Chapter 202: The Wolves don't have a hook, I don't believe it
[Player 12, please speak]
"Last night, 1 and 10 both died, and now the situation is completely clear, right? 1 is a prophet, 9 is a jumper. ”
"It seems that my intuition is quite accurate, 9 to 8 to lose the kill, just to fight for strength."
"It's a pity that this strength really made him fight, the No. 1 player of the police badge didn't get it, if 1 has a police badge in his hand, we have at least a ninety percent chance of winning this game."
"Of course, now it's also a good guy in a good situation, and there are also leads in the rounds, at least there are three gods on the field, and there are only two wolves left, and they are still in front."
Player 12 regrets that 1 didn't get the badge and thus play the badge stream, but even so, the advantage of the good guy is quite large at the moment, at least two rounds ahead.
This also means that good people have two rounds of fault tolerance.
And that's without taking into account the skills of soothsayers and hunters.
If the soothsayer can force a werewolf to take a knife himself, or if a hunter eats a knife to take a wolf, then the advantage is even greater.
"Yesterday, in addition to 9 and 10, there were 2, 4, and 7."
"If there are no accidents, the remaining two wolves will be in their midst."
"As for their comments and identity definitions, player 11 has already talked about them just now, and I basically agree."
"But as good people, I think we still can't take it lightly and let our guard down."
"From the point of view of logic and behavior, it is true that there are two wolves in 2, 4 and 7, but who can guarantee that the Wolves team did not sell their teammates to play the barb."
"Originally, I thought that the police would not open the wolf, but it turned out that 10 is a wolf, and it stands to reason that 10 is a wolf, and we should let 4 go, but his speech yesterday was too much like a charging wolf."
"Player 8 is a witch who kills the police and jumps down, he is not a witch, and no one jumps with 8 in the front position, but he doesn't want to believe in the identity of 8, and he has been crazy with the rhythm disc 9 is a prophet, 8 is a wolf and a witch."
"This kind of mentality, it's really impossible not to beat him as a wolf, as a good person, he can doubt the identity of 8, it's not that 8 jumps the witch, you have to believe him."
"But there must be a limit to doubt.4 Yesterday's statement was not a suspicion, but a total denial, and there was no point to believe that 8 meant that it was a witch, and that was a problem."
"So, player No. 6 may really be right, 4 or 10 double wolves are policed, and 9 is only 8 to be killed."
"But I always feel that something is wrong, 4 or 10 double wolves, there are only three people under the police, and the probability of opening two wolves is too low."
"And if 4 is a wolf, why wait for 10 Jumping Witches? He jumped straight with an 8 pair, which was much better than a 10 at the end. ”
"In this case, I think there are only two possibilities, either 4 is not a wolf, as a good person, he naturally will not jump witches, or 4 is a big bad wolf, it is inconvenient to jump witches."
"But then again, if 4 is the big bad wolf, he knows that he is already on the anti-push position, why didn't he use the skill earlier last night?"
"I didn't need it last night, I might have to be pushed up today, and the little wolf in the external position can't blow himself up to give him a chance to launch his skills, because when the little wolf explodes, the good people will definitely know that he is a wolf."
"So, I actually think that Pan 4 is a good guy who stands on the wrong side, but his bandit face is the biggest, so it's quite difficult."
Player number 12 knows that 4 has a big bandit, whether it is looking at the behavior or the speech.
But he didn't mean to beat 4 to death, in his opinion, 4 is either a good guy on the wrong side, or a big bad wolf, otherwise, it shouldn't be a 10 and 8 pair of jumping witches yesterday, this is not a wise choice, that is, 4 and 8 pairs of jumps are the most suitable.
But 4 didn't jump, there must be a reason, and the reason is the two situations he just mentioned.
This is also the only good face of 4, and the only evidence that he is not in the Wolves team.
But it's definitely not okay to rashly admit 4, a person who speaks and acts like a charging wolf, what if he is left on the field, and finally finds out that this guy is really a wolf?
"Player No. 7 is on the side of 9, helping 9 to instigate, and the police are 8 witches, he neither believes nor denies, but has a wait-and-see attitude."
"But in the end, he still hung the ticket on 1, and this is his banditry."
"I remember that he went to the police to open a wolf in the middle of 6 and 11, because 8 jumped witches reported that 11 was silver water, so he recognized 11 and hit 6 as a wolf."
