Chapter 194: The Capital Butcher's Knife Swinged
The policy announced by Neon Yang Xing certainly does not mean that interest rates will be cut.
Baba asked, where did the neon cabinet dare to ignore.
Neon central bank announced policy.
They will buy more than 30 trillion yen of neon medium- and long-term government bonds in the next three months.
Generally speaking.
A country's treasury bonds are issued by the country's treasury.
The banking platform is only responsible for underwriting, which is the process of selling treasury bonds to investors.
Before Neon Central began to buy its own country's national bonds on a large scale.
There are very few central banks in the world that will buy a large amount of their own money. Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Administration.
The main thing is to do this, which is equivalent to borrowing money with the left hand and the right hand.
This right hand is still the kind that can print money....
There is no difference between printing money directly, that is, it looks better in name.
As a result, the yield on their own government bonds will be greatly reduced.
The side effect is that buyers of other domestic government bonds will be suspicious of their own government bonds.
A more direct effect is to release a large amount of the country's local currency in the market.
In economic terms, this behavior is called "quantitative easing".
Later, the United States also used quantitative easing against itself many times.
But the inventor of quantitative easing is actually neon.
Quantitative easing can put a lot of money on the market.
That is, under quantitative easing, the monetary policy implemented by the Neon Central Bank on its own country's economy is not a fine-tuning, but a direct prescription.
Neon Young. As soon as this decision is announced.
USD/JPY is an instant empty bull against the currency.
Almost five minutes after the news was announced.
USD/JPY rose from a daytime low of 104.300 on January 6 to 107.500.
There is a time difference of about thirteen hours between Tokyo and New York.
The news was announced at half past seven in the evening of Tokyo time.
When the news was announced, it was about half past six a.m. on January 6, East Coast time.
As soon as the news came out that the neon central bank was about to start quantitative easing.
Most of the people in charge of investment banks on Wall Street have been flooded with phone numbers and contact information.
Manhattan, New York.
Located in. In a luxury apartment next to Yong Park.
Paulson was jolted awake by his wife, and his lover pointed to the non-stop phone ring across the bed.
"Telephone call! Hurry up and answer the phone, I'm going to be noisy! ”
As the wife of the president of Goldman Sachs. Paulson's wife is often woken up in the middle of the night or so early, or at other times.
Although she is used to it, when she gets up and gets angry, she still complains.
Paulson had long been accustomed to it, and he gently slapped himself on the face a few times to make himself completely sober.
The CEO picked up the phone, and the voice of the head of the market supervision department of Goldman Sachs came from the opposite side.
"Mr. Paulson! Just now, Neon Yang Xing announced that it will buy a large number of neon treasury bonds today!
”
This huge black swan event suddenly sobered Paulson up.
Paulson took the cordless phone and walked quickly to the bathroom as he exclaimed, "Are you sure?" ”
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"It's confirmed! Just now, a few minutes. The yen has rapidly depreciated by more than a hundred points! ”
"Oh! Madefaq! Didn't they just come once two years ago? ”
Paulson cursed as he walked to the bathroom door.
Paulson suddenly remembered.
Goldman Sachs does not seem to have invested in yen assets recently.
He was a little unsure and asked the head of the supervision department.
The person in charge replied: "Uh... Because of your request, Goldman Sachs has indeed not invested heavily in yen assets recently. ”
Paulson breathed a sigh of relief.
His movements in the bathroom also slowed down a lot.
Since Goldman Sachs does not have a large-scale investment in yen assets.
The quantitative easing of the neon central bank will not have such a big impact on Goldman Sachs.
Paulson was in no hurry.
"Hey~" Paulson, who was holding a cordless phone, spoke in a relaxed tone.
"I'll be going to the company soon. Ha~ But at this time, Richard, they must be more anxious than me~Ha~ I hope they don't get in a hurry. ”
The person in charge also smiled on the other side of the phone:
"yes. In the past few days, they have really invested a lot of money in yen assets! Especially.... Most of them are still short the dollar! ”
Paulson's tone in charge was filled with surging schadenfreude.
In fact, Paulson was in the same mood at this time.
The president hung up the phone with a smile, and then began to dress up in no hurry.
It's like Paulson said in a chat with the person in charge.
