Chapter 230: This logical perspective is too tricky
[Player 2, please speak]
"Whether player No. 12 is a guard or not, it depends on whether someone jumps with him in the back position, if there is, then 12 should be a wolf, if not, you can only believe that he is a guard."
"At least the information he reported is right, 1 said that he poisoned player 8 last night, but only 8 died today, so maybe the knife edge is on player 1."
"Otherwise, where is the knife edge? The wolf is empty? Or is player 8 the same knife and poison? Obviously it's unlikely. ”
"It can only be player 1 who eats knives, player 8 who eats poison, and 1 who is shielded, so judging from last night's death information, 12 said that it was more reliable to keep 1 last night."
Player 2 is full of doubts about 12 as a guard, but no matter how suspicious he is, as long as no one jumps with him, he has to believe that he is a guard.
Otherwise, who are the guards?
What's more, the guardian information of the 12th newspaper is no problem, 8 ate poison and died alone last night, which shows that the knife is most likely blocked by the shield.
Who was most likely to eat a knife last night? Undoubtedly player 1, 12 as a guard, defending 1 is completely reasonable.
The reason why he is not self-defending is also very good, saying that he is in the anti-push position, and the wolf will not easily stab him, so he can be used as an anti-push.
There is nothing wrong with this, whether he is a guard or a witch, the wolf can resist him with rhythm.
The wolf can jump with him, or he can jump with the witch, as long as the witch's poison is used up, the wolf has nothing to worry about.
Therefore, even if the No. 12 player really has an identity, the wolf will not stab him, there is no need, just beat him into a wolf with rhythm and use it as an anti-push.
In this case, why is the No. 12 player defending himself, it is better to go to the external position.
"Now I temporarily believe that 12 is a guard, although his speech and behavior yesterday are very similar to a wolf, but after all, he jumped the guard, and no one has filmed him until now, I definitely can't be sure that he is a wolf jumping guard, right."
"As for the witch of Player 1, I'm sure I can recognize it, so I won't say much about this."
"Player No. 8 eats poison, if there is no accident, 8 should be a wolf, 8, 9, 10 three wolves, it is estimated that there is only one wolf left on the field."
"This wolf could be player 5, but it could also be one of 3 or 11."
"5 Why is it a wolf, we have already talked very clearly yesterday, and he is maliciously speculating about the motive of 6 to 7 to throw gold water with rhythm, and the gangster is very big."
"Although his speech and speculation are not completely unreasonable, if the 6 hole cards are wolves, it is indeed possible to throw gold water to the police to canvass for votes and grab the police badge, but unfortunately 6 This game is a prophet, 5 sets wrong."
"Oh no, it's wrong to say that 5 games are wrong, at best, at worst, he is maliciously speculating with rhythm, fooling the good guy plate 6 is a wolf."
"In fact, logically, player No. 5 may be a good person or a wolf, but now the wolf pit is very crowded, so I can only point to him as a wolf."
"If you don't point to him as a wolf, you can only play 3 and 11 double wolves, but plate 3 and 11 double wolves are a bit outrageous, and I don't want to beat 3 and 11 wolves at the same time in order not to point 5 is a wolf."
"Now I can only say that player 5 is a wolf, and a deep water wolf is opened in 3 and 11."
"Of course, if player 12 is a guard, if 12 is not a guard, that's another story."
"As for who is the wolf in 3 and 11, if it was before, I would not hesitate to choose point 11, but after listening to the post of player 3, I think 3 has a bandit face, because he will actually vote out 4, saying that 4 is a wolf who is desperate and wants to resist player 10 chasing rounds."
"This statement is seriously deformed, you know, the police are the first to stand on the side of the No. 6 player, can stand on the right side in such a complicated situation, how can it not even be clear who is the hunter 4 or 10."
"I don't think player No. 3 may be confused, he is deliberately pretending to be confused and doesn't want to sell his teammates."
"Wait a minute, let's listen to what 3 says, anyway, I don't dare to recognize him as a good person anymore."
"Today is the round of 5 and 12, if someone jumps with player 12, then 12 will come out, and if no one jumps with 12 pairs of jump guards, then player 5 will come out."
"Now our round is definitely ahead, 9, 10 two wolves out, 6, 7 two good guys, 8 player poison is likely to be a wolf, as long as 7 is not a guard, this game will win."
"Okay, that's all I want to say about this round, the hole cards are good, the tickets are issued in 5 and 12, so be it, it's over."
[Player 3, please speak]
"I'm a witch, player 1 is a wolf, Yinshui is indeed player 4, I poisoned player 8 last night, the knife edge is definitely impossible on 1, as far as the current situation is concerned, 8 is estimated to be the same knife and poison."
Player 3 got up and followed 1 pair of jumping witches, and this time it was lively.
