"Newman, how do you see the future of the Internet?

So far, the Nasdaq index has fallen by more than 20 percent, and countless investors are facing huge losses.

What do you think about the growing perception that the internet is a scam and that it doesn't bring real value? ”

When Zhou Xin returned to San Francisco from Shenhai, there were already a large number of reporters waiting for him at San Francisco International Airport.

The Nasdaq index is far from seeing a stop in its decline, falling another 10 points in just five trading days.

The index fell by 10 points, and the individual stocks in it can be imagined.

It has become the consensus on Wall Street that more and more people think that Internet companies are a bubble.

Even established computer companies like Microsoft, Cisco, and Oracle are starting to lose their stock prices, let alone other Internet companies.

Previously, after Bill Gates, Yang Zhiyuan and others attended the Internet conference in China, they returned to press Ameriken and were chased by reporters.

Now it's Zhou Xin's turn.

As a representative of Silicon Valley, everyone from the industry to the financial circle wants to hear his voice.

"I think the Internet is still the future, and the 21st century will be the age of the Internet.

Things are spiraling, and it's not that the Internet is being hindered, it's just that Internet companies have suffered a little setback in the financial markets.

This will not affect the development of the Internet industry. "As an open-hook player with a vision of the future, Zhou Xin has infinite confidence in the Internet.

"Newman, when do you think the NASDAQ's decline will end?

Is it true that the decline will continue until the end of the first quarter at the Internet conference in China? ”

"What I said at the China Internet Conference is just my personal speculation.

In my opinion, with the release of the annual reports of major Internet companies, Internet companies with good performance will stop the decline, and after the first quarter financial reports come out, the market value of Internet companies that can still maintain a high growth trend will return to the right track.

As before, as long as companies related to the concept of the Internet can obtain billions or even tens of billions of valuations, such a Nasdaq market will not exist again.

Enterprises in the Internet sector will still enjoy higher valuations than traditional industries, and the higher valuations are based on the premise of maintaining high growth.

Internet companies that are unable to maintain high growth will gradually have their valuations consistent with those of companies in traditional industries, which is also a kind of valuation regression. ”

After briefly answering some reporters' questions at the airport, Zhou Xin returned to his mansion in San Francisco.

His trip to China can be said to be full of harvest.

It has received unanimous support from the national to local government levels in China.

Before leaving Huaguo, Zhou Xin met with Zhang Rujing in Shenhai and had a brief chat about Xinxin lithography machine and SMIC International Cooperation.

He vaguely mentioned that Zhang Rujing should pay attention not to be caught by TSMC.

Because SMIC wants to develop, it is bound to compete with TSMC for orders.

The current global chip foundry market is not enough to support the two TSMC.

Coupled with chip foundry, each production line needs to invest a huge amount of money, so the competition in the field of chip foundry can be said to be a zero-sum game.

The company's orders are limited, and it gives orders to SMIC, and TSMC's orders are less.

Coupled with the mainland's advantages in labor costs, hydropower taxes, etc., SMIC can reduce costs to a much lower level than TSMC, and can use cost advantages to compete for the market.

If TSMC and ASML hadn't joined forces to achieve a breakthrough in lithography machines and then a breakthrough in chip process technology, SMIC might not have been able to occupy a place in the high-end market.

The comprehensive advantages brought by technological breakthroughs have helped TSMC evolve from a star in the Hsinchu Park to a sacred mountain in the entire Wanwan area.

After SMIC has developed to a certain scale, and its market share has been seized a lot, TSMC will naturally launch an attack from the perspective of patents.

This is the trick of semiconductor companies.

Zhang Rujing immediately understood Zhou Xin's hint at that time, but he was very confident and said that he would not be caught by TSMC.

Zhou Xin didn't say much more. In this regard, it is very taboo to talk in a nutshell. Zhou Xin plans to talk more specifically after the cooperation between Xinxin Lithography Machine and SMIC deepens.

Tell Zhang Rujing how TSMC seized SMIC's handle as a case.

As for Li Jingyi, she still has half a year to graduate, and she will not come to San Francisco until she graduates.