In this USD/JPY rally.
Wall Street investment banks that are heavily short USD/JPY.
Their person in charge really can't sleep anymore at this time.
The bulldog of Wall Street, Mr. Richard Forder, CEO of Lehman Brothers.
He was directly in the fragrant quilt of his glamorous secretary, and was dragged to the company by his subordinates' deadly serial calls.
Due to the urgency of time, Richard Fored didn't even have time to get dressed.
He only changed into a suit and didn't even wash up.
I rushed to Lehman Brothers, the headquarters on Seventh Avenue near Manhattan's Times Square.
Halfway through, Richard Fored had already figured out why.
This made Wall Street's bulldogs can't help but scold Neon Yang Xing along the way.
"Madefaq neon cupboard... Madefaq! ”
Richard Forder, who scolded at this moment, was no longer as easy as the previous two days. And the happy look when I saw the exaggerated figures on the Lehman Brothers foreign exchange account before I fell asleep last night.
When he came to Lehman Brothers Bank, in the trading department.
Lehman Brothers on a foreign exchange account.
The floating profit has fallen from $950 million yesterday to $79 million.
"Madefaq! Close the position! Close the position! Close the position! Richard Forde scolded.
A few minutes ago, the last time he had this floating number.
They also have about $150 million.
It's been less than five minutes, and they've fallen in half.
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And it only took twenty minutes from the time he was called out of the phone and rushed to the company's side.
In 20 minutes, a floating profit of $950 million is about to turn into a floating loss.
Brin Buley, the chief financial officer who was on duty last night and had been staring at this transaction all night, said helplessly:
"Sir, a wave of bearish stampedes has been formed. Fifteen minutes ago, I had already ordered the position to be closed. But so far, we have not even closed a thousand lots. ”
In international foreign exchange, futures and so on, whether it is long or short.
If you want to close a position, there will be a premise.
That is the opposite of the long/short bet, willing to take your order.
Because to put it bluntly, whether it is foreign exchange or futures, playing is betting.
Since it is a gamble, it is naturally zero-sum.
That is, in betting, one person must lose money, and the other person can make money.
I'm about to lose money, and I want to close my position short/long.
You have to be in the opposite camp to pick up your order when you happen to be at this number.
If no one takes the order all the time, then you must keep losing, and you will lose until the margin is insufficient and you will be liquidated directly...
It's a bit like a phenomenon in the stock market.
It's when a stock is sought after by everyone.
It started to rise like crazy, but the people who held it refused to sell.
There will be no price in the market, and the stock price will continue to soar because the buy orders are much larger than the sell orders, or the sell orders are basically non-existent.
In turn, a stock plummets. When everyone is selling stocks and no one is going to buy them.
Then the stock will fall sharply.
It will not stop falling until there are about the same number of people buying and selling it.
The difference is that as long as you don't use leverage, you can buy stocks as long as the money is not borrowed.
No matter how much the stock falls, it's still there in the end.
Even if the stock ends up rotting in your hands, it's still a stock.
If the company does not go bankrupt, collapse, or delist, there will be a little hope for the stock after all.
But betting on foreign exchange, futures.... If you lose in the end, you will really blow up your position directly. All the principal is lost, and even after the liquidation, you still have to owe money to the middleman!
If you use leverage...
This is the case with Lehman Brothers' current empty orders.
A wave of bears fleeing has been formed. The bears, who had an absolute advantage before, all wanted to flee at the first time to ensure profits.
In an instant, hundreds of thousands of short orders want to close the position.
There is no corresponding response from the bulls.
Then these short orders, there is no way to close the position immediately to end the VAM contract.
Now this kind of market, coupled with the neon central quantitative easing policy.
An empty massacre has been formed.
No bulls will choose to close their positions at this time.
This means that the vast majority of short positions are placed.
There is no way to close the position in the first place.
Compared to other Wall Street investment managers, Richard Forde is more decisive.
From the CFO, after getting the news.
Richard Forde immediately made up his mind:
"Cut the meat, cut the meat and leave the scene! Try to minimize losses! ”
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Meaning of Richard Forder.
That is, directly on the current USD/JPY exchange rate, directly thanks to some pips.
I'd rather let the bulls on the opposite side make a little more money directly at this time.
