Zhu Di bowed his head slightly when he heard this, and praised: "Xia Qing's heart is as careful as hair. ”

Xia Yuanji hurriedly got up and saluted.

"Your Majesty's praise."

Zhu Di's smile made the nasolabial folds on his face come out.

"Then let's explain the prisoner game of this widow, Li Qing."

"Ahh

Li Zhigang was turned around by the emperor's words, and he almost doubted his ears.

However, seeing that the emperor was watching him, Li Zhigang could only bite the bullet and figure out his thoughts, although he had never heard of the last 'wolf dividing the silver game', but the rough background story was also listened to.

I don't know if Li Zhigang has been a prisoner too much, or if he really has a bit of keen thinking, Li Zhigang really began to deduce in an orderly manner.

"Your Majesty, we might as well think about the problem from the perspective of Bing Wakou first."

Li Zhigang's speech was quite slow, obviously buying time for his derivation.

"Because of the isolated interrogation, Bing Wakou definitely doesn't know whether Wu Wakou refuses to open his mouth or confesses."

Listening to your words is like listening to your words.

Everyone was quite speechless in their hearts, obviously this was Li Zhigang's nonsense, and he was afraid that he hadn't fully figured it out.

"So there is only one thing that can be sure of Bing Wakou."

Li Zhigang snapped his fingers: "Wu Wakou has only two choices, refuse to speak, or confess." ”

Zhu Di soon realized that this sentence was really not nonsense.

"If Wu Wakou remains silent and refuses to speak, then I am Bing Wakou, I only need to refuse to speak the same, I only need to be imprisoned in prison for 1 year, and I can be released This kind of not too long time is certainly acceptable."

There is nothing wrong with this logic, and everyone is looking at Li Zhigang's next inference.

"And for this situation, I actually have a better choice, that is, confess and betray Wu Wakou!"

A flash of realization flashed in Li Zhigang's eyes, and he continued.

"If I choose to betray Wu Wakou and confess to the generals of the Ming Dynasty, then in this case, I don't even have to be imprisoned for 1 year, and I can be released on the spot."

Zhu Di didn't hold back at this time and interrupted.

"I actually have a question."

"Your Majesty, please speak."

Zhu Di thought for a moment, and after making sure that he would not show cowardice in front of his subordinates, he asked in a condensed voice.

"If he looked at this question from the perspective of the Monkey, how could he be sure that the Widow would remain silent and refuse to speak? You must know that the last time in Tsushima Island, when the five Japanese invaders divided 100 silver coins, they betrayed each other and killed three people, leaving only them alive. ”

"And the two of them divided the spoils unevenly, Bing Wakou took 99 silver coins, and Wu Wakou only took 1 silver coin, which is equivalent to barely saving his life, at this time, I'm afraid it is difficult to expect Wu Wakou not to betray Bing Wakou, right?"

"Your Majesty's candle is thousands of miles, and his eyes are like torches!" Li Zhigang is like a fart.

Immediately afterwards, Li Zhigang continued to deduce: "As Your Majesty said, it is difficult for Bing Wakou to believe that Wu Wakou does not betray him, so there are other ways to say this. ”

"If Wu Wakou confesses, and Bing Wakou remains silent and refuses to speak, then the general of the Ming Dynasty will lock him up in prison for 20 years, which is already the worst result of all the options."

Everyone agreed.

Of all the possibilities, a 20-year sentence is indeed the worst outcome.

Therefore, it is difficult for Bing Wakou to accept this result, which means that if Wu Wakou confesses, Bing Wakou himself should also confess, otherwise he will suffer the biggest loss. And if he confesses, he will be locked up in prison for 18 years. ”

Li Zhigang became more and more smooth.

"But even if he is imprisoned for 18 years, in fact, it is much better for Bing Wakou than being detained for 20 years as a fool, and he has been imprisoned for 730 days."

Zhu Gaochi also made it clear at this time, and added: "That means that since Bing Wakou and Wu Wakou have the same idea, then Wu Wakou will also make the same deduction in another cell, which means that Wu Wakou will also draw conclusions." ”

"-Betraying your companion is the best option!"

Hearing this result, Zhu Di couldn't help but be a little in a trance.

Dao Yan, on the other hand, completely stopped the rotation of the rosary at this time.

——————

Under the tree next door.

After another long time, Zhu Gaoxu actually came to the same conclusion.

"The two widows should have betrayed each other."

After that, Zhu Gaoxu looked at Zheng He and wanted to answer Zheng He.

Zheng He also agreed with Zhu Gaoxu's statement.

"What did Mr. Jiang say?"

Jiang Xinghuo didn't say anything, but also drew something on the ground.

