"Although I have no personal relationship with Prince Czartorysky, I do smell a hint of his views on the two Tsars in his article in The Economist."

Arthur recalled Prince Czartorysky's manuscript: "As a young tsar who grew up in the Russian court, Alexander I was intent on cheering up, but wavering. He was not as impulsive and moody as his unfortunate father, Paul I, but was taught by the Swiss democrat Laalp to yearn for the lofty ideals of France in 1789.

However, as the son of Paul I, he could not escape the traditional nature of the Tsars of the past to expand the territory. His bright blue eyes, his graceful and burly figure, his high eyebrows, broad forehead, and closed lips all gave him a sense of spirit.

His physical strength and penchant for bravado seem to have motivated him to finish Catherine II's unfinished business against Turkey, and to use the Danube to wash away the regret he still has for his inadvertent involvement in the patricide plot. ”

Hearing this, Talleyrand nodded slightly: "These words are quite objective, compared with Nicholas I, Alexander I not only has a naïve personality that is very attractive, but also knows how to respect the natural order and existing principles of Europe. ”

Arthur asked, "You've been mentioning this since the beginning, so what exactly is the natural order and existing principles of Europe?" ”

Talleyrand explained unhurriedly: "The so-called natural order and existing principle of Europe is that the power of each country can only operate within its strategic limits. The first to realize this was Cardinal Richelieu, who led France to greatness.

On his deathbed, he warned Louis XIII: 'Never invade the Netherlands, it would only make the uncontrollable English stronger, and it would be the greatest folly.' ’

For France at that time, the secret to maintaining its position lay in two points.

First: Don't weaken the Netherlands too much, let these sea coachmen become a help to contain the British, as long as the Netherlands is still there, France's land hegemony can be secured.

Second: to maintain the division of the German region of Central Europe and the Italian city-states of southern Europe, and as long as their unification tendencies are stopped, then French hegemony in Europe will be secure.

Unfortunately, however, Bishop Richelieu's strategy for France was shattered by the short-sightedness of Louis XIV later. Together with the British, he crushed the Dutch and pushed the strategic limits of France. If you look at it only in the context of a decade or two, the French conquest of Holland seems to have led to an expansion of our national power.

But in reality, we have much more to lose than we have gained, and the British, who have lost their grip on the Dutch, have soared into the sky, and France has lost its dominance over the seas of Europe. So, since then, all France can expect is European land hegemony. ”

When Arthur heard this, he just took the spoon and stirred the soup bowl in front of him: "I'm not a diplomat, so I can't understand your words deeply." But from the perspective of a history student, your perspective is really interesting. But if you've told me all these little private secrets, aren't you worried that I'll turn around and bring this to our Ministry of Foreign Affairs? Or would you love to have me? ”

Talleyrand raised his eyebrows and pursed his lips and smiled: "Arthur, on the one hand, you take yourself too lightly. You're not just a history student in my eyes, and I'm not telling you all about storytelling, and I'm sure you'll understand it deeply.

But on the other hand, you take yourself too seriously. I don't think that if you bring these words to the Foreign Office, it will have any effect on your Foreign Secretary, Viscount Palmerston. His hatred of France was deep-rooted, and at the same time he was wary of Austria's expansion in central and southern Europe.

But what stranges me is that he seems to be the only one who does not care about the Russian national strategy of continuing to advance westward and trying to control Eastern Europe and Western Asia. If he fears that supporting Poland will lead to the emergence of a pro-French regime there, then he can discuss this issue with me face to face.

If Belgium can talk, why can't everyone sit down calmly and talk about Poland? He still did not understand the concept of strategic limits, and a strong Russia was far more appalling than a strong France.

He is so concerned with the limits of struggle at the tactical level that he ignores the competitive thinking at the strategic level. You should know that the center of the world is always on the continental island of Europe and Asia, which is determined by many factors such as population, economy, history and culture.

