Chapter 410 Economic Binding and Population
Zhu Jingyuan stayed in the motor vehicle industrial park on Chongming Island for three days.
This time, I didn't organize the car race myself, because the car race already had a foundation.
Before Zhu Jingyuan intervened, there were already various carriage races, bicycle races, motor vehicle and car races.
Zhu Jingyuan also specially arranged for the imperial court of the Great Food Country to organize car races, and now it has a certain scale.
According to the original plan, Zhu Jingyuan was going to leave for Edo to take up his post after visiting Nantong.
But the thoughts when he visited the shipyard a few days ago, as well as what has happened in the last few days, made Zhu Jingyuan change his mind.
While his father was still in Yingtianfu, he returned to Yingtianfu to interview him again.
On the way back to Yingtian, Zhu Jingyuan sorted out his recent thoughts and wrote a relatively complete report.
After arriving in Yingtian, he went to meet his father and handed over the report by the way.
Zhu Jingyuan originally thought that his father had to ask about the details at the very least, but after reading it, Zhu Jianyan said directly:
"Just let it go, don't care about what those villains say......"
Zhu Jingyuan was obviously stunned when he heard this, and then quickly reacted, his father was appeasing himself.
He was worried that the tabloid articles of the past few days would affect his mentality.
There should have been a problem, but this time I deliberately didn't ask, and used such an action to show my support for myself.
Zhu Jingyuan suddenly smiled a little helplessly:
"Father, you don't have to be like this, what are we like, don't you and I know?
"Those tabloids that are not on the table at all, those ideas are simply the same as the emperor using a golden flat pole.
"I didn't take it to heart in the first place, and I didn't come back this time to observe your attitude towards me......
"I really want to take this opportunity to talk to you again before I go to other places.
"Because the next time we meet is a few years away......"
Zhu Jianyan smiled and waved his hand:
"Okay, sure enough, I'm too worried, Jingyuan, you're really still like that, haven't changed at all, so I'm relieved.
"Then I'll ask a few questions, I do have something I want to ask you.
"You are worried that the Taixi people are engaged in joint research and development, and this concern is indeed unguarded.
"But what kind of considerations are there for incorporating Taixi's industrial system into the industrial system of the Ming Dynasty?"
Zhu Jingyuan explained preparedly:
"Let the countries of Taixi be deeply bound to the Ming Dynasty economically, and make their market a part of the Ming market.
"If they leave the Ming Dynasty, they will not be able to operate independently, and the economic order will quickly collapse.
"At the very least, the chaos should continue for a long time, so that the overall economic and technological level will be lowered for an era.
"In order to achieve this goal, we can continue to open up some advanced technologies to the Thai side.
"Of course, as with France and the United Kingdom, there are conditions for technological openness, and that condition is the market.
Or to put it another way, the process is the process of economic colonization.
"If they want to learn Daming's high-end technology, they have to become part of the market controlled by Daming.
"The two are actually one and the other, and the two are one.
"The higher the level of technology, the more difficult it is to achieve, and the greater the demand for the industrial base and the market.
"When the final product they can make is complex to a certain extent, it is not that they can maintain the entire industrial base of a country.
"At the same time, some of their industries should have been completely controlled by Daming's capital.
"In that case, they lose the opportunity to be independent.
"When the time comes, even if their king and court want to oppose the Ming Dynasty, they will be curbed by their domestic capital representatives.
γ
"The size of the Taixi countries is relatively limited compared to the Ming Dynasty, and it is not too far from this level.
"It was about the same time when computers and turbine engines became commonplace."
Zhu Jianyan showed a sudden expression when he heard half of it, because he found the corresponding thing in the ancestral testament:
"The economies of the two sides are bound to each other, and the huge Ming Dynasty is absolutely dominant, and the other party can become our de facto economic colony of the Ming Dynasty......"
Zhu Jingyuan also nodded immediately:
"That's it, I think that's where we're going for the next stage.
"There is no way for the other party to leave Da Ming, but Da Ming can abandon them at any time.
"In this way, a full-scale war is almost impossible......
"If the other party's royal family and court oppose us, we can even mobilize the other party's civil forces.
"Let the other party's capital and the people force their royal family to cooperate with us.
"Even to do the abolition."
What Zhu Jingyuan said was what actually happened in his previous life.
But the United States, which bound the Tessians in the previous life of the Ming Dynasty, was different.
While Americans bind the Tessies, they are actually bound by a certain degree of reverse.
Because after the information age, the population and volume of the United States are actually still an order of magnitude worse.
The United States and Tessie had to merge into one in order to form a completely complete industrial system.
While the U.S. may make up half or more of them, Tessie is also indispensable to the U.S.
