194, full of hard work, from the Wall Street Journal's singing decline
In the quiet office, only the sound of using a keyboard and mouse can be heard.
As Yuan Ze continued to operate in the foreign exchange market, time was gradually passing.
Soon it was after 3 p.m.
Before the opening of the London foreign exchange market in the afternoon, due to the inactive trading of GBP/USD, Yuan Ze carefully opened a position, and the total number of positions opened was less than 10%.
But in the afternoon, when the foreign exchange market in London officially began to trade, GBP/USD, the largest on the exchange, also began to be active.
Therefore, Yuan Ze's method of building a position has gradually become bolder.
In just over two hours, he opened his position to more than 3 percent.
With a margin of $125 million and a leverage of 20 times, the short position held reached $2.5 billion.
The highest short price for GBP/USD was 1.2275, the lowest short price was 1.2238, and the average short price was 1.2254, and the short position reached 20,400 lots.
According to this short price, his forced liquidation line has increased a little more than before, to above 1.27, and the risk is lower.
In one day, he leveraged $2.5 billion in short funds, which is almost impossible to do in A-shares, and will definitely be sniped to death.
However, in the foreign exchange market, due to its large and complex nature, and the absence of a special volume statistics agency.
The probability of being sniped is slim to none.
Of course, this refers to the GBP/USD currency, which is a highly liquid currency, and the small currency that is illiquid.
In addition, I have to admit that his 20,000 short orders did put some pressure on the bulls in the intraday.
However, since he did not take the initiative to smash the market, the pressure was not great, and it did not affect the upward trend of GBP/USD during the day today.
As of 5:42 p.m., the current GBP/USD exchange rate remained above 1.2260, an increase of 1.56% on the day.
It is clear that today's bulls are stronger.
At this time, Yuan Ze temporarily ended the operation, turned his head to look at Qiao Shuang, the motionless secretary on his side, and couldn't help but smile.
He watched the foreign exchange market for eight hours in a row today, and even ate lunch in the office, and Qiao Shuang has been accompanying him.
This girl was still insisting that she was not tired, that she was fine, and that she wanted to learn skills from him.
As a result, after lunch, people couldn't hold it anymore, and their eyelids began to fight.
Until now, she was slumped in a chair with her head tilted, her hair messy, her lips parted, and the corners of her mouth still drooling, and she didn't know what she was dreaming about.
"I didn't expect this woman to have such a cute side, I really want to ...... Never mind. Yuan Ze's mind moved slightly, but he quickly shook his head again.
If he hadn't bullied Qiao Shuang enough last night, he would have had to wake her up from her sleep now.
The weather is very hot today, there is no need to cover the quilt, Yuan Ze is not worried that she will catch a cold, so he didn't disturb her sweet dreams, after turning off the computer, Yuan Ze walked to the corridor outside alone.
Today's daytime position building task has been basically completed, and Yuan Ze does not plan to move the remaining funds for the time being.
Wait until the evening when the foreign exchange market in New York opens to see if the GBP/USD exchange rate will fluctuate, and it is not too late to operate.
After taking out his mobile phone and replying to a few Yu'er's WeChat messages, Yuan Ze dialed Kang Lei's phone.
"Hey, brother? What's going on? Kang Lei's voice came.
"Brother Kang, have you and Mr. Hu started operating today?" Yuan Ze asked.
"No, isn't that still waiting for your notice? You didn't say you could do it, how dare Lao Hu and I? Kang Lei said.
Yuan Ze smiled and asked, "How is the foreign exchange account prepared?" Also, how many times is the leverage? ”
Kang Lei said: "The account is ready to be OK, and if the leverage is concerned, I talked to Lao Hu Hao, and I negotiated with Citibank for 20 times the leverage, and now I can start at any time." But I think the GBP/USD exchange rate seems to have risen a bit today, man, are we going to wait and do it, or what? ”
Yuan Ze said: "You can start it directly today, it is the European market and London time, and the US market time is after eight or nine o'clock in the evening, and the European and American market trading hours overlap at that time, the market fluctuates violently, and it is not easy to attract attention when entering the market. ”
Despite the large size of GBP/USD, it is no problem to open a position casually, and you don't have to worry too much about being sniped.
However, Yuan Ze thinks that it is better to be careful, otherwise it will be purely his own doing.
"Can you do it? Good good! Kang Lei asked excitedly: "Then brother, how many times is the leverage?" Is it 10 times to try the water first, or? ”
"10 times? Hehe, Brother Kang's pattern is small, what kind of water is still being tried in this position, and it is directly pulled to 20 times, and it is full of dry. ”
"Is it 20 times as soon as it comes up, are you sure, brother?"
"Sure!"
"Okay, listen to you, 20 times is 20 times, it's done!" Kang Lei said: "That's the first thing, I'll notify Lao Hu to come over immediately, and then I'll start doing it!" ”
"Don't be in a hurry, now find a place to fill your stomach first, and it's not too late to work hard at eight or nine o'clock in the evening."