And the strategic limits of France are determined, and when France is strong, the limits of what we can control can only be limited to the Iberian Peninsula, the Apennine Peninsula and the German plains. If it is farther than this, even if France can control it in a short time, this fragile control can easily be broken by external forces.

But Russia is different, its geographical location dictates, it is the only country in the world that has the opportunity to establish continental hegemony in Europe and Asia at the same time. ”

When Arthur heard Talleyrand's words, he looked at Talleyrand with some mixed feelings.

Arthur was already surprised at the accuracy of his prediction when Prince Czartoryski suggested in The Economist that a united Prussia would threaten the European order and that Poland would have to maintain its independence in order to contain it.

And now Talleyrand is peddling the 'Russian threat theory' in front of him, which makes Arthur have to give a thumbs up to the excellence of these diplomatic activists.

However, before agreeing with Talleyrand, he still intends to listen to the specific reasons analyzed by the old lame.

Arthur asked, "Why do you say that?" ”

Talleyrand commented lightly: "I have a basis for saying this. Although I have no grudges against the Russians, and even had a good relationship with their predecessor, Tsar Alexander I, my personal feelings cannot prevail over the facts.

In my opinion, Russia's geographical position and traditional values determine that once Russia becomes strong, it will become the most destabilizing factor in the whole of Eurasia, and indeed in the world.

Because of its vast territory, and even more so because of its high latitude, it is the only country in the world that can threaten both northern and central Europe through its military presence on the Kola Peninsula, the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus of the Ottoman Empire across the Caspian Sea, and the Persian Kingdom in Western Asia across the Caucasus Mountains.

If its power is strong enough, it will be able to control even Central Asia, which lies at the foot of the Altai Mountains, and the Far East, below Siberia. To make matters worse, it also controls Alaska through the Bering Strait. If it could develop that place, then the British presence in North America would also be threatened. ”

When Arthur heard this, he only chuckled lightly: "I can understand your concern, but it seems to me that Viscount Palmerston is obviously more worried about the other side of the English Channel than Alaska in the Bering Strait." ”

Talleyrand nodded, "So that's the problem. He was so wary of France that he forgot that we could work together. After the defeat of the Netherlands, France had completely lost the possibility of dominating Europe on its own. The devastation of the Revolution and the subsequent Napoleonic Wars put our land hegemony in Europe in jeopardy.

As for Britain, you do not seek to dominate the land of Europe. You are obviously more concerned about protecting your trade routes than carrying guns and fighting with mainland countries. Therefore, you must find a reliable partner in Europe to cooperate with, so as to ensure that your influence in Europe will not continue to decline. But IMHO, it is clearly more dangerous to cooperate with the Russians than with the French. In particular, it was with the current Tsar Nicholas I of Russia. ”

Arthur asked, "You have been mentioning His Majesty the Emperor of St. Petersburg for a long time, where does your anxiety come from?" ”

Talleyrand picked up a napkin and wiped his hands: "Arthur, you are a police officer in Scotland Yard, so it is okay not to know about the influential people in Europe, but people like me must know everything about the guys who can influence the policies of countries." So, I'm sure your Foreign Secretary, Viscount Palmerston, is the same.

Compared with his brother Alexander I, Nicholas I had a clearer purpose, a stronger will, and a stronger and more iron-blooded wrist. In other words, he was more tsarist than Alexander I. Unfortunately, the Decembrist uprising broke out at the beginning of his rise to power. So this adds a touch of sensitivity and suspicion to his character.

Equally determined to preserve the absolute monarchy, Metternich of Austria was far easier to deal with than His Majesty the Tsar. If Britain does not intend to intervene in the Polish question, well, I accept. But I'd like to share with you a little bit of news that I just gotten, and that will help support my point. ”

Arthur smiled and asked, "Will it embarrass you by leaking this news?" ”

Talleyrand took a sip of wine: "No, even if I don't say it anyway, you'll find out in two days." ”

Arthur blinked, hinting, "Then I'm sorry for you, your news may be of some help to my future discussions with the cabinet about the assassination." ”

"That's for the best."

