Chapter Forty-Seven: The Long Night: When Palace's Scheming Meets Bayes' Theorem

The tax controller is sold under the leadership of the special manager, although objectively, the company's image is certainly not pleasing in the enterprise.

But in any case, it was an effective corporate relationship building.

As long as the follow-up service keeps up, the intimate let others have no resentment in their hearts, the product is powerful, and with the paving of the tax control machine, they can continue to sell financial machines in the future.

For enterprises, all enterprises do not like this kind of behavior similar to forced buying and selling, but under the national policy, when everyone suffers from this kind of behavior, everyone naturally accepts it.

Otherwise, it is impossible for the previous tax control plate to be sold for so many years, and every year the company still calls to ask when to pay the service fee, for fear of expiration.

As for the product, everyone took a look, in fact, the configuration is very similar to the previous Yanhuang Guochao series, that is, the graphics card is an integrated graphics card, the appearance is not so bells and whistles, and the product design language is completely the style of a business machine.

The sales of industry machines are not in the traditional market and will not attract people's attention at all.

But this market, although cold, is not small.

After all, in China, there are tens of millions of enterprises, of which 13 million are value-added tax enterprises, which is a huge market.

And with the continuous development of the economy, the deepening of the central and local tax game, since then more and more industries have been classified into the category of value-added tax, and the number of enterprises that need to use tax control machines will also grow sharply, and the entire market is still expanding rapidly.

However, although the market prospect is good, some people still raised questions, "Chairman, we used to do ToC."

ToB sales require professionalism, long-term and in-depth communication with customers, which are faced with the overall needs of the other team, and emphasize the long-term value and scalability of the product or service.

We...... To be honest, we don't live up to this professional requirement. ”

Everyone also reacted, they are indeed sales veterans in the computer industry, but they used to do ToC business, and their professional level could not reach the rapid response model of ToB.

These are two completely different dimensions.

Computer sales, you must understand computers, otherwise you can't sell them.

In the process of selling computer products, they need to introduce the advantages, functions and features of the product to customers, understand the hardware and software knowledge of the product, and better recommend suitable products to customers to meet customer needs.

However, it does not require in-depth technical knowledge to respond to the customer's immediate repair needs.

In other computer vendors, ToB is a special department, and there is a team of hardware engineers to cooperate, but Yanhuang Branch does not have a special team at this time.

Qingyun shrugged his shoulders, "Everyone, the sales personnel of Yanhuang Group in the future must have the business ability of ToB, which is the trend of the company's future development." ”

This is not a multi-functional need.

It is a necessary quality for Yanhuang sales personnel in the future.

Qingyun does not plan to establish a customer service department, in his opinion, it is very one-sided to talk about customer service without sales.

At present, many companies have problems with the positioning of customer service, and sales and customer service are disconnected.

Although many companies have set up a customer service department, in fact, they simply changed the name of the previous after-sales department, and there is no substantial improvement.

After completing a single sale, many salespeople completely hand over the after-sales work to the customer service (after-sales).

In fact, from the customer's point of view, when there is an after-sales problem, he still likes to contact the salesperson and hopes that the salesperson will help him solve the problem.

The most common practice of the salespeople involved is to tell the customer customer service (after-sales) contact information, and the customer will contact by himself, and in the subsequent service processing process, they do not take the initiative to care about whether the specific service customer is satisfied, which actually violates the principle of customer relationship maintenance.

"Closing the deal is not the end of the sales campaign! Closing a deal does not mean the end of the sales pitch, but only the beginning of the relationship pitch process!

In Yanhuang Group, I ask the sales staff not only to sell, but also the first person to undertake customer service, of course, a dedicated team of hardware engineers I will also configure later.

But you ...... If you can't reach school, anyway, at the beginning, because of the sales of tax control machines, you have enough time to transform.

Ladies and gentlemen, I know that this is a painful transition for you, and it is indeed an unpleasant thing to have to re-learn after graduating for so many years, and it is also a great test for you. ”

The employees who were originally a little uncomfortable could only nod helplessly.

