HK$650 Battle (Part I)
In July 1997, when the whole of Hong Kong was still celebrating its return to the motherland, an unprecedented Asian financial turmoil still kicked off.
As early as 1993, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, a 38-year-old information minister of Singapore was shocked: Asia will become the leader of the global economy. Because according to calculations, if the Asian economy has been growing at the previous 6 percent, by 2000 East Asia will account for 30 percent of the world's economy.
After the bursting of Japan's real estate bubble crisis, the world laughed at how arrogant the former Japanese officials and foundations were, and actually claimed to buy the entire United States and then rent it back to the Americans. But when it happens to me, it's not the same.
At that time, the take-off Asian economy created an epoch-making economic miracle, and the World Bank did not hesitate to spend a lot of money to invite a large number of experts to study the driving force and mechanism of the rise of Asian countries, because in World War II, Asia's losses were greater than Europe's, but the subsequent economic development speed far exceeded that of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe and other regions that were almost not affected by the war, and the Middle East relied on underground oil, which was slightly better.
The whole of Asia has made very high achievements in various economic fields, such as tourism, port trade, airports, automobiles, electronics, finance, and infrastructure, and all other countries except Europe and the United States, and the speed of development is even more outrageous, even exceeding that of Europe and the United States in the early years of development.
In particular, the four Asian tigers have created an unprecedented economic miracle, and the Pacific economic circle is about to emerge, and the global economy has paid attention to Asia, especially Southeast Asia.
Compared with the Asian economy, European and American countries have fallen into a state of economic stagnation, and the United States relies on Silicon Valley companies, and the data is a little better, and some scholars have even put forward the "Western recession theory", singing short of the West and long of the East.
This is actually an obvious "killing", but many people are still fooled, East Asian countries, for the sake of further economic achievements, began a variety of "high-risk" operations, anyway, as long as the Asian economy does not collapse, no matter how big the risk is, it will not turn into reality.
The whole of East Asia is completely floating, especially when many Americans began to work for East Asian bosses, which satisfied their psychological changes, quite a kind of happiness in public opinion 20 years ago, when the British in Hong Kong worked for the Chinese.
Even Argentina and Australia intend to add the ASEAN Free Trade Area in East Asia, completely ignoring their own geographical location, a bit like little Japan once proposed the policy of "leaving Asia and joining Europe".
However, all this is actually just a dream, a bubble driven by hot money, and by 1997, it was almost bursting.
The fundamental reason for the earliest development of East Asia is that after the emergence of containers, the cost of marine transportation has decreased sharply, coupled with factors such as the high cost of labor in Europe and the United States, and the blood sucking of labor unions, it is also intended to increase the transfer of a large number of labor-intensive enterprises in the country.
The relocation of a large number of industries has naturally led to economic development, but the biggest problem of human economy and society is that when the economy has some achievements, the accompanying bloodsucking real estate finance will also follow.
Both local and overseas capital have found that how can they make money by speculating in houses when building factories? So a lot of capital, entered.
The problem lies here, these countries, unlike the mainland, do not restrict foreign exchange control in order to attract foreign investment, which means that foreign capital can leave and cash out at will after making money in China.
For example, if a large overseas capital invests one billion dollars to enter the real estate market of an East Asian country to buy property, and a few years later, the country's prices have risen fivefold, regardless of the exchange rate and tax issues, then if you sell it and cash out, it is equivalent to making a net profit of 4 billion US dollars from that country.
Not to mention, you can also use leverage to enter the real estate market, and at the same time, local companies can also cash out dollars in this way.
The same goes for the stock market.
When international investors feel that your country's economy is okay and the future economy will get better and better, they will bring in a lot of capital to enter, and the real estate and stock market belong to the more people enter, the better the data, so everyone hello and I am good together, but once it is almost time, a large amount of money is ready to leave, that is the beginning of the crash.
This is just like a bank being run, even a bank with normal business cannot withstand the run, and in the same way, a normal country's foreign exchange reserves cannot withstand the withdrawal of a large amount of funds that have been invested and have now appreciated several times or even ten times.
Once there is a real run, in order to avoid the country's foreign exchange being run on and empty, the local currency exchange rate must be depreciated on a large scale, because only the depreciation will be carried out, and the domestic and foreign capital that holds a large amount of local currency and is ready to exchange it can only be exchanged for less foreign exchange.
