Chapter 241: You don't understand the basic principles of statistics

Being scored in the last second before heading into the half-time break was a real fatal blow for Hyypia and Bayer Leverkusen.

In the end, it was still the most powerful defensive weapon in football - set-pieces!

And such a result will affect their deployment in the second half, and it will also affect the team's mentality in the second half.

It also means that their painstaking counter-attacking tactics have been cracked by Hamburg.

Because Hamburg, who have a goal in hand, will not be in a hurry to press the formation again, they can even easily reverse the ball in their own half, wait for the Bayer Leverkusen players to grab it, and then pull out the gap in the formation.

In the away team's locker room at halftime, Pan Yi also said this to the players:

'Now that we're ahead, we have to be careful about the pace of the game. There is no need to press so hard, but the midfield still has to be firmly controlled, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the counterattack of the opposing striker. ”

'Their defensive formation is actually very good and if it weren't for Kevin De Bruyne's flash of inspiration, they wouldn't have been able to tear them apart. So don't be careless in the second half, if they don't press up, we don't need to press too deeply. ”

'At about the end of the second half I will bring on Alkay Mitrovic to strengthen the high post and our midfielders will also have to increase their long-range shots, which is the usual strategy against the big team, so I won't say more.

"Anyway, win this game and let Bayer Leverkusen fight for fourth place thoroughly! ……”

On the home team's side, Hyypia decided to continue with the tactics of the first half after careful consideration.

He watched Ajax's away game against Hamburg, and De Boer did not calm down when the team was behind, and directly let the team defend and attack, but was instantly defeated by Hamburg.

He's going to learn that lesson.

Keep holding on and fight Hamburg's counterattack!

Of course, there needs to be a change in the pace of the game.

That is to increase the pressure and scramble in the midfield, and see the red with the hamburger bayonets!

Since the technology is not as good as you, then fight with you for physical fitness and will, which is actually to fight for consumption.

This is actually the strategy of many weak teams when they meet strong teams, and now Hyypia is putting himself in the position of a weak team.

And when the opponent collapses, Nale Leverkusen's chance will come.

It's just that Hyypia knows that Hamburg is not a fuel-efficient lamp, and Pan Yi has always attached great importance to physical fitness, and it is impossible for Leverkusen not to pay the price if they want to exhaust their physical energy.

So Hyypia demanded that Bayer Leverkusen's players run to death in the second half!

He once looked at a statistic from the media, and the top players in the Bundesliga this season's ranking of total distance traveled by players were Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund.

Hamburg's players are relatively far behind.

This gave confidence to Hyypia, who has never used such "high-tech data" to judge the situation.

This shows that Leverkusen should be stronger than Hamburg in terms of individual physical fitness of the players!

So, he's going to take advantage of the team's strength and bring down Hamburg completely.

……

All of a sudden, the clock was 70 minutes.

In the first 25 minutes of the second half, the two sides mainly fought around the centre circle, and there were not many shots on goal.

Jamie Gundy had a chance to blast a shot into the corner of the box, but he couldn't hold back the ball and the ball flew just a few centimetres over the crossbar.

Bayer Leverkusen, on the other hand, came close to equalising from a corner, but Cruise flew wide with a header in front of the goalkeeper, proving that the team's lack of shooting skills is the main culprit behind their current drop in the rankings.

Of course, it is undeniable that Bayer Leverkusen, who are behind, still show great resilience.

They were able to withstand Hamburg's hard-hitting attack and were able to take advantage of the limited opportunities they had to threaten.

And everyone can see that the consumption of both sides is really big now, and the players on the field are sweating like rain.

That's true for Bayer Leverkusen, and it's also true for Hamburg.

But the players on both sides are still going on and persevering.

In contrast, Hamburg's players seem to be a little more relaxed, with their feet clearly lighter than those of Bayer Leverkusen.

This made Hyypia on the sidelines feel a little inappropriate.

Under normal circumstances, Leverkusen's current defensive formation, because it does not require players to do too much interspersed running, but only needs to be meticulous in the overall formation, the physical consumption should be lower than that of Hamburg.

After all, Hamburg has to defend again, and has to find ways to switch positions and run in, so it is obvious that there are more things to do on the field, and the consumption will be greater.

But how do you feel like your players can't outrun the Hamburgers?

At this time, Pan Yi also began to change.

Aleksandar Mitrovic up, Vardy down.

Makoto Hasebe is up, Casemiro is down.

Paulinho up, De Bruyne down.

