Chapter 379: Analysis of Timur's Eastern Expedition to the Ming Dynasty in Another Time and Space

Last time, I said that during the Ming Dynasty, Central Asia was full of heroes, and you sang and I appeared, and the descendants of the Timurid Empire, who had tried to conquer the Ming Dynasty, went to India.

In a different time and space, if there is any country in the world that can compete with China's "Ming Dynasty" in the period from the end of the 14th century to the beginning of the 15th century, then the "Timur Empire" in Central Asia can definitely be counted as one, because Timur's ability is by no means much weaker than that Genghis Khan!

Don't underestimate "Timur", this person has never been defeated in more than 40 years of his life, it can be said that he is not only a generation of "heroes", but also a "legend", and even a "milestone", which can be used as one of the "examples" of the leaders of ancient nomadic tribes in Central Asia and even West Asia or feudal warlords in various places!

However, even if the small Central Asian world became "invincible", it still could not satisfy the ambition of "Timur", because he defeated the Iranian "Ilkhanid" and "Ottoman Turkish Empire", and in November 1404, "Timur" personally led an army of 200,000 to embark on the road of the eastward expedition to the Ming Dynasty.

According to the memories of the Arabs in Samarkand at that time, "Timur" sent troops since ancient times, and the logistics work had never been as solid as this time.

It can be seen that in the heart of "Timur", the "Ming Empire" is more difficult to deal with than any of his opponents. Although "Timur" was quite well prepared, he began to lose troops before he reached the border of the Ming Dynasty for many reasons, even if he had done intelligence gathering more than ten years in advance, it was still unavoidable.

First of all, this was a veritable expedition, with most of the Gobi Desert on the way, with unbearable heat during the day and freezing cold at night. In addition, there was a heavy snowfall on the way, and many people and horses were stiffened. Second, although the expeditionary force of "Timur" claimed to be a "200,000-strong army", it was undoubtedly a tired army when it really safely crossed the "Green Ridge" (Pamir Plateau) and the "Sea of Death Sand" (Taklamakan Desert) to reach the northwestern border of the Ming Dynasty.

However, the preparations on the Ming side were not much better, because from late February 1405 AD, when the army of "Timur" advanced to "Beishi Bali" ("Yili Jiangli" i.e., Yili, Xinjiang) and was only 400 kilometers away from the important western border town of "Hamiwei" in the Ming Dynasty, Zhu Di's Ming government (the whole court) felt that things were not good. At that time, the imperial court originally did not believe that there was an enemy army in the far west of the Western Regions that could cross the "Great Snow Mountain" and cross the sand sea?

According to historical records: "When the imperial court heard that Timur had said 'don't lose eight miles', he led his troops eastward, and ordered Song Sheng, the chief military officer of Gansu, to be vigilant. "The enemy army is about to fight, "Ming Taizong" Zhu Di ordered to prepare for battle, but fortunately, it is not too late at this time, even if he tries his best to defend the northwest, it should be able to drag on for a few days.

At that time, the Ming Dynasty that "Timur" had to face was a huge country with about 1.1 million standing soldiers mobilizing capacity, and only the first station of its eastern crusade, the Ming Northwest Zhuwei, had an army of 155,000 people. So, "Timur" wanted to conquer the Ming Dynasty and rely on his own 200,000 elite cavalry alone? It's simply impossible!

However, if the two armies went to war, "Timur" was likely to create great confusion in the northwest of the Ming Dynasty, because the "garrisons of the guards" in the Ming Dynasty were basically infantry-based, to put it bluntly, "military households" or "armed peasants", and they suffered a great loss in the face of the cavalry charge of the nomadic tribes.

As we all know, the Hui and Mongolian ethnic groups are the majority of the Gan and Liang soldiers, and the Han soldiers are basically "outsiders". Among them, especially the "Muslims", because these people in the northwestern army of the Ming Dynasty, in the face of the powerful offensive launched by the "theocratic" Islamic state, it is inevitable that there will be traitors.

There are many "Muslims" (who believe in "Islam") in the northwest, and if they are called for "holy war" issued by "Timur", this part of the Ming Dynasty people is very likely to join the "Timur" army, just like the "Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement" in later generations will become a supplementary soldier of Timur's army.

