"Risk? What are the risks? The main body of this project will be based on trusts and current credit cooperatives, as well as the equity intervention of other banks, and in addition, Yanjing has also been approved, coupled with the connections and channels of the local government, how come I don't see any risks? Shao Heping asked suspiciously.

"Brother Shao, it is precisely because of this that it is risky!" Song Chaoyuan saw that Shao Heping didn't understand, and couldn't help but shake his head, in fact, he was as optimistic about this project as Shao Heping at first, but after the arrival of Xiangjiang's professional team, he conducted a detailed analysis of this project, plus the discussion meeting these days, and the contact through other channels behind the discussion, Sheng Hua finally came to the opposite conclusion from the original, this conclusion Song Chaoyuan was also very surprised when he heard it for the first time, but after a detailed explanation by professionals, plus Song Chaoyuan's own judgment, and finally admit that the professional team's conclusions are correct.

Song Yuanchao is a businessman, Shao Heping is an official, compared to Song Yuanchao, Shao Heping is not as keen on business, Song Yuanchao also understood it after the explanation and analysis of the professional team, so it is normal for Shao Heping not to see the problem of this project for a while.

Song Chaoyuan explained to Shao Heping little by little, explaining the risks of this project in a way that the other party could understand.

Although Shao Heping is right, the establishment of Qiongdao Commercial Development Bank is a good thing on the surface, and the main structure and core part of this bank are formed by the merger of the previous trust institution and the credit cooperative, and then the capital investment of the major banks, coupled with the approval of Yanjing, there is no problem in all aspects.

Moreover, in the operation of capital, it is normal to reorganize through this financial means, and package the projects and industries of the entire Qiongdao after the bursting of the real estate bubble as an asset injection, so as to share debts, concentrate funds to do big things, and solve problems.

From the time this idea is put forward to the subsequent operation, coupled with the support of the local government, it is a good thing.

It is a pity that Shenghua's professional team came to the opposite conclusion after understanding the specific situation, the team agreed that the risk of this project is too great, and from the beginning of the project there are congenital deficiencies, coupled with the fact that the actual investment of the shareholders is not real money, and there is very little real money, on the contrary, the proportion of the previous debt as equity conversion is too high, in addition, there is the current high debt problem of the shareholders, including the bank itself, has not been solved. It also buried a great hidden danger.

"Brother Shao, come and see, if you compare this to the current credit cooperatives in Qiongdao, this is a trust, these are the major banks, plus other shareholders except these, that is, if Shenghua intervenes and is similar to Shenghua's investors, these are the basic ...... that make up the development bank." Song Chaoyuan picked up a few tea cups in front of him and set them up, explaining to Shao Heping in a more visual way.

Shao Heping looked at the tea cup on the table and nodded slightly, but he still didn't understand what the problem Song Yuanchao said.

Song Chaoyuan told Shao Heping that according to the current bank debt after the bursting of the real estate bubble, the high is about 60%, and the low is nearly 40% to 50%, and these are only bank debts. As for the debts of credit cooperatives and trusts, they are even higher, after all, compared with banks, both credit cooperatives and trusts are not as good as banks, and such a high debt ratio has overwhelmed credit cooperatives and trusts, so although they are shareholders in the process of establishing development banks, they can't get any funds at all, and all they have is the institutional organization of credit cooperatives or trusts, plus the share capital converted from liabilities.

In fact, the same is true for banks, the liabilities of local banks can not be completely supported by the head office, and in the previous Qiongdao real estate bubble, violations of multiple pledges abound, so that the liabilities of local banks need to be solved by themselves, coupled with the fact that the former is also the main aspect of the local bank's investment in debt conversion and real equity capital, which has a very serious problem for a newly formed commercial bank from the beginning.

According to Shenghua's team, once this commercial development bank is established, it will have a well-established organization on the surface, and it will also look like a large-scale commercial banking institution. But in fact, from the very beginning of the establishment of the bank, the bank has been operating in debt, according to conservative estimates, on the day the bank was founded, the bank's own debt ratio was frighteningly high, but there was no real and sufficient funds.

"What is this debt ratio you mean?" Shao Heping asked with a somewhat solemn expression.

"The specific has not been calculated, it depends on the final share capital, but according to the current debt and the amount of negotiation, there is a rough estimate, this figure I think is at least more than 3 billion, or even more." Song Chaoyuan replied calmly.

"So much? You can't be wrong with that number, right? Shao Heping was taken aback and hurriedly asked.

"Brother Shao, you are the person in charge of Lucheng, and I think you should know how much debt Lucheng has involved in various banks, trusts and credit cooperatives, not to mention that this bank is related to the debt problem after the real estate bubble in Qiongdao, so don't you know how big these debts add up? Three billion, I'm still conservative, and it's possible to double it if I can't do it. ”

Song Yuanchao's words made Shao Heping speechless, of course Shao Heping knew that the chicken feathers left after the bursting of the real estate bubble in Qiongdao, the entire Qiongdao because of the bursting of the real estate bubble, the funds involved in all aspects were not only three billion, but tens of billions of dollars.

