Chapter 417: High Risk Assessment
Alvin Rockefeller also fell into deep thought after hearing Marshall's words, of course he knew about road construction, and if there was any money to be made from road construction, the answer was yes.
However, the income of this business is too simple, and it requires heavy capital investment, and the upfront construction time may take three to five years, during which time there is no profit at all.
And these consortia know very well that the entire European aid package is now planned according to four fiscal years.
In other words, when this road is built, it may be that the European aid program will come to an end. Everyone knows what Europe will be like at that time.
More importantly, everyone understood in their hearts that the European aid program had a more important goal, which was to curb the infiltration and development of the CPSU. Look at the various industries in the areas controlled by the CPSU, almost all of them were nationalized.
Whether it is these big conglomerates or the various capitalists, who would be willing to take such a big risk to make such a heavy capital investment? If you don't do it, you will lose all your money when the time comes.
At present, most of these people who participate in this program are actually coming for the state's aid funds, and in addition, they want to take the opportunity to buy some high-value industries in European countries.
However, once a purely fixed asset project such as a highway is built, it cannot be withdrawn at all, and once it is nationalized, it will lose all its capital.
There is only one way to recover the investment from the road, and that is to obtain the concession of the road, which is commonly known as the right to collect tolls, and the fees collected are used to reimburse the cost of road repair, maintenance, operation and labor expenses.
Therefore, such projects generally need to be led by state-owned capital, but the current European countries obviously do not have the ability and funds to take the lead in restoring the road transportation network within their borders.
At this time, the emergence of the European aid program obviously made many countries find a big wrong.
However, it is clear that the United States is not going to take the lead in its aid to Europe, and the amount of funds in the entire aid program is only $13.1 billion, which may be more than $1 billion per country when it is distributed to so many countries in Europe.
If the money is used to build roads in Europe, it may be barely enough to connect some major cities, and this is still when there are already road foundations.
However, the funds for this aid program need to be used to procure technology, equipment and basic living materials from the United States.
If you want to build roads, you can't buy steel and cement directly from the United States. How much American capital can be brought into this way? Don't say that American taxpayers won't agree, and even consortia won't support it.
Rockefeller, who knew the situation in the United States, was of course very aware of these situations, so he frowned when he heard Marshall raise this difficult question.
Speak directly:
"We're just providing assistance, how do we make it look like we owe each other?"
Marshall looked embarrassed when he said this, glanced at Charles Morgan, and said helplessly:
"These countries in Europe also understand that our aid is not actually gratuitous, so they are a little bit of a lion."
This look was immediately captured by Fang Lang, and at this moment he couldn't help but wonder if all this would be a trap set for him by the Morgan consortium, wanting him to stand up and take on this business.
After all, the appearance of Rockefeller was clearly an accident.
Now Fang Lang can't see the conspiracy yet, but he knows very well that no matter what, this business cannot be undertaken by one company alone.
There are so many consortiums that want to participate in the aid program, and others have put forward conditions, and one family can't take over this mess, and others are crazy to make money!
Thinking of this, Fang Lang quietly glanced at Morgan and the others, and then slowly spoke:
"This kind of project can be completely applied for by the governments of various countries and the banks!
As long as these governments can provide the right collateral, I believe it will not be a problem to raise funds to build infrastructure, right? ”
This made several members of the Morgan family frown, after all, there are several consortia here, only their Morgan family started by relying on finance, and it must be them who can provide loans.
But now they are clearly reluctant to invest heavily in places that are still uncertain.
In fact, the reason why Fang Lang felt that there was a conspiracy here, but he couldn't find out where the problem was, was that he had a vision that could see through the fog of history.
Be able to know what the future history will look like.
But neither the conglomerates nor the politicians of this period have full confidence in the current form. Now both in Turkey and Greece on the front lines of resistance to the CPSU, or in other European countries such as Germany, Italy, France, etc.