"But the wolf pit he ordered contradicts his attitude towards 8."
"If he believes that player 8 is a witch, he can naturally choose 11 out of the wolf pit, but the problem is that he doesn't believe that 8 is a witch at all, but he still chooses 11 out of the wolf pit, which is wrong."
"I think the No. 7 player should be Dingwolf, he knows that 11 is indeed a knife, so he subconsciously doesn't want to play 11 anymore, but he didn't notice that there is an obvious problem with his logic."
"In his eyes, even player number 8 may not be a witch, how can he recognize 11?"
"Having said so much, I just want to play 7 is a wolf, or I will play player 7 first today, and get up 2 or 4pk tomorrow."
"If there are hunters or soothsayers in 2 and 4, that's the best."
"Okay, that's all I want to say about this round, although I'm Jinshui, I'm not here after all, it's not the last position, let's see how the witch returns to the last position, that's it, it's over."
[Player 2, please speak]
"If I stand on the wrong side, I will show water, and in terms of identity, I think I will not shoot today, after all, it is not my turn."
"Player No. 11 said that 4 would come out first, and if 4 couldn't figure out the identity, player No. 12 said that it was better to come out of 7 first, because 7 is a wolf."
"In this case, whether it's out of 4 or out of 7, my turn is tomorrow, then I can shoot my identity tomorrow, and I just need to show the water well today."
Player No. 2 doesn't plan to shoot his identity, and today it's either 4 out or 7 out, and he can't get out of him after all.
Although they are all on the wrong side, his identity is still higher than that of 4 and 7, which is an objective fact, otherwise, how could 11 and 12 focus on talking about 4 and 7 and put him down.
"Let me first tell you why I put the ticket on 1 yesterday."
"First of all, I was the number one player after I finished talking, and I was very unhappy with the definition of who I was."
"1 said that I am most likely a wolf, which makes me angry, if I am a wolf, why don't I go with 8 pairs of dancing witches?"
"Generally speaking, witches are all policemen, right, I must be more convincing than 10 witches under the police."
"And the 10-jump witch, once the identity is exposed, will be sold to the No. 4 player is a good person, the so-called 4, 10 double wolves, the possibility is too small."
"After I danced the witch, even if the good guy went to the police to find the wolf, he would also look for it in 4 and 10, so that player 10 would have a lot of room to maneuver."
"But I didn't have 8 pairs of jumping witches, which means that I'm not a wolf, or that I'm probably not a wolf."
"Besides, the No. 10 player Jumping Witch threw silver water at me, if we are 2 or 10 wolves, he doesn't need to throw silver water on the wolf teammates, he wanted to fool the good guy to rush the ticket to player 1."
"In this case, he threw silver water at me to canvass for votes, so I don't meet on 2 and 10, I hope good people can recognize this."
"Maybe this logic came out of my mouth, a little bit of quibble, but I'm really not forcing the logic to break the water, yesterday the Wolves needed to resist pushing the No. 1 player, and the anti-push 1 needed votes, in this case, 10 threw me silver water to canvass, it's normal."
"Some people may say, why 10 doesn't pull other people's votes, but wants to pull my votes, it's actually very simple, because my police tend to stand on the side of 9, and I have doubts about 8's witch identity."
"It's relatively easier to pull my ticket, but it's more difficult to pull someone else's ticket, and you may not be able to pull it at all."
"That's why player number 10 is going to throw me silver water to canvass."
It can be heard that player 2 is trying his best to get the good guys to recognize him.
According to him, if he and player 10 are wolf teammates, 10 will not throw silver water at him, and there will be no gain from doing so, but will make the wolf teammate the focus.
Therefore, 10 throwing silver water at him can only be canvassing, including why he is canvassing, but throwing silver water to other positions to canvass, 2 is very clear.
In this way, his good face becomes even bigger.
"The last point is that although I hit 1 on the police, I recognized player 12."
"In fact, the speech of the 12 police officers is not good, the reason is clear to everyone, and the reason why I can recognize 12 is that 1 threw gold to 12."
"If 1 and 12 are two wolves, I don't think player 1 will choose to throw gold water at 12, and no titanic wolf will do that."
"Originally, 12 didn't do a good job, and it was indeed a wolf, and he also threw gold water to his wolf teammates, isn't this pulling down his prophet's face?"
