After handing over "No More Hesitation" to Wu Jiaju, Tan Guanzhong, Lin Shirong, and Chen Ziqiang, Liangkun called the financial company where Chen Ziqiang used to work, and said: "I heard that the exchange rate of the US dollar is about to be untenable!" ”

The boss said very cautiously: "The strength of the dollar over the years and the high interest rate policy of the US government have kept the dollar at a high level. The dollar's current strength is too frightening, too much. It would be too dangerous to continue this state of affairs. ”

Liang Kun said: "Nowadays, people call the dollar 'US dollar', in fact, I also think that this high operation of the US dollar should not last long. This state of the US dollar has seriously affected all kinds of unfavorable situations in the United States, and even the major countries in Japan and Europe have been greatly affected, and if the current situation is not changed, the whole world will face a catastrophe. Therefore, I think the depreciation of the dollar has reached the stage where it is inevitable. ”

"However, the risk of shorting the dollar and bullish on the yen is still too great," the boss said. As early as 1977, the United States proposed to devalue the dollar because of the large trade surplus between Ben and Germany with the United States. Although it was only a verbal statement by the US Treasury Secretary at the time, it also triggered a crisis of dollar depreciation, and from the beginning of 1977 to the fall of 1978, the dollar depreciated by more than 40% in just over 20 months! However, US President Jimmy Carter formulated a 'package to save the dollar', which caused the dollar to appreciate in turn and many people went bankrupt. Wait for those players who survive, and buy dollars to appreciate. Who knew that there would be a 'second oil crisis' and many people would jump off the rooftops. To be honest, the risks are really too great to do this business. ”

Liangkun smiled: "So you have changed from financial investment to financial fraud? ”

The boss said, "It's all mixed food, at least those sheep are easier to deal with than the bankers." ”

Liangkun smiled: "You usually cut leeks, and your bayonet fighting skills won't degenerate, right?" ”

The boss smiled: "How could I forget the ability to eat?" ”

Liang Kun said: "I think the dollar is powerless this time, are you interested in helping me make a vote?" Let me remind you that Chen Ziqiang's 300,000 yuan is a gift from me. The one you played on him, I don't want you to play on me. ”

The boss said: "Brother Kun, you also know that I am the partner of Big B, and I will not play this kind of trick with you." However, I said ugly in the front, the foreign exchange market is a super big gamble, there are losses and wins, in case there is any loss, you must not blame me! ”

Liangkun said: "As long as you don't play tricks and do things completely under the framework of my instructions, whether you win or lose, of course I will bear it myself." ”

The boss said, "That's good! ”

Liangkun has actually aimed at this wave of market for a long time.

During the Carter era, the U.S. dollar appreciated strongly, but the second oil crisis led to severe inflation in the United States.

Then-Fed Chairman Paul . At the beginning of his presidency, Volcker urgently raised official interest rates three times in a row and implemented a tight monetary policy to curb inflation. As a result, a large amount of foreign capital flowed into the United States, which directly caused the dollar to appreciate by 60% in just five years!

One of the direct results of the rapid appreciation of the US dollar is that the US government has incurred a large fiscal deficit and the trade deficit has further widened, creating a situation in which it is difficult to ride a tiger.

After Reagan's re-election, in order to fulfill his campaign promises, he implemented a comprehensive tax cut policy, coupled with the huge military spending brought about by the "Star Wars Project". Under the dual stimulus of tax cuts and national defense construction, the US economy, which was originally in a low-speed growth zone, soon entered a high-speed growth channel, forming a dangerous situation of "economic overheating."

The danger of "overheating" is that the US has excess domestic production capacity, and at the same time the trade deficit is growing, and an economic crisis could erupt at any time.

After World War II, the world's economy slowly moved towards integration, and the policy of closing the door could no longer adapt to the rapid economic development. The global economy has entered a situation where the whole body is affected.

As the most economically powerful country in the world, the United States has always been the vane of the world's economy, once the Reagan administration's tax cut policy + plan to increase US military spending is fully launched, then it can be expected that in New York, Tokyo and major European foreign exchange markets, the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies in the world will definitely continue to rise in an all-round way; On Wall Street, the U.S. stock market will also jump upwards like a bull holding its strength. The U.S. economy will immediately show a boom, and the outlook for the U.S. economy seems bright.

