Chapter 4 Numbers Don't Deceive
That's a total of one year and nine months. A total of 520 people committed suicide.
According to this data, the average number of suicides in Blue Lake City has reached 24.7 per month. On a 100,000-person basis, the average number of suicides per 100,000 people per year is about 15.6.
This figure is far higher than the global average of 12.6.
Although this kind of statistics must be high and low in different cities, those areas and cities with high suicide rates have clear reasons, whether it is environmental factors, economic factors, or cultural factors.
Also, those places have always been so high and stable.
Here in Blue Lake City, the number of self-killings has only increased sharply in recent years.
No matter how Feng Guozhu wants to break his head, he can't think of any factors that have caused this phenomenon in recent years.
After thinking for a moment, to no avail, he shook his head and focused his attention on the writing in front of him.
He did not instruct his men to analyze the cases with him. Because the criteria he screened were idealistic and he couldn't make a clear definition, he had to do it himself.
Fortunately, this kind of screening is not complicated, otherwise more than 500 suicide eucalyptus will not be analyzed in a year.
These dossiers are usually thick. There are dozens of pages of background checks, pictures and analysis reports of the eucalyptus scene, interviews, etc. But all he focused on was a rough background of the deceased's identity and the investigation of the motive for suicide, and he couldn't even look at the rest of the place.
"Age, 17, puppy love...... Hindered by teachers and parents, and the family is not harmonious, his father has a tendency to domestic violence, and his economic conditions are poor. The motive was to make an appointment with her boyfriend to commit suicide by jumping off the viaduct and committing suicide......"
Looking at the two flesh-and-blood corpses in the photo, as well as the delicate and introverted photos of the two deceased, Feng Guozhu sighed in his heart.
This is a very clear and unambiguous case of suicide.
He turned over the eucalyptus and ruled it out.
The latter was a middle-aged man. The family is harmonious, the children are filial, and the economic conditions are better. But he unfortunately suffered from cancer, which was the most sinister, painful, and had the worst prognosis.
After being diagnosed with cancer, he organized a family trip and spent more than a month traveling with his wife and children. After that, without waiting for symptoms to appear, he left a suicide note, found a tree in a certain mountain, and hanged himself.
This is also a very clear case of suicide that does not require any further investigation.
This is such an extremely definite condition, and Feng Guozhu only needs a few minutes to get rid of it. In just two hours, he looked at more than 20 eucalyptus pieces, and the progress was fast.
Upon seeing the twenty-ninth suicide eucalyptus, he found the first eucalyptus with an unknown motive for suicide.
The deceased was a secondary school physical education teacher. He committed suicide by overdosing on drugs one night.
The deceased's purchase of drugs is fully documented, and video images are complete. No trace of a second person was found at the scene of death. Fresh fingerprints of the deceased were found on the medicine bottles and water cups, and the cause of death was clearly death from drug overdose.
This is an ironclad, chain of evidence for suicide.
The motivation for suicide is described as "failing to select a job title and failing to get better treatment".
But......
The deceased's family described the patient's financial situation as being better. At the time of his death, he still held millions worth of stocks. His car is a large SUV, and his family has a large flat floor in the city center, and he usually likes travel, fitness, football, self-driving, barbecue, fishing, etc., and has a wide range of hobbies.
The deceased graduated from a prestigious university majoring in sports science, and after graduation, he gave up the opportunity to enter a large human science research institution, and was willing to return to Blue Lake City, a small and medium-sized city, to work as a physical education teacher in an ordinary middle school, in order to have more time for himself to do what he liked.
After all, the PE teacher has the highest probability of getting sick and the highest probability of not being able to attend class, right?
In this way, once he is "sick" and "has something", he doesn't even have to go to school, and teachers from other subjects not only take classes instead of him, but also thank him again and again for his cooperation, and he also happens to drive out to surf, the best of all three.
Such a person who is obsessed with his own interests and hobbies and only regards his profession as a social identity will commit suicide by taking medicine because of "failure in the selection of professional titles"?