"Hey, okay, are you coming over then?"
"I'm not coming." Yuan Ze thought for a while, and further advised: "Remember, it's a short of the GBP/USD exchange rate, or a long USD/GBP exchange rate, don't make a mistake, close the position immediately after making a mistake." ”
"Don't worry, brother, if Lao Hu and I can make a mistake, you can directly take a knife and cut off our heads for the night pot."
"Okay, then that's it, let's start the video at eight o'clock in the evening and talk again."
“OKOK。”
After Yuan Ze and Kang Lei finished the phone call, they went downstairs to the Blue Whale Pharmaceutical Company for a turn.
When she returned to the office, Qiao Shuang had already woken up slowly, stretching her waist there, pouting her peach, revealing her graceful figure, which made Yuan Ze a little warm.
Immediately, he walked up quickly and hugged her, said a few joking words, and then led her out to find a place to have dinner.
……
At eight or nine o'clock in the evening of Yanjing time, it was morning in the United States, and the foreign exchange market in New York had officially started trading.
Yuan Ze, Kang Lei, and Hu Xu connected to a video call, and while communicating, they started their short journey.
Due to this time period, the foreign exchange trading hours in London and New York coincide, which is the most active time period of the global financial market every day, and the operation can also be more open.
As of the early morning of Yanjing time, Yuan Ze successively entered three or four percent of his positions.
The margin consumption is nearly 270 million US dollars, and the position is close to 7%.
As for Kang Lei and Hu Xu, they are more tiger than Yuan Ze, and in less than three hours, they pressed eighty percent of the positions in.
If Yuan Ze hadn't insisted on telling them not to worry, the remaining two percent of the positions, and the margin for backup would not be moved, and they would have already entered the full position.
"Mr. Yuan, it's already early in the morning, do you want to continue buying?" During the video call, Hu Xu asked.
"Don't worry, today's position is enough, leave some money for now, and wait for tomorrow to see the upward momentum of GBP/USD. In addition, we also need to pay attention to the various news in the UK and the US, I feel that the inflection point should be coming soon. Yuan Ze said.
According to the news of the future event on Kang Lei's head, Yuan Ze knew that the GBP/USD would definitely go downhill next.
I don't know exactly when the reversal will start, but it should be at this point.
At the moment, it should be noted that the reversal of GBP/USD is prevented, which leads to liquidation.
As long as this is prevented, then the next three people can really lie down and count the money.
……
Thursday, August 11th.
At six o'clock in the morning of Yanjing time, trading began in the foreign exchange market in Sydney, Australia.
The trading market is dominated by Australian dollars, New Zealand dollars and US dollars.
GBP/USD is trading little, but not for nothing, fluctuating between 1.2230 and 1.2270.
In the morning, when the Tokyo foreign exchange market opened, the GBP/USD pair was still fluctuating in the range of 1.2230 to 1.2270.
It was not until the afternoon that trading began in the London foreign exchange market, when the GBP/USD pair suddenly rose and finally broke through the 1.2270 level.
It is about to rush towards the August 1 high of 1.2293, and once it breaks through this high, due to the inertia of the bullish market, it may rise for a few days.
As a result, let alone 1.2293, when the GBP/USD exchange rate came to 1.2280, it did not even break through this point, and quickly turned down.
Immediately afterwards, the big dive began to be performed on the time-sharing chart.
1.2270, 1.2255, 1.2230, directly below yesterday's close.
After that, it barely stabilized above 1.2220 and began to oscillate back and forth in the range of 1.2220 to 12250.
However, with the opening of the New York market in the evening, the GBP/USD exchange rate fell again.
This time it fell directly below 1.22, and by the end of 24 o'clock on August 11, the spot exchange rate of GBP/USD was directly pushed to 1.2180.
By 0:05 a.m. on August 12, the bulls wanted to do a wave of GBP/USD reversal, pulling the exchange rate above 1.22.
However, at 0:30, the Wall Street Journal in the United States wrote a report on the British economy titled "The British economy may fall into a long recession", and the exchange rate of GBP/USD once again started a long downward path.
Late at night, Yuan Ze's office was still brightly lit.
In the real-time video, Hu Xu said to Yuan Ze with a smile: "Mr. Yuan, all the positions on our side have been completed!" ”
Yuan Ze nodded and asked, "What is the short price, short position and specific position?" ”
Hu Xu looked down at the foreign exchange account and replied: "According to your advice yesterday, after seeing the time-sharing chart dive and stabilize, the remaining positions will all be put in, the current average short price is 1.2233, the short position is 4.12 billion US dollars, the total position is 33680 hands, and the leverage is 20 times." ”
Yuan Ze smiled: "The $4.12 billion short position, well, it's similar to the plan." ”
On the afternoon of August 11, after seeing that the GBP/USD pair was obviously unable to rush to the high of 1.2293, Yuan Ze boldly concluded that the inflection point he wanted came out.
So, he directly pulled all the positions in his account to 20 times leverage, and along with other shorts in the market, he began to sell short frantically to suppress GBP/USD.
