Chapter 16: Do You Know Survivorship Bias?

"Why did I say that there is a logical loophole in Professor Zhao's words?"

"It's easy!"

"Because of survivorship bias..."

Ye Bai's words came from the bottom of his heart and sounded loudly.

"Professor Zhao should have heard the term survivor bias, right?"

"I'm sure you're not unfamiliar with the word."

"It means that you can only see the results of a certain screening, and you are not aware of the process of screening, so you ignore the key information that has been filtered out."

"This phenomenon is very common in daily life."

For example, many people come to the conclusion that "reading is useless" because they see that some people still become bosses and make a lot of money without going to school well. But ignore those who are unknown or even lost their souls because they did not go to school properly. ”

"For example, when you persuade the people around you to quit smoking, they will always say, "Look at the person who has smoked all his life, and now he is old, isn't his health fine?"

"But there are many more people who have died of illness because of smoking, and they can't see it, they can only see the survivors."

"Then please tell me, the people who don't go to school well are the people who become bosses and make a lot of money? Or are there many people who are unknown or even lost their souls? ”

This question reminded the audience in the live broadcast room of many survivor biases on weekdays.

They all began to swipe their opinions on the screen.

"That's right, as soon as Ye Bai said this, the phenomena that we didn't notice on weekdays have all appeared."

"There are a few people who don't go to school well and can be bosses and make a lot of money."

"Whew! Even if you study hard and get admitted to university, few people can be bosses. ”

"There are still people who lose money when they are bosses."

"I didn't notice this truth, Brother Ye didn't say it."

"After this live broadcast, I have gained a little more knowledge."

Director Meng Gang has been paying attention to the situation in the live broadcast room at this time.

Seeing netizens swiping the screen, he remembered the current show of "Expert Advice", and it seems that there is also a survivor bias.

Especially the increasing popularity of the show, if it weren't for the war of words between experts and Ye Bai, where would there be such good results.

Just thinking about it, Ye Bai's voice sounded again.

"The answer is obvious!"

After Ye Bai took a breath, he drank some water before continuing.

"Let's take back the example given by Professor Zhao above, let's take a look."

"Wang Si Cong Wang Gongzi, he is a rich second generation and a rich second generation with a lot of personality, and he is more flamboyant."

"Because of his flamboyant personality, we all know that he is still unmarried and has not had children. But what about the other rich or the second generation? ”

"To be born or not to be born, do we need to tell us about these ordinary people? That's people's freedom and choice! ”

"Then the question arises again, do you think there are more rich people who have children, or more rich people who don't have children?"

When Ye Bai said such a long sentence again, the audience in the live broadcast room was silent.

The director, supporters, and audience were all silent.

Isn't this confusing?

After a short period of silence, the audience in the live broadcast room of Hangzhou Satellite TV reacted first and expressed their opinions one after another.

"There must be many rich people who have children, and they can afford to have children."

"There are very few rich people who don't have children, after all, people have mines to inherit."

"There are countless news of rich people breaking out of illegitimate children, and I can't see too many of them."

"That is, I hope that experts will stop fooling us people with this kind of lucky person bias."

After hearing these words, the audience in Ye Bai's live broadcast room increased their sense of admiration for him.

"Ye Bai is so handsome, what he said makes sense!"

"Brother Ye, you are really a representative of clear logic, amazing."

"The reality is so cruel, it's too difficult for us."

"Go on, it's too real."

The atmosphere at the scene was still very quiet, and Professor Zhao's face became more and more bad.

This young man can always find some "bizarre" opinions to justify himself.

He glanced at the audience at the scene and felt that they all seemed to have been persuaded by Ye Bai, how could this work?

He cleared his throat and rushed to speak.

"Survivorship bias itself is fine. But it doesn't apply to everything, because not everything is lucky. ”

"At least, when it comes to having children and providing for the elderly, we can control it ourselves instead of attributing it to luck or misfortune!"

At this time, Ye Bai was really about to be laughed at by the expert in front of him, why was what he said so "funny".

Who doesn't give birth because he doesn't want to?

Who doesn't give birth because he can't afford it!

Those who are willing to have children will naturally be born only if they can afford to raise them!

Thinking of this, Ye Bai tried his best to restrain his emotions and spoke.

"Professor Zhao, now that your suggestion is being implemented smoothly, most of the poor young people are rushing to have children because they are afraid of being punished."

"Since everyone is rushing to give birth, it means that no one needs to pay more taxes to raise children for others."

"After all, does the child have to be raised by himself, so how should he raise it?"

"Salarymen who only have a few thousand dollars a month, do they have to use all their money to support their children? If you still don't have enough money, what should I do? ”

After saying so much in one breath, Ye Baiyue was emotionally charged when he said it, and by the end his hand had already clenched into a fist.

"I can only deduct it from five insurances and one housing fund, and I can only hope that my children can be filial to themselves when they grow up."

"Then may I ask, when this situation really comes, what will happen to the country's taxes?"

Hiss...

The audience in the live broadcast room, who didn't think about it so much, gasped and agreed with Ye Bai's remarks.

"That's great, everyone is rushing to give birth, what about the country's taxes?"

"The wool comes out of the sheep, and experts may not understand this truth!"

"We're just poor people, and we didn't steal and rob, so why don't you let us go."

"When we young people are soft persimmons, aren't we?"

"Ye Bai is mighty, I support you."

Professor Zhao didn't seem surprised by Ye Bai's question.

He lifted the Kings glasses on the bridge of his nose and said calmly.

"Huaxia can now divide people into two kinds. One is the rich who account for 3%, and the other is the poor who account for 97%. ”

"I think I can rely on 3% of the rich to pay taxes and help 97% of the poor raise their children!"

Just when he wanted to talk eloquently, Ye Bai couldn't control his emotions anymore and exploded directly.

"What the hell are you talking about?"

"Professor Zhao, did I hear it wrong? I don't know how you came to this point! ”

"It's just an unrealistic fantasy."

"Do you think you can represent the 3 percent of the rich and give us 97 percent of the poor this promise?"

"It's ridiculous."