It's just that this time Jiang Xinghuo learned to be obedient, picked up a thick branch, and didn't use his fingers anymore, the last time he used his fingers to write and grind his nails into marble-like patterns.

Silent betrayal

Silence (1, 1) (20, 0)

Betrayal (0, 20) (18, 18)

"This is called the game matrix, which is all the possible solutions to the game of the prisoners."

Jiang Xinghuo pointed and said, "The silence/betrayal on the left is the one of the Wai Kou, and the silence/betrayal on the top is the one of the Wai Kou." ”

"This means that both the Bing and Wu Wakou chose to betray each other, in fact, from a personal point of view, neither is wrong, after all, everyone will prioritize their own interests, and in the Bing Wakou and the Wu Wakou are no longer [absolute rationality], that is, it is almost impossible to choose to remain silent and refuse to speak at the same time, towards the end of (1, 1)."

"So, both the Waiko and the Waiko know that betraying each other is a better option, and this is true no matter what the other Waiko does."

"But the problem is that betraying each other, not from a personal point of view, but from the result point of view, neither of them benefited from it, but they did not lose to the other party."

Jiang Xinghuo pointed to (18,18) and explained: "This is the standard ending of the game of prisoners, and the participants in the game of Japanese invaders follow the strategy of betraying each other and pay the price at the same time, which is the so-called Nash equilibrium. ”

"Is that equilibrium?"

Zheng He muttered the strange name.

"Meaning, that's the balance." Zhu Gaoxu explained.

"Oh, I see." Zheng He stroked his hair slightly.

Jiang Xinghuo didn't bother to explain and couldn't explain, in fact, he should change his name, but for a while, he really couldn't think of any particularly suitable name.

"Neither the Waiko nor the Wooko will regret this balance, because if either of them does not confess and changes his mind to remain silent and refuses to speak, then he will be sentenced to 20 years in prison, and he will lose the game and regret it for life, that is, he will end up in (20,0) or (0,20)."

"The meaning of this balance is that the problem is not the outcome of the game between the two sides, but the fact that the gambler will not regret it even if he knows the other party's choice."

"In fact, we all know from the perspective of the bystanders that this equilibrium is unwise, because if both people could [trust each other], they could have been imprisoned for only 1 year, but they both ended up being imprisoned for 18 years."

"In other words, each of them made the best choice, but it turned out to be a lose-lose situation."

"Therefore, the 'game of prisoners of the Japanese invaders' can draw an obvious conclusion."

Jiang Xinghuo said slowly: "When people are faced with competing interests, it is extremely difficult to [trust each other], but it is very easy to betray each other. ”

"When we talked about state power before, you should have found that the behavior between states is actually no different from the behavior between people, right?"

Zhu Gaoxu and Zheng He nodded.

"Then we can draw a conclusion that there is also a 'prisoner's game' between countries, especially competing countries, which I call the 'great power security dilemma'."

Jiang Xinghuo said slowly.

"Given that it is difficult for a state to determine how much power is sufficient for this year and next year, the year after that, and even the year after, the great powers recognize that the best way to ensure their security is to strive for hegemony now, thus eliminating the possibility of any other great power challenge. Only a confused state will feel that it has gained enough power to survive and will not want to seize the opportunity to fight for hegemony. ”

"This embodies the basic logic of the first part of "Great Power Game Studies", 'Offensive Realism', the essence of the dilemma is that the measure that one country uses to increase its own security often reduces the security of others."

Zhu Gaoxu said with some soberness: "This is the same as the game between the Bing and Wu Wakou. ”

Jiang Xinghuo smiled approvingly at him.

"In order to be secure from the basic logic of 'offensive realism,' the state will be forced to seize more and more power in order to avoid the power of others, but there will be a consequence."

This time it was Zheng He who spoke: "It is still similar to the game between the two Japanese gangsters just now, one country's attempt to seize power means that it will in turn make other countries feel more insecure and force other countries to prepare for the worst, so no country can feel completely safe, and the vicious circle of pursuing security has begun." ”

Well, in modern times this vicious circle is often referred to as an arms race.

——————

"Sounds like it's similar to the Spring and Autumn Battle?" Zhu Di was thoughtful.

For "Great Power Game Studies", in fact, Zhu Di's most concerned question is how to learn some knowledge from it to contain the Timurid Khanate, which is becoming more and more threatening to the Ming Dynasty and is undisguised hostile.

Timur is eight years younger than Zhu Yuanzhang, they are the same generation, and they are also the two great heroes of the world who divide the east and the west.

