"According to the historical process, Cao Cao slaughtered Xuzhou this year, and Zhang Miao of Chen Palace in the rear suddenly betrayed and welcomed Lu Bu into Yanzhou, and the two sides fought until next year, and Cao Cao defeated Lu Bu to recapture Yanzhou."

"That is to say, Cao Cao will be in the weakest period for a long time from this year to next year, and if you attack him at this time, it is very likely that Cao Cao will be eliminated."

"But it's hard to say, I still have too little information in my hands. I don't know how many people there are in Lu Bu, how many people there are in Cao Cao, and what the situation of the two of them is now, but at least I know that Xuzhou's current situation is very bad. ”

Shen Chen deduced in his heart, although he felt that if he could take advantage of Cao Lu's struggle in Yanzhou to offer advice to Tao Qian and ask him to send someone to stab Cao Cao in the back, maybe the situation in the world would be very different.

But he didn't know the current number of soldiers and horses, the grain and grass situation of Cao Cao and Lu Bu, and the current situation, so it was not easy to deduce it directly. And Xuzhou is too weak, and Tao Qian has no strength.

Therefore, if Lu Bu's strength is not strong, with Tao Qian's men and horses mixed into them, it will be easy to be eliminated by Cao Cao.

At that time, Yuan Shu, who was already going to attack Xuzhou this year, would easily occupy Xuzhou, and at that time history would only develop in a worse direction.

Thinking of this, Shen Chen decided to analyze and reverse the strength of Cao Cao and Lu Bu.

He remembered that when he was in Xuzhou before, Tao Qian's army reached forty or fifty thousand at its peak, and Cao Cao's army would never be weaker than Tao Qian's, because he captured one million people of Qingzhou Yellow Turbans, and won 300,000 Qingzhou Yellow Turbans, and selected its elite and at least forty or fifty thousand people.

In the battle of Pengcheng, Cao Cao and Tao Qian's troops were about the same, and as a result, Tao Qian's army was almost wiped out in a big battle. Cao Cao should also have some losses, so it is more reasonable to estimate Cao Cao's total strength at about 40,000 at present.

What about Lu Bu?

Lu Bu escaped from Yuan Shao, and there must only be a trap camp and a part of the cavalry retinue around him, and there should be only a few thousand people at full battle, and there may not even be so many.

His main strength should come from Zhang Miao, and Zhang Miao is Chen Liutaishou, and it is impossible for him to have more troops than Cao Cao, the Yanzhou pastor.

Even if it is calculated according to more, at most 20,000 people, then Lu Bu's strength is probably only half of Cao Cao's.

I remember that in history, Cao Cao was defeated first and then won, and was first broken by Lu Bu when he was in Puyang, and then the two sides were in a stalemate for 100 days, and finally retreated because of the great drought.

Lü Bu retreated to the area of Shanyang and Jiyin, while Cao Cao retreated to the area of Dongping, and it was during this period that Cao Cao was so depressed that he almost sent his family to Yuan Shaona as hostages.

But Cao Cao's downfall was not because of the lack of soldiers and horses, but because of the lack of food and grass.

It was Cao Cao who asked Yuan Shao to give him some food, and Yuan Shao used this to blackmail Cao Cao to let him move his family to Yecheng, and finally Cheng Yu dissuaded him, and offered a plan to use human breast as military food, and reluctantly helped Cao Cao survive this disaster.

This also shows from the side that Cao Cao's troops are more than Lu Bu.

Because Cao Cao was attacked by the rear when he was on the eastern expedition to Tao Qian, in order to deal with Tao Qian, the grain and grass must have been more sufficient, and as a result, in the stage of holding off with Lu Bu, Cao Cao's grain was exhausted first, which means that Cao Cao's soldiers consumed more grain quickly.

And Lu Bu definitely didn't bring any grain when he escaped from Yuan Shaona, and the grain and grass from Cao Cao's eastern expedition to Tao Qian Yanzhou must have been concentrated in his hands. As a result, after Lu Bu arrived in Yanzhou, he still had the ability to hold Cao Cao for a hundred days, which was enough to prove that Lu Bu's soldiers and horses were indeed much less than Cao Cao's.

If calculated in this way, then Cao Cao's army is about 40,000 people, and food is relatively scarce.

Lu Bu's troops supported 20,000, combined with the fact that he was able to defeat Liu Bei, who had almost 10,000 troops, then the total strength was probably between 10,000 and 20,000.

It was difficult for such a force to compete with Cao Cao, and the early victory with Cao Cao in Puyang was also because Cao Cao was in a hurry because of the loss of Yanzhou at that time, and he was broken by Lu Bu's cavalry because of his impatience and command error.

Later, when Cao Cao slowed down, he slowly figured it out, and finally recaptured Yanzhou, which also proved this.

So if Liu Bei leads Xuzhou, can he attack Cao Cao at this time, and then take advantage of the situation to seize Yanzhou, come out to the west to welcome the emperor, and coerce the Son of Heaven to order the princes?

The answer is no.

Let's not say that Liu Bei's strength can't be compared with Cao Cao, just say that Lu Bu's troops are stronger than him, Liu Bei is now going to attack Cao Cao, and he will die.

is still the same sentence, the premise of the snipe and the clam competing for the profit of the fisherman is that the second and third children fight, and the boss profits.

If the eldest and the second child fight, the third child must die.

What's more, there is a person who is stronger than the eldest and second next to the third child, and it is even more impossible to profit from it.

Xingxu Liu Bei's army went north from Xuzhou to attack Dongping, and Yuan Shu occupied Xuzhou on the back foot.

So no matter how you think about it, Liu Bei is actually facing a dead end in Xuzhou.