These substitutions, except for Mitrovic who came on the court to improve the high point and fulcrum ability of the frontcourt, the other two are to replace players with relatively large physical consumption and replace them with new forces.

In Pan Yi's 433 formation, based on the same game time, the order of physical energy consumption from the largest to the smallest should be:

1. Two central midfielders: all-round midfielders and pseudo-wingers, which are the positions that Kante and De Bruyne are playing now. Because they often have to play the role of connecting the upper and lower levels, whether it is offensive or defensive, they have to do it themselves, and the consumption is naturally huge.

2. The back waist is the defensive back in the middle. Casemiro's main task is to defend, but he will also take care of insertion, and the cost is not small.

3. Two wingers, that is, double inside forwards. Son Heung-min and Mohamed Salah are the main flashpoints on either side of the pitch, often breaking through with the ball and using speed to get on the ball at high speed to receive passes from teammates. Coupled with the need to press the opposing defenders, the consumption of physical energy is naturally indispensable.

4. Two fullbacks. Similar to wingers, but Robertson and Carvajal can still have "rest moments" such as left and right, right and left, and the cost is smaller than that of wingers.

5. Center. Mainly responsible for the competition and tackling in the penalty area, as well as pressing the central defenders. Since the distance is less than that of the wing, the consumption will be less.

6. Two central defenders. Needless to say, there must be the least amount of running in the whole field.

7. Goalkeeper. Even Neuer wouldn't have run more than 10,000 meters, right?

Therefore, when making substitutions, in addition to some necessary tactical purposes, Pan Yi gives priority to midfielders and wingers, which can ensure the normal operation of the team's tactics.

After all, when a player's physical strength drops, it will affect the execution of the tactic.

Of course, this time Pan Yi replaced Casemiro and De Bruyne, but not Kante, purely because Kante's physical fitness is fantastic!

I'm still running around the field.

Shortly after Pan Yi's substitution, the live TV camera was given to the sidelines.

Found in the home command area, Hyypia was already walking around a little frantically.

He couldn't hide his anxiety and apprehension.

The game is approaching 80 minutes, that is, it has entered the closing stage, but the situation on the field is still so stale, and even Hamburg seems to be getting more and more able to run!

What about slamming the opponent after they have eaten them up?

Okay, our players can run better than them?

What's going on?

Is the data wrong?

……

Of course, the data is not wrong, and in terms of individual total distance runs, Bayer Leverkusen players do rank above Hamburg.

However, Hyypia just doesn't understand the basic principles of statistics.

All he saw was a personal ranking.

And if he looks at the running data of the whole team, he will find that Hamburg is unbeatable, far ahead!

Pan Yi's rotation this season has been staggering.

In the high-consumption positions mentioned above, Pan Yi has hardly let players play two or three games in a row, and he will often replace them to rest when the overall situation is decided.

And there are also some players who only play more time in the big games in the Champions League and less in the league.

In such a situation, what individual total distance you go to compare, how can Hamburg beat other teams?

Even when it comes to the average distance traveled per game, the Hamburg players don't necessarily have an advantage.

But if you take a little more detail and compare the player's running per unit time, then the Hamburg player will soon dominate the leaderboard!

Of course, no one would do that.

But the team's running stats speak for themselves.

The difference between these data shows how successful Pan Yi is in rotation.

There are 26 players in the first team, and every one of them has played, and all of them have been more than one or two games, or garbage time.

It is the account book with the fewest appearances, at least three or four appearances, and there are goals and assists in the account.

Pintus' already excellent physical fitness of the players, coupled with such a "rain and dew" rotation policy, has made Hamburg comfortable on three fronts this season, and the two can be said to complement each other.

In contrast, although Leverkusen's players can be considered to run, in a long week of double games, the iron man will also grind into a needle.

Fighting with burgers? Think too much!

……

“Goallllllllllllllllllllllllllll!!!!!!!”

"In the 90th minute, Hamburg scored again!"

"This time, Hamburg took advantage of Bayer Leverkusen's all-or-nothing pressure and a chance to play a beautiful counterattack."

Paulinho ran with the ball from midfield, took it to the edge of the box and then distributed it to the right, and Salah got it!

"This goal completely killed the game!"

"Bayer Leverkusen kept the whole game, but conceded a goal in the last minute of each half, and in the end they had to lose at home!"

In fact, the arrival of this goal should be expected.

When Hyypia realised that his players might not be able to run out of Hamburg and that the game was running out, he had no choice but to let his players launch a final comeback.

