Chapter 330: A Precursor to a Tsunami
There are many industrial chains involved in lithography machines, so Zhou Xin has always thought about the principle of slow substitution.
In the advanced process, mature products from mature suppliers in Europe, the United States and Japan are used, and suppliers are gradually replaced in lithography machines that are one to two generations behind.
For example, the Xinxin lithography machine has achieved a breakthrough in the 40nm process, and the 130nm lithography machine technology originally purchased from Nikon has gradually tried to replace it with a domestic supplier.
It's a step-by-step process.
Zhou Xin does not have a system, there is no way to directly add points to solve all real-world problems, he hopes to not only ensure the competitiveness of Xinxin lithography machine in the commercial field, but also gradually promote the improvement of the domestic industrial chain.
Zeiss's refusal gave them a blow in the face, and it was always thought that Zeiss would continue to cooperate with Xinxin in the EUV field because of the success of the immersion lithography machine.
The 5 billion yuan lithography machine R&D fund is also based on this consideration, because if you want to rely on Xinxin to get the objective lens system by itself, 5 billion RMB is far from enough.
Moreover, Zeiss's refusal is purely commercial, and there are good reasons for people to join EUV LLC for nearly ten years, and there is no reason to suddenly switch to Xinxin.
Not to mention that Xinxin and even Huaguo behind it have zero technology accumulation in the field of EUV.
"It is possible for Nikon to sell, as long as our immersion lithography machine sells well enough to eat up Nikon's market share, and their precision instrument department cannot make ends meet, it is possible to sell it." Zhou Xin said.
As long as the price is right, there's nothing you can't sell.
Considering that the financial crisis is imminent, the odds are even greater that they will sell.
What Xinxin has to do is to squeeze out a large number of markets that originally belonged to Nikon before the financial crisis.
Guan Jianying reminded: "It is unlikely, even if Nikon is willing to sell, the regulators in various countries, especially Neon and Europe, they will not agree."
EUVA has been investing in EUV for so many years, and the Ministry of Industry and Economic Affairs will not allow Nikon to sell the Precision Instruments Division to us at such a time. ”
Zhou Xin nodded silently in agreement.
He forgot that there is also the stubble of supervision, and the previous failure of Xinxin's acquisition of Cymer was due to the refusal of supervision.
"It was so smooth that we ignored that the EUV LLC was still waiting for us.
This time it can be regarded as a lesson for us, things are not all smooth sailing.
Especially in the field of lithography machines, we have only achieved a temporary lead. Hu Zhengming concluded.
Hu Zhengming knew that Zeiss's refusal to continue cooperation with Xinxin in the EUV field was important to them, which meant that they were inherently five years behind ASML in the research and development of EUV.
Five years is still an optimistic estimate.
ASML is the only manufacturer of lithography machines for EUV LLC.
But Hu Zhengming wasn't too frustrated, because when he founded Strategy, the gap between them and Cadence was just as big.
They expected it to take five years to catch up, but it actually took about three years for Cadence to achieve 90 percent of the results.
Difficulties will always exist, but they will be manifested in different forms, whether it is entrepreneurial experience or scientific research experience, Hu Zhengming has been profoundly told this.
Zhou Xin also felt that it was no big deal after calming down.
Because the immersion lithography machine is enough to advance the process to 7nm, in 2020, Huaguo will not even solve the problem of 28nm national production.
It is good enough that he can help Huaguo solve the localization of the whole process of 7nm chips, and as for the more advanced process, he can only say that he will do his best.
From a commercial point of view, the commercial value of EUV is not so exaggerated.
The first generation of EUV was successfully developed in 2010 and officially commercialized in 2013, due to the complexity of the equipment, the production capacity is extremely limited, and the initial annual output does not exceed 20 units.
According to the 13-year commercialization, Xinxin is optimistically estimated to be three years behind, and conservatively estimated to be five years behind, which is nothing.
"We're going to poach people from Nikon and do it ourselves." "I know some experts in the field of optics from Nikon, and I'll try to see if I can poach people from Nikon," Lin said.