As of the opening of the New York market in the evening, all the margin in Yuan Ze's account was used up, with a total short position of about 8 billion US dollars, an average short price of 1.2244, and a position of about 65,000 lots.
As soon as he finished his own thing, Yuan Ze immediately made a video to inform Kang Lei and Hu Xu, asking them to follow their own practices and fill the remaining 20% of the position with leverage.
They did so quickly, and ended up with a $4.12 billion short position.
Next to Hu Xu, Kang Lei asked, "Brother, how many positions did you take over there this time?" ”
Yuan Ze felt that they should be able to guess if they thought about it carefully, so he didn't hide it: "It's twice as much as yours, almost 8 billion US dollars." ”
"Damn, $8 billion, brother, you're ruthless!" Kang Lei counted his thumbs at him, and then said: "Then according to that, the three of us will have a short position of 12 billion US dollars this time."
Hey, you two say, will the three of us be the biggest shorts in GBP/USD now? ”
Yuan Ze smiled: "Who knows this?" GBP/USD is too active, with hundreds of billions of dollars or trillions of dollars in trading volume every day, and perhaps there are big institutions on Wall Street that have already been ambushed at a higher level.
Although we have a lot of positions, we still don't have enough to look at the entire market. ”
Hu Xu suddenly said at this time: "Both, you have all read the report of the Wall Street Journal on "the British economy may fall into a long recession", I don't know if you have found a problem. ”
Yuan Ze nodded: "Look, what's wrong, Mr. Hu, is there anything wrong?" ”
Hu Xu said in a deep voice: "I read that as British households cut back on spending in the face of soaring inflation, and the economic stimulus plan was gradually withdrawn in the face of mask disease, some economists pointed out that the British economy may be unsustainable in the third quarter."
Moreover, the UK is now about to change its leader, and the new leader will face once-in-a-decade high inflation, a tight job market, and an energy crisis......"
Kang Lei smiled: "What are you talking about, Lao Hu, we were originally shorting the pound, isn't this a good thing?" ”
Hu Xu said: "This report seems to be a good thing, but have you ever thought about what if the new leader succeeds him, he is dissatisfied with the status quo and directly uses foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the foreign exchange market? ”
Kang Lei was stunned and said, "Uh, won't it?" After the new leader of the United Kingdom comes to power, will he use foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the foreign exchange market? ”
Yuan Ze shook his head when he heard this: "Mr. Hu, you think too much, now is not the 90s of the last century, when Soros sniped the pound, Wall Street bears followed up, forcing the British government to use foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the market, and the result was a fiasco, resulting in the withdrawal of the pound from the European exchange rate system."
You know, at that time, it was the 90s of the last century, when the British government spent more than 20 billion US dollars and failed, and it was only for European currencies such as the Deutsche mark, and the liquidity was not too high.
Today, we are short GBP/USD, and the liquidity is more than 10 times that of GBP/DM, how much will it cost to use foreign exchange reserves to intervene? ”
Yuan Ze tapped the keyboard a few times, looked at the content searched on the screen, and continued:
"I checked the current foreign exchange reserves of the British side, which is only about 180 billion US dollars, which is pitiful.
And don't forget, the UK is a country with no foreign exchange controls, and if it really comes time to use its foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the GBP/USD exchange rate, it will mean that the UK is running out of money.
Hey, Mr. Hu, at that time, do you think those financial giants on Wall Street will open their mouths and take a bite into the carotid artery in the UK?
Once that situation is formed, there will be untold Wall Street capital to contain the pound, as it was thirty years ago, but it will not be possible for $180 billion to intervene. ”
Regarding Hu Xu's worries, Yuan Ze was not worried at all.
Neither logically, nor in the big events of the future, this kind of thing will not happen.
Well, at least at the end of September this year, before Yuan Ze and others close their positions, it is impossible to happen. He didn't know about it later.
After listening to Yuan Ze's analysis, Hu Xu stretched his brows and said with a smile: "What you said makes sense, Mr. Yuan, I think too much, but, listening to your analysis, I now feel a little less about the little bit we are taking now?" ”
Yuan Ze was stunned, he didn't expect him to say less, and immediately raised his eyebrows and encouraged: "Is it less?" If Mr. Hu feels that it is less, why don't you go where to get some money to invest in? ”
Hu Xu bowed slightly: "I do have this idea, but I don't have any money in my hand now." ”
Kang Lei was surprised on the side: "Lao Hu, you are really fake, when did you have such a big appetite?" ”
Hu Xu said seriously: "It's not that I have a big appetite, but that I have learned about it in the past two days, and now I have listened to Mr. Yuan's analysis, and I feel more and more that this time it is a big opportunity to short GBP/USD. ”
Kang Lei listened, and after pondering for a while, he was also a little moved, and proposed: "Then why don't we go find someone to borrow some money?" ”
Hu Xu thoughtfully: "Looking for someone to borrow money?" That's fine, but who should I borrow from? ”
……