Chapter 134: Several Key Nodes
Some people will ask, why not put the R&D center in Huaguo and Ameriken at the same time?
In the future, ASML's R&D centers will be located all over the world, with R&D centers in Shenhai, Wanwan, Europe and Ameriken.
This is because the Xinxin lithography machine is in its infancy, and after the experimental model in the initial stage comes out, it needs to conduct a lot of testing, communication and verification with the manufacturer to iteratively optimize the experimental model, and launch a machine that can be involved in the formal production process as soon as possible.
At this stage, it is necessary to concentrate all R&D efforts and invest in solving the problem of the company's survival.
In the future, after achieving breakeven or close to breakeven, we will consider the next step and set up an overseas R&D center.
"Also, what do you think of the semiconductor deal between Americon and Neon since 1986?" Zhou Xin's words changed.
Guan Jianying understood what Zhou Xin meant: "From 986, the two sides signed a five-year semiconductor agreement, requiring Neon to limit the export share of semiconductor products to Ameriken, and at the same time increase imports of Ameriken semiconductors.
It is clearly stated that the share of foreign semiconductor products in the neon market is at least 20%.
In addition to this, Ameriken also interfered in Neon's internal industrial policies, and in order to promote the sales of Americ Ken Semiconductor products in the neon market, Neon agreed to take steps to increase market transparency and simplify the procurement process so that Americacan suppliers can more easily enter the neon market.
What's more, the neon government encourages neon semiconductor companies and Ameriken Semiconductor companies to carry out technical cooperation and exchanges.
Neon Semiconductor's market share from the leader in the 80s to the current market share is squeezed by Wanwan and Gaoli, and the most fundamental reason is that this series of self-binding strategies make it impossible for them to carry out. ”
Later, the suppression that China faced, as early as the end of the 80s of the 20th century, neon was subjected to all over again
Later, there are many high-sounding explanations for why Goryeo and Wanwan achieved corner overtaking in the semiconductor field:
Global competition has intensified, and the semiconductor industry of Americacan, Koryeo, and Wanwan has developed rapidly, which has formed a huge competitive pressure on Neon.
Americon has made significant progress in process technology, product innovation, and intellectual property protection, while Korea and Wanwan have rapidly expanded their market share through low-cost production and government support.
During this period, semiconductor technology underwent a major transformation, with memory technology shifting from DRAM to higher-performance SRAM and flash memory. Neon's competitiveness in these emerging markets is gradually weakening, and it is unable to keep up with the changes and needs of the market.
Some Neon Semiconductor companies have problems with management and strategy, such as over-reliance on specific product lines, lack of diversification, and blind pursuit of scale. These issues limit Neon Semiconductor's ability to grow and respond to market changes.
In the early 90s, the neon economic bubble burst, leading to a domestic recession. This has had a serious negative impact on Neon's semiconductor industry, leading to reduced capital expenditures, overcapacity, and declining corporate efficiency.
These are all reasons on the surface, and countless reasons can be found on the surface, but the fundamental reason behind it is that Ameriken cannot accept that semiconductor companies are not in their hands, and most of Neon's semiconductor companies are in the hands of Neon's local capital.
Wall Street capital participation is too low.
However, Goryeo and Wanwan are different, their semiconductor industry has absorbed a large amount of Ameriken capital in the development stage, and Americacan's technology and capital have made a lot of contributions to the development of semiconductors in these two regions.
To put it bluntly, Ameriken paid for technology, Neon and Koryo for land and engineers.
In the 80s, Neon Semiconductors only relied on Ameriken for technology, and the degree of dependence was not high.
Zhou Xin saw that Guan Jianying understood what he meant, and then said: "That's right, Ameriken still can't accept neon as his ally, there are advanced semiconductor companies.
How can Ameriken accept Huaguo to develop its own semiconductor company?
We make lithography machines, and when we are behind the process, we are okay, and we are willing to give money to TSMC or Samsung Electronics, and they will help us test the effect of the experimental machine.
But when we catch up with the current international advanced manufacturing process, what will they do to stop our R&D progress is a completely uncontrollable risk. ”
The competition in semiconductors is no less brutal than the Internet, or even more so.
Because semiconductors are in a sense a much more cruel zero-sum game than the Internet, there is a pool of chip demand, and if you produce one more chip, it means that I will have to sell one less chip.
In the Internet industry, everyone is competing for user time, and if you make a good enough product to expand the increment of user time, then you can get the user increment time, which will not affect the time when my application occupies the user stock.
In the first decade of the twenty-first century, users spent about three hours on average on the Internet, and in the second decade of the twenty-first century, the average user spent more than eight hours on the Internet.