Hedge funds such as Soros took advantage of this threshold to shorting the country's currency on a large scale, and shorting needed to be sold in advance, which increased the depreciation pressure on the country's currency.
As long as the government does not have enough foreign exchange, then the currency must be devalued, otherwise once the foreign exchange is gone, the local currency will only collapse even more.
In this way, Soros is naturally making a lot of money. This was the case with the British pound, the Mozi peso, and various South American currencies.
The first to be attacked in Asia is Thailand, Thailand's debt, at this time is extremely heavy, the internal housing prices are high enough, among several Asian countries with better economic development, it is relatively poor, just suitable for the fuse to detonate the Asian financial crisis.
So, Soros personally came forward to promote that the Thai baht will inevitably depreciate this year, you know, after the previous war against the British pound and the Mexican peso against national currencies, Soros has become the world's top financial speculator, no one can beat it, although his success is also the result of the eagle sauce and a large amount of money to follow him, but this is also his ability.
In addition, Thailand's own economy has really serious problems, and even the internal government meeting in early 97 judged that there will be negative growth in exports and economy this year, and the world has begun to be not optimistic about the Thai baht exchange rate, which is also what Soros needs, once everyone is not optimistic, then your country is no problem, and it is difficult to withstand the run.
Since February, Soros began to short-sell the Thai baht on a large scale, along with other speculators, putting great pressure on the Thai government, investing more than $4 billion a month and still unable to keep the Thai baht exchange rate falling, in June this year, the Thai government turned to Japan and Malaysia, but they were all refused, and finally, Thailand's deputy prime minister and commerce minister resigned.
On July 2, the day after Hong Kong's return to the motherland, the Thai government used up $35 billion in foreign exchange and finally had to give up the Thai baht currency and change to free floating, but on this day, the price of the Thai baht plummeted by 20%, and no one knows how much profit Soros made from it.
And East Asian countries, there is a lot of cooperation and debt relations with each other, one of the exchange rate plummeted, will inevitably affect other countries, plus Soros also immediately followed, attacking the currencies of other countries, for a while, the entire Asian financial market, blood and rain, some countries like Thailand, desperately resisted, the result could not withstand the attack of empty orders, and finally had to be the same as Thailand, foreign exchange lost at the same time, the exchange rate still plummeted, so, some countries directly raised their hands and surrendered, resisted a little, It was announced that the exchange rate was only floating.
Soon after March, in just three months, the currencies of more than a dozen Asian countries have fallen one after another, and Soros alone is estimated to have earned more than 10 billion US dollars in profits, and he is only one of the larger of countless locusts, and a large number of other hot money has participated in it, looting the wealth of Asian countries for 30 years of development.
Although this bubble would have been punctured without this attack, the actions of these hedge funds have seriously increased the losses of Asian countries.
In October 1997, in the foreign exchange market, a large number of short orders in Hong Kong dollars were suddenly thrown down, which caused panic in the market in an instant, and everyone knew that it was Soros who came. The stock price of the whole Hong Kong has also plummeted, and even the transaction volume of housing prices has also declined, after all, if the Hong Kong dollar also has a sharp decline, then as long as the assets in Hong Kong, everything has to fall.
Hong Kong, Hutchison House Headquarters.
"Chen Sheng, now a large number of Hong Kong people are beginning to desperately exchange dollars or gold, which puts a lot of pressure on the Hong Kong dollar." A middle-aged man about 45 years old said that he was Yang Wenkai, the successor of Zhou Jiayang of the Hutchison Group.
"Normally, Soros's most powerful helpers are actually not those international hot money, but all the panicked people in every region and inside." Chen Zhiwen said calmly.
In such a currency confrontation, Soros's greatest contribution is not his funds, but his fame, which is actually what many followers behind them need, they need a famous person to take the lead, so as to cause panic among the people and capital in the other country.
Imagine that when other neighboring countries and regions depreciate their currencies by more than 20% under Soros's attack, then he is now targeting Hong Kong, and how many people are confident that Hong Kong can block this attack?
Although Hong Kong is a developed region, after all, it is just a city with a world-famous "free market policy", and besides, if the Hong Kong dollar is now exchanged for dollars or gold, then if Soros wins, he will not lose, and if the Hong Kong government wins, he still does not lose, and if he does not change, there may be a 50% chance of losing.