There are a large number of political parties and ordinary people who believe in the CPSU in the country, and even the parties established in several countries have become the largest local parties.
This is also the reason why the political situation in various countries during this period was chaotic.
And the United States and the United Kingdom, as the boss and second boss of capitalism, of course, have to find a way to maintain the order of the capitalist world, which is why Britain is still trying its best to support Turkey and Greece in the face of its own very difficult circumstances.
Because they knew very well that if they could not give the people of Turkey and Greece a good life under their social order, they would not hesitate to throw themselves into the arms of the CPSU.
And once Turkey and Greece fall, the whole of Europe will lose like dominoes, a situation that is absolutely unacceptable to the American and British governments, which represent the interests of the big bourgeoisie and the big landlord class.
This is also the reason why the United States insists on pushing forward with this European aid plan, knowing that it may be strongly supported by the domestic population.
Even in history, when Marshall made a speech on the steps of the Harvard Garden Memorial Church announcing that the United States was ready to help the revival of Europe, in order to avoid the attention of American newspapers to the speech, no American reporters were invited to the speech, and Truman deliberately held a press conference on the same day to divert the attention of the domestic media.
Fang Lang, who came from later generations, knew very well that this European aid plan had actually achieved his goal.
Of course, this plan is only one of the means to maintain the capitalist world order, and it is already January 1947, and in March, Lao Du will deliver a speech at the joint session of the two houses of Congress, declaring that all countries in the world today are faced with the choice of two different ways of life.
And this is precisely the announcement of the beginning of "Lao Du Doctrine", and at the same time marks the official beginning of the confrontation between the two world hegemonisms.
The people standing in the fog of history can't see the future, but they can see the strength of the CPSU, so even the old American people with artillery battles don't have absolute confidence that they are definitely the victorious side.
Therefore, everyone has a strong wariness of this kind of total asset investment project in the road transportation category.
It was only after the Lao Du Doctrine was officially implemented in Greece and Turkey, and the United States sent troops to successfully intervene in the Greek civil war and won the victory, that the confidence of these big business groups and capitalists to resist the CPSU was slowly established.
As more and more victories were achieved, the various consortia and big capitalists were fully convinced that they could achieve the final victory, and the investment in European countries became greater and greater.
In other words, although these big conglomerates and big capitalists see the huge benefits behind this European aid plan, they still have some doubts about whether this plan will succeed in the end.
Everyone's attention is now mainly focused on the $13.1 billion aid that the US government can pull out, so the major consortia do not want to invest large sums of money in European countries now.
This is also the reason why the European aid plan has been prepared for a long time, but it has not been implemented immediately, but after the announcement of the "Lao Du Doctrine" and with the support of the powerful military force of the United States, it was first rehearsed in Greece and Turkey.
It was only after both Greece and Turkey had won that the entire aid package was officially announced the following year, and it was quickly launched, and the process was fraught with blood and violence.
Almost all of them were carried out with the cooperation of the US military, which is why the United States in later generations had nearly 1,000 military bases around the world.
Of course, these are the specific directions of follow-up implementation, although the current various consortia are not absolutely sure, but they are very clear about how much benefit this plan can bring.
With the lure of such great interests, the capitalists will try to bring about the implementation of this plan, and whether or not it will trigger a new world war is not a matter for the capitalists to care about.
After all, they don't need to go into battle to fight, on the contrary, they can make another war profit.
Therefore, this so-called European aid package has never been a purely financial aid program. Rather, it is a icing used to wrap shells.
While European countries accept this assistance, they must also accept military intervention from the United States, which, of course, is packaged under the cloak of NATO allies.
Fang Lang even suspected that it was precisely because of this that Truman would choose to let a five-star admiral take up the post of civilian secretary of state.
The reason why people are hesitant to take such infrastructure projects is because of risk assessment considerations.
Some people may also think that since they are not sure, they can put it aside first! It's never too late to talk about that when the time comes. But in fact, before these big conglomerates start to implement such a big plan, they must first do a good job in the distribution of benefits.