How unreasonable to look at.
However, after a strict investigation by the security officers at the time, this seemingly absurd incident was the only "setback" he had encountered recently.
The reason for his suicide could only be because of this incident. Otherwise, what else?
It can't be because five days before the suicide, the car was slightly scratched with someone, right? It can't be because the boss sold him a box of fake cigarettes when he bought cigarettes, right?
Feng Guozhu was thoughtful. He took the eucalyptus out separately and put it in a separate folder.
After that, he continued to watch.
After looking at three more normal suicide eucalyptus, another eucalyptus came into his sight.
This time, the deceased was a white-collar worker in a company. After being reprimanded by his superiors, he turned around and jumped out of the window and ended his life.
The motive for the suicide in this eucalyptus seems to be clear. After all, I was just reprimanded by my superiors, right? In addition, the salary of the company's ordinary employees is not high, and the deceased's family conditions are not good, and the pressure on his life is also relatively high.
His motive for suicide seems plausible.
However, the company's employees generally said that the superior was cold-hearted and warm-hearted and took good care of his subordinates. Shortly before the deceased's suicide, the superior also pushed for the promotion of the deceased, and at that time the promotion announcements had already been announced, and it would not be long before he took office.
Moreover, the incident of reprimanding by the superiors at that time was indeed a mistake made by the deceased.
Also, the deceased was usually kind and kind, and there was no sign of extremes.
According to the investigation of the security officers, although the family conditions of the deceased were not good, his father had recovered from a serious illness and had seen the dawn of recovery. My sister also graduated from college soon, and got an offer from a large company, so she will soon be able to be independent.
It was when everything was going well and the suffering was about to pass, just because of a reprimand from his old superiors who promoted him, and the reason was indeed because he had done something wrong, so he committed suicide?
It doesn't make sense.
His suicide also implicated his old superiors who were forced to resign and had to leave the post he had dedicated for decades, implicated his father, who made him ill again, and made his sister suffer from depression and had to give up valuable job opportunities.
Feng Guozhu also took out this eucalyptus separately.
That's how he was selected. Anything that made him feel that the motive for suicide was unreasonable would be taken out by him.
In this way, in his spare time, he devotes all his free time to this matter. After a month, he finally completed the screening of more than 500 eucalyptus.
Of these, a total of 82 suicides were screened by him.
Feng Guozhu subtracted the total number of suicides in the past 21 months, that is, 520, from these 82 eucalyptus, to get the number 438.
Using the number 438 to calculate the number of suicides per 100,000 people per year in Blue Lake City, he got the number 13.2.
His hole tightened suddenly.
The average number of suicides per 100,000 people per year is 13.2, which is only 0.6, or 4.76%, higher than the global average of 12.6.
And that's not precluding some ambiguous eucalyptus. Those eucalyptus, the motive for suicide is reasonable, and it can be regarded as reluctantly. But it's not so convincing after all.
There are 24 pieces of this ambiguous eucalyptus. Even if only half of them are taken, that is, only 12 pieces are taken, plus the 82 pieces that were screened out before, this is 94 pieces.
If a total of 94 cases are excluded, then the average number of suicides per 100,000 people in Blue Lake City is only 12.8 per year.
This figure is only 0.2 people higher than the global average of 12.6 people, which is only 1.59% higher.
Before these people are removed, the figure of 15.6 is 23.81% higher than the figure of 12.6.
The numbers don't lie. So what do these numbers mean?
Doesn't this mean that, after removing the obvious irregularities in suicide, the suicide rate in Blue Lagoon is in line with the global average, but it is not high at all?
But if you add these obviously perverse suicide cases, the suicide rate in Blue Lagoon is much higher.
So, those obviously unreasonable suicide eucalyptus, really...... Is it suicide?
Or is there another reason behind their suicide?
Could it be that among these suicide cases, are the so-called suicide motives all forced?
After all, there must be a reason for a person to commit suicide, right? Under the premise that "there must be a cause", these things that can only be causes become the causes of suicide.
This is what creates this unreasonable situation.