"I just received news yesterday that Pasha Muhammad Ali of Egypt of the Ottoman Empire, dissatisfied with the Ottoman Sultan's failure to keep his promise to appoint him the title of governor of Syria and Crete, raised the slogan of jihad to rebuild the Arab Empire, and sent his son Ibrahim to lead 30,000 Egyptian troops out of the Sinai Peninsula to take Palestine and Syria.

Today, the Egyptian army has broken through Arish, Gaza, and is currently besieging Jaffa, while the sheikhs of Lebanon and Syria have welcomed the arrival of the Egyptian army, and they seem happy to break away from the Ottoman Empire with Ali's help. Judging from the current news coming out of the Ottoman court, it seems that the Ottoman Sultan Mahmud II is sending troops to negotiate with Ali at the same time.

If his negotiations with Ali fail, then the two sides will have to fight a decisive battle in Anatolia. Unfortunately, the most capable army of the Ottoman Empire is the army of Pasha Ali in Egypt, and the Ottoman navy has been completely destroyed by your General Codrington, so I am not optimistic about the prospect of a decisive Ottoman battle.

Mahmud II was apparently well aware of this, so when he received the news of Ali's rebellion, he sent a distress message to Paris. The same distress letter, I believe there was also a copy on Viscount Palmerston's desk. In addition to this, Metternich and Nicholas I must have had a share there. ”

"Really?" Arthur groaned for a while: "I beg all due respect, if it is true as you say, why is there no rumor in the British public opinion circles at all?" ”

The corners of Talielang's mouth twitched: "So this is the strange place." The lack of information goes a long way to the point that Viscount Palmerston has no intention of intervening. But that's also normal, not only is he not going to get involved, but we are not going to get involved.

However, I can tell you for sure that the Tsar may intervene. I can understand that Viscount Palmerston does not intend to delve into Poland, but I cannot understand if he intends to hold his ground even on the question of Ottoman and Ali. ”

When Arthur heard this, he suddenly remembered General Napier, who had left the port from Liverpool before.

But in front of Talleyrand, he didn't tell the whole truth.

Arthur spoke: "Maybe it's because of cholera and parliamentary reform, and there's just another Liverpool assassination. As you know, Britain is in a mess of its own right now, and there's no time to be distracted by anything else. ”

"You can't say that." Talleyrand shook his finger: "France has only experienced the July Revolution not long ago, and we are now taking strict precautions against cholera, so we cannot generalize about domestic and foreign affairs. And haven't you thought carefully that some of the problems can be completely artificial? ”

"Of course I did."

Arthur leaned back in his chair: "But first, I have no evidence, and second, if this problem is man-made, then it is out of my jurisdiction." As you know, Viscount Palmerston had a good relationship with the Russians, and he was an Irish man, and the Times even referred to him as 'Cupid from Ireland', so his deep friendship with Madame Levine was a matter of course. If I went to tell the Viscount of Melbourne that the Foreign Secretary's heart wanted to kill me, it would be too bloody. ”

Hearing this, Talelang tapped his fingertips on the table and said, "If you want proof, I happen to have some here." But since the sources of the evidence are not easy to tell, how you use them depends on the art of your speech. Of course, if you're worried about offending a minister who can't control you, that's okay if I didn't say it. ”

Arthur laughed when he heard this: "Mr. Talleyrand, you have said this, how can I leave?" ”

Hearing this, Talleyrand also showed a sly smile, he raised his wine glass and touched Arthur: "Arthur, I know that this young man of yours is different from ordinary young people. Of course, if you succeed, then today's diplomatic class will be considered free for you. ”

"You still want to charge for it?"

"Of course." Talleyrand straightened his shirt and said arrogantly: "Talleyrand's personal guidance, even if you are charged 10,000 pounds, is it expensive?" Metternich spent millions of francs to buy some news from me. I'm already very cheap, young man, for you. ”

(End of chapter)