But how can the current Leverkusen drag their exhausted bodies after a full run, and then launch an attack on the combative Hamburg position?

Instead, he made his originally tight line of defense a little loose.

Hamburg took advantage of this opportunity to instigate an offensive run by the running maniac Violent Bird, which resulted in a goal.

0:2, this score can already allow the players of Hamburg to celebrate the victory in advance.

……

In the post-match press conference, Bayer Leverkusen manager Hyypia finally conceded defeat.

"I have to congratulate Hamburg, they were the better side," he said. I also admit that Hamburg will be the strongest contenders for the Bundesliga title this season! ”

Later, Hyypia also said that it was not time for Leverkusen to give up.

As long as the team performs better, I believe there will be a chance to turn the situation around and get back to the front.

Because the league is not yet halfway through, it is too early to talk about giving up on winning the championship. The difference of 9 points is indeed huge, but it is not so big that it is completely desperate.

There are too many teams that excel in the early stages of the league but collapse in the late stages, especially in the Bundesliga, and the list goes on.

It's just that being able to make Hyypia say this kind of thing in public is enough to prove that after Hamburg won this game, Hyypia was indeed convinced of Pan Yi.

With such a tough defense, he couldn't stop Hamburg from scoring, and Hyypia really didn't have any tricks!

And Pan Yi first praised the excellent performance of the players and talked about the goal at the end of the first half:

'We did an excellent job of using set-pieces. The lads were very smart and the first-half free-kick was a quick takeaway that drew on some of the experience of the usual game. ”

"Actually, this kind of free-kick is not something we have practiced in training, but it comes from the wisdom of the players themselves. Kevin De Bruyne even remembered to consult the referee before taking the penalty to prevent the quick shot from being disallowed. ”

"It can be seen that it is our witty mind, rich experience and on-the-spot decisions that allow us to find a breakthrough to break through the opponent's secret defense, which completely changes the situation on the field!"

"I'm very glad I have such a group of good players and it's an honor to coach them!"

Pan Yi then mentioned that this match will be an important juncture, and winning the victory against Bayer Leverkusen will make Hamburg more confident.

"It fully proves that the rotation system we have adhered to, the tactical strategy we have adopted, and the hard work and sweat of all of us from the beginning of the season to the present, are worth it!"

'Scoring in the last two halves also shows that our players have been focused and in good physical condition.

"It's all very good quality. And such qualities can take us further! ”

……

On the second day of the match, the German media also rushed to praise Hamburg's performance.

In addition to Bayer Leverkusen's loss to Hamburg to open up the points gap, Dortmund also lost 1:2 away to Wolfsburg in this round! There is already a six-point gap between them and Hamburg.

Only the mighty Bayern beat Augsburg 3-0 at home, and they are still following Hamburg.

But compared to the difficulty of Hamburg's away win over Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern's victory seems to be nothing to mention.

The Hamburg Morning Post said, "From this game, it is not difficult to see that Hamburg is the most championship-looking team in the Bundesliga so far this season!" When facing Hamburg, the traditional powerhouse of the Bundesliga, Bayer Leverkusen, is like a little daughter-in-law who beats and scolds, and she doesn't dare to let go of a fart! ”

The Bild newspaper said: "The performance of Hamburg was convincing both in terms of process and result. Everyone must admit that they are indeed the strongest contenders for the Bundesliga title this season. ”

Even the "Süddeutsche Zeitung", which has never been compatible with Hamburg, has to admit this time that this "North King" is likely to really be as famous as the "South King". For Bayern Munich, this team from the north will be a real threat again!

This is not only an affirmation of Hamburg, but also an affirmation of Pan Yi.

Even bookmakers have revised their odds to win the Bundesliga this season.

Now Hamburg's odds to win the title are starting to shake off Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen, and are close to Bayern Munich in second place.

Although this represents the bookmaker's optimism, it also shows that they still feel that the traditional powerhouse Bayern still has a chance to overtake Hamburg in the subsequent fixtures and continue to top the Bundesliga!

……

After playing Bayer Leverkusen, Hamburg finally had a respite and a little more than a week of rest.

Pan Yi gave everyone in the team two days off in one go, which can be regarded as a reward for their recent excellent performance.

And for the players who are now in high morale and have a good professional attitude, the two-day holiday will not affect their form.

Then they were at home to the challenge of Hannover 96.

Hamburg also won this game very easily.

In just eight minutes of the opening game, Hamburg was grabbed by Wu Lei in the penalty area and hit a powerful volley with his left foot, and the ball flew straight to the bottom left corner of the goal.

