Zhuge Jin finally made up his mind to help Liu Bei plan with all his might, and no longer scruples about saying the wrong thing.

But how can you ignore the major affairs of the country of soldiers, the place of death and life?

Before making a formal proposal, it is still very necessary to fully investigate the strength of the enemy and the enemy.

Knowing oneself and knowing the other side can not be defeated in a hundred battles.

So Zhuge Jin asked Liu Bei in detail: Now the strength of the enemy and our army, the deployment, the commanders and generals, and the grain and grass situation.

Some of these data are not clear to Liu Bei, such as Yuan Shujun's grain and grass situation.

But whatever Liu Bei can know, he knows everything.

Now it is a critical moment to survive in death, and there is no room for hiding any secrets.

Just a few minutes later, Zhuge Jin roughly figured out:

At present, Liu Bei's garrison in Guangling County has a total strength of about 13,400 people.

And Yuan Shu's army used about 40,000 people, which was three times that of Liu Bei's army, and this did not count Yuan Shu's reserves in the rear.

Today's Yuan Shu, the people under his rule may be miserable, but the size of his army is definitely not to be underestimated.

Especially when he achieved the high position of a general many years ago, and before the outbreak of Dong Zhuo's rebellion, he used his power to bring out part of the elite of the northern army of the imperial court, and his family background is not ungenerous.

In contrast, even Yuan Shao and Cao Cao were not assigned to the old central army of the Han Dynasty at that time, and they both started by relying on local armies.

And the only strong soldier in the Xuzhou army who can compete with the old department of Yuan Shu's Northern Army is the Danyang soldiers.

It's a pity that Liu Bei's direct descendant Danyang soldiers have never exceeded four or five thousand people for many years.

However, the main force of the Danyang soldiers left by Tao Qian, the commander of the army is still Cao Bao.

This time, with Zhang Fei killing Cao Bao and Cao Bao's old department defecting to Lu Bu, he sacrificed his next pit.

The part of the Danyang soldiers who stayed in the rear to guard the house was also completely out of Liu Bei's control.

Liu Bei can still mobilize now, there are only 3,000 Danyang soldiers, 1,000 Youzhou cavalry brought from his hometown, and 10,000 local ordinary soldiers in Xuzhou.

The situation is dire to the extreme.

……

"This is the case, our army has 12,000 people stationed in Huaiyin County, and 2,000 people are scattered in Haixi County and other places in the rear.

The 40,000 Yuan army could not be combined in one place due to the difficulty of food and grass supply, so they marched into two routes.

The main force of more than 25,000 people, along the Huai River from Xuyi, the commander of the army will be Ji Ling, and there are other generals Liang Gang and Le.

On the other hand, more than 15,000 people went east along the Yangtze River from Lujiang County, to Guangling County, Yangzhou, and went north into Hangou.

Today, Ji Ling has gone to the west of the city and harassed the north of the city with cavalry.

Liu Xunbu is estimated to be able to reach Huaiyin in a few days due to a long detour, and it is not surprising that most of them will go down to the south of the city and threaten the southeast side of our country.

I originally planned to rely on Huaiyin Jiancheng to hold on, and when the veterans of Ji Ling and Liu Xunshi were tired, I would try to counterattack. But now the grain and grass in the rear of Xiapi are cut off, and the surplus grain in the city is less than a month.

What's more, once Yuan Jun also learned the news that Xiapi was captured by Lu Bu, his morale would inevitably be high. It is impossible for our army to wait for the opportunity for Yuan Shu's demoralization to be low, and there is no hope for each other.

Gongyou and Zizhong persuaded me to seize the opportunity of these few days, take advantage of Liu Xun's arrival, and concentrate my forces to make a desperate bet, if I can defeat Ji Ling first, maybe there will be a turnaround - I don't know what Mr. thinks? ”

Liu Bei explained in great detail, and Zhuge Jin also listened very carefully.

These details were not recorded in his previous life, whether he watched "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" or "Romance of the Three Kingdoms", he could only learn and analyze them through Liu Bei's channel.