That is, he does not have the strength to go to Yanzhou to make trouble, and when the battle between Cao Cao and Lu Bu is over, Lu Bu is driven out of Yanzhou like a lost dog, and history will still repeat itself.

"Liu Bei's strength is still too weak, and it is impossible to do anything from it."

"If this is the plot of the novel, maybe relying on the illusions of the novelists can turn things around for Liu Bei."

"But this TM is reality, the reality is that the enemy is very strong, Liu Bei is impossible to get involved in the competition for Henan, even if the weak defeat the strong, it is impossible to defeat three strong enemies at the same time!"

"So the current situation is no longer something I can change, and in the case of nothing I can do, I can only follow history, and it is best to observe from the sidelines and not interfere."

After Shen Chen deduced all the possibilities, he found that the probability of Liu Bei being able to get out of the mix in Henan was infinitely close to zero, and it was almost impossible to achieve.

Liu Bei's situation was too difficult.

Yuan Shu's army was more than 100,000, Cao Cao's army was 40,000 or 50,000, and even Lu Bu had 10,000 or 20,000 people.

And even if Liu Bei took over Tao Qian's forces, there were at most 10,000 people, among which Cao Bao and Xu Tan were still two hidden dangers, and the descendants did not exceed 3,000 troops.

Xuzhou Mu listened well, but in fact, there was only one title left, four of the five counties did not listen to the command, and one of them was slaughtered by Cao Cao, and there was almost no room for development.

This shows that Xuzhou has become a predicament, and it is useless for anyone to come.

After analyzing this, there is only one way in front of Shen Chen-that is, to leave the quagmire of war in Henan and wait for future changes.

It also happens that he will grow up to be an adult twelve years later, and the crown and table characters, when Liu Bei will also usher in the Battle of Chibi.

If you can plan well in the future, things may have other turns.

Thinking of this, Shen Chen got up from the bed.

At this time, it is twilight, the sun is gradually setting, and the afterglow of the sunset still illuminates the earth, bringing people the last ray of dawn.

Before it was dark, he went to the kitchen and poured a bowl of water to drink, intending to swallow the grain cake with the water, and get up early tomorrow to plan the relocation of the clan.

As a result, there was a sudden knock on the door outside at this time, and when I went to the front yard, I saw that it was the neighbor next door who was calling them.

"His third uncle, his third uncle?"

Aunt Seven shouted.

Shen Chen opened the door and said, "Aunt Seven, what's wrong?" ”

When Aunt Qi saw Shen Chen, she immediately smiled and said, "It's Ah Chen, what about your parents?" ”

"Ah Weng and Ah Mu have gone to the ancestral hall, and the clan elders over there are selecting clan members to protect the clansmen to move south, they will go and have a look."

Shen Chen replied.

Aunt Qi said: "Then I'll ask Ah Tao to call them back, and our family will kill two chickens and come over to eat together." ”

Killed two chickens?

Shen Chen was very surprised: "Aunt Seven, why did you suddenly kill a chicken?" ”

The seventh aunt's family and Shen Chen's family are relatively close relatives, Shen Chen's father Shen Zhen and seventh uncle Shen Min are cousins, in this generation, Shen Zhen ranks third, Shen Min ranks seventh, and the relationship between the two families is good on weekdays, and they are more diligent.

But no matter how good the relationship is, it is rare to kill chickens to entertain neighbors, after all, chickens are already a very important material in the homes of ordinary civilians, second only to cattle and sheep, and are generally used to lay eggs, not slaughtered.

For example, there are only two chickens raised by Shen Chen's family, although they are not as many as the more than 30 chickens raised by Shen Min's family, but they are usually cared for as treasures.

Aunt Qi forced a smile and said, "You also know the way of this world, isn't this about to move south?" Too many chickens are not easy to carry, your seventh uncle wants to sell all the chickens in the house, just leave two to lay eggs, and exchange for some food, but whether it is in the clan or other township pavilions, the price is very low, and now the food is more expensive than chickens, it is better to kill yourself and eat it. ”

"Alas, so that's the case, it's really difficult to survive in this world."

Shen Chen understood the reason, sighed, and said comfortingly: "But Aunt Seven, please be relieved, although migrating to the south is under the fence, it is better than losing your life." Everything will pass, and the days to come will be long. ”

"I hope so."

Aunt Qi's face was not very good-looking, and she beckoned to Shen Chen: "The chicken will be cooked immediately, Ah Chen, you will come over later, I will call Ah Tao to call your parents back." ”

"Okay."

Shen Chen nodded, and watched the seventh aunt leave.

Now the entire clan is basically disposing of property, and what cannot be brought is sold at a low price, and the property is pooled to buy mules and horses, vehicles, food, weapons, and other daily necessities.

The power of the individual seems so small and humble in the face of the whole era. If it weren't for Shen Chen, Deng Shen Er would probably not be able to suffer the fate of slaughter.

But even if he escaped the massacre, it was still difficult to rely on his own strength to move thousands of kilometers from Linyi, Shandong Province to Xiangyang, Hubei Province in this era of underdeveloped transportation.

Not to mention that there is not enough food reserves, most of the people will starve to death along the way. Just say that all kinds of bandits along the way are like combs, soldiers are like grates, and there is even a danger of being made into a human body.

Because this is a worse world, not only Cao Cao is eating people, but many deserters from the scattered princes, robbers who rob houses, and helpless homeless people are killing people and eating meat.

It's just that these things are not recorded in the official history books, but even the powerful princes have to do it, not to mention the most difficult commoners at the bottom.

Therefore, if Shen Chen wants to leave Xuzhou, he must rely on the strength of the clan and unite together to realize his idea.