"As long as player No. 1 is not confused, he will not throw gold water on 12, but he just loses it, there are only two possibilities."
"Either he's really a prophet, or he's pulling the vote of player 12, after all, judging from 12's speech, 12 is hostile to 9, you can throw gold water at 12 and pull him into the water completely."
"This is the logic of the No. 9 player on my side, without the double wolves of disc 1 and 12, and it is also my normal perspective and mentality as a good person."
"I hope that after listening to my tirade, you will recognize me and stop teasing me as a wolf."
"Now the wolf pit I ordered is 3, 4, 7, on the surface, 4 and 7 are the largest, but just now player 12 also said that 4 may not be a wolf."
"So the question is, if 4 is really not a wolf, who is a wolf? Or who is that deep-water barbed wolf? Undoubtedly, it's Player 3. ”
"It's more far-fetched for him to stand on the side of the police, others are logical, he is against logic, others are east, he is west."
"This kind of person is either a self-righteous conspicuous bag, or a wolf, and wants to catch up with the barb, so first show his ass, and then find logic to prove that 1 is a prophet."
"I think player No. 3 is the latter, yesterday I felt like he was a wolf, and today I still think he is very big."
"I remember that the 1st and 12th police officers all thought that the police might not open the wolf, because the police badge of player 9 did not look like the police opened the wolf."
"But player No. 3 insisted on opening the wolf under the police, how could he not open the wolf? If we have normal logic, it is estimated that 3 will not know 4 and 10 under the police. ”
"If 3 is a wolf, then 4 or 10 are likely to be good people, after all, a wolf, how can he bring rhythm to tell him to go to the police to find his wolf teammates."
"On the contrary, if there is a wolf in 4 and 10, it means that player 3 is right, and his status will become very high."
"So, is it possible that 3 and 10 are two wolves identities with each other, so that no matter which of them is exposed, one of them will be recognized?"
"Maybe it's a bit of a malicious speculation about the meaning of player 3's speech, but I think 3 is like a wolf, if 4 and 7 are not double wolves, then they are 3 and 7 double wolves."
"But no matter how you play it, player 7 has to be a wolf after all, so let's get 7 out of it today."
"As for 5 and 6, how to say it, although the two of them voted right yesterday, they may not be good people, but in the current situation, they can't be judged for the time being."
"Okay, that's all I want to say about this round, the hole cards are good, out of the No. 7 player, that's it, it's over."
[Player 3, please speak]
"Player 2, I'm actually quite puzzled, you said that if you are a good person, why are you staring at me? I've already made it very clear why I'm on the side of player 1. ”
"As a result, you didn't listen at all, didn't you?"
"You said that you are a person who stands on the wrong side, and if you don't go to those people who are bigger than me to enter the wolf pit, you will suspect that I am a hook, and I have a grudge against you?"
"But this is also the reason why I don't want to beat you as a wolf, you said that you are a wolf, if you really want to find an anti-push position, there is no need to fight with me, and the external position is not impossible to fight."
"Your behavior makes me feel like a wolf is looking for a counter-push position, it's purely demonic, and I think I'm not a good person."
"So, I'm just ordering you to enter the wolf pit No. 2 player now, and I won't beat you to death."
"If you're a good person, I hope you don't focus too much on me, and don't lose yourself in self-confidence, always thinking I'm a barbed wolf."
Listening to the speech of player No. 3, Ren Fan frowned.
It's soft!
He felt that player 3 was too soft towards 2, and he should be stronger, even if he didn't kill 2, he had to press 2 to the ground and hammer it, showing his confidence to stand on the right side.
But player 3 actually told 2 that he is really a good person, who is this water for whom? I don't know, I thought it was 3 stations on the wrong side to give 2 meters of water.
Ren Fan knew that 3 wanted to fight 2's favor, so that 2 didn't keep staring at him, or it could be that 3 was afraid that 2 would shoot out his identity, and then lead the team to resist him, so he thought about repairing the relationship between the two, and not playing 2 was a wolf.
But such a mentality will inevitably arouse the suspicion of a good person in the outside position, and a person who is on the opposite side actually bows his head to the person who is on the wrong side, which is not normal.
At best, it can be said that player 3 is afraid of good people fighting each other, so he didn't go head-to-head with 2.
