"What do you mean? Why 98 silver Baspawen coins? ”

Zhu Di in the secret room, even if he didn't think deliberately, was a little stunned at this time.

It's some. Unconscionable.

"Master Dao Yan, have you figured it out?" Zhu Di asked.

Dao Yan turned the rosary and said: "I figured it out, but I can't say it for the time being, have the two Shangshu figured it out?" ”

"I'm ashamed, I haven't figured it out yet." Ru Yu replied honestly.

Jianyi, on the other hand, didn't speak for a long time, and only after a while did he say affirmatively.

"Chen figured it out! This Jiang Xinghuo, sure enough, has some sayings, but in this way, all the troubles before are suddenly opened! ”

"That's the truth." Jian Yi sighed, looking at the wall and feeling a little complicated in his heart, "No wonder, our understanding of taxation before was indeed a bit superficial. ”

Under the trees, autumn leaves drift away.

Jiang Xinghuo looked at the leaves that fell on the silver coin in his hand, blew it, and the leaves with raindrops fell to the ground in a trajectory, soaked into the sand.

Jiang Xinghuo slowly explained: "In fact, the example of 'the Japanese divide the silver' not only explains the study of the economy and the people, but also explains the 'game theory', which is a very classic example. ”

"Next, let me analyze for you why the Kou was able to take the unreasonable 98 silver coins of the Eight Si Pa Bun and still get out with the consent of the rest of the Woko."

Zhu Gaoxu listened very carefully.

"The first thing to explain is why the last widow with the number 'E', he was unlucky enough to be disarmed early."

"The reason is very simple, according to the rules, at present, we assume that A, B, and C have all been hacked to death after proposing, and it is the turn of the 'Ding' Wakou to propose. So, is it true that no matter how 'Ding' Wakou proposes distribution, as long as he shows his hand and votes to agree to his proposal, the final 'E's objection will be invalid? ”

Zhu Gaoxu thought about it and nodded.

"It's invalid, because the rules stipulate that half or more is fine, half of 2 people, and 1 person ('Ding' Wako himself) agrees."

Jiang Xinghuo bowed his head and said: "Therefore, the 'E' Japanese will be disarmed in advance. The reason is that there will be no mercy for the [absolutely rational] people, and if this really happens, then the 'Ding' Wakou will definitely take all the 100 silver coins of Paspa Wen, and not a single silver coin will be left for the 'E' Wako. ”

Zhu Gaoxu realized: "And when the five Japanese invaders were formulating the rules, because they didn't know who would draw 'E', and the five Japanese were [the same force], so in order to prevent the future 'E' Japanese from fighting with knives in a one-on-one situation, we had to discuss in advance and disarm the Japanese who drew 'E'!" ”

"Exactly."

"How did you get the 98 silver coins of Ba Si Pa Wen of A?" Zhu Gaoxu asked again.

"Reverse Extrapolation." Natsuhara replied.

Jiang Xinghuo motioned to this Mr. Qiu to come.

Xia Yuanji bowed slightly, then turned the direction of squatting, and said to Zhu Gaoxu.

"What Mr. Jiang assumed before was that A, B, and C were all rejected and died, leaving only Ding and E to die."

"Then since these five widows are all [absolutely rational] and extremely intelligent, then they must all be able to imagine this happening."

"Therefore, 'C' Wakou knew that 'Ding' Wakou wanted him to die very much, and then he would take these 100 silver coins of Pas-Pa for himself, and would not give him any silver coins of Ba-Pa Wen."

Zhu Gaoxu gestured on the ground and understood.

The distribution plan for the 'Ding' Wako is: 100 'Ding' Wakos and 0 'E' Wakos.

In other words, the 'C' and 'D' Wakos are naturally opposites, and because of their absolute rationality, they do not give up any interests.

Xia Yuanji continued to deduce: "Then for the 'C' Wako, since it is already known that it is impossible to give him 1 silver coin of the 'Ding' Wako, the only way for the 'C' Wakou is to win over the 'E' Wakou and give the 'E' Wakou 1 silver coin of the Ba Si Pa Wen and 0 silver coins of the 'Ding' Wakou. ”

"Why do you only give the 'E' Wako 1 silver coin of the Eight Sipa?"

