Chapter 74: Let History (Big Bull Stocks) Tell the Future
February 19, 2023 is a Sunday, and the two families of Yuansheng and Zhang Sheng went to Pengshi Music Park to play.
The music park has many musical elements, such as models of large pianos, cellos, guitars, and other musical instruments........... There are musical fountains, tent bases............ The 2 little guys, under the leadership of their mother, had a lot of fun. Yuansheng and Zhang Sheng started their time to discuss stocks again, after all, they are professional speculators, and they know that the competition in the stock market is very fierce, and they need to continue to learn, evolve and improve in order to continue to make money in the stock market.
Mr. Zhang: After the main board registration system, there are more opportunities for new shares? Or is it getting less?
Yuansheng: Of course, it's more.
Mr. Zhang: Why?
Yuansheng: In the past, the 44% system on the first day of new shares led to the fact that ordinary shareholders could not buy low-level chips at a low level. Such a high stock price has led to 95% of the new stocks opening the price limit, which is a bear stock that continues to fall..........
Zhang Sheng: After the registration system, can this situation be changed?
Yuansheng: Partial IPOs can change this situation.
Mr. Zhang: What kind of IPO can change this situation?
Yuansheng: Everything is traceable, but 95% of people don't understand it. For example, in the 44% new stock system, the main force also selects a very small number of new shares as a model and speculates on them. If you can decipher why these stocks are bull stocks? Then, when it comes to the main board registration system to be listed, you can also find the main direction of the main force in time and buy big bull stocks at a low level in time.
Now, let's review the history of new stocks and big bull stocks, and see why the main force chose it?
Let's take a look at the first big bull stock: Three Gorges Energy (600905) on the first day of listing was 6.949 billion yuan, the price of opening the price limit on the third day of listing was 4.62 yuan, the lowest was 4.23 yuan, and its turnover on this day was 16.41 billion yuan.
At this time, Zhang Sheng asked curiously: What is the significance of the transaction amount of 164.1 yuan?
Yuansheng: This is of great significance! This is the second largest trading volume on the first day of a new stock listing or the first day of opening the price limit after there were A-shares in 1990!
Mr. Zhang: Who had the largest trading volume on the first day of listing? Was it hyped up successfully?
Yuansheng, so far, the largest turnover on the first day of listing, or the first day of opening the price limit, is PetroChina (601857), which traded 69.99 billion yuan on the first day of listing. This is the most A-share! Although it is such a large volume, it is also a big yin stick! It opened at $48.60 on the day, with a high of $48.62, a maximum of $41.70, and a close of $43.96. Such a big yin bar K-line shows that the first day is more dominant, and many parties have invested 69.99 billion yuan to buy, but they are still in a weak position, so it is a big yin stick!
Zhang Sheng: Why did the bulls invest 69.99 billion yuan to buy, but the bulls are still in a weak position? Or a big stick?
Yuansheng: Looking at the three years of the Korean War, the Volunteer Army fired a total of 240,000 platoon * artillery shells, about 960,000 grenades, and 4,903 92 cannon shells, which were only a fraction of the opponent's.
In the Battle of Shangganling alone, the US military dropped 1.97 million rounds of various artillery shells of more than 81 mm caliber.
The U.S. military had so many artillery shells, but the U.S. military lost the Korean War: because the Chinese and American troops started at the beginning of the war near North Korea to China, but by the end of the war, the U.S. troops could only retreat to the south of the 38th parallel, and the volunteers regained the lost territory of North Korea, so the winner was the volunteers.
In the same way, on the first day, the parties invested 69.99 billion yuan to buy PetroChina, but its opening price was too high, and such an opening price has overdrawn the stock price for N years, so it can only be a continuous decline, a big bear stock!
I remember that on the day of the listing, Yuansheng wrote an article "15-minute battle" in Sina, and the conclusion was that the opening 15-minute contest had been lost. The article was recommended to the front page of Sina, and the hits were 290,000.