But while the U.S. economy is thriving, the rest of the world is doing badly. The Soviet Union and other socialist countries are basically in a state of self-circulation, the situation of developed countries such as Benjamin and Western Europe is average, and the developing countries in Latin America and East Asia have begun to grow at a high speed, but many domestic unstable factors still need to be improved, such as the war in Cambodia and the change of regime in South America, which have discouraged many foreign investors.

At a time when global investment opportunities are uncertain, the U.S. economy is suddenly bright, and many foreign investors are quickly mobilizing capital and flocking to the U.S. market.

In the words of Soros, a well-known financial speculator in later generations, if financial investment is too active, market speculation factors will increase, financial "bubbles" will gradually increase, and the vulnerability and danger of the market will naturally increase with the further activity of investment.

Soros was able to dominate the global financial speculation market in later generations, and his vision was naturally not ordinarily strong, and since he saw that the US economy was actually in a process of moving towards danger, he naturally would not give up such a good opportunity.

Liangkun has also seen a lot before the crossing, although it is not a professional economic data, but there is a very detailed explanation of the speculative process of the depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of the yen at that time.

At that time, Soros made a sharp evaluation of Reagan's economic policy from the perspective of financial investment. Soros clearly pointed out that this is a policy that is "worth considering", and it is undeniable that this policy has stimulated the US economy, but the degree of stimulus is too large, and the US economy may backfire and go too far. Soros has called the "Reagan Cycle" the economic development triggered by such well-intentioned economic policies that can do bad things.

The "Great Cycle" is due to stimulating economic growth, but the influx of foreign capital into the U.S. financial market will lead to a rapid increase in the U.S. economy's borrowing and liabilities to foreign countries as a whole. At this time, if the influx of foreign capital continues, the cost of foreign borrowing and debt in the United States as a whole will increase, and at the same time, the cost of new foreign capital entering the US financial market will be relatively reduced, and when the debt approaches the cost or even exceeds the cost of the source of foreign capital, some inconspicuous factors will burst the financial "bubble" that has already appeared at any time.

In the financial markets, the dollar will fall as quickly as it did at the beginning. Foreign funds that poured into the US market for the sake of huge speculative profits naturally fled in the hope of "falling" and quickly withdrew from the US financial market. The consequences of this are serious, and the drastic changes in the financial markets will cause the US economy to rapidly move into recession, and the overall economy will shrink sharply. The terrible thing about the "Great Cycle" is here, starting from revitalization, and returning to the state of non-revitalization or even decline due to excessive stimulation.

In Soros's words, that is, in the current market, investors are worried that the increase in money supply in the financial market will cause the economy to overheat, and they are afraid that interest rates will rise, leading to a rapid cooling of the economy. As a result, stocks affected by low interest rate policies were left out in the cold, and stocks stimulated by Reagan's economic policies were bullish. This is a very dangerous market move.

In fact, the economic outlook driven by Reagan's policy is not optimistic, the dollar will rise too much, it will inevitably fall, the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at any time, and the economic cooling is also expected.

In order to prevent the United States from falling into a terrible economic crisis because of the Reagan administration's economic stimulus plan, the Federal Reserve and the awakened US government will inevitably take action to cool down the US economy and the dollar.

Although Liangkun is not engaged in economic research, he has seen so much that he remembers very clearly the time of the US government's action: in September 1985, the famous "Plaza Accord" will be officially signed, and the yen will sit on an upward rocket.

In view of the high risk of the foreign exchange market, Liangkun is also ready to enter the Japanese stock market and directly arbitrage some relatively low-risk gains.

Is the yen's appreciation a loss-making deal for Japan? In the short term, it is absolutely not, because although the appreciation of the yen has pushed up the production costs of Japan's manufacturing industry, it has also helped Japanese financial institutions to invest overseas.

Despite Japan's economic status, the yen has the smallest market among the world's major currencies, and it is not even as important as the Italian lira in international settlements.

The appreciation of the yen will expand its application in the field of international settlement, which means that Japan, which lacks resources, can use the yen to buy more raw materials and resources in some parts of the world, thereby indirectly reducing the production cost of Japan's manufacturing industry.

If the Japanese economy is improving, the Japanese stock market will also improve, and of course, the housing prices in Japan, especially in Tokyo.