"I think so too." Guo Kang agreed: "He said that he was targeting the Ming Dynasty, but in fact it should be an attack on Eastern Chagatai." The goal is not to conquer, but to prevent people from attacking and destroying the core of his rule. ”

"Why is that?" Pedicas asked, "If that's all there is to it, there is no need to prepare so many people." ”

"East Chagatai is the homeland of the Western Regions, and the war in that place can't be used as our side." Li Xuanying reminded: "Do you know about the war between the Qarakhanid Dynasty and Khotan? ”

"When I was studying, I read it." Pedicas nodded.

"Uncle Timur's main achievements seem to be in the west, but when he was middle-aged, his biggest enemy was the Eastern Chagatai Khanate." Li Xuanying said: "And it's not the entire khanate, it's the tyrant of the khanate, Hamaruddin-that's what Guo Kang just said, the power is unstable, so he wants to take refuge in the Ming Dynasty." ”

"The territory of Hammaruddin is roughly the Western Regions of that year, that is, the area directly under the jurisdiction of the Anxi Protectorate of the Tang Dynasty. Moreover, his authority was questioned, and many nobles did not listen to him at all. Even so, Hammaruddin repeatedly took the initiative to attack Timur, fighting for the Seven Rivers Valley and Ferghana, and even directly threatening Samarkand. ”

"Timur and Hammaruddin fought for nearly 30 years, during which Timur invaded the Western Regions many times, but each time Hammaruddin was able to fight back. In the end, Timur finally invaded Kucha and Khotan, and Hammaruddin did not know what to do, and the threat in the east was finally temporarily resolved. ”

"That's why I think this war is very much like the war between Qarakhanid and Khotan." He concluded: "Although Uncle Timur is good at war, to be honest, his side behaves like a large Qarakhanid in war. After decades of fighting, even the eldest son was lost, and in the end, such a separatist force was eliminated. ”

"But what about the other side? He set out from the river, and in more than ten years, he circled most of Asia. From Delhi to Kazan, to Ankara and Damascus, all conquered by his army. ”

"Think about it, if it were you, which side would you choose to target for your main expansion?"

"Then why did he claim that he wanted to conquer the Ming Dynasty?" Pedicas continued to ask.

"Let's just look at the situation." Li Xuanying said: "The strategic situation plays a decisive role in specific military operations, and I have also studied this case. ”

"At that time, the situation in Higashi-Chagatai had changed. The story of the half-out 'orphan of the Jin family' was staged here. ”

"Hammaruddin's nephew, Khuda, was very loyal to the Khan's court, and when Hammaruddin slaughtered the members of the Khan's house, he hid the Great Khan's son, the Black Son. Later, Hammaruddin was defeated and disappeared, and Kumada supported the black child fire and called Khan. ”

"The Black Sons of Fire called Khan probably in 1390. In 1391, their envoys arrived in Nanjing, met with Zhu Hongwu and Hehan, and said that they would join the international order of the Ming Dynasty. ”

In 1399, after the death of the Black Son of Fire, Shami Chagan ascended the throne, and he even sent a public letter to the emperor, asking for permission to conquer Timur and regain Samarkand, the inherent territory of the Chagatai Khanate. The imperial court also sent a special envoy to persuade him, saying that young people should not be too impulsive and come steadily. ”

"At this time, after ten years of operation, the internal stability of Higashi Chagatai has been stabilized, and its strength has recovered. And the core territory of Emperor Timur's uncle is the hometown of Western Chagatai. In the place where the tyrant Hamaruddin had to fight desperately, the orthodox Great Khan would certainly not let go. ”

"Even if he doesn't go east, others will come over, in this case, it is better to take the initiative to attack while they are not ready, and destroy the enemy first." Li Xuanying concluded: "Dongchagatai has a close relationship with the Ming Dynasty, and if you fight him, the Ming Dynasty will definitely come out." In this case, it is better to directly say that he is going to the Ming Dynasty. ”

"You see, if you say it directly, everyone will think that 'this guy Timur is a jihadist sectarian again', 'the fake khan against the orthodox Khan of the Chagatai system', but if you put it another way, it becomes 'the warrior Timur challenges the general leader of the infidels', 'Timur, the god of war, swears to break the myth of the invincibility of the peach blossom stone', at least on the face, it looks much better. You can also trick a bunch of enthusiastic parishioners to help, so why not? ”

"I see. Taught. Pedicas suddenly realized.

"It's okay, it's okay." Li Xuanying waved his hand: "Propaganda is also an important part of the war. As generals, we also have to understand and learn. ”

Guo Kang also nodded.

At first, his father-in-law was not optimistic about Timur's actions, believing that he would not be able to conquer the Eastern Chagatai Khanate.

Even if Timur's Persian army succeeded in taking Beshbali, the effect would not be too good, because the nomadic nature of Eastern Chagatai was very strong, and the real strength of the Khan's court was the Mongol tribes on the steppe. The consequences of these people's guerrilla warfare with him will be worse than that of the expedition to Tokhtamysh.

Although a large amount of grain and grass has been prepared, no one can say whether they will be able to hold out until the other party gives up - what if they are like Hammaruddin, and spend another thirty years? And if the Ming Dynasty really intervened, the situation would be even less optimistic.

The Purple Horde thinks that you should not worry about the east. It is better for everyone to join forces again, defeat Egypt, and overthrow the Mamluk dynasty.

Egypt is also a very rich place if it can be used well, so the Purple Horde put forward a plan very early on, began to prepare the fleet, and invited the French, who had also coveted it for a long time, hoping that the three would go together.

But this kind of thing involves the core interests of the country, and Timur really can't compromise, so the plan can only be shelved. With the death of Emperor Timur's uncle, the country fell into division, and this plan ended in vain, which became a great regret for the Purple Horde.

"Now there is no help from Uncle Timur, and Beiyuan doesn't seem to be very good. Are we looking for something else? The Grand Treasurer Otelifos asked: "Is it possible for us to take the northern route—I only assume, can we start from Novgorod or Kazan, bypass these troubled areas, and go directly to the province of Liaoyang?" ”