1 and 3 are the only two people on the opposite side of the police, both of them were recognized before, but after yesterday's speech, 3 has a bandit face, but 1 is still as good as ever.
In this case, 1 and 3 pairs of jumping witches, the good guys basically believe in player 1, after all, the good face of 1 is bigger than 3.
Just like player 2 said, police 3 can recognize 6 as a prophet when 4 or 5 stand on the wrong side, why can't you tell who is the hunter in 4 and 10?
There must be a demon when things go wrong, and player 3 can be confused on such a simple issue, I'm afraid there is only one reason, he wants to resist the hunter with rhythm.
It is estimated that it is reluctant to sell teammates directly, and it is better to be able to push the hunter out of the game first than to let the wolf teammates be directly pushed out of the game.
"To be honest, I never thought he was a wolf before Player 1 danced the witch, and I didn't hear any wolf smell of him whether he was standing on the side or speaking logically."
"But he's wearing my clothes, so it can't be a knife block, right? I don't think any good person would casually wear a witch's clothes in such a situation, isn't that death? ”
"Player 1 jumps witch, it must be a wolf jump."
"1, 12 is not common, since player 1 is a wolf, then 12 this guard can be recognized, he said that the number 1 player who guarded last night, and today it is 8 single death, which shows that 8 is the same knife and poison."
"8 is a good person, there must be two wolves on the field, player 1 is one, and one is estimated to be player 5."
"11 can't be dialed for the time being, although it is not ruled out that he is a wolf, but at this time I can only order player No. 5 to enter the wolf pit."
"I know it's hard to get you to believe I'm a witch, and it's hard to push player 1, but as long as the good guys still want to win, they have to believe that I'm a witch."
"Yesterday 4 and 10 pairs of jumping hunters, why I don't want to plate 4 is a hunter, and I also suggested that he have a positive perspective, isn't it because I think the idea of 4 is not in line with normal good people."
"Player 10 picks up and kills the jumping hunter, he must be a wolf, and 10 is under the police, the possibility of 9 and 10 being made into a double wolf is very small, if it were me, I wouldn't play 9 or 10 double wolves."
"Since 9 and 10 are unlikely to be double wolves, why don't I, as a hunter, jump out and have a positive perspective? Even if you want to play 9 or 10 wolves to kill wolves and play boards, you can't watch player 9 being pushed out of the game. ”
"As a result, player No. 4 can do this kind of thing, and I really convinced him, but at that time, I thought that 4 was a wolf who wanted to resist the hunter."
"Because I'm stuck in a strange circle, that is, the hunter won't jump out and shoot player 10, but player 4 doesn't follow the usual path."
"I know that player number 4 must be particularly hostile to me, and I guess he will not hesitate to believe that 1 is a witch and I am a wolf."
"This is also what I am most worried about, if the hunter thinks so, this game will most likely go far."
"But I actually still have a little fantasy about player 4, he can even get the 9 or 10 wolves to kill the wolf and play the board, so he should be able to tell who is the witch between me and player 1, right? If you can't tell the difference, there's no way to do it. ”
"I was going to show yesterday that Player 4 has a bad face in your perspective, I know that, but I don't think it's my problem, or it's not just my problem."
"Now it's all up to player 4 to win or lose, if he can recognize me as a witch, he will win this game, if he can't recognize me, he will definitely lose."
"Today, my vote will definitely be on Player 1, so be it, it's over."
[Player 4, please speak]
"1 and 3 pairs of jumping witches, it stands to reason that I should have rubbed 3 the ground and beat him as a wolf, but logic tells me that he should be a witch."
"Police, he was the first player to stand on the side of the 6 player, I remember very clearly, he was a bit of a competitor with 5."
"At that time, player No. 5 was standing on the side of 9, and mentioned a detail of the speech, that is, player No. 9 said that he would try his best to check and kill, so as not to find out that the good people of Jinshui were suspicious."
"This makes 5 feel that 9 doesn't look like a jumping wolf, and 3 is-for-tat with 5, saying that player 6 also mentioned a speech detail problem, that is, player 2 is rushing to check and kill."
"Other boards, 7 is gold water, 10 is reverse gold, 2 doesn't need to be tested at all, and the wolf is directly beaten, but in order to prevent himself from testing the wolf brother, 6 deliberately rushed to the wolf to test."
"3 thinks that the Jumping Wolf will not talk like this, which is also the details of the speech."
"After I heard the post of player 3 like this, I recognized him, even if he was different from my side, I didn't think about hitting him as a wolf."
"At that time, I thought he was a good person who thought he was smart, and he always felt that everyone else was on the wrong side, so he was on the right side."
"Yesterday I jumped hunter, and he was able to trick me into a desperate wolf and come up with me to test the gun."