The Timurid Khanate, as early as the founding of the Ming Dynasty Hongwu Emperor, had occupied the hometown of Xiliao in Hezhong Prefecture, and Zhu Yuanzhang asked the Timurid Khanate to pay tribute according to the old practice of the Yuan Dynasty.

At first, Timur ignored it, and it was not until twenty years later, when Timur conquered Khorezm, that is, when Zhu Di was leading his army to the north for the first time, that Timur began to send envoys to pay tribute.

Although in the official letters, Timur claimed to be a minister, but Timur definitely did not want to serve the Ming as the suzerain like the Li dynasty, on the contrary, Timur was constantly learning about the situation and national strength of the Ming Dynasty through the exchange of envoys.

In the twenty-ninth year of Hongwu, when Zhu Yuanzhang was already seriously ill, Timur, who had just defeated the Golden Horde, tore off his face and detained the envoys, including both the Ming Dynasty and the Ottoman Empire.

A few years passed, when Zhu Di learned from intelligence that while the civil war between the north and the south was staged in the Ming Dynasty and fought for four years, the Timurid Khanate had already defeated the Mamluk dynasty and the Ottoman sultan.

Zhu Di quickly became vigilant.

After all, the speed of expansion of the Timurid Khanate was simply too astonishing.

Now looking at the territory and population, soldiers, economy, etc., the Timurid Khanate can not only compete with the Ming Dynasty, but also win a small victory in some aspects.

And Zhu Di had just finished the Battle of Jingjing at this time, and various domestic things made him anxious.

In fact, it was precisely because Jiang Xinghuo's performance in cutting the feudal domain helped him get the vassal king, the gentry in the apportionment, and put forward various other policies that were conducive to quickly pacifying the domestic chaos and stabilizing his rule, that Zhu Di respected and valued Jiang Xinghuo so much.

If Jiang Xinghuo did not bring tangible benefits to Zhu Di's imperial power, even if he was really an immortal, Zhu Di would not respect and attach importance to it so much.

"Returning to my father's emperor, it does mean the same as fighting for hegemony in the Spring and Autumn Period."

Since Dao Yan didn't speak, in terms of status, it was naturally Zhu Gaochi's succession.

Otherwise, it would be embarrassing to let Zhu Di speak alone and no one would care.

"For example, the battle of Hongshui between the Song State and the Chu State in order to compete for hegemony is a typical example of a great power game, right?"

Zhu Gaochi said slowly: "It is precisely because Song Xianggong did not choose to attack halfway in the game, so he was defeated and seriously injured, and the country was in decline. ”

"That is to say, in the game between countries, you must not [trust each other], even if you know that beware of each other will lead to mutual distrust and incur more serious consequences, but no matter how you choose, it is much stronger than your own country suffering serious losses."

Natsuhara Yoshiya also bowed slightly.

"Therefore, from the Spring and Autumn Period to the Warring States Period, wars between countries became more and more frequent, which is what Jiang Shi said, this so-called vicious circle formed because of 'offensive realism'."

"So apart from this vicious circle, there is no other way to restrain each other between countries? I'm talking about the kind of way you can restrain the other person without having to fall into this vicious circle. Zhu Gaochi asked thoughtfully.

Xia Yuanji pondered for a moment, slowly shook his head and said, "I didn't think of it for the time being." ”

"What does Li Shangshu think?" Zhu Gaochi turned to Li Zhigang.

Li Zhigang said hesitantly: "Returning to His Royal Highness the Great Prince, the minister didn't expect it. ”

Zhu Gaochi didn't delve into it anymore, and fell into a short period of thought again.

On the contrary, it was Dao Yan, who broke away from the state of sleep, opened his iconic triangular eyes, and stared at Li Zhigang a few times.

Li Zhigang's heart beat faster when he saw it, and he was extremely afraid of the old monk's cruelty and viciousness.

Li Zhigang also knew that he was afraid that his mind would be seen by Dao Yan.

Just as people can get along with each other by tricks and tricks, of course, they can also be used between countries.

And Li Zhigang is a master of this, so unlike Xia Yuanji, who can be deceived by a gentleman, Li Zhigang came up with a lot of tricks almost instantly.

Unfortunately, this does not fit his position.

The Ming Dynasty's Ministry of Rites should bathe the glory of the Ming Dynasty in every vassal country, how can there be such a dirty mind?

Something is wrong with you!

Therefore, in order not to make his image too ugly in front of the emperor and the eldest prince, Li Zhigang had to hide these things in his heart.

Just when a few people were intriguing, the voice next door also came.

"Mr. Jiang, is there no way to break this vicious circle?"

"Of course there are, and there are more than one."

Jiang Xinghuo's mellow voice floated in.

(End of chapter)