The place names mentioned by Liu Bei, Zhuge Jin also looked carefully at the map to confirm the correspondence between ancient and modern.

In the Eastern Han Dynasty, "Guangling County" was Yangzhou City in later generations, and "Huaiyin County" corresponded to Huai'an City.

Guangling County was still in Liu Xuan's hands last year, but it was later captured by Sun Ce and handed over to Yuan Shu.

Including Hailing, which is next door to Guangling County, corresponds to Taizhou in the later generations, and it was also fought by Sun Ce for Yuan Shu.

Liu Xun's men and horses along the way were equivalent to attacking north along the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal in later generations. (Note: A map will be attached at the end of this chapter)

After Zhuge Jin thoroughly figured out the details of these troop deployments, he thought about it for a long time, and then cautiously gave his opinion:

"With all due respect, I thought there was something wrong with that.

The general should not be demanding that 'Ji Ling has arrived and Liu Xun has not arrived' in the past few days, and forcibly organize a counterattack.

Instead, we should consider blocking the four gates of Huaiyin, holding each other for a few more days, and then trying to attack after the enemy army slackens. ”

When Liu Bei suddenly heard this, an expression of disbelief flashed instinctively.

But Zhuge Jin had already prophesied once, and after Liu Bei calmed down, he still controlled his emotions and decided to believe him again, so he sincerely asked:

"Why do you say that, sir? Since ancient times, the art of war has pursued the concentration of troops and the defeat of each enemy.

Our army is already small in numbers, shouldn't we seize the enemy's fighter planes that have not yet assembled and are weak? ”

Zhuge Jin was not in a hurry, took a pen and pointed to a few points on the map to explain:

"Xiapi is two hundred and forty miles away from Huaiyin, and it is reached along the Surabaya River. Zhang Duwei, when did you lose Xiapi? When did you rush back to Huaiyin to report the news? ”

Zhang Fei on the side was suddenly asked, and he was a little cramped.

He had just caused a big disaster, and Zhengjue had no face to see people, even if he was questioned by a civilian, he could only answer obediently:

"I found out that Cao Bao was mistreating in the middle of the night the day before yesterday, and I had to lead the troops to kill him. I only hate my lack of prestige, and I don't have the heart of Danyang soldiers.

After Cao Bao's death, Xu Tan and other Danyang military generals were afraid that I would liquidate, refused to defend the White Gate Tower, and delayed until Lu Bu came from Xiaopei and took him into the city.

I tried to fight them, but I was outnumbered and forced to flee before noon.

After another day and a night of escaping, he rushed to Huaiyin at night. ”

Zhang Fei 1510 said in great detail, and from his narrative, you can also hear some points worth overturning:

Zhang Fei in history left Pi, which had nothing to do with "making mistakes after drinking and whipping Lu Bu's father-in-law".

Cao Bao was not Lu Bu's father-in-law at all, he was dissatisfied with Liu Bei's rule, so he spontaneously wanted to take the opportunity to rebel.

And Zhang Fei's fault is mainly that after discovering the mutiny, he failed to subdue other Danyang veteran generals with thunder in time, but it has nothing to do with drinking and beating people.

Zhuge Jin didn't care much about these details, and after he got the key details he wanted from Zhang Fei's statement, he immediately turned to Liu Bei to explain:

"Zhang Duwei lost the Xiapi yesterday morning, and now he has arrived here, which shows that the distance between the two places is too close, and the person who is fast and the person who is slow is not enough to open up the time difference.

Therefore, I estimate that if Ji Ling is faster, he will be able to get this news in the second half of the night.

In this way, its morale will inevitably be high, and if you want to attack again, Ji Ling will be able to fight to the death without retreating.

Moreover, he will strengthen his confidence because of this, and conclude that the sneak attack on Xiapi is real, and it is definitely not a false information deliberately spread by our army, so our army is eager to fight.

In contrast, if you stand still. Maybe Ji Ling will be suspicious and suspicious, worried that the so-called 'Xiapi has a loss' is a strategy to lure the enemy to show weakness, or fake news to catch the wind and shadows.

