Half past seven in the evening.

The sunset is shining.

Yuan Ze, who was accompanying Su Yinuo, Ou Lin and Tang Guo to dine, suddenly received a call from his secretary Qiao Shuang.

"Mr. Yuan, the GBP/USD exchange rate has plummeted!" As soon as the phone rang, Qiao Shuang's eager and excited voice came from the earpiece.

"Oh? Has it plummeted? Yuan Ze smiled: "Then it seems that the situation is the same as I expected before, is it the new British Prime Minister?" ”

"Uh-huh!" Qiao Shuang hurriedly responded, and then said with great admiration: "Yes, you said yes, just half an hour ago, the new British Prime Minister promulgated the latest reduction policy.

The GBP/USD exchange rate has plunged all the way from the 1.12 position and is now about to fall below the 1.10 mark......"

"Okay, I see."

"Then Mr. Yuan, what should we do now, should we take the opportunity to close the position, or?"

"Don't be in a hurry, the show has just begun, what position to close, since the policy on the British side has been introduced, you don't have to worry about it, go back and have a good rest, and wait until next Monday to talk about the liquidation."

……

Just as Yuan Ze and Qiao Shuang were on the phone.

On the other side, Ge Chengye, who is far away in Shenzhen, is still in his ant tour group, chatting with a few small tour capital.

But at this moment, the old pig suddenly posted a screenshot in the group and said: ", teachers, look, the British government is having a convulsion!! ”

Zhongyouzi took a look, and some people didn't understand.

"Well, isn't it the British government that has enacted a tax cut? Isn't that great? ”

"I took a look, the tax cut policy introduced by the Yingzheng government this time should be regarded as positive, which is conducive to reviving the economic vitality of households and enterprises, right?"

"So, old pig, you said that the British government has a convulsion, what do you mean?"

The old pig with ten thousand hands said: "Teachers, don't you look at the foreign exchange situation?" Go and see for yourself what kind of dog the pound's foreign exchange has fallen, as soon as this tax reduction policy is promulgated, it will immediately start diving, whether it is good or bad, look at the market vote. ”

A tour of people who understand this piece said:

"The old pig is right, this new British government does have a bit of a convulsion.

Although I have taken a look at this tax reduction policy, there is no major problem from the policy point of view.

However, in light of the actual situation, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet in order to curb inflation recently, but the British government wants to stimulate the economy......

It is inconceivable that monetary policy and fiscal policy should be completely opposite in the same country at the same time. ”

Youzi then analyzed:

"Yes, the tax cut means that the fiscal revenue is reduced, and there is already a shortage of money, and if you do it again, it is expected that the debt of the British government will definitely increase."

"I see, as soon as the debt increases, you have to start releasing water in order to pay off the debt, right?"

"That's right, as soon as the water is released, the national currency will start to depreciate, not to mention that the US is still raising interest rates."

"If you look at it this way, the new government in the UK does have a bit of a convulsion, what do you think? Is it simply a brain in the water, or is there some other conspiracy? ”

"Who knows what they think, anyway, at the moment, it seems that they can already open a short position on the GBP/USD currency, and if you are lucky, you should be able to take this opportunity to eat meat."

10,000 hands old pig: "I have already opened a rush, 10 million principal, 30 times leverage, 1.102 short position, the heart is not big, fall to 1.08 to close the position." If the teachers are interested, they can rush together, this is a good opportunity! ”

Lose a fine note: "Uh, old pig, your business is a bit wide, are you still doing foreign exchange?" ”

Wanshou Lao Pig: "The main position is still stock speculation, foreign exchange and futures are occasionally done, look at the market." ”

"Gan, I don't have a foreign exchange account, I can't rush it."

"Forget it, I don't understand the foreign exchange thing, so I still don't participate."

"There is no idle capital, and all the positions are in A-shares, so I can't keep up."

“……”

Ge Chengye, as the owner of the group, saw the discussion of the foreign exchange market among the group investors and did not participate.

But his whole body was excited.

"The GBP/USD exchange rate has plummeted! That's great! ”

Ge Chengye opened the foreign exchange software and looked at it, and immediately became overjoyed, and hurriedly dialed Hu Xu's phone.

"Hey, Mr. Hu, there's a big movement in the foreign exchange market, are you watching?" Ge Chengye said.