After all, there is only one "true God" in "Islam," and like "Christianity," "Catholicism," and "Judaism," all of them are typical "monotheistic religions," which not only vigorously exclude believers from believing in other religions, but are also extremely domineering and rude.

However, on February 18, 1405, the elderly "Timur" drank too much alcohol and suddenly died, so that the army of the Eastern Crusade ended in a hasty retreat. This may be the best outcome for the "Timurid Empire" in the West and the "Ming Empire" in the East, right?

Because sixteen years later, that is, in 1421, when Zhu Di, the "ancestor of the Ming Dynasty", held a military parade in Beijing, he showed his muscles to the envoys of various countries who took the opportunity, and Gaisuyadin, the deputy envoy of the "Timurid Empire" who participated in the "military parade and viewing ceremony", frankly expressed his views on the military strength of the Ming Dynasty in his "Memoirs": "

I have to admit that it was a lucky thing that the Great ('Timur') died on the way to the East, which allowed him to preserve his name for the rest of his life. ”

First of all, the strength of the army of the "Timurid Empire" was indeed very strong in the world at that time. Under the rule of "Timur", Central Asia had a prosperous economy, a large population, a well-equipped army, and extremely strong combat effectiveness. "Timur" once personally commanded the army to conquer neighboring countries and regions many times, including Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, India and other places. Therefore, when "Timur" went east to conquer the Ming Dynasty, his army had strong combat power and aggressiveness.

Secondly, Timur's diplomatic methods were also very skillful, because he had conducted many diplomatic negotiations with the Ming Dynasty, trying to resolve the contradictions between the two countries through peaceful means, such as ethnic and religious issues. However, the Ming side was not willing to cooperate with him, but took a tough attitude.

Therefore, "Timur" had to resort to military means to solve this problem. However, Timur's eastern crusade against the Ming Dynasty also had some difficulties and challenges. First of all, the Ming Dynasty was one of the most powerful empires in Chinese history, with a strong military force and advanced scientific and technological level in the world at that time.

Secondly, the geographical location of the Ming Dynasty was also very superior, with vast grasslands in the north, that is, many nomadic tribes as barriers, deserts, snow-capped mountains and plateaus in the west, and the sea in the east, with vast territory and rich resources. This made the "Timurid army" face great difficulties and challenges when attacking the Ming Dynasty.

In addition, the "Timur" crusade to the Ming Dynasty also faced internal political and military problems. During the invasion of the Ming Dynasty, its army had to face resistance and resistance from different regions. At the same time, he also needs to manage his relations with other Central Asian countries to avoid triggering greater conflicts and wars.

To sum up, although the "Timur" Eastern Expedition to the Ming Dynasty had a certain chance of victory, there were also many difficulties and challenges. In the end, "Timur" not only failed to conquer the Ming Dynasty, but also suffered heavy losses in the war. It's like the ancient Greek Alexander originally wanted to go east to China, but went to India.

On November 27, 1404, "Timur", who had defeated the Golden Horde, the Delhi Sultanate, the Mamluk Dynasty of Egypt, the Ottoman Turkish Empire and other surrounding powers and reached the peak of his conquest, was still not satisfied with his great achievements, because the grandest ideal in his heart was to rebuild the "Genghis Khan Empire", because the ancestors of "Timur" were "Turkicized" Mongols, that is, Mongols who were unified into Islam.

And in order to fulfill this ideal that shocked the world, "Timur" had to conquer the Chinese Ming Dynasty in the east. To this end, Timur, who was over seventy years old, led an "army" of 800,000 men (in fact, only 200,000 horses) and began his campaign to attack the greatest country in the East (the Ming Dynasty of China).

When "Timur" sent heavy troops to march into the Ming Dynasty, Zhu Di, the "Yongle Emperor" who had just won a tragic victory in the bloody storm of the "Battle of Jingyan", had only been on the throne for two years, and the throne had not yet been secured, but he had to face a stronger and more dangerous "Muslim" challenger who had jumped out of a distant western land.

However, just when the "court was in a hurry to deal with it" in order to "make amends", everything was unpredictable, and it can also be said that God blessed the Ming Dynasty and let the poor "old horseman" Timur drink and get drunk to death. In this way, Zhu Di, the "Emperor of Yongle", had a false alarm, and after thinking about it, he had to strengthen the border defense in the northwest.