He may be suspicious for the first few days, but when Liu Xun joins him a few days later, their vigilance will be relaxed to the extreme.

After all, according to the common sense of the art of war, before they have joined the division, the general does not dare to take the initiative to seek battle or rob the camp, so how can they attack after they have succeeded in their division?

When the time comes, the general will take advantage of his slack and go the opposite way, and there may be a glimmer of life. This so-called art of war is real and real. ”

Liu Bei listened quietly, did not interrupt, just tugged at the mustache on his lips, and pulled it off with so much force.

After listening to this, Sun Gan on the side pondered repeatedly, and always felt that this strategy was too risky, but he couldn't see any benefits, so he couldn't help but say worriedly:

"Sir's concern that Ji Ling might be wary of it makes sense.

But just for such a small gap in psychological morale, it may not be too variable, isn't it too worthless?

Our army is already short of food and herbs, and even if the enemy army is repelled in this battle, it will not be able to get supplies immediately.

It is always necessary to transfer to Haixi County in the rear of the army, or forcibly capture a certain grain stronghold of Yuan Shujun's army, in order to completely overcome the difficulties of life and death.

The lord must keep enough food and grass for these rear recruits, otherwise even if he wins the battle for a while, the army will still be exhausted.

Moreover, it is also very difficult to block the bad news of the sneak attack on Xia Pi by our soldiers.

If you can seal it for a day or two, if you want to seal it for four or five days or even longer, maybe there will be mistakes.

Once the bad news is leaked and the morale of the army collapses, there will be no chance to fight to the death again. ”

When Sun Qian elaborated on his concerns, Zhuge Jin also did not interrupt, but took a pen very gracefully, and made some simple notes on the waste paper to summarize the other party's arguments.

After the analysis was clear, Zhuge Jin methodically stretched out a finger:

"I will dismantle the doubts you mentioned one by one, starting with the issue of military rations.

You also said that to ensure that the army does not collapse, it is not enough to win the battle in front of you. I have to transfer to Haixi, or storm a Yuan army's grain stronghold-

So may I ask, how much grain is there in Haixi County? If the army passes, how long will it be enough to eat? ”

Sun Qian himself is engaged in Hu Cao, and he answered this question in response:

"Haixi is located at the mouth of the Huai River, which is not a place where soldiers must fight, and there are only more than 1,000 garrisons in peacetime, so there is no special stockpiling of grain......

The surplus food there should be enough for the local garrison to feed for three or five months. If the main force goes, the number of people will skyrocket tenfold, and it is estimated that it will only be half a month. ”

"This is a drop in the bucket, and the army consumes more than half of the energy on the way to and from the road,"

Zhuge Jin pointed out very decisively, "So, in fact, we have only one choice, that is, after winning the field battle, we must capture another Yuan army's grain stronghold as a foundation, and there is no other way." ”

Sun Qian did not hesitate this time, and immediately nodded helplessly.

Zhuge Jin continued to press step by step: "So where do you think this 'must be attacked' enemy army to store grain?" ”

Sun Qian was stunned for a moment, unable to answer immediately.

He thought carefully for a while, and looked at the map repeatedly, before he said solemnly:

"Only the west and south sides of our army are Yuan Shu's territory, if we can break the enemy in the field, the follow-up is nothing more than to follow the enemy's way to cover up.

Therefore, there is no third choice to either take Xuyi, where Ji Ling sent troops, or Guangling County, where Liu Xun sent troops.

And Xuyi was given up in an orderly manner by our army only a few days ago, there was no surplus food in the city, and Ji Ling's own military rations had to be transported from Huailing further upstream.

However, Guangling County, where Liu Xun sent troops, was captured by Sun Ce from Liu Xun last year and then transferred to Yuan Shu. Liu Xun should have some savings there.

Therefore, counterattacking Guangling County and seizing local surplus grain to feed troops should be the only way for our army to survive. ”

Sun Qian and the others didn't think so far ahead, they just wanted to win the field battle in front of them first, and take one step at a time.