Also close the position early, so that you can avoid possible bigger losses in the future.
"Understood." Bryn Bouly immediately responded.
Then the CFO of Lehman Brothers took a look at the latest quotes.
USD/JPY, which has risen to 108.560.
Bryn Boulley was a little desperate, because by this time Lehman Brothers had already begun to lose a lot of money.
"Sir, how much value should we choose to close the position?!" Brin Bouly asked Mr. CEO again.
The value of 108.560 made Richard Forde just as desperate.
But he was desperate for a few seconds, and the value above had changed from 108.560 to 108.590.
The bulls have gone crazy and don't even give the bears a chance to surrender.
At this time, it can be said that the bulls have become a big trend.
Those shorts in the market who do not have a cross position are estimated to be incarnated as bulls at this time.
“111!
Richard Forde gritted his teeth and was bleeding, and he hissed and shouted: "Immediately close all the leveraged positions at 111 yuan!" ”
If you choose to close the position at USD/JPY 111.000.
Lehman Brothers' investment in USD/JPY this time is really cutting meat.
The losses are almost more than half.
The CEO is willing to take on such a responsibility, and Bryn Boully naturally took action immediately and hurriedly prepared to cut the meat and close the position.
In addition, Richard Forde also immediately went from idling to more.
He ordered Bryn Bulli to open another long position, and he used high leverage, hoping to hedge the loss of the short.
Long and short at the same time, where the leverage is different.
This is known in the industry as "hedging".
That's what hedge funds do.
It's just that there are quite a few decisive people like Richard Forder on Wall Street.
And the long list does not mean that it can be opened as soon as it is opened.
It is better to say that the number of hands is less, and there are not many new empty single bets on the market now.
At this time, it is not as easy as the previous stalemate.
Lehman Brothers managed to close 10,000 short positions, and when USD/JPY rose to 109.950.
Lehman Brothers' highly leveraged long orders have successfully opened less than a few hundred lots.
The empty slaughter has been formed, where are there so many iron bears...
And at this time, the meat cutting warehouse of 111 is also a little flat.
Bryn Bouly turned around to ask Mr. President for a solution, but saw the President slumped in his chair, his eyes a little blank.
U.S. East Coast Time.
January 6th.
On the New York Stock Exchange, investors who held short positions in USD/JPY FX futures lost more than half of their positions in one day.
The second day, the third day, is Saturday and weekend.
U.S. futures are closed and the market is closed.
January 9th.
On Monday, the US futures market opened, and a few hours later USD/JPY broke through 118.950.
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After 12 o'clock, the major US exchanges were closed briefly.
The financial predators on Wall Street are experiencing both joy and sorrow at the moment.
Three World Financial Center, New York.
PNC Financial Services Group, in the same building as Merrill Lynch, in the New York office.
Syllable!
"Honey, go open a bottle of champagne!" Chief Executive Officer of PNC Financial Services Group, Sully Vinston.
He leaned happily back in the office chair, crossed Erlang's legs, held a cigar in one hand, and swam freely behind the female secretary with the other, and suddenly slapped it hard.
"Chilled! Lincoln is coming over later, and I'll have to celebrate with him!
”
"What do you want for lunch?" My dear boss, I'll help you Zhang Luo! ”
The female secretary laughed stupidly, and her figure was deliberately pouted, so that her boss could play more comfortably.
"I only have an appetite for you except money. But Lincoln was a puritan, and he didn't like to play with me. ”
Sully Vinston laughed.
Last week, he and Lincoln, the company's investment fund manager, discovered Abel Smith and Smith Capital, when they suddenly went from idling to long.
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He spent an afternoon behind closed doors with Lincoln, the head of the company's investment arm, the Bellade Fund.
In the end, the two giants of PNC Financial Services Group unanimously decided to place heavy bets on long contracts.
At the beginning, because of the US dollar interest rate cut, the US dollar turned short from long to short.
The fall made the eyelids of the two giants of PNC Financial Services Group jump.
When Abel's loss came to about two billion dollars.
He didn't know that PNC Financial Services Group was optimistic about his investment style.
PNC Financial Services Group also lost nearly $500 million with him.
Just when Sally Vinston and Lincoln were a little skeptical about life.
Neon Central announced their quantitative easing.