Therefore, in the first half of the year, Zhou Xin was still only one person in San Francisco.

There happens to be a lot of things to deal with.

"Newman, we have made the first version of the enterprise class qq, this is the installation package, you can take a look, if you have any comments, feel free to give me feedback."

After investing in Tencent and exchanging email addresses, Pony Ma sent an email to Zhou Xin almost every day, from the details of the functions of the enterprise QQ to the charging model and target audience of the QQ show.

After Pony's problems accumulate to a certain extent, he will send an email to Zhou Xin.

Tencent also gave Mr. Zhou a position as chief operating officer, a freelance position with a salary and options.

But Pony Ma had too many questions, so much so that Zhou Xin would only answer selectively after seeing it.

"Pony, I think you should be more flexible in the process of building groups.

A large enterprise will have many departments, these departments should be inherently a group, and then there is an address book in the enterprise QQ, and the address book is classified according to the organizational structure of the enterprise to store the information of each employee.

These employee information include names, mobile phone numbers, enterprise QQ numbers, etc., and then set up permission isolation, for example, employees can only see information within the department, and department leaders can only see information at the same level as him.

In the process of building a group, you can select the address book, pull the department in, and then all the employees in the department will be pulled in.

To put it simply, each person and each group can be an element in the group building process. ”

After replying to Pony's email, Zhou Xin started the meeting, and he planned to spend a lot of time on matrix this year.

Originally, his plan was to release the first product this fall.

But now, judging by the progress, it may not be possible to do so this fall.

Because not long ago, Matrix acquired Handspring and successfully recruited Jeff Hawking.

"MOS must be a Linux kernel-based operating system, Jeff, you need a shift in your thinking.

What we want to do is not a handheld computer, what we want to do is a mobile phone, and I hope that the matrix, as a mobile phone, is functionally as close to the handheld computer as possible.

Hopefully it will have more features, but it won't be a handheld, it's a long way from a handheld. ”

Yes, after the acquisition of Handspring, Zhou Xin plans to make an open-source mobile phone operating system.

Originally, he didn't plan to build a too complex operating system on Matrix, and just use a mature embedded operating system solution.

Because of the rapid development of the mobile phone market, there are many companies in the market that can provide mature embedded operating system solutions.

Matrix only needs to be individually adapted to these proven solutions.

But Zhou Xin hopes to make Matrix's first product an over-the-top product between traditional feature phones and smartphones.

Semi-smartphones, to be exact.

In addition to still relying on traditional buttons for control, the system application is as close as possible to the form of a smartphone application.

To achieve this, you need to redevelop the operating system from the ground up.

So they bought Handspring, a company that makes handheld computers, and its founder, Jeff Hawking, is one of the explorers in the field of handheld computers.

The company he founded was called Palm, which was arguably the first manufacturer of handheld computers.

The handwriting input method developed by Jeff Hawking is very popular among Apple Newton users. Apple Newton is a handheld computer launched by Apple.

After Jeff Hawking joined, he was fully responsible for the research and development of the mobile phone operating system, which was named MOS and was pinned on by Zhou Xin.

"Newman, I know what you mean, and we're working in this direction as well, but unlike embedded operating systems, mobile operating systems with Linux kernels have a lot of practical problems to overcome.

I'm worried that it will affect my goal of releasing Matrix's first phone this year.

We need to develop the MOS, or at least the kernel, before applications can start to launch on top of it.

And as the system is developed, the application needs to be adjusted in turn to the changes in the operating system.

It takes a lot of time. ”

"We can postpone it, good products are not afraid of being late, and I don't mind launching Matrix next year.

Matrix is my one-man company, and we don't have to face pressure from investors.

I'm a perfectionist from a product standpoint, and we can take our time.

Also, if you want to add someone, feel free to let me know. ”

According to Zhou Xin's understanding, the crisis of the Nasdaq is only the beginning now, and even the 50% decline has not yet arrived, and it is far from the end.

In the process, countless Internet companies will go bankrupt and go bankrupt, and a large number of talents will be released into the market.

Part of the development progress can be solved by recruiting people.