Xia Yuanji explained: "Because they are all [absolutely rational] people, in the plan of the 'C' Wako, the 'E' Wakou can get 1 silver coin of Paspa alive and leave, and if the 'E' Wako does not agree, then the 'C' Wakou will die, and then the 'Ding' Wakou will swallow 100 silver coins alone, and the 'E' Wakou who has no weapons will also die, and even this 1 silver coin of Paspa will not be able to get it." ”

Zhu continued to record on the ground.

The distribution scheme of 'C' Wako is: 99 'C' Wakos, 0 'D' Wakos, and 1 'E' Wako.

"What's next?" Zhu Gaoxu felt as if he was about to understand.

"Next, it's time for the 'B' Wako."

Xia Yuanji pointed to the ground and continued.

"For 'B' Wako, since it is his turn to propose a distribution plan, it means that 'A' Wakou is dead, and under the condition of 4 people, 'B' Wakou only needs the consent of 2 people, including him, to pass the proposal, in other words, since 'C' Wakou and 'E' Wakou have stood together, then he only needs to win over 'Ding' Wakou."

"Therefore, the distribution plan for 'B' is as follows: 99 for 'B', 0 for 'C', 1 for 'D', and 0 for 'E'."

Zhu Gaoxu suddenly asked at this time: "At this time, how many knives are in the hands of the four widows?" ”

Jiang Xinghuo seemed to expect that he would definitely think in this direction, and laughed.

"Mr. Jiang, what are you laughing at?"

Jiang Xinghuo stopped laughing and said with a smile in his eyes: "These five [absolutely rational] and [same force] widows, when designing the rules, they have already taken into account the situation that someone will turn their faces and use force. ”

"The reason why the 'E' Japanese are disarmed is because under the rules, the last person has no right to resist the penultimate person, otherwise the rules will be broken."

"And when there are three people, that is, Bing Ding Wu, 'C' Wakou proposed after disarming the weapon, and although 'Ding' Wakou has a knife in his hand, 'E' Wakou does not have a knife, on the surface, one person has a knife and two people have no knife, and 'Ding' Wakou can turn his face."

"But in fact, because of the [same force], the 'Ding' Wako can only deal with one person at the same time, and the other person will get a knife not far away, and he can even choose to bring two knives back, if the person who is dealt with by the 'Ding' Wako is not dead."

"[Absolutely rational] them, because of the [same force], so one person has no knife and one person has a knife, or two people have a knife, all of which are impossible for the 'Ding' to deal with."

"In other words, in the scenario of three people, the 'Ding' Wakou is bound to die."

Zhu Gaoxu understood at this time and said: "That is, when it is the turn of the 'B' Japanese Kou, among the four people, it is formed that the 'B' Japanese Kou and the 'E' Japanese Kou have no swords, but the 'C' Japanese Kou and the 'Ding' Japanese Kou both have knives, and they are still balanced forces, so in this case, will they move towards a negotiated settlement?" ”

"This is to break the game, that is, to flip the chessboard and the table." Jiang Xinghuo replied: "Of course it is possible in the actual situation, but not in our example of 'the wolf divides the silver', this is an [absolutely rational] game model, and now it is only based on the rules to make assumptions, and try not to consider the use of force." ”

Speaking of this, Zhu Gaoxu finally completely understood the meaning of 'the Japanese divide the silver'.

Zhu Gaoxu took the initiative to say: "Then if we play the role of 'A' Wako, we can leave 98 silver coins of Ba Si Pa Wen for ourselves, and then give 1 silver coin of Ba Si Pa Wen to 'C' and 'E' Wa Kou who suffer the most in the proposal of 'B' Wakou." ”

The distribution scheme for 'A' Wako is: 98 for 'A', 0 for 'B', 1 for 'C', 0 for 'D', and 1 for 'E'.

"So."

"Do you understand?"

Jiang Xinghuo looked at the two people squatting on the ground and said.

"In the stock game, the winner must take it all and can only eat it all, otherwise, the other gamblers will let him lose until there are no bones left!"

"So, in the game of taxation, if the court, the locality, and the people are playing, what is the optimal solution for the game of the three?"

——————

In the secret room, it began to become audible for needle drops.