Why did the speculation on China's oil listing fail? First, when it was listed, the Shanghai Composite Index was 5,785 points, not far from the highest point of 6,124 points, so it opened extremely high. Second, it opened at a price that was too high, so it had no room to rise, and could only fall. Third, on the eve of listing, it is at the end of the largest bull market in China's A-shares, and public opinion believes that the market will rise to 10,000 points, so Chinese investors are talking about PetroChina. A friend from other provinces said that PetroChina was the most profitable enterprise in Asia at that time, and he planned to take PetroChina for a long time and leave it to future generations......... Yuansheng told him that large-cap stocks can't be long-term. Small-cap, high-growth stocks have long-term value..........
The fourth reason for the failure of China's oil listing speculation is that the heat will die! It can be said that since the A-shares, the popularity on the eve of PetroChina's listing is unprecedented in China, and there is no one to come! This hot spot is equivalent to 2017 in China, and even farmers in remote mountainous areas know that investing in real estate over the past few decades is the best investment, better than any business. It can be said that 2017 is the hottest year for real estate in China, and almost everyone believes that real estate is the best investment............
Now, the results have been seen: PetroChina is the hottest new stock on the eve of China's A-share listing, and it is also one of the worst new stocks in China's A-shares, slowly falling from 48.62 yuan to 4.04 yuan before it really bottomed out, and is currently 5.15 yuan. Stockholders who like to take the long term can really only be left to future generations, otherwise, it will be difficult to solve the problem in this life.
We can assume that PetroChina opened at 18-28 yuan on the first day of listing, then, according to the fact that the market was so hot and popular at that time, it could at least speculate for a wave and become a temporary bull stock......... It's a pity that there are no assumptions in the stock market! Therefore, the history of the stock market tells us that any new ticket is too high, only the share will fall!
Don't be afraid to compare goods, only by comparison, do you know whose stock price is high? Whose share price is low? Three Gorges Energy is the world's largest (scale) stock in this sub-sector, with a starting price of only 4.23 yuan, while PetroChina, as Asia's No. 1 (profitable) company, opened (started) at 48.60 yuan. Who is high and who is low? Primary 1 students know the answer!
Therefore, on the first day of the opening of the Three Gorges Energy, the main force of the long market used 16.41 billion yuan, which constituted a big long-term retreat. Big long retreat, everyone likes it! There is a big long retreat at a low level, and with other favorable conditions, it is most likely to appear large bull stocks.
On the second day after opening the price limit, Three Gorges Energy rose 7.14%, which is a big yang stick! Big stick, who doesn't like it?
On the third day, Three Gorges Energy rose 10%, and it was another big yang stick.
On the 4th day, Three Gorges Energy rose by 10%, and it is still a big yang stick!
Smart stockholders, all like the big yang stick, stay away from the big yin stick! Because the stock market has inertia!
The 5th to 7th is the opening of the up-limit board, and the up-limit board is not opened throughout the day, so you can't buy.
On the 8th day, the price limit opened, and the stock price had been speculated from 4.23 yuan to 8.79 yuan, and it had more than doubled rapidly in 8 days! It has doubled, has not been fully shuffled, and it is a new stock with 6.949 billion super circulation, and when the price limit is not sealed on the 8th day, even if it is a little stupid, it is time to clear and sell! Yuansheng's last bit of chip at that time was 8.79 yuan, and when he saw that it was not left, he sold it in a clearance. Of course, Yuansheng is not a god, and he does not dare to buy a full position when the 4.23 yuan hook is up.
Why did the main force choose Three Gorges Energy to fight? Yuansheng thought about it for 3 months before he found 2 reasons for the main force to hype it.
These 2 reasons are 2 pits (people who write novels like to dig pits. If there is a pit, it must be buried, and the first pit will be buried in about 6-12 months! .......... The more time passes, the more you can see who is the real fan! Such a useful answer, this gives real iron fans!
Tomorrow is Week 1, is the stock market up or down? Let's see the next breakdown.