But if you think about it badly, 3 is cowardly, and I'm afraid that player 2 has an identity.
"Maybe there is more than one player on the field who suspects that I am standing on the side 1 and playing a barb, but the place where I do well is definitely not only on the side."
"I'm right about the definition of the police pattern, right? Is there a wolf under the police? ”
"If my hole card is a wolf, in the case that 1 and 12 think that the police may not open the wolf, I can't open the wolf with the rhythm of the police, isn't this a clear betrayal of teammates?"
"Player No. 2 said that I stepped on each other to make identities, so that no matter whose identity is exposed, there will always be someone between me and him who will be recognized."
"At first glance, this logic seems to make sense, but isn't this still malicious speculation?"
"I'm on the right side, maliciously guessing that I'm a barb wolf, I'm on the right wolf pit, maliciously guessing that I'm stepping on a wolf teammate as an identity, why do you have to push me into the wolf pit?"
"Only people who are bent on beating me like a wolf will try to misinterpret my speech and behavior to make me sound like a wolf."
"Speaking of which, I just want to ask player No. 2 a word, you said that I don't stand on the side of player No. 1 with correct logic, and I have to fight against logic, so don't you think you also insist on playing against logic?"
"But if you are logical, how can you think that I can be a wolf."
"According to what you said, the reverse logic is a wolf, and the mentality is wrong, so are you a wolf?"
Player 3 has a very good conversation in this paragraph, attacking your shield with your spear, so that no matter what 2 says, he has a problem.
In fact, player No. 2 is a typical double standard, others are against logic, he thinks it's a wolf, but he plays 3 by himself, the whole process is against logic, if you don't be picked off, it's just that, it's still embarrassing to be put on the table.
Although this game of 3 hole cards is indeed a wolf, 2 played right, but this is purely a blind cat touching a dead mouse, not really logical, only to find out that 3 is a wolf.
"Whoever comes out today, see how the No. 8 player returns to the ticket at the end."
"It's either 4 out or 7 out."
"For player No. 4, there is a logic in the 12 games just now, saying that if he is a wolf, it is not the turn of 10 to jump witches at the end, and from the perspective of position, it must be the most suitable for 4 jumps."
"But the No. 4 player did not jump the witch, there are only two possibilities, one is that the 4 hole cards are not wolves, and naturally they will not jump witches, and the other is that the 4 hole cards are big bad wolves, which is inconvenient to jump."
"But I didn't see the big bad wolf's knife yesterday, so I ruled out the possibility that 4 is the big bad wolf, I can't say that 12 is wrong, but as a good person, I must say that 12's logic is flawed."
"The big bad wolf didn't activate the skill last night, how can player 12 be so sure? What if he had already activated the skill and just happened to have a heavy knife with the little wolf? ”
"For example, the big bad wolf thinks that the little wolf will give priority to the knife witch, and the next day he gets up and then takes 1 is a fierce jump, so there is a high probability that 1 will not eat the wolf knife, so he will go to the knife 1."
"As a result, the little wolf gave priority to the swordsman, which led to the heavy knife by mistake, and this possibility is not non-existent."
"So, if there were no three deaths last night, it doesn't mean that the big bad wolf didn't go under the knife."
"In fact, the biggest gangster on the field now is the No. 4 player, and his speech yesterday was very problematic, and his mentality is that he can't afford to be a good guy."
"That's the fundamental reason why I think the six sets, four and 10 wolves make sense."
"Wait a minute to see how player No. 4 shows the water, if you can shoot the best identity, I said that the big bad wolf's knife may be heavier than the little wolf, and it's not for the sake of playing 4 is the big bad wolf, after all, even I don't know if I'm right."
"Okay, that's all I want to say in this round, good hole cards, don't suspect me anymore that I'm a barb, I feel very tired when I hear it."
[Player 4, please speak]
"Okay, the whole audience is waiting for me to surface water, and I don't know if my surface water can be recognized by you, so I can only say as much as possible."
"Yesterday I was always on the side of player 9, and the reason I have made it clear is that 9's behavior does not conform to the logic of a normal Jumping Wolf."
"Even now I can't figure it out, 10 hole cards are wolves, why should 9 give 8 to lose check and kill, he only needs to throw gold water to 8, almost firmly hold the police badge, but he just doesn't play cards according to the routine."