Recently, a lot of money was raised from the IPO, and we are fully prepared financially. ”
Zhou Xin said: "The 20 billion RMB just raised is the initial ammunition, and if we want financial support in the future, we can transfer money from other sectors." ”
If China had not yet joined the WTO when the Asian financial crisis occurred in 1998, the strict monetary control policy fundamentally locked in the liquidity of international capital entering the Chinese market.
In addition to the practitioners of the financial industry, they must also be practitioners of Guangdong Province, and the vast number of Chinese people have a very shallow impression of the financial crisis of '98.
The financial crisis of 2000 was mainly in the Internet industry, and the impact on China was still relatively small.
Therefore, the financial crisis that swept the world in 2008 gave Chinese people an intuitive concept of financial crisis and a new understanding of the periodic financial crisis of capitalism.
The four trillion plan is even more mixed in the future.
The Chinese people's impression of the financial crisis is '08, and that's because a lot of landmark events happened in '08, such as the stock market crash in major markets around the world, the federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and so on.
But in fact, the crisis began in 2007, and excessive borrowing under overly lax credit standards led to the birth of the crisis.
In 2006, Warren Jensen flew to Zhangjiang almost every half month.
"Contraction, we have to contract comprehensively and strategically, now is the era when cash is king, we have to liquidate most of our equity assets, winter is coming."
"It's time to go to gold."
"When the crisis came, I thought that emerging investments could start buying a bank."
Zhou Xin has been shrinking across the board since 06.
Because of the combination of Madoff and the mobile Internet, the already loose credit standards have been abused.
A large number of middle-class people have access to lines of credit from banks, and they can borrow $750,000 from banks for $500,000 worth of assets, which is more than 100% collateral.
The middle class then took the money to buy Madoff's wealth management products.
For five consecutive years, Madoff Financial's high returns and on-time payments have made this snowball bigger and bigger, and at the end of last year, when Baidu Pay made a year-end summary, it claimed that they helped customers manage as much as $500 billion in wealth.
At least 80 percent of the $500 billion is Madoff's wealth management products.
This is just one channel of Baidu Pay, and channels such as eBayPay are also selling Madoff wealth management products.
Just because Baidu Pay is a big trafficker, they sell the most.
This bubble frightened Zhou Xin, and he used Internet finance to blow up Madoff's bubble tenfold.
This also means that when the foam bursts, it can cause far more than 10 times the impact. This would be an even bigger thunder than the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
NewPay and WeChat Pay, the only two that do not sell Madoff's financial products, will be a rare clear stream.
At the beginning of 2006, house prices began to fall.
In early 2007, subprime lenders began filing for bankruptcy.
In April 2007, two large hedge funds collapsed due to a drag from subprime loan investments.
The hedge fund's collapse was brought forward by two months, and when Zhou Xin saw the news, he realized that winter had come.
After the collapse of large hedge funds, a large number of investors became suspicious of hedge funds, triggering a crisis of confidence in the hedge fund industry.
The largest fund in the hedge fund industry is none other than Madoff.
This is like the Tianhong Fund that later generations created with the help of Alipay, and with the blessing of Yu'e Bao, in one year, it has changed from a fund company ranked 50 in scale to the largest fund company.
This is the power of the Internet, not to mention Madoff, who can give 10 points of profit.
Users start a run on Madoff financial products.
"Sorry, the wealth management product you purchased has not yet reached the redemption period, please wait patiently for the arrival of the redemption date on February 17, 2008."
Investors found themselves unable to redeem the Madoff Fund from Baidu Pay, further sparking panic among investors.
Although the Madoff Wealth Management Fund is a one-year closed period, it has always been available for redemption at any time, and the platform guarantees it for users.
In other words, Madoff is a one-year closed period, and if users want to withdraw, Baidu will pay to help Madoff redeem.
Unfortunately, there are too many people to pay, Baidu can't bear it, and Baidu has only prepared $1 billion in cash in the bank for this purpose, ready to redeem it for users.
They never imagined that a billion dollars would be paid out one day.
The news that the redemption deadline had not yet reached appeared for only one day, which quickly caused panic among investors.
The scale of the previous request was $3 billion, but after this news was quickly spread by Weibo, the scale of the application for redemption exceeded $10 billion in just one day, and the situation is still fermenting.
