Masao Ishihara waved to Park Yilin to come and sit down beside him, and said casually, "Go on." ”

Park Jun-ryong said eloquently: "South Korea is a country dominated by an export-oriented economy. Although foreign trade is fundamental, the large number of foreign investment remaining in Korea is a variable.

The Fed's continuous interest rate hikes have also led to the return of dollars to the United States, which has triggered a new round of tidal laws in the dollar cycle.

If the Bank of Korea does not keep up with the Fed's interest rate hikes, a considerable part of South Korea's domestic foreign capital will flow directly to the United States. Capital has a profit-seeking nature, and whoever gives a high interest rate will go to whomever side.

The exodus of a large amount of foreign capital will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in the South Korean economy, a decrease in foreign exchange reserves, an increase in financing costs, and a negative impact on the real economy...... This has led to severe unemployment.

Even if South Korea is not a country that relies heavily on foreign investment, it still cannot withstand the large number of foreign capital leaving. The cruel truth of the Bank of Korea is that it has no choice but to raise interest rates continuously.

There is some truth in the sharp drop in South Korea's real estate this time, which is regarded as South Korea's version of the subprime mortgage crisis. First of all, the deposits paid by tenants who rent fully are not all their own money.

More than 90% of them are obtained through relevant bank loans. The landlord put the deposit of the full rental house into real estate or virtual currency.

Otherwise, it is invested in financial markets such as stocks. There is almost no chance that a landlord will deposit a deposit in the bank for interest. Both landlords and tenants who rent fully are burdened with a lot of debt.

In addition, there is another large number of people who have just bought a house with a mortgage, and credit card debtors and so on are burdened with more or less loans. In South Korea, the interest rate on loans is variable.

Once the Bank of Korea raises interest rates, commercial banks will also adjust interest rates. This is not only the increase in deposit rates, but also in lending rates.

For this reason, people who are burdened with loans, in the continuous interest rate hikes one round after another, round after round, and round after round, will inevitably have more loan interest than in the past, thus directly pushing up their original debt pressure.

Once it can't be repaid, it means that the capital chain has been broken. This time, the most direct impact is reflected in the Korean real estate market. ”

Ishihara Masao saw that his son's analysis was the first to do, and he understood that he had done his homework beforehand: "In your opinion, will the Bank of Korea raise interest rates in the future?" ”

Park Junlong replied categorically: "Absolutely." Inflation in the United States, although somewhat contained, remains high.

In this regard, the Fed will also suppress inflation in its country with a new round of interest rate hikes, so as to return it to the ideal range.

This will inevitably cause the Bank of Korea to follow the Fed's pace of interest rate hikes. The recent great easing of relations between South Korea and Japan is also based on the helplessness of the harsh reality of South Korea's domestic economy.

It was a difficult decision for the South Korean government to have a backbone or a bone. If the former is chosen, then the bones will be broken.

The consequences are probably as serious as the 1997 Asian financial turmoil that had a huge impact on South Korea. Once you choose the latter, you want bones, then you will naturally lose your backbone.

Although the face is lost and lost, the bones can be saved. If South Korea does not take the initiative to bow its head this time, it will also cause more serious economic problems at home.

South Korea's foreign trade exports to China have also begun to turn into a trade deficit from a long-term trade surplus in the past. China is South Korea's largest trading partner.

Japan is South Korea's third-largest trading partner. In particular, South Korea still relies on imports from Japan for some key high-precision materials.

Without those things, many of South Korea's goods would not be produced at all, and they would not be able to export or earn foreign exchange. If the factory is not able to operate or operate at full capacity, it will cause the company to lay off employees.

Unemployment is an extremely terrible thing for ordinary people. Especially for people who have mortgages, card debts, etc., it is even more devastating. ”

Park Yilin suddenly smiled and said, "Junlong, that's a good point." You see, our Son's is indeed a manufacturable material. ”

Ishihara Masao didn't smile, he didn't laugh or say, "Otherwise, you will make up for Junlong's loss?" You must know that the credibility of the financial industry is a very important foundation, and personal performance is the most favorable support.

If Junlong's failure cannot be made up in time, it will greatly affect his future personal career and development in the financial industry. ”

Without a moment's hesitation, Park Yilin kicked the ball he gave himself and kicked it back for him and said, "You are Junlong's biological father, so naturally you have to think of a way." ”

Masao Ishihara had already made an arrangement: "It is not a very wise strategy to directly re-inject funds into Junlong's fund.

Junlong, you will package and sell some of the investments that caused the loss to Karuizawa Commercial Bank. After the packaging of various financial derivatives is carried out by Karuizawa Commercial Bank, it is then sold.

To put it bluntly, this is one of the main causes of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, CDO structured derivatives. Of course, you can't just call it by that name.

Otherwise, no one will come and buy it. As for the specific name, it doesn't matter. It's just a makeover. ”

Park Yilin laughed out loud and said: "What you mean is that Junlong caused the loss of 200 billion won, and in the end it was up to the leeks to pay." ”

Ishihara Masao said lightly: "If you want to understand it like this, it's not impossible." Even if you buy these financial products, it does not mean that you will definitely lose money.

If the Fed does not raise interest rates, but instead cuts them, it will inevitably lead to a situation where the price of asset classes will rise. Doesn't this make people who buy relevant wealth management products make money. The more you buy, the more you earn.

Besides, it is normal to make profits and losses when making investments. What's more, Koreans are also very gambling. Even in the face of high-risk investments, in order to pursue high profits, they do not hesitate. ”

Park Yilin's smile remained unchanged and said, "Even you said it yourself, just in case." There is a high probability that people who buy these financial products will lose money. ”

Masao Ishihara was half serious, half said and said: "Since you have a good heart, then when the time comes, you can take the initiative to buy more!" If you buy more, others will buy less. ”

Park Yilin said bluntly: "I know the inside story, and if I want to enter the game, I will be stupid." I'm not stupid, I would never buy it. ”

(End of chapter)