In fact, they all understand the reason, but it's really too tiring to do this.

It can only be said that this money ...... It's not easy to earn, but it's a risk.

Think about it, and the mentality will be correct.

After all, Xiaoqing always gives a lot of money.

……

The information and speech training of the industry machine are not what Qingyun, the chairman, should worry about.

After speaking, he took Guo Jing to pat his ass and leave, and handed over the rest to Liu Shiheng and the marketing department of the headquarters, and talked to the three old hooligans next door.

It's just that Emperor Yun's flashing skill was interrupted as soon as he went out, and he stopped abruptly.

took Zhang Li to eavesdrop on Qin Manman, who hadn't had time to withdraw yet, and bumped into him.

Stunned, Qin Manman didn't notice the flash of panic in Qing Yun's eyes.

Seeing Qin Manman with Zhang Li at the door, Emperor Yun's brain was blank.

This is...... The coerced confession has been completed, and now you are ready to clean yourself up?

Mainly before coming to Yanjing, Qin Manman rang the alarm bell for him, saying that there was already a table of mahjong.

I brought one back in the blink of an eye, which was too slap in the face.

But he was smart again, and made a gossip array in a set, ready to get through the trick.

Now it has been broken by Qin Manman's unreasonable and high-profile attitude, just like Zhuge Liang's Eight Array Diagram was directly penetrated when Lu Bu met him, where is this reasonable.

On the contrary, Zhang Li took advantage of the separation of the two of them and quietly gave Qingyun a Wink.

Qingyun was stunned for a moment.

For the first time, he didn't understand the meaning of Zhang Li's Wink.

But he didn't have time to think about anything at all, so he picked up Qin Manman in his arms with both hands and looked at her with a puzzled expression.

After Qin Manman stood firmly, he didn't smile at him.

She felt that everything Zhang Li said was reasonable, and all the situations in front of her were also very reasonable.

She couldn't find a single loophole.

But......

Why did this bad guy show signs of weakness before?

Did she read it wrong?

Qin Manman was a little uncertain now.

She judged it based on her summary of Qingyun's past actions and behaviors, and she can only say that there is a high probability that she is right, but she can't guarantee that she will be right every time.

Could it be that in the conference room, the look of his heart was really a coincidence?

There are too many coincidences in the past two days, right?

It's weird everywhere, but the interlocking logic is self-consistent and reasonable.

Although it is very reasonable and scientific.

However, when discussing the algorithm with Su Caiwei recently, the two girls paid attention to an interesting formula at the same time.

The pearl has been dusty for 200 years, and once it erupts, it will look at the Bayesian formula of the world.

When the theory of real variable functions introduced the theory of probability, the axiomatic foundations of probability theory were formally established, and the classification was nothing more than classical probability and geometric probability.

However, after the emergence of the Bayesian formula, probabilities are divided into traditional probabilities and Bayesian probabilities.

Why is it so classified?

Because probability is originally objective, but Bayes, this buddy, makes objective probability become subjective.

Bayesian probability is a statistical method for calculating a posterior probability through prior probability and observed data.

What is a priori probability?

Prior probability refers to the initial estimate of the probability of an event occurring before data is observed.

This initial estimate is based on previous experience or domain knowledge, and then based on this subjective estimate, the prior probability is modified according to the observed data to obtain the posterior probability of the event.

This was very explosive in the scientific community at that time, and everyone agreed that this was nonsense.

It is no wonder, then, that the formula, proposed in the 18th century, was not used until 200 years later, due to a special event, that the Bayesian formula was recognized.

In May 1968, Americaka's nuclear submarine Scorpio was suddenly sunk by a boomerang of a torpedo launched by itself in the Sea of Azov in the Atlantic Ocean (...... Don't look at me, the truth is so outrageous), the submarine and the 99 officers and sailors on board have not been heard from.