"The annual reports of Nasdaq Internet companies are intensively released, and more than 80% of enterprises have net operating losses.

Recently, the annual reports of major Internet companies have been released, and the focus of investors' attention has shifted from user growth and click increase to operating income, total profit and profit growth rate.

The 1999 annual reports of the vast majority of Internet companies did not satisfy investors, with the Nasdaq Composite Stock Market Index falling 25% after the opening of today's market, forcing a large number of investors to sell their shares before tax day, and a large number of Internet companies being forced to reevaluate their spending on advertising campaigns. ”

"Yesterday, a much-hyped company backed by Amazon collapsed just nine months after completing its IPO."

"The mentality of Internet companies that 'growth is greater than profits' and the invincible aura of the 'new economy' are beginning to shatter"

"By March 2000, the value of most Internet stocks had fallen more than 50 percent from their highs."

"Quora's growth has not been as expected, and Time Warner's market value has shrunk by more than 40 percent. In order to maintain high profit growth, Quora began to experiment with product placement, which was criticized by a large number of Quora users.

Loyal Quora users protested by pulling banners in front of Time Warner's headquarters, with the 'Let Newman Back' banner standing out. ”

"The news of Neon falling into recession again triggered a global sell-off in tech stocks, and the Nasdaq continued to fall on the same day that Yahoo stopped merger talks with Ebay."

"Newman's Riot Games fell by just 20 percent, making it the smallest internet company in the entire Nasdaq market."

Throughout the first quarter of 2000, the world's eyes were focused on the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble.

The Nasdaq did not stop with a 20% decline, it fell by a full 70%, and a large number of Internet companies went bankrupt.

The S&P strategy, which is designated by emerging investments, rose more than 50 percent in the first quarter.

The S&P rose 42% in the first quarter, with a flood of money pouring into high-yielding companies in traditional industries after a massive exodus from tech stocks.

Emerging Investments' investment income in the first quarter was $6.7 billion.

That's because you can't eat the full range of returns, and as the market capitalization of S&P-related companies continues to rise, emerging investments are also selling off related stocks.

At the end of the first quarter, Warren Jensen stepped out and engaged in intensive negotiations with major investment banks and other types of investment institutions.

Acquisition of a large number of enterprises in the computer sector at extremely low prices.

The bursting of the Nasdaq bubble has affected far more than just Internet companies, with hardware like Cisco and IBM and enterprise hardware companies taking a serious hit in valuation.

Cisco's valuation is down 80%.

Under the leadership of Warren Jensen, Xinxing Investment has successively realized the actual control of NVIDIA and ARM.

Unlike Intel and AMD, Nvidia at this time focused on graphics processing, with an annual revenue of $160 million in 1999, and had just won a large order from Microsoft's xbox.

Even the Internet winter has limited impact on Nvidia.

But in the end, under the premise of a relatively high premium, Xinxing Investment successfully acquired more than 60% of Nvidia's shares from the investors behind Nvidia.

Nvidia has a market capitalization of around $600 million, while emerging investments give a valuation of $1 billion.

As for ARM, it only cost $200 million.

The value of NVIDIA is easy for everyone to understand, there is revenue, and the field of image processing will become more and more important with the development of the Internet.

Although Nvidia may not be able to win in the competition with ATI, its business model and profit growth point are very clear.

But ARM is different, a company specializing in chip architecture, and industry insiders are not optimistic about the prospects in this field.

To put it simply, chip design companies can design the architecture themselves, and no one can predict that the technology will develop so quickly in the future, and the chip industry will be subdivided, and even the chip architecture is enough to support a company to do this.

Apple previously invested $3 million and owns a 43% stake in ARM. Apple sold those shares after ARM's IPO and then in 2010 it wanted to buy ARM for $8.5 billion.

Even a specialist company like Apple in 2000 didn't see the value of ARM, let alone investors on Wall Street and London's Financial Street.

What other companies can be acquired?

Give Raven Point advice, companies in the field of technology.

My own thinking is definitely not as complete as everyone thinks, and this point in time is a rare opportunity in 20 years.

(End of chapter)