Just before half-time, Jamie Vardy scored again, 2-0.

After the rematch in the second half, Robertson stepped forward with an assist and a long-range shot to expand the score to 3:0, which basically killed the suspense of the game.

Hannover 96 only scored a face-saving goal in stoppage time from Hungarian international Justie.

In the end, Hamburg won 3-1 at home against Hannover 96.

However, the focus of attention of the German media and fans in this round is not here in Hamburg.

Because on the second day, the Bundesliga ushered in this season's national derby, Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich!

It was also Klopp's first head-to-head meeting with Pep Guardiola in the Bundesliga.

Pan Yi also specially took Inzaghi and Nalgersmann to the stands of the Westphalian Stadium to watch the game together.

After all, these two teams, especially Bayern, are absolute obstacles on Hamburg's way to winning the championship!

Watching their games live is always helpful in analysing their tactics and player characteristics.

Besides, putting aside the study of opponents, just this wonderful duel is also worth watching by "fan" Pan Yi!

Today, the Westphalia Stadium is full, with more than 80,000 fans waving yellow flags and holding up yellow and black scarves, making the atmosphere feel like a war.

And the fighting method between the two famous marshals is also very interesting.

Klopp's side is a more regular 4231.

Forward: Robert Lewandowski.

Front: Reuss, Mkhitaryan, Blaszczykovski.

Defenders: Shaheen, Bender.

Defenders: Dürm, Friedrich, Papastathopoulos, Grosskreutz.

Goalkeeper: Weidenfeller.

Pep Guardiola's side is a bit interesting.

He discharged an atypical 4141!

Muller and Arjen Robben both went to play as wing-back, and even more surprisingly, Lahm also played as a central midfielder.

It can be said that this is another work of Gua Shuai.

Forward: Mandzukic.

Midfielders: Muller, Kroos, Lahm, Robben.

Defender: Javi Martinez.

Defenders: Alaba, Dante, Boateng, Raphinha.

Goalkeeper: Manuel Neuer.

Seeing this starting list, Pan Yi smiled: "It's worthy of being a melon handsome, you can come up with some new tricks every time!" ”

Nagelsmann and Inzaghi also nodded their heads.

Who's to say it isn't?

Everyone thought that Guardiola would play against Klopp, and would use his best 433 formation to fight Dortmund, but now he has chosen a more defensive formation to play.

Moreover, putting Lahm, who has stronger defensive ability, in the middle of the midfield, and abandoning the more "conventional" Thiago, Götze and others, I feel that Guardiola must implement the concept of defense to the end.

But the question is, are these Bayern players familiar with this formation?

Lahm did play at the back as well, but is it appropriate to put him in a position close to a forward midfield?

And here's the thing......

It's familiar, and it's appropriate.

Throughout the game, Bayern played evenly and steadily, and did not give Dortmund too many chances.

And Bayern's strength only started in the second half.

On 55 minutes, Pep Guardiola made his first substitution, with Gotze replacing Mandzukic.

Then Thiago came on and replaced Boateng!

These two somewhat confusing substitutions paid off.

Gotze had his first touch of the ball past his former club to give Bayern a lead at Borussia Dortmund.

Then Robben and Muller also scored one after another, and in the end, Bayern defeated Dortmund 3:0!

……

"It's a tactical victory."

After watching the game, Inzaghi couldn't help but praise it.

Pan Yi also nodded in agreement, and he was also relieved that Inzaghi could now see the thoughts of these famous marshals.

Bayern's victory was due to Pep Guardiola's adjustment in the second half.

After exerting more energy and energy from Borussia Dortmund in the first half, they replaced centre-forward Mandzukic and centre-back Boateng, but switched to a strikerless team with two midfielders.

At this time, the positions of the players in Bayern's original formation also changed.

Defender Javi Martinez dropped back more and was almost a new centre-back.

Lahm moved to Martinez's position as a lone midfielder.

In front of Lahm, Muller, Kroos, Robben, Thiago, Gotze and other five used skillful skills and combinations to firmly control the midfield and began to launch counter-attacks on Dortmund's hinterland.

Bayern's first goal was scored by Götze breaking into the penalty area and scoring easily after several exquisite combinations by Robben, Thiago, Gotze and others.

And once the first goal is scored, it will not be too late for Bayern to follow up with the goal.

At this time, Klopp has not yet reacted from Bayern's sudden change of formation, and has not been able to respond in time.

At least at this time, Klopp is still a certain gap from Guardiola!

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(End of chapter)