Since the speed of the submarine at the time of the wreck, the direction of travel, the magnitude of the impact of the explosion, and the direction of the rudder of the submarine at the time of the explosion are all unknown, even if it is known where the submarine exploded, it is difficult to determine where the wreckage of the submarine was finally washed away by the seawater.

When the search and rescue first began, people spent months searching for various assumptions and theories to no avail.

If it's an ordinary submarine, then forget it, but it's a nuclear submarine, and the sunken area is the door of Xiong Da's father's house.

In order to find the location of the Scorpion, America secretly mobilized a search force from the country, including a number of experts, to the scene, including a mathematician named John Craven, who was titled "Chief Scientist of the Special Programs Department".

Faced with a clueless search, the mathematician, who has the same name as a movie star, dragged the Bayesian formula out of the pile of old papers, and turned the dead horse into a live horse doctor.

There's no way, if you don't solve it, Xiong Da's dad will go crazy.

Craven brought together mathematicians, submarine experts, maritime search and rescue, and he didn't follow the usual line of thought and asked the team to consult with each other to find a consensus.

Instead, the experts wrote a possible 'playbook' and asked them to guess which direction the situation would go based on their knowledge and experience, and to assess the likelihood of each scenario arising.

In the end, Craven combined the opinions of the experts to come up with a probability map of a 20-mile ocean area.

The whole sea area is divided into many small cells, each of which has two probability values p and q,

p is the probability that the submarine is lying in this grid.

q is the probability that a submarine will be searched if it is in this grid.

According to experience, the probability value of q is mainly related to the depth of the sea area, and the possibility of "slipping through the net" in the deep sea area to search for a wrecked submarine will be greater.

If no trace of a submarine is found after a grid is searched, then according to the Bayesian formula, the probability of the existence of the submarine in this grid will be reduced.

Each time you search, you will first select the grid with the highest probability of the existence of submarines in the entire area and search for it, if it is not found, the probability distribution map will be "shuffled" once, and the search ship will sail to the new 'most suspicious grid' for searching, and so on until the Scorpio is found.

When the search and rescue first began, Navy personnel scoffed at the advice of Craven and his team, who empirically estimated that the submarine was on the seabed on the east side of the blast site.

But after months of searching to no avail, they had to follow Craven's advice and follow a probability map to search the west side of the blast site.

After several searches, the submarine was indeed found on the seabed southwest of the explosion site.

This method based on the Bayesian formula has been successfully applied in many search and rescue practices in the future, and has now become a common practice in search and rescue of maritime and air crashes.

The reason why Qin Manman and Su Caiwei paid attention to this Bayesian formula of 'no one cares about it in life, but it is worth a lot after death' is because they found that the Bayesian formula works wonders how to photograph black people in the dark when taking pictures when taking pictures algorithmically.

Therefore, at this moment, Qin Manman couldn't help but think according to this pattern.

According to the traditional probability, there is no solution.

However, when Qin Manman substituted the initial estimated prior probability of 'Stinky Brother is likely to lie', and then corrected it according to objective events, then all her doubts were solved, and what she got was the posterior probability of 'Stinky Brother is lying'.

But Qin Manman is still uncertain, because the Bayesian formula is a structure in the Markov category, and in general probability theory, the Bayesian formula may not hold, because general probability theory allows for cases where the sum of probabilities is not equal to 1, that is, there may be non-standard probability distributions.

That is, there is a possibility that it is not true.

Therefore, Qin Manman decided to deceive!

Break ten times with one force!

After a smiling sound, Qin Manman, who closed the door, asked with a cold face, "The matter is all settled?" ”

Emperor Yun nodded hurriedly.

Qin Manman snorted coldly, and after giving him a look that he could experience for himself, he turned around and took Zhang Li's arm and walked towards the meeting room.

She found that Zhang Li's existence at this moment was too easy to use.

Zhang Li was in her hands, and she could calmly continue to observe and verify.

If Qingyun lied, he would definitely have a ghost in his heart, thus revealing more flaws.