Among these suicides, there is another special existence, that is, Zhang Lu's suicide.
The rest of the unreasonable eucalyptus, if they insist on finding a reason, can barely find one or two unsatisfactory things in their lives before committing suicide. For example, quarreling with his son, such as being reprimanded by his boss.
Only Zhang Lu committed suicide, and there is no real reason for it. No matter where you look at it, this young girl is too happy and her life is too perfect.
It was precisely because of Zhang Lu's suicide that he had the idea of in-depth investigation, and finally screened out these eucalyptus.
Feng Guozhu vaguely smelled a little of conspiracy. He seemed to feel that there was a big invisible hand behind these events, and in places where he had not yet noticed, he was conspiring to manipulate some tricks.
He sensed that the incident was out of his control.
If your guess is true, what is really behind these obviously unreasonable suicides, or that existence is manipulating, then how big of a eucalyptus is this?
Hundreds of lives are involved! The fate of hundreds of families is involved!
Once the matter is exposed, I am afraid it will shock the world!
A cold sweat broke out on his forehead.
He didn't hesitate any longer, but picked up what he had discovered during this time, went directly to his superior's office, and slapped it in front of his superior.
The superior's expression was uncertain. After a long time, he said slowly: "Old Feng, you are an old criminal." You're telling me explicitly, do you think there's some big criminal organization behind these numbers, and it's this criminal organization that manipulated all of this and created these suicide traps? These suicide eucalyptus, in fact, are they all homicides, are they criminal eucalyptus? ”
"Yes. Leader, although my grades in school were average, I also know that numbers don't lie! ”
The superior said slowly: "The numbers really don't lie. But...... Same number, but different ways to interpret it. How do you make sure your interpretation is correct? ”
Feng Guozhu's face darkened: "Isn't this obvious?" What else could be possible besides this possibility? ”
"Then, why do so many people check hundreds of eucalyptus pieces and find no clues? What kind of criminal organization can carry out hundreds of cases in a row without leaving a single mistake? ”
This is indeed an inexplicable point.
When Zhang Lu committed suicide, Feng Guozhu continued to investigate for a long time, but no sign of a criminal offense was found in any case.
"Is it possible that it's just a coincidence?"
The tone of the superior seemed to be asking Feng Guozhu, but it was more like expounding his own opinion: "The numbers are indeed quite compatible, quite coincidental." But there is no sign of a criminal offense, and it is also real. Just because of some numerical analysis, restart the investigation of these hundreds of eucalyptus? This...... Is it reasonable? ”
Feng Guozhu was unconvinced, but he could only admit that it was unreasonable.
"In any case, this is a foreshadowing of a possibility, right? Do we want to check this possibility? ”
"I want to check, but not the kind of check you think."
The superior made his decision: "You contact the School of Social and Psychological Sciences, find some public psychologists and suicide psychologists, and come to our Blue Lake City to do a sociological investigation, and see what is the reason why our people in Blue Lake City are so easy to have emotional breakdowns and make unreasonable actions." ”
The superiors obviously still do not think that there is a possibility of criminal offense. He thinks there may be something abnormal in this, but it should be something that belongs to the level of public psychology.
For example, in some regions there is a long-standing culture of suicide, where there is a tradition of death when great shame is suffered or when a great mistake is made. Or in order to show determination, in order to wash away grievances, they will also die to make their will.
Or when they realize that they no longer have any contribution to society and family, but are a drag, some elderly people in economically backward areas will also choose to commit suicide.
Sometimes the social culture restricts the individual too much, resulting in too much psychological pressure, and it is easy for people to collapse, and often end their lives on impulse because of a small thing.
There are many reasons for this, but the answer can probably be found in social psychology. The most direct reasons for this are none other than culture, economy, and environment.
The suicide rate in Blue Lake City is too high, and there is a considerable proportion of "unreasonable suicide" cases, maybe this is also the reason?
Could it be that the city's economic growth has slowed down recently, and prices have not stopped, because the economic pressure has led to an increase in suicide rates?