"I believe that what happened recently on the NASDAQ has had a certain impact on all of you, and at the same time, the public opinion about the Internet has never been more intense.

We hope that this dialogue will give a little confidence and some food for thought to the Internet practitioners who are present and who have obtained relevant information through media reports and spontaneous publicity.

Except for me, all of you are in charge of Internet companies with a market value of 100 billion US dollars, and Microsoft's market value has exceeded 500 billion US dollars.

Gates, do you think the internet is a bubble? ”

Bill Gates, who was wearing a blue shirt and beige jacket, looked cautious, and he looked like he was cheering up: "I think there is a certain bubble.

The main reason is that some companies inflate their market value by falsifying financial reports, which is a kind of deception, but the consequences require all Internet companies to pay for them.

This is one of the most important reasons for the Nasdaq crisis, and the other is that the current market value is overdrawn to a certain extent.

At the same time, it is easy to form a reverse cycle when the Fed raises interest rates. ”

After Bill Gates finished speaking, Zhou Xin took over: "It seems that Bill is not very optimistic about the current situation of Internet companies, what about you, Jerry?" ”

Yang Zhiyuan is also a bit gloomy, strongly challenged by Quora, Yahoo is far from being as glamorous as it has been in history, and its market value will exceed 100 billion US dollars at its peak.

Time Warner, which was acquired by Quora, was far behind, which made Yang Zhiyuan, who first realized the value of Zhou Xin, very dissatisfied, dissatisfied that Yahoo's board of directors had not made up its mind to buy Riot Games at a high price and let Zhou Xin work for Yahoo.

When they reviewed it later, they thought that since Zhou Xin would sell Quora, when Riot Games was just becoming famous in '98, as long as the chips offered were high enough, Zhou Xin was very likely to sell Riot and work for Yahoo.

Yang Zhiyuan took the microphone and looked at the ground, and said in Mandarin with a curved tone: "I also think that there is a bubble now."

The fundamental reason for this bubble is that the development of Internet companies has not kept up with investors' expectations of it.

At present, there is only one company that has explored a stable profit model, and has a large profit amount and a high growth trend.

After other Internet companies raised a large amount of money from the capital market, they did not find a stable profit model, and Yahoo's current profit model is only advertising.

After the success of Quora, we also tried to launch a Yahoo version of the subscription magazine, but compared with Quora Jinxuan, our number of subscribers, average monthly income on the project, repurchase rate and other aspects are far from Quora.

The more we research inside Yahoo, the more we realize that Quora is an amazing product that fully embodies the spirit of the Internet of openness, collaboration, speed, and sharing, and the only thing that is not so in line with the spirit of the Internet is that its user mechanism is not very equal.

Yahoo's online subscription magazine requires dedicated editors and contributors, and even if their content has a user rating mechanism, it is still difficult to ensure that the content is liked by users. We also wanted to adopt the quora mechanism, and the quality of the answers in Yahoo's Q&A section was not up to the requirements of Internet magazines.

Many traditional print media outlets, such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, are exploring a Quora-like model, and their online paid magazine subscriptions have also not achieved good results.

Therefore, I believe that the Internet bubble exists, and in order for the real value of Internet companies to match the current price, there must be more quora and more profit models to be found. ”

Yang Zhiyuan said a lot, and when he mentioned the spirit of the Internet, the openness and sharing inside, Bill Gates's face was not very natural.

Because Microsoft has long faced an investigation by the Federal Trade Commission into Microsoft's abuse of its monopoly position in the PC operating system market.

There has been an impasse in the field before, starting last year with a formal lawsuit against Microsoft in the district court, and last month, the court released its findings finding that Microsoft's dominance in the x86-based PC operating system market constituted a substantial monopoly.

Monopoly and openness are naturally opposites.

Another Gerald Wright is also unhappy, Quora is already a product of Time Warner, Yang Zhiyuan has finished saying everything he wants to say, what will he say when it is his turn?

"Jerry, what about you?" Zhou Xin turned to Gerald.

The audience in the audience found it very interesting, four famous entrepreneurs on the stage, two spoke Chinese and two spoke English.

At the same time, it is intertwined with translation, which makes the whole scene very funny.

Zhou Xin also felt this abnormality, and the thought of whether to check his accent flashed through his mind.

I can't guarantee that this video will be pulled out and cut into a ghost animal video in the future, and he doesn't want his material to become the material of the ghost animal area.

When Zhou Xin's mind drifted far away, Gerald smiled and said, "This is the most concerned issue for people now, and it is also what is happening right now."

The Nasdaq index fell more than 10 percent, and there was a sort of consensus among financial commentators, economists who were looking forward to a sharp drop in the market value of Internet companies, and investors who were shorting Wall Street.