However, history repeats itself, if "Timur" did not die on the way to the Ming Dynasty, but successfully led the army into the Central Plains according to the intelligence collection route, this period of history may be unique, because the "Ming Chengzu" at that time had just ascended the throne and had not yet gained a stable foothold, and may not be able to withstand the attack of 200,000 elite cavalry.

The reason for this can be compared to the situation of the "Qing army entering the customs" in later generations, after all, the "Jianwen Imperial Court" in Nanjing did not cooperate with Zhu Di's "usurpers and rebels".

First, in order to consolidate the "imperial power", Zhu Yuanzhang, the "Taizu of the Ming Dynasty", did not hesitate to kill a large number of generals in the Ming army who could fight well, which was unprecedented in the destruction of the combat effectiveness of the Ming army, and has affected until the "Yongle period", and a small number of outstanding Ming army generals who escaped the catastrophe died in the civil war in the "Battle of Jingjing", and the generals of the central army of the Ming Dynasty who belonged to Emperor Jianwen who did not die in the civil war were not trustworthy for Zhu Di, who had just won the throne.

Of course, these generals of the "Jianwen Imperial Court" are also full of misgivings about the "new monarch" Zhu Di, and if these generals are allowed to lead troops to the battlefield to fight against the "Timur" army, the army will inevitably be unstable, and the result can be imagined. Of course, some people may say that Zhu Di can lead the troops without these people!

However, things are not so simple, because without this group of generals to lead the troops, then this battle basically does not need to be fought, unless only the northern "Yan Army" descendants led by Zhu Di himself, but the strength is too weak, even if it is ordered to recruit the "Duoyan Sanwei" Mongolian cavalry stationed in the northeast to participate in the war, there is still no certainty of victory. The Central Army of "Emperor Jianwen" was the main force of the Ming Dynasty, and these generals of the Central Army must be used in a national crisis.

caused this situation, the "fourth son" Zhu Di may have to complain about his father "Zhu Chongba", because in the twenty-sixth year of "Hongwu" (1393), Zhu Yuanzhang in order to strengthen the centralized rule, he used the excuse of "Liangguo Gong" Lan Yu to rebel, so he began to wantonly and deliberately kill heroes and famous generals.

More than 15,000 people were killed because of the "Blue Jade Case"! In addition, Zhu Yuanzhang took the "Lanyu case" as an "opportunity", not only killed the "Lanyu family" (the whole family), but even Fu Youde, Feng Sheng, Wang Bi and other princes, all of whom were implicated. In this way, it can reduce the threat of "heroes with different surnames" to the "family world" of the "royal family surnamed Zhu", which can be said to be "cheeky and black-hearted" and "despicable and obscene"! But that's "politics"! The essence of politics is "power struggle"!

The vast majority of those killed in this case were military generals in the Ming army, and many of them were veterans who had been in a hundred battles and were resourceful. In the previous "Hu Weiyong case", more than 30,000 people who were killed were mainly civil ministers, because Zhu Yuanzhang firmly believed that only by completely controlling his "imperial power" could he sit back and relax!

Zhu Yuanzhang's wanton slaughter of many generals in the Ming army this time, from the "Timur" in 1404 to conquer the Ming Dynasty, only 11 years have passed in time, and in such a short period of time, the Ming army is impossible to recover in any case, because the outstanding generals of the Ming army who were killed are by no means able to be cultivated in a short period of time. This is also one of the most valuable pieces of information obtained by "Timur" after more than ten years of repeated collection of intelligence from the Ming Dynasty!

And in just eleven years, the Ming army still had four years to fight the "civil war", that is, the "Battle of Jingyan". And in this "battle for the throne", the total strength of Zhu Di's "Yan Army" was about 300,000, while the "Central Army" of "Emperor Jianwen" participated in the war reached 1 million!

In the "Civil War", the "Yan Army" suffered more than 60,000 casualties, while the Central Army suffered more than 500,000 casualties! The huge casualties of the "civil war" made the situation of the Ming Dynasty army, which was already greatly injured, even worse. If it weren't for the previous "Tatar" and "Vala" being repeatedly beaten down by Zhu Yuanzhang, I am afraid that they would have gone south long ago.