"What did Bernard say?" Robin asked.
In the cooperation with Madoff, Baidu Pay has risen rapidly by taking advantage of this shareholder wind, although it is not as good as NewPay and WeChat Pay in terms of payment frequency and payment amount, but it has successfully surpassed WeChat Pay in terms of total personal account balance.
In terms of the total account balance, it even surpassed NewPay at one time.
Because of the success of Baidu Pay, Baidu's stock price has also soared, and the valuation of Baidu Pay alone is close to $100 billion.
So much so that there have been endless voices within NewPay to cooperate with Madoff.
"We are in contact, and Madoff said that they have prepared 20 billion yuan of cash funds to arrive soon, and it is expected to take another three days." George Reyes said.
George Reyes has known Bernard Madoff for a long time, dating back more than a decade when he was working at Sun Microcomputer.
The collaboration with Madoff was what he drove and it was thanks to this contribution that he went from being a treasurer to a CFO.
"Not for three days, tomorrow at the latest, now we have more than $10 billion in redemption applications in the background, and in three days this number will be much more than $10 billion.
By that time, $20 billion will not be enough. Robin's face flushed as he paced back and forth around the room.
He was vaguely worried, worried that Madoff would go bankrupt.
If Madoff goes bankrupt, Baidu will have to follow suit, and Baidu has already paid $1 billion on its books.
The hole of 400 billion yuan will never be filled.
Although the product is provided by Madoff, Baidu is just a channel, the problem is that this hole is too big, and the regulator will not let Baidu go.
"I'll continue to communicate with Bernard." George Reyes was also flustered.
It's also because the holes are too big, and if it's just billions of holes, it's not a big problem.
But this is hundreds of billions of dollars, and the transactions under his and Madoff's table will definitely be dug up.
He had to go to federal prison and get through the cell.
Madoff mobilized $10 billion the next day to make the payment, but that amount was far from enough.
After a day of fermentation, the amount of redemption has exceeded 30 billion US dollars.
Because the snowball is getting bigger and bigger, Madoff doesn't honestly put it in the bank like the original plane, but makes various investments.
But he is still very steady, choosing to invest mainly in US bonds, mainly US bonds, supplemented by stocks, and leaving only a small amount of cash.
Coupled with the amount of money he has paid over the years, the cash on his books is only 20 billion.
What's even worse is that the domestic products he bought range from one year to five years, and it takes time for one-year treasury bonds to be converted into dollars, and at the same time, so many treasury bonds are sold in the market, and there must be someone to take over.
Madoff's cashing pressure is enormous.
"Robin, we can't do that anymore.
There is a lot of buzz in the market right now, and assets are sold off and are grossly undervalued.
The contract signed by Madoff and the user is a one-year closed-end financial management, and we can't think that it is wrong to redeem at maturity because we used to redeem at any time. "Madoff resolutely refused to pay after cashing out $10 billion.
He flies to Silicon Valley to try to align himself with Robin.
Robin opened the window, and there was already a circle of people outside Baidu's park, all shouting to pay back.
There are even those who hold up signs.
"If we insist, the angry crowd will set this place on fire." Robin said.
Robin paused for a moment and said, "Bernard, I know you're under a lot of pressure too.
But this is not a reason to refuse to pay, and the amount of the payment is now only $50 billion.
This number is not growing any longer at the moment.
We have now redeemed the 50 billion, and there will be another $350 billion in users who will trust us.
If we don't pay all the time, the amount will get bigger and bigger. ”
Madoff said: "It's not that I don't pay, it's that the bottom of our fund is all kinds of products, and these products can't be turned into cash instantly."
I can't.
The reason why it supported cashing at any time was that Baidu adopted a strategy to benchmark NewPay money funds in order to promote Madoff.
This is a strategy that Baidu insists on, and the Madoff Fund has not supported Baidu in the first place.
The reason why I transferred $10 billion yesterday is also because I want to relieve this pressure, because we had a good relationship before.
But I will never be able to come up with $50 billion in cash.
To take that much cash out, Madoff would face losses of at least $2.5 billion or more. ”
(End of chapter)