The current and future Ming Dynasty is an order of magnitude higher than that of the United States, and has the ability to realize a complete industrial system by itself.
Zhu Jianyan, who had read the last chapter of the ancestors, immediately captured the key in Zhu Jingyuan's logic:
"Let the capital and the people of the other side carry out a coup d'Γ©tat......
"Is it okay to let the other party's domestic capital and people ask for it, and let the other party take the initiative to become a Daming vassal?"
Zhu Jingyuan was stunned for a moment, his father was really still interested in the territory.
In fact, the current Emperor of the Ming Dynasty must have the idea of unifying the world, after all, there are two out of three parts of the world.
But the matter of the war, the current Emperor Ming doesn't want to mention it a little.
I'm a little bit more interested in the world war.
If there is a peaceful method of annexation, and the other side takes the initiative to annex it, then there will definitely be a high level of interest.
Of course, Zhu Jingyuan also considered:
"Theory can be done like that, but when we do that, we have to consider whether this is beneficial to Daming.
"Xiyi is not the traditional vassals around the Ming Dynasty, and their race and culture are completely different from ours.
"Even if you want to do this, you have to control the population comparison between the two sides, and the Ming people should be at least twice as large as the other party.
"Now the Ming people are less than a quarter more than a quarter of the Tessians.
"If we maintain organic growth after that, it will be difficult for us to reach several times the proportion of each other.
"We need to find a way to control the rate of population growth of the Tessy people, and at the same time carry out deep and thorough cultural infiltration.
"It takes at least one or even two generations of preparation for a relatively peaceful annexation.
"Otherwise, we will be laying the foundation for our descendants......"
Zhu Jianyan suddenly felt a little regretful:
Indeed, the Han Dynasty's inappropriate handling of the Xiongnu's internal migration may have been the early cause of the Wuhu Rebellion.
"It seems that my generation is no longer good, no matter how you plan, it will be completed by your generation."
Speaking of which, Zhu Jianyan came to the spirit again:
"However, whether or not you want to annex peacefully in the end, there is nothing wrong with finding a way to control the population of the Tessians.
"This time your staff went to England to mourn Pete, and you can go find that Malthus......
"In peacetime, the population grows exponentially, while the means of subsistence grow only linearly.
"What's more, now that the world has been fully explored and distributed, the territory controlled by the Taixi countries is only half of that of the Ming Dynasty, and the gap in the area of the grain production area will be even greater.
"So if the Tessie countries let it go, famine, war, and pestilence will inevitably occur.
"Therefore, it should be recommended that the countries of Tessie and Spain take measures to curb the birth rate.
"Malthus could be funded to propagate his theories."
nodded with a very complicated expression:
"I'll remind Mr. Niu of his ......"
Then Zhu Jianyan seemed to think of something again:
"Jingyuan, do you think there is a problem with this theory? Should we be prepared ourselves?
"The land of our Daming is not infinite, after all, the scale of the entire earth is no more than that.
"If we increase the number of Ming people to several billion, there will definitely be all kinds of problems.
"Jingyuan, what do you think about this issue? Have you ever thought about it? β
Zhu Jianyan doesn't have a deep feeling for these things, and is very objective in considering these logics.
Zhu Jingyuan's inquiry even had the intention of investigating and contrasting.
I want to see if Zhu Jingyuan has a big deviation from the ideas left by Emperor Shizu on this level of issues.
Zhu Jingyuan obviously has ideas about this kind of problem, and even has deep personal experience:
"Population growth is not exponential in the first place, because normal people's energy is limited.
"As technology and culture continue to evolve, the general level of education of ordinary people will become higher and higher.
"The work they do will become more and more complex, and the social issues they will have to deal with will become more complex.
"The amount of energy that ordinary people allocate to raising and educating their offspring is likewise limited.
"And as the level of education increases, the complexity of the work is increased, and there is a trend of decreasing.
"The more critical issue is that people with a high level of education will also have higher requirements for their offspring.
"Ordinary people want their children to go up, at least not lower than themselves.
"This increases the amount of effort and resources that goes into raising a single child.
"Parents are spending less energy on their children and more resources for a single child, and the direct result is that the number of children is significantly reduced.
"This is still not a matter of considering that as the status of women continues to rise with social development, they will participate more and more in social work, and it is no longer just a matter of bearing the traditional obligation to have children.
"The same does not take into account the pressure of life caused by social problems such as the concentration of the means of production and the inflation of the means of subsistence.
"So when society develops to a certain extent, the birth rate will naturally decrease.
"In fact, only the royal family, nobles and high-ranking merchants, these families who do not need to take care of their own children, will have a relatively exponential growth of offspring.
"Unless the imperial court can truly achieve absolute socialized upbringing.
"Let ordinary people just take care of the birth, no matter how they are raised, the number will definitely continue to swell.