"As soon as such a statement came out, it was indeed a bit against the sky, but I really don't think he was a wolf, because the wolf didn't have such a rebellious speech."
"Like player No. 1, he thinks I'm a hunter, and hitting 10 is a wolf, which is in line with the logic of wolf behavior."
When Ren Fan talked like this, everyone could hear that he wanted to recognize Player 3 as a witch.
To this end, he also specially counted two logical points.
One is that the speech of player 3 on the side of 6 is very detailed, and he talks about the key point of 6 becoming a prophet, which doesn't feel like a wolf is playing a barb.
The second is that if player No. 3 is a wolf, he doesn't dare to vote against him, after all, from the perspective of the wolf, he is a real hunter, how dare the wolf touch the hunter's tiger whiskers, they are all coaxing to please, for fear of pointing the gun at themselves.
Just because the No. 3 player dares to vote him, Ren Fan feels that 3 can't afford to hold the wolf card, and some people may say that 3 is playing with the hunter against the mentality, but it's not necessary.
3's identity is so good, as long as he speaks normally, it can be said that no one can discern him, in this case, his brain is in water, and he will be a wolf and a hunter.
Therefore, even if player 3 does not speak and act well, and the logic is very stretched, he does not want to play 3 is a wolf.
"In addition to the two logics I just obtained, there is another point that can prove that player No. 3 is not a wolf."
"1, 12 in the front position of a jumping guard, a jumping witch, if the 3 hole cards are wolves, why does he jump witches?"
"If you want to jump, you are also a fierce jump guard, and the difficulty of resisting the push of player 1 is obviously very different from the difficulty of resisting the push of player 12."
"Player 1 and Player 2 both said that if someone jumps the guard in the back position, they will push 12 out of the game, so 3 just needs to jump the guard."
"He doesn't jump to guard against player 12, but to jump against player 1 against the witch, which is completely inconsistent with the logic and benefits of the wolf's behavior."
"In other words, player No. 3 can't do such a thing as a wolf, he won't be able to jump witches, and he must be jumping guards to gain the most."
"Do you think that's the truth?"
Ren Fan's words were really like an enlightenment, and when he heard it, the eyes of good people were shining, and they all felt that it was indeed such a reason.
If you just listen to the speeches of 1 and 3, it is really difficult to say which of them is a wolf and who is a witch, but judging from the attitude of 1 and 3 towards Ren Fan yesterday, it is obvious that player 1 behaves better.
But from a global point of view, player No. 3, as a wolf, should not jump witches, but should jump guards, which is an operation that is in line with the benefits of the wolf team.
How can any wolf be stupid enough to choose a hellish difficulty jump and give up the easy one?
1 and 2 are in the front position to make it very clear, as long as someone jumps the guard in the back position, the 12th player will be pushed out of the game, so there is no reason why 3 does not jump the guard.
Unless he has a sick brain, he is willing to challenge difficult things, and he likes to play cards not according to the routine, but this is not suitable.
After Ren Fan's speech, the idea of a good person has completely changed.
Originally, 1 and 3 pairs of jumping witches, the vast majority of good people tend to favor player 1 as a witch and 3 as a jumper.
But after listening to Ren Fan's logic, they felt that they were still thinking too simply.
On the one hand, as a wolf, player No. 3 really has no reason to scare the hunter, his status is so high, there is no need to make trouble for himself.
On the other hand, player 3, as a wolf, does not need to fight 1 pair of jumping witches, but only needs to fight 12 pairs of jumping guards, and the guards are pushed out of the game, and the witch is stabbed at night, and then the hunter is stabbed to win.
In fact, normal wolves should jump like this, as long as they can resist player 12 out of the game, they will win, and grab the witch's clothes with player 1 to wear, isn't this a neurosis.
"Player 1 is supposed to be a wolf and a witch, although that's a bit of a thing, but that's the truth."
"Whether it is from the details of the speech or from the logic of behavior, the No. 3 player can't afford to take the wolf card."
"Player No. 1 has always been on the right side, and yesterday he recognized me as a hunter, and his speech moved me very much, but moved to move, that is not love after all, and he and I are not people of the same world after all."
"So, I'm sorry Player 1, I'm a hunter today and I'm going to have a ticket."
"As for whether player 12 is a guard, there is a big question mark, not to mention that there may be someone in the back position with 12 pairs of jumping guards, even if no one jumps with him, it doesn't mean that he is a guard."
"Player 7 and Player 8 who knows what card went, maybe the guard opened between the two of them."
"Originally, the No. 12 player was in the anti-push position, but he jumped on guard, which really made people mutter."
"Let's listen again, I actually don't recognize the guard 12, after all, I used to mark him as a wolf."
"Look at the speeches of players 5 and 11 in the back, if someone jumps on 5 and 11, it's simple, and if no one jumps the guard, you have to think about it, 12 This guard believes it or not."