"Your Majesty! This is a heart-wrenching argument! ”

Jian Yi knelt down and said, "Does Your Majesty really want to release this person from prison?" ”

"Why not?"

Zhu Di said lightly: "I am a person who cannot be done, is there anyone in this world who I dare not use?" ”

Zhu Di stood up and paced slowly, his steps were extremely firm.

"Heroes of the world, shouldn't they be in my bag? "Historical Records" says that the place of the wise man is also in the world, such as the place where the cone is in the bag, and the end is immediately seen. Jiang Xinghuo, a genius like Jiang Xinghuo, is in the edict, and he should be noticed and valued by me. ”

"Does Jian Shangshu think that I didn't use Jiang Xinghuo's ability, or didn't use Jiang Xinghuo's belly?"

"If it's about wisdom, Master Daoyan uses it, why can't Jiang Xinghuo be used?"

"If you talk about military strategy, if you look at these famous generals in Kyushu, who is my opponent? Jiang Xinghuo is a scholar, can he threaten me? ”

"Jian Shangshu, you might as well tell me your answer."

"In the 'stock game' of taxation, the court, the locality, and the people play against each other, what is the optimal solution for the imperial court?"

Jian Yi was silent for a long time and spoke with difficulty.

"The imperial court takes all the taxes, and the local government must not withhold them, and the people must not refuse to pay them."

Zhu Di was aggressive: "Where is the place? ”

"If you don't pay it to the imperial court, the local government will take all the taxes, and the people will not refuse to pay them."

"What about the people?"

Jian Yi Khan rained down and did not dare to answer.

"Say!"

"The people. Refusal! ”

——————

"If you think you are smart, you have already understood that taxation is the most typical stock game."

Jiang Xinghuo continued: "It is precisely because of the 'winner-takes-all' characteristic of the stock game that irreconcilable contradictions have arisen between the court and the locality, the court and the people. ”

"Of course, the stock game model of 'dividing the silver into the Japanese' is based on [absolute rationality], and if we talk about things on this basis, then unless the people starve to death, they will continue to pay taxes in full, and the local government will definitely not intercept them, and will faithfully carry out the orders of the imperial court. This is obviously impossible. ”

"Not only do localities need to have their own money to do things, but the money allocated by the imperial court is neither timely nor realistic, if the people can't afford to pay the taxes, they will definitely not wait for themselves to starve to death, maybe the people will not rebel, but the people will choose to migrate to other places."

"And it is precisely because of the existence of this [non-absolute rationality] that the tax system of the imperial court will gradually collapse over time."

"We talked about the issue of land annexation before, and the biggest impact of land annexation on the dynasty is the reduction of the dynasty's tax base, and once the tax base is reduced and the tax cannot be collected, then the dynasty's various executive capabilities will be seriously affected, such as repairing water conservancy facilities, maintaining post stations, paying salaries to the army, paying salaries to officials, and so on."

"To put it bluntly, there may be many reasons for the fall of the empire, but the most direct one is the lack of money."

Jiang Xinghuo said with a smile: "There are indeed things in this world that money can't solve, but this kind of thing is generally very rare, only accounting for one percent; Thirty percent of the things need money to solve. ”

"What about the remaining sixty percent?" Zhu Gaoxu asked.

"The remaining sixty percent, you have to add money!"

A few people couldn't help but laugh.

After laughing, Jiang Xinghuo continued.

"I think that the problem of Daming's tax system has buried hidden dangers, which may explode violently in hundreds of years, so that Daming will die without money."

In fact, this is already Jiang Xinghuo's euphemism.

Why did the Ming Dynasty perish?

There are many, many sayings, what the Xiaoice period, earthquakes, emperors do not work. But Jiang Xinghuo believes that the most intuitive point is that there is still no money.

If there is money, Li Zicheng can get a salary, won't he still happily deliver the courier? As for the rebellion?

If you have money, you don't have to scrape the people's land, you don't need to levy salaries, how can you make a lot of trouble?

If you have money, can you train in the army in the back, and you can't kill Houjin directly with the money? If you can't kill it, it can only mean that you haven't spent enough money.

However, the truth is a pity, Da Ming just has no money.

Why is there no money?