"At the same time, the increase in the means of subsistence is not linear......
"At least in the era of the Industrial Revolution, it was not linear, and the rate of growth was probably faster than the population increased.
"The role of fertilizers is already being felt.
"If it can be spread quickly, it can directly double grain yields in a few years.
"It would take two generations for the population to double.
"We can't guarantee that technological innovation will happen constantly, but we can't guarantee that it won't continue to happen.
"My personal rough estimate is that if there is no large-scale social upheaval in the future, the peak of Daming's population may be in the early two billion.
"There is no need to consider the situation of billions of Ming people at all.
"When it's time for your grandchildren, the emperor and the court should worry about how to increase the fertility rate.
"According to the land currently controlled by the Ming Dynasty, coupled with decades of scientific and technological progress, at that time, it will be no problem to raise 10 billion Ming people......
In the end, neither of these analyses can show that Malthus's theory is wrong.
His theory is logic in an ideal situation where external factors are not taken into account.
"Of course, there is almost no ideal situation in sociology.
"Therefore, we don't need to care about the existence of this theory, but we can promote this theory to Taixi."
Zhu Jianyan listened to Zhu Jingyuan's tirade very quietly, and compared it with the relevant theories on the ancestors' posthumous articles.
Then judge the credibility of the logic in your own mind.
Zhu Jianyan is not completely blindly believing in the last writings of the ancestors, nor will he blindly believe in Zhu Jingyuan's various theories.
There are not only various predictions and predictions in the testament of the ancestors, but also very mature guided thinking and analysis theories.
The descendants of future generations are required to learn the method of analysis first, and then look at those predictions dialectically and apply them against their own actual conditions.
Zhu Jingyuan didn't speak, just waited for his father to think over there.
After a long time, Zhu Jianyan spoke again:
"So...... Jingyuan: What you mean is that the Ming Dynasty doesn't need to think about controlling population growth at all.
"The population of Daming will begin to decline before it reaches the limit of Daming's land resources.
"Therefore, we even have to think about the problem of preventing the premature reduction of population growth in advance?
"Have you ever thought about that?"
Zhu Jingyuan nodded again:
"I really have a little bit of thinking about this aspect, and the most important thing is actually two aspects.
"First of all, as I said earlier, there is too much pressure to prevent competition for social survival.
"In fact, for the current Daming, this matter is not a problem, and even if it is discussed now, it is a prevention for the future.
"At the same time, Emperor Shizu has left behind a large number of preventive measures, many of which are still effective today.
"The first is to improve the smooth education and employment system of craftsmen, and prevent the disconnect between the income and social status of physical and mental workers.
"Mental workers do not earn more than manual workers, nor do they have a significantly more respected social status.
"Ordinary people in society will not want to send their children to be mental workers.
"The social affairs that manual workers need to face are much simpler than those of intellectual workers.
"So they'll have more energy to focus on having children and raising children.
"Let them have a relatively decent status and income, so that the children can also maintain the same standard of living relatively easily.
"So that they don't feel troubled to have children, and they don't worry about their children's future lives.
"They don't have to worry about fertility.
"Then there is the avoidance of unrestricted women's emancipation.
"These two logics are also one and the other, two and the other, to some extent.
"Much of the large-scale, sustained women's liberation movement is profit-driven.
"It is not wrong for women to marry and raise children, and it is certainly not wrong to be self-reliant.
"The key is who evaluates this right and wrong, and how is the relevant decision made?
"Is it the thinking and understanding of the individual's own heart? Is it a need for personal life?
Or is it coerced by public opinion, or is it driven by deliberately created anxiety?
"For ordinary women, if they can live a stable life at home, if they can teach their husbands and children at home, why should they take the initiative to go out to work?
"For some women who are naturally suitable to participate in scientific research, engineering, and management, they can also make greater contributions to society by leaving their families.
"But it is an ulterior motive to demand that all women go out to work and be self-reliant, free from the constraints of their parents and family.
"It's about imposing theories that are more beneficial to certain groups on everyone's head.
"All women going out to work essentially doubles the number of workers and dramatically increases the bargaining position of manufacturers.
"The imperial court should do the opposite, guaranteeing the income of the vast majority of workers and ensuring their standard of living.
"Let a slightly skilled worker be able to support his wife and children relatively stably.
"Let his wife's choice whether or not to go out to work be in his and his wife's own hands.
"Instead of becoming a wife who doesn't go out to work, the children will have to go hungry, and the future will not be settled, and they will have to work.
In this way, excessive women's emancipation can be avoided naturally.
"In the final analysis, it is to ensure the most basic fairness of the whole society and avoid the excessive concentration of social wealth and resources.
"Let the benefits of technological innovation fall more on the main workers of society."