The tide was turned around.
Since then, major countries around the world have successively announced interest rate cuts along with the dollar.
The window for the dollar to depreciate is disappearing quickly.
Combined with the quantitative easing policy of the neon central bank.
The dollar is holding up again, along with the neon bank's initiative to devalue the yen.
In the following days, PNC Financial Services Group's investment in USD/JPY continued to expand like a wild horse.
At present, PNC Financial Services Group's floating profit has accumulated to 1.5 billion US dollars.
Sully Vinston gambled with Lincoln and won by a huge margin.
"What should I do in the afternoon?"
Sully Vinston pondered carefully while tasting the female secretary's wine and beautiful lips.
Stanley O'Neal, a black executive at Merrill Lynch who works in the same office building as Sully Vinston.
But it wasn't as easy as Sully Vinston, and not as lucky as Sully Vinston.
Stanley O'Neal was sitting in a chair with his eyes bloodshot in his hands and head in his hands.
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The most powerful black man on Wall Street is in a state of infinite remorse at the moment.
Because just now, Merrill Lynch Securities had a short order of up to 150,000 lots, when the USD/JPY came to 118.900.
Completely liquidate.
Merrill Lynch's more than $3.5 billion in margin and funding was all wiped out.
Forget about liquidation.
The loss is $3.5 billion, which is not to the point of breaking the bones for Merrill Lynch.
But...
Since it is a bet, sometimes liquidation may not solve the problem.
Because liquidation is just a loss of margin in the account.
If you can't close the position, the positions in the account will continue to lose money.
Just like now, USD/JPY will continue to rise.
Merrill Lynch did not have $3.5 billion in addition to liquidation.
The next position that has not been closed will continue to lose money.
There is no longer a margin with the middleman, and it will become a debt.
What to do if you owe money, you need to make up the money first.
If the compensation is not complete, the middleman has the right to collect the debt.
If the arrears are too long, the middleman can also file a lawsuit to recover the debt.
In other words, after losing $3.5 billion, Merrill Lynch will continue to make up for it later.
It was not until the position contracts in Merrill Lynch's hand were successfully closed that the matter was over.
Fortunately, the USD/JPY pair finally stopped its crazy rise after reaching the value of 119.
The butcher's knife wielded by the bulls, in the case of possible profit drawdowns as well as anti-shorting, is finally not so sharp.
At this time, Merrill Lynch only needs to make up about $500 million to $600 million in margin, and basically can end the position contract.
But to do so. . .
It's never a good thing for Stanley O'Neal.
Stanley O'Neill was in despair at this point, thinking about whether to continue the margin call.
Continue to make margin calls if USD/JPY can fall again.
Then Merrill Lynch may reduce losses or even turn losses into profits.
But it is also possible to add margin, continue to blow up and continue to owe money...
It's a dilemma.
One is to directly and completely cut the meat and leave, and Merrill Lynch's loss this time will exceed $4 billion.
Stanley O'Neal for the first three years.
A total of Merrill Lynch Securities, not to mention the more than $2 billion earned on the US dollar/yen.
Merrill Lynch will have to pay more than a billion dollars for this.
If you choose this, it will basically declare that Stanley O'Neal is completely finished at Merrill Lynch.
Even the second half of his entire life can be declared a real social death.
After the company lost so much money, can you expect Merrill Lynch shareholders to let Stanley O'Neal go?
Don't think about it!
How is this possible.
Stanley O'Neill also knew that if he took one step back, he would be doomed.
The black president gritted his teeth and planned to go all the way to the black.
However, just as he finished thinking about it, he was ready to let the company continue to make margin calls.
Stanley O'Neill had just walked into the trading department and was about to give orders to the same terrified and desperate traders to continue the attack.
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At the same time, let the rest of the company adjust more funds to support themselves.
Stanley O'Neill saw the door outside the trading department.
David Komansky, the company's chief executive, walked in as he pushed the door open.
Stanley O'Neal saw a smile on David Comansky's face that he had never seen before.
It was the kind of smile that David Komansky would be happy even if Merrill Lynch lost four billion dollars.
See David Komansky's smile.
Stanley O'Neal suddenly groaned.
The most powerful black man on Wall Street, he knows he's finished.