps, the hydrogen bomb can really play a role in it.
Lu Ming's expression was still heavy.
He did not believe that such an approach would be effective.
Sure enough, Lu Qingliang quickly sent back new information.
"The team of scientists explored 47 options for using nuclear missiles to intercept the asteroid or change its orbit, but all of them were rejected. It's not viable."
This result did not surprise Lu Ming at all.
Although this asteroid is only a speck of dust compared to Earth, it is still too big. The energy it carries is also too large and too fast.
With today's technology, it is impossible to make a rocket carrying a hydrogen bomb meet it accurately. In other words, it is impossible to launch a hydrogen bomb into this asteroid.
Even if humans had the right rocket to launch a hydrogen bomb into the asteroid, the power of the hydrogen bomb would be too small to change the asteroid's forward trajectory.
"The Disaster Prevention Command has concluded that with the current scientific and technological strength of human civilization, it is not possible to exert any meaningful impact on this asteroid. We're just going to let it go."
Lu Ming had come to this conclusion a long time ago. However, Lu Ming's conclusions are not rigorous, nor have they been rigorously calculated, and most of them are only in the category of intuition. Now, the Disaster Prevention Command has come to a different conclusion.
It is rigorous enough and backed up by a lot of data and evidence. This conclusion brooks no refuge.
They say there is no way, that is, there is really no way.
Lu Ming sighed slightly.
….
He didn't want those great scientists, people with top intelligence in various fields, to find solutions that he couldn't think of. But the reality is that no one can do it.
The news from the Disaster Prevention Headquarters continues.
"The Command's strategy has shifted from defending against a possible asteroid impact to preserving the legacy of human civilization as much as possible if an impact is unavoidable."
This statement of the command was extremely rigorously worded. It is not about "reducing losses", but about "preserving the legacy".
Obviously, the command clearly believes that in the event of an impact, the entire civilization could be destroyed, so what can be said about reducing the losses? It's a blessing to keep a little bit more.
The pessimism is self-evident.
"Command believes that in order to do this, there is a prerequisite for accurate, close, real-time monitoring of the asteroid's forward orbit. Only when sufficient data is collected can it be confirmed as soon as possible whether an impact will actually occur. If so, where is the point of impact?
Only when the impact point is confirmed can the impact model be used to calculate where the least affected area is. Only there can the seeds of civilization be preserved as much as possible and the civilization will be ensured."
At the moment, the asteroid is still more than 100 million kilometers away from Earth. There are about five days left.
100 million kilometers
It's not that far. The accurate orbital data of this asteroid for a period of time before are also in people's hands.
But even so, there is still no 100% certainty that the final impact will occur.
Because in the next voyage, the asteroid's orbit will still be affected in many ways.
The gravitational influence of Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, Earth, the Moon, the Sun, the gravitational influence of these stars on each other, the density of interstellar dust, the radiation power of the Sun, and so on, there may be a myriad of potential factors that can affect this.
So, one can only calculate one impact probability.
Whether there will be an impact can be conclusively determined only when the asteroid is close enough to be short enough from impact. It's like only at one moment, the next moment how the weather can be accurately predicted.
The universe is chaotic in the long run, but it can be quite precise in the short term.
"At this moment, all available observational forces have been aimed at this asteroid, codenamed 'Death.'"
"At the moment, of the 6 million square kilometres of possible safe zones, about 260,000 square kilometres have been excluded based on current data. The material reserve center in the area is temporarily mothballed and will not be replenished."
Data are limited. But this data alone is enough to eliminate some areas that were originally considered safe.
"Suspected to be affected by the mass shift caused by Jupiter's storm, the orbit of Death has shifted slightly. Based on this, the probability of impact was approved and judged to be 2%."
The mass shifts, and the gravitational field fluctuates.
Another few hours passed.
"It is suspected that the orbit of the Reaper has shifted due to the influence of solar wind and light pressure radiation. Based on this, the probability of impact was approved and judged to be 6.5%."
Previously, due to some other factors, the probability had increased to 4%, but it fell back to about 2.6%, then climbed to 8%, and now it has fallen back to 6.5%.
….
It's like a stock, it goes up and down. But no matter who you are, you can clearly feel that the probability is rising from the overall trend.
This is not good news.
During this time, Lu Ming, Zhang Dingshan, He Wei, and Lu Qingliang were always in the conference room. Even eating and sleeping are done at the conference table.
Lu Qingliang kept broadcasting news from the Asteroid Warning Center and the Disaster Prevention Command Center.
The atmosphere was tense and heavy, almost visible to the naked eye.
At the moment, the Ark base.
Before today's work was over, in Wang Long's hand, on the mobile phone distributed by the base, in the communication specially developed for the personnel in the Ark base, a shocking news broke out in the group chat.
"Outside, the Asteroid Warning Center confirmed that an asteroid is approaching Earth! The impact probability has been judged to be 1%!"
"The asteroid, tentatively named Death, is 3.1 kilometers at its longest point and has a total mass of about 56 billion tons. Once it hits the Earth, it will release the equivalent of 15 million Tsar Bombas and destroy the world!"
In the group chat, which was originally a little deserted because of working hours, there was a boom, and it became lively in an instant.
"Asteroids! It's really coming!"
"How could the prophecy of the Son of God be wrong!"
"Hahahahaha! The day has finally come!"
"Long live the Son of God! Hooray!"
"The end of the world is coming, I can't wait!"
There was a boiling in the group chat. At this time, the temporary director of the base also complied with public opinion and issued an announcement.
[I have known an old book friend for ten years to recommend to me to chase books, @
Wang Lung roared excitedly.
After waiting for so many days, worrying for so many days, now, everything is finally settled!
That's right, it's settled!
The time predicted by the Son of God is 10:17 a.m. on November 19, and the time initially estimated by scientists in the outer world is from 9:10 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. on November 19, and this asteroid will reach its closest point to the earth.
It is not a coincidence, then it can only be predestined, and it can only prove that the prophecy of the Son of God is indeed correct!
Once the end is certain, so are the good days ahead. At that time, these people will be the masters of this earth.
He followed the excited people to the lounge hall. People sat in twos and threes, each discussing the matter.
At this moment, the hearts of the people in the Ark base have been condensed to the highest level.
He also found a random place to sit, took out his mobile phone, connected to the Internet, and began to browse information.
So he saw that this news, except for some more people, not many people in the outside world cared about it.
Some netizens even think that a 1% probability of impact, doesn't that mean a 99% probability of not impacting? It's 99% non-impacting, so what's the worry about?
Some people also think that the sky has fallen and the tall people are on top, and they are small people, and An Ansheng can live a good life.
At this moment, what occupies the headlines is still those entertainment news that Wang Lung won't even look at.
The outside world is still singing and dancing, peaceful and prosperous.
Wang Lung put away his phone, a smile on his face.
"Ignorant fools, soon you will see what the end of the world will look like. All of you will die, but I can live, and even become the master of the whole earth, the whole human civilization."
……
Nebulae fall in smoke and rain