Second, if the Ming Dynasty transferred its main force to the west to meet the enemy in order to deal with the "Timur" Eastern Expeditionary Army, the Mongolian tribes in the northern steppes, which were the mortal enemies of the Ming Dynasty, would definitely take advantage of this opportunity to join the "Timur" Eastern Expeditionary Army to attack the Ming Dynasty at the same time, occupy the Central Plains, and restore the Yuan Dynasty!

For the relatively powerful Mongolian steppe tribes such as the Tatars, Wala, and Uliangha, it was not difficult to jointly dispatch hundreds of thousands of iron cavalry to break through the defense line of the Ming Great Wall, which was an important town on the nine sides. As a result, the Mongol cavalry marched south to the Central Plains, and the Ming Dynasty infantry with low morale alone could not stop it!

In this way, Daming is in danger! After all, from the previous "Song Dynasty" was twice destroyed by foreign tribes, and in addition to the reappearance of the situation of the "Manchu Qing Dynasty" in later generations, even if the military strength of the "Ming Empire" is strong, how can the "Yongle Emperor" be good at fighting, just relying on the infantry with declining strength and low morale, and at the same time facing two-front operations, it is simply impossible to resist the attack of the two most powerful cavalry in the world at that time, this is incomprehensible!

In the face of this "dead end", even if "Zhu Yuanzhang" rerises underground, I am afraid that he is helpless and has no skills to return to heaven, and can only watch the "Ming Dynasty" created by his "old Zhu family" collapse and collapse, and finally reproduce the tragic tragedy of the "Five Hu Chaohua" more than a thousand years ago, that is, the Han people were slaughtered!

Although the Yuan Dynasty established by the Mongols was destroyed by the Ming Dynasty in 1368, and the Mongols were forcibly driven back to the desert steppe by Zhu Yuanzhang, it does not mean that the Mongols are the last of the crossbows and vulnerable, because the "nomads" have "ferocious blood" flowing in their veins, and they like to plunder and kill.

From 1370 to 1396, Zhu Yuanzhang, Taizu of the Ming Dynasty, carried out eight northern expeditions against the remnants of the Yuan Empire. After the Northern Expedition of Ming Taizu, the Mongols were divided into Tatars, Warat, and Uliangha, but they still threatened the Central Plains at all times, so they were still regarded as a major problem by Ming Chengzu.

In order to completely solve the remnants of the Yuan Dynasty, Zhu Di, who was the later Ming Chengzu, decided to personally lead the Ming army to carry out the Northern Expedition and conquer Mongolia five times.

So, what is the scale of Ming Chengzu Zhu Di's conquest of Mongolia? What problems can be seen from this series of solicitations?

According to the "History of the Ming Dynasty": "Next year (the eighth year of Yongle, 1410 AD), the emperor will enter the fortress with 500,000 soldiers. Benjamin was afraid of hearing this, and wanted to go west with Arutai, Arutai did not obey, the crowd was scattered, and the monarchs and ministers began to be their own subordinates...... "If the historical records are true, the scale of Yongle Emperor's northern expedition to the Mongolian steppe is enough to make people staggering, and it can even be compared with the scale of the "Mobei Decisive Battle" launched by Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty when he invaded the Xiongnu in the north 1500 years ago!

This can also be used on the other hand, to truly reflect that the strength of Mongolia is still strong, after all, before this, Zhu Di had sent only 100,000 cavalry "luxury lineup" deep into the desert, and the whole army was annihilated. Otherwise, why did Ming Chengzu Zhu Di send such a huge infantry corps to fight?

Imagine if the Mongols, who were so militarily powerful, and the more powerful Turkic people under the command of "Timur", who came to the west and the east, formed an alliance to jointly deal with the militarily sluggish Ming, then what were the chances of victory for the Ming Dynasty? Even if the 500,000 infantry are all part of the "Divine Machine Battalion", I'm afraid they may not be able to defeat it, right? The above reasons are the reasons why Timur conquered the Ming Dynasty in 1404, and Zhu Di, the ancestor of the Ming Dynasty, may be defeated.

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