"If I don't think 5 or 11 have a lot of conversation, I will lead the team to play player No. 12 tomorrow, this thing can't be done by others, only I can do it."
"Player 5, it's better for me to listen to you on the police, even if you ordered me into the wolf pit yesterday, I don't think you look like a wolf."
"But now that I don't play, you have to play, no way, the wolf pit is too crowded, and player 12 still jumps a guard, it's hard to do it, why don't you jump with 12 pairs?"
"If you jump guard with him, it's simple, 1 or 3 out of a wolf, 5 and 12 out of a wolf, and the outside positions are all good people."
"As for player 8, I don't think he is a wolf, think for yourself, if 8 is a wolf, there will only be one wolf left on the field, in this case, will player 1 rush to the witch? Or does he need to risk the witch? ”
"Only when there are two wolves on the field will the wolf beat the witch."
"So, player No. 8 must be a good guy, either 1 and 5 are double wolves, or 1 and 12 are double wolves, but judging from the speeches, the possibility of 1 and 12 becoming wolf teammates is very small."
"Because player 12 is a 1 on the police, and the hostility between the police 1 to 12 is also very large, so the two of them are not very good at making double wolves."
"And that's one of the big reasons why I'm starting to doubt the identity of player 5, otherwise, I'd still be leaning like 5 is a good person."
"Okay, that's all I want to say about this round, no matter what, let's fight Player 1 out of the game today, and I'll lead the team as a hunter, so be it, it's over."
[Player 5, please speak]
"I've been thinking about how I should surface water so that good people can recognize me, and after thinking about it for a long time, it seems that there is no good way."
"Regarding the statement that the No. 6 player of my police officer gave the police 7 gold water to the police is canvassing for votes and grabbing the police badge, I have explained it very clearly before."
"I'm not maliciously speculating, okay, I was standing on the side of player 9, I must think about it, player 6, as a wolf, why did he throw gold water to the policeman's 7, does he want to give 7 an identity, or does he want to pull 7's ticket to grab the police badge."
"Although I am on the wrong side, my mentality is definitely in line with the good people, not what you think."
"Actually, I also know that there are positive and negative sides to logic, and if I talk about this, you will still think that I am quibbling and making excuses for my actions."
"If player 12 is really a guard, I don't think I need to be a surface water, just treat me as a fault tolerance anti-game."
"I'm afraid that player 12 is not a guard, and the real guard is in 7 and 8."
"Originally, I thought that player 8 might be a wolf who ate poison and left, and the guard was hit by the knife last night, but after listening to player 4's speech, I think he made a lot of sense, if there is only one wolf left on the field, the wolf will not beat the witch."
"Since the wolf dares to beat the witch, it means that there are two wolves on the field."
Player 5 agrees with Ren Fan's logic and ideas very much, and Player 8 is probably not a wolf.
If 8 is a wolf and there is only one wolf left on the field, it is impossible for the wolf to beat the witch.
It doesn't matter if 1 is a wolf or 3 is a wolf.
In this situation, whether a good guy has a fault tolerance rate or not depends entirely on whether 12 is a guard or not, and if he is a guard, a good guy has a fault tolerance rate.
After all, guards can guard people, but if 12 is not a guard, good people don't have any margin for error.
If you make one mistake, you lose.
1 and 3 pairs of jumping witches, Ren Fan believed that player 3 was a witch, which was indeed quite unexpected, but after listening to Ren Fan's logic, he felt that what he said made a lot of sense.
It is an irrefutable fact that player 3 did not speak and act well, but his actions are not in line with the benefits of the Wolves team.
In this way, there is no way to play player 3 as a wolf, but only to play him as a good person, a good person who is sometimes sober and sometimes confused.
"Actually, I want to play 1 and 11 wolves now, because after listening to the speech of player 4, I also feel that 3 is not very good at holding the wolf card."
"His actions are not in line with the Wolves' interests, whether it is the ticket out of player 4 or the witch jumping with player 1."
"Player No. 3 is a witch, 1 is a wolf, if I'm not mistaken, player No. 12 played 1, which means that 1 and 12 are likely not to meet."
"At this time, there is no need to suspect that the 1st and 12th wolves step on the wolf and pull the opposite side to do the identity, although there is a logical possibility, but if we want to win at this time, we can only believe that the 12th player is the guard."
"What if not? If player number 12 is a wolf, can I PK him? It's obviously pk, but it's pk. ”
"I simply believe that he is a guard, disc 1, 11 double wolves, and in the current situation, this possibility is also the greatest."
"Okay, that's all I want to say in this round, the hole cards are good, the civilians are one, I believe in the logic of player No. 4, player No. 1 will be released today, so be it, it's over."
(End of chapter)