Otherwise, when the time comes, everyone will know that there can be a lot of money to be made here, and everyone will swarm in one direction, won't it be chaotic?
And the conundrum that General Marshall has raised now is exactly the hard bone that everyone is unwilling to take over.
If these benefits are not distributed before the official start of the plan, everyone only wants to eat meat and not gnaw bones, which will inevitably affect the subsequent plan for everyone to get rich together.
That's why Marshall said it was a difficult problem.
Although Fang Lang's words made Morgan's brows furrow, it made Marshall's eyes light up, as a military strategist and politician, his purpose was not whether the consortium could make money, or how much money it could make.
Rather, whether his political ideals and ambitions can be realized, when he heard Fang Lang's words, he understood that there was room for manipulation.
It's not that he doesn't understand such a simple truth, but he has already had a round of communication with the Morgan consortium and other consortia on this matter, but everyone is obviously unwilling to invest funds in this kind of asset-heavy project with slow results and huge risks.
His uninvited visit today was also deliberately asked by the Morgan family to throw this question out in front of Fang Lang again to create pressure on Fang Lang.
After all, now Fang Lang is staring at his share of grain exports, only thinking about getting the most benefits from the whole plan, but he has not paid enough price, and it is time for him to understand that there is no free lunch in the world.
The reason why these big conglomerates can eat the fattest and largest meat is because they also have to face the hardest bones to gnaw.
I didn't expect this guy to say lightly, just let the governments of the world take out mortgages, and he still needs to say it? If it weren't for the risk of political instability, whoever didn't know that they could take out a loan to build a road and collect fees to make money.
But the regime of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union doesn't care about you! All the things of the capitalists are directly confiscated and confiscated! If the plan is not successful, this kind of asset-heavy investment can be a business with no money to return to.
Even their Morgan family may be directly bankrupt and liquidated, who would dare to take such a risk?
"Governments are certainly willing to provide the right collateral and even make appropriate concessions in other areas such as the length of the concession.
As long as road traffic can be restored as soon as possible, the local economy will certainly grow rapidly.
This is very important for the rapid recovery of the entire European economy, so I really hope that gentlemen will seriously consider it. ”
At this time, Marshall didn't care about Morgan's eyes, but quickly responded to Fang Lang's words. After all, he came here not only to help the Morgan family, but more importantly, to find a solution to the problem.
Everyone understands what he says, but at this juncture, no one wants to take on this high-risk business.
Avery Morgan, who has always been close to Fang Lang, tilted his head to Fang Lang and whispered:
"It's not that people don't know the importance of transportation, or that people don't want to invest in road construction. The main reason is that the risk is too high, take Greece now, the Greek Democratic Army formed last year has gone through several confrontations with government forces.
Far from being wiped out, the power has grown stronger and stronger, and now it has a team of nearly 30,000 people.
If, once the Democratic Army wins, all our early investment will be wasted. ”
After hearing Avery Morgan's words, Fang Lang said with some puzzlement:
"Haven't our troops gone in and intervened?"
Fang Lang didn't lower his voice when he said this, everyone heard it, and everyone looked at Fang Lang with a look of surprise.
When Marshall heard this, he coughed a little embarrassedly and said:
"Ahem. This is the internal affair of someone else's country, so how can we casually send troops to interfere? ”
This time it was Fang Lang's turn to be surprised, he quickly reacted, why would everyone give such a high risk assessment for road construction, it turned out that Qiu Fatzi from Britain gave a speech in the United States.
But at this time, the American Lao Du did not know whether Lao Du had not yet thought of Lao Duism, or whether it was in the brewing stage.
In short, the Yankees have obviously not yet begun to form the ideology of the world police in later generations, and have begun to dictate the internal affairs of various countries in the world.
More or less face, not unscrupulously regard themselves as the saviors of the capitalist world.
(End of chapter)