April 5, 2023 is the 3rd of the week, and it is also Qingming, so there is a day off. The stock market is closed, because of the rain, Yuansheng and Zhang Sheng's family took their children to *Erbao Children's Center to play, the children were playing, Yuansheng and Zhang Sheng chatted about the stock market..............

Zhang Sheng: In the past three months, the stock market has risen sharply and fallen sharply, what is the reason?

Yuansheng: Let's take the most fierce rise in the current cold martial stock as an example, in the past three months, it started from 54.15 yuan to 226.53 yuan yesterday, an increase of 4.18 times. It is still a loss-making stock, maybe next year, or the day after tomorrow, because of the large number of AI chips, it may not lose money, maybe the profit is still very considerable....... In that way, its rise is reasonable, which is equivalent to the net profit of more than 100 million yuan in the early stage of the listing of *Ning Electric Appliances, and its net profit is more than 4 billion yuan after 3 years of listing, so its stock price has risen more than 30 times. Who could have known 3 years in advance that the net profit of *Ning Electric would rise dozens of times? No one knows in advance.

In the same way, after 2-3 years, the net profit of Leng Wu stock has skyrocketed? Or continue to lose money? It will take 2-3 years to see the answer. Logical reasoning: The net profit of Leng Wu stocks should rise sharply in 2-3 years, so it makes sense for big funds to choose it as one of the leading AI stocks. This is the reason why it has risen 4.18 times.

Yuansheng continued: Looking at Gu Neng stocks, its net profit in 2021 increased by 2923% over the previous year, and it is expected that the net profit in 2022 will increase by 137-169% compared with the previous year, with an opening price of 63.20 yuan on the first day of listing, and a price-earnings ratio of 15 times. Look at the numbers as typical low-price-to-earning, high-growth stocks. However, these figures represent the past, not the future.

Yuansheng continued: In January 2021, the domestic price of lithium carbonate was around 60,000 yuan (1,000 kilograms), and by the beginning of December 2022, it would rise to 600,000 yuan, so in the early 2-3 years, the stock of lithium in the product growth stage rose 5-15 times.

At present, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen to 195,000 yuan, so Gu Neng stock has also fallen from 63.20 yuan to 40.75 yuan.

Zhang Sheng: I understand, no wonder there is such a joke on the Internet: full position in new energy stocks in 2023 is one of life's major mistakes.

Yuansheng took over the topic, please look at this news:

*Sla may enter the "100,000-200,000 yuan" price range in which Yadi has pricing power.

On April 4, 36Kr reported that *Sla is planning an ambitious production footprint for its new low-cost model, which can be seen as a small Model Y, with an annual production capacity of 4 million units planned in the future. The Gigafactory in North America will have a production capacity of 2 million units, and the Berlin plant in Germany and the Lingang plant in Shanghai will each have a production capacity of 1 million units.

At the moment, *Sla China has not responded to this news. However, at the *Sla Investor Day held on March 1 (EST) this year, *Ske also said that *Sla's next-generation model will adopt a new production method, which will produce and paint parts simultaneously, and then assemble them in one go, reducing the assembly steps by 40% and the manufacturing cost by 50%.

Will the reduction in manufacturing costs lead to the creation of lower-priced models for *Sla? Why does *Sla need to break into a lower price range?

*Slav's "Great Law of Cost Reduction"

*Sla's outlook for lower-priced models dates back three years.

In September 2020, at the *Sla Battery Day, *Ske announced the new 4680 battery developed by *Sla. At the same time, *Ske said that the emergence of the battery will make it possible to sell a self-driving electric car priced at $25,000.

It is understood that the 4680 battery refers to the battery with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm. Tesla believes that the diameter of 46mm is the best solution to improve the range and reduce costs, and the 4680 battery adds silicon to the anode graphite, which also improves the energy density and charging speed of the battery, coupled with technologies such as "electrode lug", which makes the cost of the battery drop significantly. According to the data, *Sla's 4680 innovative technology can reduce the unit cost of batteries by 56%.

How is the production of the battery progressing today? As of August 2022, *The Slavato Road plant and the Austin Gigafactory have started small batch production of 4680 batteries. By the end of 2022, the weekly output of 4680 battery packs at the Kato Road plant has reached more than 1,000 units. In January this year, *Sla announced an investment of more than $3.6 billion to expand the Nevada factory, planning to expand the production of 100GWh of 4680 cells, with a long-term goal of 1000GWh.

Chairman of Yadea said in a recent survey: "In the product price of 100,000-200,000 yuan, Yadea has pricing power. ”

Once the *Sla launches a low-cost model, it will inevitably enter the current price range of 100,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan in which *Yadi has an advantage, and start more fierce competition with *Yadea.

Zhang Sheng: I understand, in order to compete, enterprises continue to reduce prices, net profits are getting smaller and smaller, and the stock price must be lower and lower. This is the law.

Zhang Sheng: "Once the quilt is covered, I don't know if the Year of the Monkey will be uncovered!" "Private equity bosses are bearish on AI! , this is the latest news, what do you think?

Yuansheng: In addition to attracting attention, this is not a bit of guidance for operation. After any stock reaches the top, it is a chicken feather, and it is difficult to untie it. Look at the stock king Moutai to 2627.88 yuan peak, more than 2 years later is 1814 yuan, and then 3 years? 5 years, 10 years to untie the set? Nobody knows.

After Oriental Communications rose 10 times rapidly, it has been more than 4 years since it peaked at 41.88 yuan, and it is currently 11.37 yuan. How many years does it take to untie it?

On February 5, 2018, ICBC, the most stable blue-chip stock, saw 10.15 yuan (compound price), and fell all the way, falling for more than 5 years, and is now 8.13 yuan (compound price).

After NSFOCUS was speculated by the main force by 4-5 times, on May 22, 2015, it reached 395.12 yuan (compound price), which has been almost 8 years, and is currently 133.32 yuan.

Yuansheng went on to say: Any industry, any stock, the more it rises, the more difficult it is to untie after peaking, and many stocks are not untied for 5-15 years is normalized. Only in the big bull market of 2007 (the index rose from 998 to 6124 points) did almost all stocks get out of the way. Or the big bull stocks dominated by technology stocks in 2015, and all the technology stocks have been unbundled.

Mr. Zhang: Has the AI hype peaked?

Yuansheng: From the perspective of the AI industry, it will take at least 3-10 years to mature when it is just starting out; From the perspective of capital games, many large institutions are selling new energy stocks and slowly buying AI stocks........... It can be said that at this stage, AI stocks will definitely differentiate, and in the coming days, AI stocks will rise and fall......... This process takes N years.

.................

After playing for a day, Yuansheng and Zhang Sheng took their families and drove home separately........

PS: The stock prototype in the article is: (Announced tomorrow.) ）