"Maybe that's the effect he wants, a good guy who specializes in fooling me with this kind of thought."
"After all, yesterday I was a ghost, and I thought that 9 was a prophet, and I didn't even pay attention to the 8-jumping witch, I thought 8 was a wolf and a witch."
"Especially in the last 10 players and 8 pairs of jumping witches, I felt that I had a good conversation, so I hung the ticket on 1."
Player 4 talked about the reason why he was on the wrong side yesterday and his mental journey.
To put it bluntly, he was imprisoned by his own thoughts, or he subconsciously felt that player 8 was a wolf, in this case, 8 jump witch, he would naturally subconsciously think that 8 was a fierce jump.
This is also a mistake that good people often make, do not hit the south wall and do not look back, and lose their self-confidence, they feel that their logic is correct, but in fact they are outrageously wrong.
"There are only three people in this bureau, and if I and player 10 are both wolves, there is no need for 9 to give 8 a kill."
"As long as he loses a golden water, I and player No. 10 will give him a ticket, 9 will give 8 a loss, from my current perspective, he should want to pull my ticket, and at the same time strive to be a high prophet."
"9 threw the kill on 8, if I want to stand on the side of the prophet in the back position, I have to recognize 8, but without listening to the speech, I can't go up to the chase to recognize 8 as a good person."
"In this way, my vote is bound to go to player 9, and his purpose of canvassing in disguise has been achieved."
"The most important thing is that his prophet will be very big compared to throwing gold water to 8, and I'm not just because I'm here to stand on his side."
"Having said this, I just want to tell the good people that if the police are our 4 or 10 double wolves, 9 don't have to give 8 to lose and kill, the benefit is not big, but the risk is very great."
"Only when the police only open 10 wolves, he will take the risk of killing the No. 8 player, and at the same time pull my ticket, he can also fight hard."
"Player 12 also said in the front position just now, if I am a wolf, I have so much hostility to 8, why don't I jump witch directly with him, and wait for 10 to jump witch in the last position?"
"Because I was a good guy with my hole cards, I didn't jump with 8 pairs, I just used my speech to hit him not a witch, and it turned out that I played it wrong, but I really wasn't a wolf."
"As for the fact that I am a big bad wolf, it is inconvenient to jump with the witch, so I can only let my wolf teammates jump in the back position, this statement is too far-fetched."
"How many big bad wolves will honestly stay under the police and not be police? Take 10,000 steps back, even if I'm a big bad wolf, why can't I dance a witch? I'm just going to activate the skill on the night after the jump, what's there to be afraid of? ”
"The No. 3 player in the front position also said that I may have a heavy knife with the little wolf, in fact, my wolf knife has been used, the possibility you said definitely exists, I don't deny it."
"But it won't happen to me, why should I cut Player 1, I am bent on coiling him like a wolf, stabbing him at night, wouldn't I push myself into the fire pit?"
"From the perspective of human nature, this is not logical, since I want to fight with the No. 1 player, I will be tough with him to the end, 8 or 10 times in the evening, I will go to the outside position to run the fortune teller or hunter knife how good."
"Good man, please believe me, I must not be the big bad wolf, if I am the big bad wolf, I will definitely die three times, because I will never cut the No. 1 player."
"Since there were no three deaths last night, it means that I am a good person, a good person who is obsessed with ghosts."
"Now the wolf pit I ordered is 3, 6, 7, you all suspect that there is a deep water barb wolf on the field, and I am the same, and I think one of the 3 and 6 must be a hook."
"Player 2 I think is a good person, from his statements on the police, from the 10 Jumping Witch throwing gold water at him, from his definition of player 3, 2 doesn't look like a wolf."
"I feel like he's been crippled by a wolf like me."
"The current situation should be 3 or 6 out of a hook, 7 is a wolf, and then player 5 is likely to be a good person."
"I think 6 should be filming his identity, didn't we define his identity yesterday as a wolf and a god? He dared that in that case, 7 was a good person, and he couldn't do it with a people, so he had to have an identity to have the confidence to say that 7 was a good person. ”
"And judging from the conversations and interactions in yesterday's 6 and 7, I think they kind of seem to know each other."
"Okay, that's all I have for the surface water, it may not be particularly good, so you can recognize it, but I also tried my best, and my vote will be on player 7 today, so be it, it's over."