The most fundamental reason is, of course, that the Ming Dynasty, as a traditional feudal agricultural empire, had the main tax base of agricultural tax, which was different from modern industrialized countries, which accounted for only a small part of the agricultural tax.

Therefore, the only source of wealth for the Ming Dynasty is to scrape the ground, which is to suffer the people.

Bitter gentry?

Don't make a fuss, the gentry don't pay for food.

This is a question of fairness and efficiency in taxation.

If you take into account efficiency, you can't be fair; If you take into account fairness, you can't be efficient.

Well, Da Ming didn't do either.

"What does Mr. Jiang mean?" Xia Yuanji asked with a slight frown.

"Since the tax system is a game, then in fact, one thing to point out is that taxation is not a direct game between the court and the people, and the people do not have this ability, and the real tripartite game object of the Ming tax is: the court, the locality, and the gentry."

Jiang Xinghuo said: "Even if the 'three distributions' cannot be realized, the tax system of the Ming Dynasty is still not good enough. ”

"This kind of inadequacy is reflected in the game model, which is reflected in the fact that the Ming court, which should be highly centralized, did not achieve winner-take-all, but allowed the local government and gentry to encroach on the interests of taxation."

"The court, the locality, and the gentry, these three are not concrete individuals in the first place, but abstract concepts."

"It's never three chess players who are playing, it's three interest groups that are playing."

"Based on the tax benefits of agricultural taxes, at this point, the Ming court was soft-hearted and felt that it could gain support by making concessions to the local government and the gentry."

"Actually, after reading the conclusion of 'Dividing the Silver of the Widows' just now, you should know."

"—Any mercy for other gamblers is cruelty to oneself!"

"Because the other party will not hesitate to expand their demands until they become the winner of the ultimatum and kill the original winner!"

"Mr. Jiang, what should I do then?" Natsuhara asked.

——————

In the secret room, Jian Yi and Ru Yu saw the shock in each other's eyes.

What a ruthless man!

If the tax system is reformed according to Jiang Xinghuo's intentions, I am afraid that this big knife will fall on the heads of the thirteen political envoys of the Ming Dynasty and thousands of gentry families!

But the benefits of this are also very clear.

Check in the bud!

Moreover, Jian Yi and Ru Yu also thought of a very terrible point.

That's their emperor, but he famously "either don't do it or never do it!" ”。

Thinking of this, Jian Yi and Ru Yu couldn't help but look at Zhu Di.

Sure enough, a sneer appeared on Zhu Di's face.

"Interesting, very interesting."

"It turns out that the taxes of the Ming Dynasty are to be eaten by the winners, otherwise, the gentry will kick their noses in the face, and the local area will also have a tendency to split. Didn't all those military leaders of the late Tang Dynasty do this? ”

"However, I am very curious, how will Jiang Xinghuo solve the tax contradictions between the imperial court and the locality, and between the imperial court and the gentry?"

"You know, this is where their fundamental interests lie."

"I'm afraid it's impossible to solve it properly, right?"

"Two Shangshu, what do you think?"

Jian Yi and Ru Yu were silent, what could they think? What do they dare to think?

Any reform that touches the interests of the gentry class, as long as there is a little rumor, they will be sprayed with blood, okay?

At this point, the two really regretted not making an excuse not to come.

Even if you are hated by the emperor, it is better than listening to the words of these tigers and wolves!

At this time, the two of them bowed nervously as if there were really fierce tigers and hungry wolves chasing them.

Nervous and curious, they looked at the wall.

Waiting for Jiang Xinghuo's answer.

yes, what to do?

Under the tree next door.

Jiang Xinghuo said slowly.

"In fact, it is not impossible to solve the tax contradictions between the imperial court and the locality, between the imperial court and the gentry, and to achieve the optimal solution of the imperial court under the stock game."

"I want to hear about it." Xia Yuanji squatted on the ground and arched his hand awkwardly.

"The solution to the tax game between the imperial court and the local government is to establish a secondary tax system of national tax and local tax."

"And to solve the tax game between the court and the gentry, the way is simpler."

"The gentry receive food in one body."

I went out for my birthday today, and that's all for these two chapters, huh...... It's also Xiao Jiang's birthday, and you can click on the homepage of this book for free. Finally ask for a monthly pass!

(End of chapter)