611 The Future of Retail
"Retail?" Director Lin's face changed, and he shook his head and said, "Chen Sheng, this is not good, the retail industry is not open to foreign investment at present. ”
The basic policy of domestic reform is to open up to the outside world, but this premise is only for industries such as factories, foreign-funded enterprises to invest in China, use China's cheap labor to reduce costs, and at the same time appropriately use local material resources, etc., so that the cost of foreign-funded factories will fall, and the domestic side can get a large number of jobs, free training of skilled workers, related industrial chains, taxes, etc., which can be said to be more than one stone.
At least, that's what I thought when I first started to change it.
It's just that the reality is far less than the ideal plump, although the domestic labor is very cheap, but there are more places cheaper than artificial in the world, and there are no unique advantages, plus there are still a lot of concerns at some levels, the foreign capital that can really be attracted is not much in the first five years after the reform, and then it is found that most of the capitalists just want to use the mainland as a market, they just want to let their products enter the mainland to make money, rather than thinking about investing in factories here.
And such an idea, not to mention the lack of foreign exchange in the hinterland, that is, most normal countries will not agree, only those who are strong in the economic, trade, science and technology fields, do not care, dare to thoroughly open the market, free trade, weak countries, do not protect their own industries, that is tantamount to death.
This year's policy change, the relaxation of restrictions on joint ventures, in fact, the essence is to attract more foreign-funded factories to invest in China, so as to increase economic growth, of course, there are so many restrictions in the early stage, may not dare to do it at one time, but to take the same reason as the establishment of deep-sea special zones, first test the water, slowly explore, and then gradually expand.
But no matter how to toss and learn, its scope has always been in the field of manufacturing, even because of the international trade and other reasons, it is only the introduction of some overseas equipment to balance trade, rather than opening up the domestic market, especially the service industry, only a few industries can allow foreign investment, such as hotels, that is also because the mainstream customers that hotels need to entertain are overseas customers, and they can also earn foreign exchange for the country.
"I naturally know this, but in the past few years, there are a lot of policies in China, but we can continue to cooperate, the fundamental reason for this is the foreign exchange problem, I can still make a commitment that I will not transfer the profits I earn within ten years, but will continue to invest in the country, what does Director Lin think?" Chen Zhiwen asked.
Although it is very simple to say, except for Chen Zhiwen, other foreign investors will really not agree to such conditions, for example, Wal-Mart, if you let them invest in China now, and then the money is not allowed to go out for ten years, then they will definitely not agree. If you don't know the future, for example, India, let you say how awesome your future is, let a large foreign capital invest in it and not allow foreign exchange to be exchanged for ten years, then you will definitely not find any investors.
Although it doesn't seem cost-effective, but only in this way, it is possible to gain a foothold in the country earlier, you know, the retail industry, unlike other industries, ordinary goods, is recognized as a brand, as long as it sells well, the factory is desperate to produce on the line, but retail is the need to build a store, no matter how big the brand is, there is no store nearby or the store is far away, then it is basically excluded, there is no opportunity, the mainland in a few decades, is also a regional retail economy, unlike Europe and the United States, people generally drive to the big shopping, In this case, it is possible to go to a store that is a little farther away.
Due to the factors of domestic real estate prices and the terrible rent problem in the future, RT-Mart and Parknshop Supermarket under Watsons will inevitably expand through self-owned properties, so that they will not be troubled by rent in the future, but the disadvantage is that the expansion speed is very slow, which requires a lot of funds to support, even if it is backed by Chen Zhiwen, it is also a bit difficult, especially the competitors Wal-Mart, Carrefour and other foreign-funded retail supermarkets will adopt the way of leasing, and the expansion speed is bound to be the gap between heaven and earth.
There is another reason, that is, the domestic online shopping market will begin to develop at the beginning of the 21st century, thereby suppressing traditional retail, although Chen Zhiwen will inevitably find a way to participate in it in the future, but as a Hong Kong capital, he estimates that it is unlikely to build such a shopping platform by himself, and the policy will probably not agree, and even if it agrees, it is not necessarily better than the king enterprise that has been rolled out by a billion people in China.
And investment is also a good choice, but the problem is that history has changed too much, whether you can successfully step on this boat in the future is still a question, and another is also close to 20 years later, I expand my career now, and I will not give up because of the possibility of 20 years later.
Theoretically speaking, if you can expand retail in China ten years earlier, and because of the early, you can also choose the best location, then you can get an unprecedented advantage over other foreign brands, and even if the online shopping market appears, it will not affect too much, later generations have Wal-Mart in the United States, Carrefour in Europe, Auchan, etc., but there is no super large retail supermarket chain in China, the most fundamental reason is the emergence of online shopping, which limits the expansion of physical retail, but if the physical retail expansion is early, That won't be crushed by online shopping.
"I understand what Chen Sheng means, but this is still a little different, before your company was also a key export industry, and the things sold in China are also needed in China." Director Lin paused and said: "I understand that investment and the market need to coexist, and it is very fair for Chen Sheng to want to open up the domestic market, but the retail industry involves too many things, and allowing foreign capital to enter may cause many problems." ”
"Director Lin, did you know that in developed countries, the most real job creation is often not the factory, but the service industry." Chen Zhiwen didn't care, but said: "There is nothing wrong with a country developing its economy and wanting to rely on more exports, everyone wants a trade surplus, but there is always a limit to such a thing, you can't always be in surplus, otherwise the deficit country must have opinions, so if you want to develop the economy, you must increase domestic consumption."