That is, it is a bubble now, and in my opinion, is there a bubble among the current NASDAQ Internet companies?

I think it exists, but whether the bubble is as big as this consensus thinks, I don't think so.

Internet companies include those that make large profits by falsifying financial data, and those that rely on countless users to achieve large profits.

The fall in the Nasdaq index is an opportunity, a great opportunity for the market to distinguish between truly valuable Internet companies and non-valuable Internet companies.

When Jerry talked about Quora just now, he was full of envy for Quora's business model and achievements.

Whether it's Yahoo or Microsoft's MSN, or traditional print media trying to learn from quora's payment model.

I am very grateful to Newman for laying a good foundation for the business model that quora is now what it is today.

Newman is definitely the best talent in the product field, a magician who can see people's hearts.

Similarly, the number of paid subscribers of quora can maintain a rapid growth trend on the basis of the huge number of people during Newman's tenure, which is inseparable from the use of Time Warner's channels to promote quora after Time Warner took over.

The parallel approach of online and offline media is an important reason why Quora can still maintain a rapid growth trend.

Therefore, I think that the sharp decline in the market value of Internet companies on the NASDAQ is a great opportunity for companies in traditional industries to merge with Internet companies. ”

This is indeed Gerard Wright's way of thinking, AOL originally acquired Time Warner, and after the Nasdaq index fell sharply, Time Warner's acquisition of AOL in turn was also absolutely absolute.

Zhou Xin finally said: "Everyone stands on their own point of view and analyzes the current collapse of the NAS index, and everyone believes that there is a bubble in the market value of Internet companies.

I share this view, and I can conclude that this decline is only the beginning, and it is far from over.

Even a 20 percent drop in the NASDAQ is not the end of the NASDAQ.

According to my observation in Silicon Valley, a large number of Internet companies have not yet achieved profitability, or even have little revenue, and can land on the NASDAQ exchange and raise a lot of money just by relying on the concept.

After raising funds, they don't think about how to run the business and use the company's main business to find a profit model, but invest heavily in advertising and marketing.

This is clearly unsustainable. ”

It is precisely because of the large-scale advertising of these Internet companies that Yahoo can achieve profitability.

"MicroStrategy's financial fraud incident was the trigger for the Nasdaq index decline, and with MicroStrategy's experience, other Internet companies are unlikely to engage in financial fraud again.

When the earnings reports of Internet companies are released in batches around March next year, the fact that huge losses will not be able to hide it.

After the long-standing lie that users are profitable is exposed, the Nasdaq index will usher in a more significant decline. ”

The four bigwigs on the stage all gave the same conclusion, and Zhou Xin gave complete logical reasoning.

This made the hearts of the Internet practitioners in China sink in the audience, and everyone still has the illusion of phased adjustment, thinking that when the 21st century comes, Internet companies will recover, and they can still get venture capital from international capital.

Now it seems that this is not a phased adjustment, it will be a long winter.

"Fortunately, we just got $5 million in financing from Goldman Sachs, and if we were to change it now, even if you joined us, it would be difficult for us to get this financing." Jack Ma whispered to Tsai Chongxin offstage.

"It looks like it's going to be a long winter, and the $5 million in financing has to be spent wisely." Jack Ma's expression was slightly hideous.

Tsai Chongxin replied to his words: "Yes, that's why I was so anxious when I negotiated with Goldman Sachs, and I would rather retreat than get the money first."

The information I got from the third-quarter earnings report and the communication with friends on Wall Street, the combination of the two shows that the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble is inevitable, but I don't know when it will be punctured.

Now it seems that the China Internet Conference will be the key, and Newman's words will definitely be reported by the Ameriken media.

The investment banks on Wall Street who should retreat are almost gone, and it's time to harvest retail investors and small and medium-sized investment institutions. ”

Jack Ma asked, "When do you think this round of decline will end?" ”

Tsai Chongxin replied: "With my understanding of Wall Street, it will end around March, and before that, it will fall through the psychological bottom line of every lucky investor with a mountain of posture, and then complete the last fall in March when the annual report of the past year is intensively released." ”

Jackma and Tsai Chongxin were glad that Ahri had survived and grabbed the last parachute before the plane landed, and the other horse was not so lucky.

Income tax has to be paid up to 45%, Zhou Xin paid 37%, there are many ways to avoid taxes, Zhou Xin did not take, because he does not trust those accounting firms, he can't make mistakes, once he listens to any mistakes in their plans, it will be a big trouble, and even the accounting firm may deliberately give Zhou Xin a plan with hidden loopholes.

(End of chapter)