Before Hu Xu could speak, Kang Lei next to him said first: "Isn't that nonsense, I invested so much money in it, Lao Hu and I basically let people stare at the foreign exchange market 24 hours a day, what, the news from the UK, Mr. Ge, you also know?" ”

Ge Chengye said: "Yes, I just found out. Looking at the situation, it seems that the new government of the United Kingdom has introduced a package of new tax cuts, but the financial market is not buying it, and the foreign exchange data on my side shows that the exchange rate of GBP/USD has fallen below 1.1 at this time. ”

Kang Lei laughed: "Hahaha, the more it falls, the more we earn, cool!" ”

Hu Xu took over and said: "Tsk, this is almost exactly the same as what Mr. Yuan predicted before!" ”

Ge Chengye didn't know what several people had said before, so he was surprised: "What prediction is exactly the same?" ”

Hu Xu smiled: "Mr. Ge, you don't know, before we participated in shorting GBP/USD, Mr. Yuan found me and A Lei and personally analyzed it for us.

At that time, Mr. Yuan pointed out that because of the interest rate hike in the United States, Britain was the first to be drawn blood, and the British domestic economy was already very bad, so after the new government came to power, it would probably introduce a package of economic stimulus plans.

But the current UK is like a patient in the emergency room, at this time, no matter what kind of stimulus is given, whether good or bad, it will cause panic in the outside world, which will sell the pound and lead to the depreciation of the pound. ”

Ge Chengye was surprised: "Awesome, Mr. Yuan really has a vision, and he deserves to be a god!" ”

In fact, the tax cut policy promulgated by the British government this time, although it is a little too anxious, is indeed a good policy to stimulate economic growth in the long run.

This is because the new policy involves income tax, stamp duty, energy bills, alcohol tax, corporate tax and many other items, including duty-free shopping for overseas tourists.

Once fully implemented, it will undoubtedly bring a shot in the arm to the recovery of the British economy.

But now that inflation in the UK is so high and prices are skyrocketing, but it still needs to stimulate economic growth, isn't that looking for death?

In order to alleviate inflation and suppress prices, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet this year, trying to slow down economic growth.

However, the tax cut policy introduced by the British government is equivalent to sacrificing the government's fiscal revenue to stimulate the British economy, and then cause the deficit to increase and the debt to rise.

In the end, in order to repay the debt, the Bank of England could only print a large amount of money and release water, and the result would inevitably be the depreciation of the pound.

Perhaps before the introduction of this tax cut policy by the British government, the leaders were still full of confidence and felt that it could boost the confidence of the market.

But after the policy was promulgated, when they saw the situation in the foreign exchange market, they probably didn't think so.

Don't think that those leaders are so clever and wise, but in fact, because they are also human beings, they will also misjudge the situation, and even do some things that are relatively mentally retarded and ridiculous.

Therefore, affected by the tax cut policy of the British government, the pound began to fall all the way.

The GBP/USD exchange rate, after falling below the 1.10 mark, continued to decline and could not stop.

By the end of this Friday, the GBP/USD exchange rate fell below 1.09 and closed at 1.0847, a decline of 3.61% on the day!

……

On Saturday and Sunday, the global foreign exchange market is closed.

However, the treacherous game did not stop for a moment.

No, regarding the tax reduction policy introduced by the British government, the British media published an article on Saturday saying that this is not okay?

Anyway, there was a long list of problems with tax cuts.

The approximate meaning is: for the British economy, the Bank of England is reducing the fire, but the British government is arching the fire, which is like a patient with a fever who is almost gone, and the doctor is giving him a strong medicine to cool down, but the patient's father jumped out at this time to inject the patient with adrenaline, and then said: Baby, do you feel refreshed? Come on, let's make a set of papers, otherwise I won't be able to get into Tsinghua University in the future, so what can I do?

This set directly made everyone look stupid, and even the MIT (International Monetary Fund) couldn't stand it, and ran out to urge the UK to reassess the tax cuts.

MIT warned that an untargeted series of programs could trigger a spike in inflation, while also saying that fiscal policy cannot run counter to monetary policy.

Anyway, it roughly means that you are about to play yourself useless, so don't think about how to make money at this time, and think about how to survive first.

And after MIT's speech, just as Britain is now in the midst of a rumor, its closest ally, the United States, directly ignoring the three-seven-twenty-one, came to take advantage of your illness to kill you, like a bat, open its mouth and pounce on you to suck your blood.

Of course, as early as a few months ago, the capitalists of the United States and Wall Street had already begun to bite Britain with their mouths open.