In this case, many people will definitely choose to redeem. But how can people in a country or region not believe in their own currency anymore and ask for foreign exchange, it will bring more pressure to the government than Soros, and no government can withstand this kind of run, which is also one of the reasons why Soros can still win in many battles with country-level currencies.
"Do we need to prepare?" Yang Wenkai asked, the whole group has mobilized a lot of dollars in the past few years, they didn't know what it was for, until the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, they also understood the boss's intentions, and they also had to admire, their boss is really too powerful.
"Don't worry about it for the time being, we can only be regarded as a surprise soldier, not the main force, the Hong Kong government has sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and there are many policies that can be used, and it will not be so easy to be defeated like the countries in Southeast Asia." Chen Zhiwen said.
Although he is a rich country, it can only be said that it is worthy of an ordinary small country, which is far worse than a big country, and he will not be more anxious than the original owner, just wait for the right time.
"Okay." Yang Wenkai said.
"Housing prices in Hong Kong may fall, you pay attention to it, Hisense Bank is a little relaxed, if it is not a house speculation, normal people should not be forced too tightly, let alone collect the house, you can appropriately postpone the collection or reduce the interest according to the situation, this is also the time when we get a good reputation." Chen Zhiwen said again.
"Understood, Chen Sheng." Yang Wenkai replied.
As expected, although Hong Kong's economy also has a big bubble, it itself has some real materials, the Hong Kong government's foreign exchange reserves are abundant, and a large number of Chinese in Hong Kong will not be so easy to panic to exchange foreign exchange, and there are even many rich people, secretly agreed not to run on foreign exchange, plus this first attack, it is only a test of Soros, after the Hong Kong government contacted to raise the overnight loan interest, Soros's short-selling capital retreated.
In the following half a year, Soros's capital attacked South Korea strongly, resulting in an unprecedented crisis in the South Korean economy, South Korea's local large conglomerates, have fallen into a serious debt crisis, among them, it is also their own consortia, in the early days, large-scale borrowing, the most exaggerated loan data is 5 times their own assets, after the Korean won plummeted, international banks forced debts, including Samsung, including the consortium has a serious crisis, another large consortium Daewoo, even directly announced its collapse.
Japan was also attacked, but it was too large and had deep relationships with many American conglomerates, and in the end, international travel was stopped in the Japanese market.
In 1998, international investors and Soros began to target Hong Kong and Russia again, intending to achieve their goal of being the eagle sauce behind their backs by indirectly or directly attacking the two major powers in the P5.
In July, international speculators in the futures, foreign exchange, and stock markets at the same time, constantly sniping at the Hong Kong dollar, in order to force the Hong Kong government to raise the interest rate, and once the Hong Kong government in order to protect the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to raise the interest, the stock market will inevitably plummet, and the international speculators who previously shorted the stock market, can make huge profits from it.
Exchange rate and stock market, choose one of the two, this is Soros's most common trick, and most countries will choose to maintain the exchange rate, then they can get huge returns in the stock market, several times in a row, then the economy of this region or country will inevitably be affected like never before.
At the same time, the foreign exchange in the hands of the government will also be depleted in this process, and when the foreign exchange is finally used up or the government gives up, the exchange rate will plummet, so that the country will make a lot of money in the process of shorting the exchange rate.
Soros's war with the government is not only in the financial market, but also in the public opinion market, and a large number of people have also begun to announce in Hong Kong that the Hong Kong dollar and the yuan are about to plummet, and everyone hurries to exchange dollars. This is to let all Hong Kong citizens run on the Hong Kong government's exchange fund, and once it is really run, then Soros can win without a fight.
At the headquarters of the Landmark Building, which had just been built, Chen Zhiwen looked at the bustling crowd of foreign exchange not far away, so he said to Yang Wenkai beside him: "Immediately publicly announce that our group is optimistic about the future of the Hong Kong market and is ready to buy the Hang Seng Index and all blue-chip stocks in all Hong Kong trading markets on a large scale." ”
Soros has a lot of means with international speculators, interlocking, and he doesn't need to fight him in the foreign exchange market, as long as the stock market is raised, then, before they attack the Hong Kong dollar, the futures of Hong Kong stocks will be liquidated, and once a link goes wrong, it will definitely disrupt his layout. (End of chapter)