Although it may not be able to change the fact that Zhang Li is in the game, this can kill two birds with one stone to beat the stinky brother who has the heart of a cat, and Zhang Li, the little who dares to deceive her!

If Qingyun wasn't lying.

It means that she will definitely be cleaned up by her stinky brother tonight.

So...... Zhang Li is on the side, this bad guy will not mess around.

Deal...... She said that she and Zhang Li hit it off at first sight, and they wanted to talk at night, waiting for Lord Qianying to bear the anger.

Zhang Li, who was holding her arm with a smile from Qin Manman, followed her softly and walked forward, like a pair of good girlfriends, and did not dare to look back at the bad man's face.

Emperor Yun, who was standing in place, was suddenly stunned in place, and even his heart missed a few beats.

it?

Qingyun, who was standing still, was not stunned because of Qin Manman's smiling appearance.

It's because Qin Manman and Zhang Li look like best friends.

He knew very well that this was Qin Manman's pinching and beating of him.

What he was puzzled about was that Qin Manman didn't ask the truth from Zhang Li's mouth.

Yes, he was very sure that Zhang Li had successfully deceived Qin Manman.

It's not Zhang Li who reminded him of that Wink just now.

It is Qin Manman's behavior pattern at the moment.

As a human being in two lives, Emperor Yun knows her character better than Qin Manman.

Is Qin Manman polite?

Very polite, she will take the initiative to say hello and thank anyone she meets, without the arrogance that a little princess should have.

Is Qin Manman friendly?

Very friendly, in her previous life, she could squat down and wipe the mud off the faces of the children in his village with a clean handkerchief with a gentle expression.

At first glance, she is a very good daughter who has been raised.

However, this politeness and affinity come from a higher dimensional position.

Just as the chairman is always kind and amiable to the grassroots employees, and just like the big professor will not argue with the little yellow hair.

Debate means that what you said is right, very reasonable, very insightful, I am shallow in my learning, and I am ashamed.

Hidden under that very cultured politeness and affinity, is Qin Manman's natural pride.

It was something carved into her bones.

Her opponent must be in the same style as her, so that she can be regarded as an opponent, and then defeat with all her might.

For this reason, she can even do something like asking him to relieve Tang Qianying in the graduation confession season.

Therefore, her politeness and affinity have boundaries.

Polite alienation, amiable alienation.

In the same dimension, she is polite! Affinity and fart!

Her bad character will always suppress you, in the words of the next ten years, it is the elegant Versailles.

Just like the two in the previous life, she was strong and he was weak, so she always suppressed him.

Of course, this point is more from her inner unwillingness.

Tang Qianying in this life was forced to understand Qin Manman.

Because Qin Manman didn't follow the routine and made an early move that disrupted her original plan, and because he was too strong in this life.

Therefore, in front of Qin Manman, the young Lord Qianying was well-behaved, and not like she dared to be upright in her previous life.

At this time, the situation in front of Emperor Yun was very clear.

Counter-evidence.

Assuming that Qin Manman has interrogated the relationship between the two clearly, and Zhang Li has truthfully explained, then Qin Manman will regard Zhang Li as a person of the same dimension, how could she and Zhang Li behave like best friends?

According to her character, she is definitely like suppressing Tang Qianying before, and she set up the rules of the eldest woman in front of Zhang Li.

Still holding your arm?

It's impossible to walk side by side.

Therefore, the proposition does not hold.

So, another fact has surfaced.

Zhang Li really deceived Qin Manman!!

This discovery shocked Emperor Yun.

Sure enough, none of his women are simple masters.

Needless to say, Qin Manman said.

Chen Yue is completely limited by her own conditions, after all, in her previous life, this girl was the master who was about to get mixed into the center.

Su Caiwei, who plays mathematics, there is no one who is not hearty.

As for Miao-sama......

Hum!

In his previous life, he was a person who was directly with Qin Manman, and Qin Manman couldn't prevent Tang Qianying from running away with the ball, and then preparing to bring the baby king back with his tricks.

He originally thought that the simplest was Zhang Li......

……

(End of chapter)