Although the whole world has been affected, it is undoubtedly the worst in the United Kingdom, which has caused countless capital to flee from the United Kingdom and sail to the United States, causing the bubble economy in Britain to collapse.

This second mouth, which is what Wall Street is doing now, unites the world's major rating agencies to work together to reduce the British economy.

At present, the world's three top rating agencies, Poor's, Moody's and Fitch International, have given the British economy extremely low ratings on Saturday and Sunday.

This is equivalent to in the film and television industry, a movie has been scored extremely low on a certain petal, and the impact is self-evident.

As a result, on Sunday afternoon, the former central bank officials of the United Kingdom came out to criticize the tax cut policy of the new British government, scolded them for messing around, and openly told the public that if you want to take advantage of this stall to make money, then hurry up and short the pound.

……

Monday, September 26.

In the early hours of the morning, the Sydney foreign exchange market officially began trading.

As soon as the market opened, the exchange rate of the pound began to plummet, and the GBP/USD exchange rate fell all the way below the 1.06 mark to 1.0553.

Fenghuang Road, it was dark outside at the moment, but the lights in Yuan Ze's office were bright.

In the phone video, Kang Lei, Hu Xu, and Ge Chengye are all there.

Kang Lei said excitedly: "The exchange rate of GBP/USD has fallen to 1.055, and it has not been undertaken at all, it seems that it should continue to fall, and it is estimated that it is not impossible to fall below 1.05!" ”

Hu Xu said: "This is still the Australian market, and the Asian market and the European and American markets will start, which is the main event." ”

Ge Chengye touched his bald head, patted the table and said excitedly: "After dinner last night, I read the news that the British economy is about to collapse, and now the whole world is bearish on the pound. ”

Just when the three of them were so excited that they couldn't help themselves and their faces were full of glory, Yuan Ze took the coffee handed by Qiao Shuang and took a sip, and said lightly:

"Okay, Brother Kang, Mr. Hu, and Mr. Ge, all cheer up, it's almost over, and you can gradually start closing the position."

"Ah???h Kang Lei and the three of them were stunned.

Ge Chengye hurriedly said: "Uh, Mr. Yuan, now that the GBP/USD exchange rate continues to fall, is this about to slip away?" Do you want to wait a little longer? ”

Yuan Zedao: "The goal we set before was to start closing positions and leaving around 1.06, and now it is the target range." ”

Kang Lei nodded and said: "According to the original plan, it is indeed possible to start closing the position and leaving." ”

Hu Xu asked: "Mr. Yuan, do you think there are any risks next, or do you?" ”

Yuan Ze hesitated, and said slowly: "The three, happiness and sorrow, things must be reversed, although the battlefields of foreign exchange speculation and stock speculation are different, they are actually the same in essence, because they are both playing games with people." ”

"Mr. Yuan is right." Ge Chengye agreed.

Yuan Ze continued: "Don't look at the decline of the outside world now, but the pound exchange rate fell like this time, everything is based on the tax reduction policy introduced by the new British government."

We can think that the Yingzheng government was stupid and not thoughtful enough when it introduced this policy, but we must not think that they will continue to be stupid and let the situation deteriorate after seeing the situation deteriorate.

Although the whole world is now bearish on the pound and thinks that the GBP/USD exchange rate will fall below 1.0, the problem is that once the British government corrects its mistakes in time, the Bank of England will also speak out.

At that time, the GBP/USD exchange rate will stabilize, or even rebound, which is a matter of high probability. ”

When Kang Lei and the three of them heard this, they thought about it.

Yuan Ze smiled: "According to this logic, it can basically be concluded that once the British government intervenes in the foreign exchange market through policy means, then the phased downward trend of GBP/USD will also come to an end."

Here, I will also make two small predictions for the reference of the three of us, and see if this will happen in the future.

Next, in order to maintain financial stability and restore market conditions in an orderly manner, I predict that the Bank of England, also known as the Bank of England, will announce the repurchase of British bonds in the near future, and it is likely that there will be no upper limit.

Secondly, most of the tax cuts introduced by the new government of the United Kingdom will be canceled. ”

The two predictions that Yuan Ze said were all known through the future events on Kang Lei's head, and they were about to happen.

After Kang Lei and the three of them listened, they didn't say that it was impossible, but they had a wait-and-see attitude towards it.

However, after Yuan Ze's analysis, the three of them basically extinguished their thoughts of continuing to hold positions and selling at the price.

……

(End of chapter)