[Player 5, please speak]
"Well, I think the conversation between player 4 and 6 is to the point, I said yesterday, 6 is not a wolf and a god, you don't need to shoot your identity on the first day, but you can't stop shooting on the second day."
"Fortune teller, hunter, these two cards are not afraid of jumping against each other now, nor are they afraid of eating knives."
"Hunters eat knives and can shoot soothsayers, so the soothsayer skills shouldn't be useful, right? It's just right to jump out, and at night it's a sign that is placed outside, and you won't eat a knife. ”
"If player 6 is still hiding and unwilling to shoot his identity, or find some high-sounding reasons not to shoot his identity, such as not your turn, etc., then I think you 6 is a barb wolf."
"Yesterday, I brought 4 and 10 double wolves with rhythm plates, and at the same time, I wanted to sell my teammates, and at the same time, I made player 4 into an anti-push position."
"If player 6 is really a hunter or a fortune teller, then 3 and 7 may be double wolves, I heard that player 4's surface water is okay, 2 and 10 obviously don't seem to be colateral."
Player No. 5 had a lot of hostility towards Ren Fan yesterday, but the police said that Ren Fan did not play cards according to the routine and did not play with 7, which led to him not being able to open a wolf in 6 and 7, so he could only discing Ren Fan as a wolf and god, and then ran to point 7 into the wolf pit.
Yesterday was the turn of the prophet, and he had no reason to ask Ren Fan to shoot his identity, but today he felt that Ren Fan had to shoot his identity.
Because neither the hunter nor the soothsayer are afraid of jumping against each other now, nor are they afraid of eating knives.
In that case, what else is there to be for? Shoot the identity directly to drain the pit, lest the good people always feel that there is a hook in the 3 and 6.
As long as Ren Fan can take an identity card out, and the good guy looks for a barb, he can only find player 3, at least from his 5 perspective.
"I don't think player 3 is very good in this round of speeches, 2 a person who stands on the wrong side and votes on the wrong side keeps thinking that he may be a wolf and a barb, but he also said that 2 may not be a wolf, this mentality is not a wolf, but I think it is a bandit."
"If I'm the No. 3 player, I'm a person who stands on the sideline and logic from beginning to end, and the No. 2 player dares to suspect that I'm a hook, I can hit him all over the ground to find teeth, and directly treat 2 as a wolf."
"Even if 2 is a good person, if you dare to point him, you have to honestly go into the wolf pit without any tolerance."
"But what about player 3, although he also ordered 2, his attitude is too soft, and he doesn't have the momentum and unquestionable feeling of a good guy standing on the opposite side."
"I feel that he may be afraid that player 2 will have an identity, and if he beats 2 too hard, he will get up tomorrow and 2 will be embarrassed to jump a hunter."
"He wanted to ease his relationship with player 2 and make 2 not so hostile to him, so he said that 2 might be a good person."
"In short, I can't let go of player No. 3, although he is on the right side, although he has a wolf under the police, but just like 2 said, maybe he is just talking about it to make an identity for himself."
"Everyone heard the surface water of player 4 just now, and I don't think he should be a charge wolf."
"If he's a charge wolf and is so hostile to player 8, he should go directly to 8 pairs of jumping witches, instead of just saying that 8 is not a witch."
"12 also talked about the two possibilities of 4 not jumping witches, and I thought it made sense at first, until 4 said that if he was a big bad wolf, he would never knife player 1, which is from the perspective of human nature."
"I can only say that I believe what 4 said, he is a big bad wolf and will not go to the knife No. 1 player, he wants to keep 1 more, and get up during the day with rhythm to resist pushing 1."
"Therefore, the possibility of player No. 3 getting the big wolf and the big bad wolf is almost zero."
"In this way, 4 can't be the big bad wolf, and 4 can't be the big bad wolf, he can only be a good guy on the wrong side."
"Pick 4 out, 2 and 10 can't be made into wolf teammates, isn't that 3, 6, and 7 two wolves?"
"Player 7 won't say much, 3 and 6 hooks, which is also in line with our judgment of the situation on the field, Wolves didn't all charge, there were still hooks."
"Okay, that's all I want to say about this round, the hole cards are good, out of the No. 7 player, 6 beats of identity, that's it, it's over."
(End of chapter)