This extra time is the increment brought by the mobile Internet.
As a result, TSMC has used various legal proceedings to hinder SMIC's development, from SMIC's infringement of patents on a number of semiconductor manufacturing technologies to SMIC's poaching of its employees to obtain its trade secrets.
Later, in 2009, Zhang Rujing resigned from SMIC, ostensibly because of personal reasons, but in fact, TSMC asked Zhang Rujing to resign, and they were willing to reach a settlement agreement.
Why is TSMC suing SMIC, because the better SMIC develops, the more market share TSMC will be eaten up.
As for whether SMIC has used TSMC's technology, it should be, in the early days, between the establishment of SMIC in 2000 and 2002, SMIC poached more than 100 engineers from TSMC.
Around June 2002, TSMC approached Ameriken, an analog IC design company that placed orders from SMIC and TSMC at the same time, and implanted latent graphics on the masks made by TSMC's IP platform.
By November 2003, TSMC obtained the chips sold to this company by SMIC, and found TSMC's special hidden patterns through electron microscope reverse peeling method and reduction engineering.
Why does SMIC want to use TSMC's technology, it can't be through the purchase of patent licensing, to put it bluntly, there is still no money.
As a latecomer in the field of chip foundry, SMIC needs to rely on low-cost orders to gain the market.
Rushing to buy orders at a low price determines that they don't have much room for profit, and they don't have too much money to buy patents from official channels.
The first round was only 630 million US dollars, and a total of 7 chip processing factories were built, and there was no money to buy patents.
Moreover, TSMC acquired Shida Semiconductor at a high price of $5 billion, to put it bluntly, hoping to monopolize this market as much as possible, and then raise the price to obtain excess profits.
They are also reluctant to sell patents to SMIC.
Zhou Xin continued: "If there is no new core lithography machine, ASML has a high probability of winning in the semiconductor field in the future.
Nikon and Canon, which do not have much Americ Ken Capital behind them, will gradually fall behind, as long as ASML achieves a little technological leadership, from Intel to Samsung to TSMC, the use of ASML lithography machines will be greatly increased.
Help ASML form a positive cycle of R&D-technology leadership-R&D. ”
Zhou Xin knew that this was not a high probability, but an absolute.
Nikon's lithography machine, which had occupied more than 50% of the market share from the 80s to the beginning of the 21st century, had a market share of less than 5% in 2020, while ASML had a 90% market share.
The EUV lithography machine is monopolized by ASML.
Zhou Xin knows that in order to survive, especially in the current environment, the whole industry chain must be formed.
Otherwise, even if they make a lithography machine with the same accuracy as the mainstream products on the market, the foundry will still not choose you.
You can't get into the production process, and you never know what the lithography machine will look like.
Accuracy and yield rate are two concepts, and when accuracy is reached, there may be a great difference between the yield rate.
Unless Zhou Xin is willing to continue to develop blood transfusions for lithography machines, relying on the money earned elsewhere to transfuse blood for lithography machines.
Wait until Ameriken begins to ban the sale of advanced semiconductor chips to China.
Then the new chip lithography machine has a chance to enter the production process.
It's been too long, and there are a lot of uncontrollable variables.
"So we need to form a deep cooperative relationship with the chip foundry that Zhang Rujing wants to establish.
They've been short of money lately, and the last thing I'm short of is money.
I'm going to talk to Zhang Rujing, I'll give him the money, and then we'll start a lot of testing as soon as our lithography machine is built. ”
From consumer electronics brands to chip foundries to lithography machines and analog IC design, these most important nodes have to form a synergy.
In order to drive the development of the entire industrial chain.
After listening to this, Guan Jianying said, "Newman, I understand what you mean.
Although your money is earned from Wall Street, it is not Wall Street money, it is your money.
So there is no Wall Street capital behind the semiconductor company you set up, and we will either accept the entry of Wall Street capital, or we will build a separate system.
But it's too hard to build a system on its own. ”
Zhou Xin waved his hand: "First of all, I never said that we have to build a separate system.
We just do the lithography machine and analog IC design ourselves.
In addition, it is not to build a system by itself, Neon Semiconductor has been made half-dead, and we can form cooperation with Neon.
We can use the technology, experience and talents accumulated by Neon in the semiconductor field.
And I've never been averse to working with semiconductor companies in places like Americacan, Korea, and Wanwan. ”
Guan Jianying is a Chinese born in the mainland, not a bent person, so Zhou Xin can be said more bluntly.
"When our products are competitive enough, we can sell them their products, and their technology and products can also sell to us."
I changed a chapter 3k in the morning, and now I have another chapter 3k, and I've been adjusting my schedule lately.
(End of chapter)