Of course, there are certainly not so many banks and trusts that are directly implicated in credit cooperatives, but after the discount, it is estimated that it is not far from what Song Chaoyuan said.

"Opening a bank is actually the same as opening a company, how can you start a business without capital?" Song Chaoyuan sighed and said: "A bank has been burdened with such serious liabilities from the beginning of its establishment, and this has not counted the packaged debts as the input of equity capital, if all are counted, how do you say this bank will be done?" What is the future? ”

"It's ......." Shao Heping was silent for a moment, he thought about it and asked: "What you said is not wrong, but the original intention of establishing this bank is somewhat special, mainly to use this bank to revitalize funds, and then solve the problem of liabilities step by step." In addition, once the bank is established, the credit cooperatives and some trust institutions in the entire Qiongdao can become the foundation of the bank, and according to the savings absorption capacity of these branches, the source of funds can be obtained through the absorption of savings by the society, so as to alleviate the debt ratio. ”

"Hehe, this idea is good, but it's a pity that it will be carried out according to this idea in the future, can you guarantee it?" Song Chaoyuan sneered and asked rhetorically.

"You mean ......?" Shao Heping asked with a frown.

"There has never been a shortage of smart people in China, and there is a good saying that the ass determines the head, and where the ass sits, the angle from which the problem is considered is different." Song Chaoyuan pointed to the sofa where Shao Heping was sitting, and nodded at his temple.

Song Chaoyuan told Shao Heping that this is no problem in theory, but it is unlikely in practice. If it is a healthy commercial bank, it can develop slowly through a step-by-step model. However, this bank has a strong purpose from the beginning of its establishment, and this purpose also involves such a huge debt problem, so some things will inevitably happen.

Banks need to absorb deposits, and only by absorbing deposits can they obtain a large amount of funds and attract free funds from society to banks. In this case, it is impossible for a newly established commercial bank to do this in a short period of time, and at the same time, because the bank's debt ratio is extremely high at the beginning of its establishment, and it must complete the absorption of reserves to solve the problem of funds, then it will inevitably need some unusual means to attract social funds.

The easiest way is to raise the interest rate, according to this year's bank interest rate, the current demand deposit rate is 0.385%, the three-month fixed interest rate is 2.86%, the six-month interest rate is 3.08%, the one-year rate is 3.30%, the two-year rate is 3.75%, and the three-year rate is 4.25......%.

Of course, this interest rate is only the usual interest rate, and the actual operation of various banks has a high bottom, and some banks with high interest rates have a three-month interest rate of 6.66%, a half-year period of 9.0%, a one-year period of 10.98%, a two-year period of 11.70%, a three-year period of 12.24%, and a five-year ...... of 13.86%.

This interest rate is very scary, taking the five-year period of 13.86% as an example, you must know that even if you do business, you may not be able to maintain such a high annual return, so in the same interest rate situation, ordinary people will choose big banks for deposits, such as the big four banks, after all, the four major banks are more reliable in people's minds, and the scale is also large, so it is more safe to save money in.

In this case, the only way for CDBs to compete with the big four banks in order to complete the ability to absorb savings and solve the imminent funding problem is to raise interest rates further. At that time, as long as the interest rate is higher than that of other banks, or even much higher, then for the sake of high interest rates, people can be attracted to deposit their money in commercial development banks, so as to solve this problem.

If it's just a normal partial increase in interest rates, then it's not too much of a problem. After all, commercial banks have a commercial nature, and it is understandable that their relative interest rates are higher than those of the four major banks.

Unfortunately, judging from the current contacts between Song Chaoyuan and his team, the banks, trusts and credit cooperatives, which are shareholders of the Commercial Development Bank, have simply gone beyond normal means to raise interest rates and absorb savings, and they have planned to attract funds with extremely high interest rates, and the proportion of interest rates is completely higher than the normal proportion.

In this way, it is not a normal bank business behavior, and it is completely for the sake of absorbing savings. In addition, there is a more serious problem, that is, the shareholders are already heavily indebted, because the debt causes the shareholders to be under great pressure in their own institutions, and all parties rack their brains to find ways to solve the debts and economic losses, including the local side also has the same idea.

It is precisely because of these that once a large amount of savings is completed, then what will happen next is extremely scary, Song Chaoyuan's team told Song Chaoyuan that when the funds absorbed in the reserves are not only unable to be invested in capital operation, but are even likely to be directly converted by these shareholders with the invested share capital and packaged debts, and then the funds are directly withdrawn.