I also know that the current per capita income in China is not very high, but the problem is that rich people do not consume, and the money is precipitated, just like the ancient landlords put a large amount of silver and jewelry in their own cellars, doesn't that mean that the economy is a pool of stagnant water? ”
"To stimulate consumption, the people have to have money in their hands, right?" Director Lin asked.
"We don't need all people to have money, even if only 5% of people have it, what we need to do is to let these people consume, and when they consume, we can make the money circulate, so that more people have income, and then they also consume, and eventually most of the people have employment and consumption, and they can also drive factories on a large scale, you can't expect all the factories in the mainland to rely on exports, right?" Chen Zhiwen asked rhetorically.
"What Chen Sheng said makes sense, and the central government is also considering the matter of domestic internal consumption, but this matter seems to have nothing to do with Chen Sheng's investment in the retail industry, right?" Director Lin said more tactfully, if it is someone else, even if it is a retail giant in other countries, it has nothing to do with the country, then it is natural to give some face, but Chen Zhiwen is not good, not to mention that people have invested so many projects with an output value of hundreds of millions of dollars or even more than one billion dollars in China for so many years, that is, the company's company, which brings millions of jobs and more than one billion dollars of pure foreign exchange income every year to a large number of orders in China. There are no major contradictions or anything like that, it's definitely a friend. Besides, the demands put forward by people are only commercial trade, which is not excessive.
"There's nothing too direct about it, but only the advanced retail industry can stimulate consumption, isn't it? The retail system developed by Western countries to the present is the final product of the competition of multiple business models, that is, the optimal solution, so it is more necessary to introduce such a model in China. Chen Zhiwen said: "I also understand the domestic worries, after all, retail itself does not produce production value, if foreign retail into the country, it will only cause domestic foreign exchange losses, but I have also cooperated with the country in many industries, I am more optimistic about the future of the country in a few decades, rather than how many dollars can be earned from the country now, then the introduction of Hong Kong's retail business model, there is no substantial loss."
Just like domestic people open their own stores, my RT-Mart and Parknshop supermarkets have been operating in Shenhai City for several years, Director Lin can send someone to check, many people in the local area, especially those who have a little money, but often go to the supermarket to consume, these consumer goods are from China, which will inevitably drive industrial development, and another, retail itself can also drive a lot of employment, a supermarket, at least three or four hundred employees. ”
Director Lin thought for a while and said: "Chen Sheng, our country also needs to be cautious in many things, not only the future, but also the present in many cases, not only the retail industry, but also any industry, too advanced Western industries to come in, will cause a strong impact, we also need to consider a lot of current problems." ”
"In this regard, I have also considered, if the country agrees to my Watsons to enter the country, then in the last five years or so, I will only choose some cities to invest, and we can negotiate the specific amount, so that there is another advantage, that is, it can be used as a test product for the future domestic retail industry, no matter what, the country wants to trade freely in the world, then this step, it is also a matter of time." Chen Zhiwen said again.
Other countries will not be stupid, you come to me to invest freely, I go to you then no, if only a small number of special industries such as tobacco, banking, petroleum, steel and other industries related to national security, each country will have a lot of protection policies, said in the past, but other ordinary service industries, there are still many restrictions, then there is no reason. You can't keep making my money and won't let me earn yours, right? The capitalists will not agree either.
Although the developed countries themselves are very strong in all fields, the essence of engaging in this kind of "trade freedom" is actually to use their own advantages to open up the markets of developing countries, but there is no way, and now it is the Western society that dominates the global economy, that is, in the name of free trade, to carry out this kind of scheme.
"Isn't one deep-sea special zone enough?" Director Lin asked rhetorically, Shenhai City, that can be tossed casually, as long as it is not illegal, then many existing things in the West can be learned, where enterprises can already be wholly owned, the service industry is open to the outside world, in the past few years, it can be regarded as right and wrong, summed up a lot of experience.
"Shenhai City is a very good test field, the central government set this policy is really powerful, but the original choice of Bao'an County, in addition to its proximity to Hong Kong, is also because of its small scale, which has little impact on the overall economy." Chen Zhiwen smiled and said, "But because of the small scale, many of the experiments in this can't be directly moved to other places, right?" From a deep-sea city to an entire country, there must be other intermediate experimental sites in between, right? ”
"Chen Sheng, this kind of domestic has almost 20 special zones? That's the purpose. Director Lin said.
"Yes, but the degree of openness of these special zones to the outside world is still far less than that of Shenhai City." Chen Zhiwen said: "Although the current economy of Shenhai City is not as good as that of other special zone cities, the growth rate is very high, and other special zone cities can only further open up if they want to catch up." ”
"This kind of thing is not something I can decide, Mr. Chen." Director Lin said helplessly, in fact, it is generally believed that the degree of opening up to the outside world will be conducive to economic development, but things still have to be done step by step, the first is to reduce risks, and the second is to take into account the impact on the existing economic pattern.
"I know this, so I propose that we can first open up the foreign-funded retail industry in various special zone cities, or in other words, we can also make joint ventures with local retailers, so that the foreign-funded retail industry can also bring the retail model of developed countries to China, and stimulate the consumption desire of domestic people, so as to further develop the economy." Chen Zhiwen said.
If you want to directly open up foreign capital in China, I'm afraid it's a little difficult, but if you can make a joint venture, so as to make yourself first, that's not a problem, and then spend some money to recover the shares after the policy came down in the 90s, time is the most important, once the first-mover advantage is occupied, it will be far ahead.
"Chen Sheng, the national policy is unlikely to target your side, if the permission is down, then other foreign-funded supermarkets are also okay." Director Lin reminded tactfully.
"That's fine." Chen Zhiwen said indifferently. (End of chapter)