At this moment, being guided by Zhuge Jin to think step by step, they took a slightly longer-term view and were able to look at the problem from the perspective of the overall situation.

And Liu Bei didn't finally confirm until he heard this:

It is not enough to win the upcoming field battle in front of us.

The follow-up field battle, and the battle to recapture a grain station, these two battles will be one.

It only makes sense to win both games, and losing either of them is enough to completely lose his army and turf.

So when he makes decisions, he must also consider them holistically.

You should never use the short-sighted trick that makes the first sub-campaign relatively easier to win, but will make the second sub-campaign harder.

Zhuge Jin waited for their brains to digest and absorb these twists and turns, and then continued to analyze in an orderly manner:

"It can be seen from this that if according to Gongyou's strategy, he will attack Ji Ling first tomorrow, even if he has won the results of various defeats, so what?

Once Ji Ling's army is defeated, Liu Xun, who is still at least two days away from Huaiyin, will he dare to continue to go north?

At that time, Liu Xun will definitely become a frightened bird, and immediately retract back to Guangling County and stay behind closed doors!

And then what do we do? Then chase Baba to Guangling City and attack?

We only have 20 military rations, and when we get there, we have to build siege equipment, how long will it take to take the city?

As soon as the siege runs out, the army will immediately crumble!

And I advised the general not to be impatient, and to wait for Liu Xun and Ji Ling to meet smoothly and when their vigilance was at the lowest point.

In this way, there is a chance to weaken Ji Ling and Liu Xun at the same time in the field at one time.

Then he bit the remnants of Liu Xun to death, chased them to capture Guangling, or conspired to take advantage of the chaos to deceive the city.

Isn't this much more certain than directly attacking a fortified city with sufficient troops? ”

When Zhuge Jin said this, Liu Bei and Sun Qian finally became completely enlightened.

They had to admit that if they only looked at the first of the two goals of "field warfare" and "seizing grain", Zhuge Jin's strategy was indeed risky compared to Sun Qian.

But if these two goals are evaluated as a whole and must be fully realized, then Zhuge Jin's plan is already much better than Sun Gan's.

Since Liu Xun is their target that must be severely damaged or even eliminated, it is obviously much less difficult to eliminate in the home field battle outside Huaiyin County than in the away siege battle in Guangling County.

Liu Bei's eyes changed several times, and then he froze on perseverance and decisiveness.

He took a few deep breaths, and suddenly pulled out his twin swords, slashing off the two corners of the bookcase.

"I've made up my mind! Just follow Ziyu's strategy! In the past few days, the city gates have been closed, all internal and external exchanges have been forbidden, and all news has been blocked. Dare to pass on the loss of Pi and behead immediately!

Wait for Liu Xun to go north and meet Ji Ling smoothly! Then it's time to make a desperate bet and fight to the death! ”

Seeing this, Zhuge Jin was finally relieved: it seems that he is finally going to start changing history.

According to the "Chronicles of the Three Kingdoms", the war of Liu Yuan ended with "the army collapsed when he went south to attack Guangling".

Extrapolating from this, Liu Bei in history should have also won the battle of Huaiyin with Ji Ling in front of him.

Because otherwise, he wouldn't even have the opportunity to touch the city wall of Guangling County in the future, and if he lost the first battle, he would be directly gone.

It's just that Liu Bei in history, because he was poor and short-minded, he didn't have the conditions to see too far, and he didn't have the conditions to plan the overall situation, and finally ended up slowly in the process of seeking stability.

Since Zhuge Jin knew that the result of seeking stability was ten deaths, of course he had to instigate Liu Bei to make a big bet.

Although the risk is still huge, it may be possible to fight seven deaths and three lives, or even five or five.

This is better than "even if you win the first battle, you can only sit back and wait for the second battle".

——

PS: 5,000 words chapter, ask for collection, ask for votes, ask for chasing, and complain. From tomorrow, the two shifts will be resumed.