Chapter 261: Wargame Deduction
Before you know it, it's Sunday.
Li Yuan didn't go out in the past two days, after all, his parents were looking for him.
Ever since they knew about Zhou Ranran's affairs, there was a problem with their mentality.
Li Wanhe didn't want to go back at all, so he made an excuse to go out for a walk, but in fact he went to the hospital to see the child.
He couldn't show it yet, so he could only continue to make excuses, saying that he was chatting with Zhou Youfang.
That's his grandson after all, and it's impossible to say that he doesn't care.
Zhou Juan can only take care of Jiang Yiling at home most of the time, and both sides are the meat of her heart, so she has no choice.
Of course, the most important thing is to call him back, the old couple estimated that they had discussed some methods, but they never saw him.
When he woke up in the afternoon, before he was ready to eat, Chen Jie said, "There will be a guest at home later, it's inconvenient for me to stay here...... Well...... So I'm going to eat late. ”
Li Yuan, who had just woken up, was not hungry, but he was very curious, who was coming, and Chen Jie had to avoid it?
Isn't she from Tang Jianjun's side?
"Who's coming?"
"You'll know later, ten minutes at most, I'll brew you a cup of soy milk first, and I'll definitely be back in an hour or two."
Li Yuan frowned and whispered.
The identity of the person who came must be extremely special, and Chen Jie has no way to stay here.
may be a little higher than Tang Jianjun......
A few minutes later, Chen Jie answered the phone, delivered the soy milk to Li Yuan, and left.
After a few more minutes, the door was opened, and Li Yuan saw a little old man walking in from the outside with two people.
It's just that the two sides didn't greet each other for the first time, and the people brought by the other party checked the entire room and used some instruments.
It took ten minutes to check, and it wasn't until Li Yuan finished drinking the soy milk and the two people in charge of the inspection left that the two sides officially said the first sentence.
Li Yuan said: "I really didn't think that you would come here in person. ”
"I've always wanted to meet you, but I'm not looking for a chance. I happened to pass through Jiangzhou this time, and it happened to be a coincidence......"
Li Yuan said softly: "Whoever makes the rules is a coincidence for whom. I'm a young and vigorous person, if you say something that doesn't like it, don't take it to heart, sooner or later I will be beaten by society, and I will slowly mature. ”
Although there are some surprises today, it is still reasonable.
There are not many people who can make Chen Jie avoid, and if you think about it, you can guess it.
The little old man in front of him is the real God of Wealth.
The money handled every year starts from more than a trillion yuan.
After the God of Wealth sat down, he said with a smile: "Look at what you said, I didn't come to play music with you, what do you don't listen to?" But what you just said is very good, and only those who make the rules can talk about coincidences. If you can't make rules, you can only go along with it. I think you're the kind of person who can make rules......"
Li Yuan still didn't understand what this God of Wealth wanted to do with him.
He is not a person in the system, and with the stain on his body, he will never want to enter in this life.
"You overestimate me too much, I can also play in individual stocks, fight with so many people, the real game field, I don't deserve it."
To put it bluntly, playing stocks only needs to figure out what others are thinking in the next second, but great power games often have to think about what others will do in the next few years.
It's basically impossible to guess exactly right, but even if you only guess a general direction, it can be very scary.
After all, between the great powers, it is not about tens of billions of dollars of gains and losses, but more about things that cannot be measured by money.
The God of Wealth smiled and said, "Actually, it's nothing, the whole is pretty much the same." What is the saying? If you don't fight for the day, how can you be chronicled? ”
Li Yuan: "??? Is there such a sentence? ”
"Haha, it means pretty much. You must have enough understanding of their system when you are in the U.S. stock market, can you ask your opinion on U.S. stocks? ”
Li Yuan: "There is nothing special about U.S. stocks, they are just a qualified reservoir. This is also its biggest advantage, after all, the so-called financial attributes, isn't it to find ways to reasonably leverage funds. ”
The God of Wealth nodded and continued to ask, "Then you are optimistic about U.S. stocks?" ”
"There's nothing optimistic about it, and it doesn't matter much to me whether the market is good or bad."
"Huh? The market is better, but isn't it more profitable? ”
"There is a lot of money in the market, and in general, I am most afraid that the market is not good or bad, and in the same way, my opponent is also ......"
The God of Wealth was stunned for a moment, and what Li Yuan said was obvious.
That is, the US stock market will not go on like this forever, either down or up.
Now this market is not a decline, it is only a normal retracement.
If the U.S. stock market wants to fall by 30 or 40 points, unless there is a systemic risk, even if it raises interest rates, it will hover around 10 or 20 points at most.
Fifteen years ago, U.S. stocks were in a cycle of interest rate hikes. There was a retracement, and there was a gap, and there was no downward movement overall.
Except for the one in '08.
Li Yuan's meaning is probably that the US stock market will rise.
And what is the logic of the rise?
I can't think of anything else except the release of the dollar.
Global deflation has forced beautiful countries to launch a trade war in order to bring manufacturing back.
After raising interest rates in previous years, although the dollar has been declining in the past two years, liquidity has not been able to rise, and they are eager to let the dollar flow, and manufacturing is the biggest direction.
The local manufacturing industry in the beautiful country has been running out in recent years.
At first, they only wanted to get low-end manufacturing to developing countries, but as they did, they found that finance came faster and the service industry was better.
Then the mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry also began to slowly drain away.
Over the years, their high-end manufacturing industry has only been supported by dozens of companies. Even so, those high-end manufacturing industries are still being impacted by the Chinese manufacturing industry.
And their two experience baby foot basin chicken and south stick, because of the decline in the share of high-end manufacturing, there is no way to inject fresh blood into them.
So that's how their list of entities came out.
The A-share bears didn't look at it, and the trading volume of the two cities once fell to 400 billion.
It's already May and there's no sign of getting better.
The God of Wealth sighed and said, "If the dollar is released, it will be difficult for global assets...... We're either going to let it go, or we're going to have to suffer the pain of currency appreciation......"
"Hmm."
Li Yuan did not express an opinion, and this matter had nothing to do with him.
However, the God of Wealth is very right, the release of the US dollar is not good news for Huaxia.
Follow the water? There is a lack of reservoirs in the country, so where does the water flow go?
Continuing to build infrastructure? Real estate?
Housing prices can no longer rise, and if they continue to rise, once the bubble is burst, it will instantly trigger systemic risks.
Even now, they have reached a very delicate node, and many first-tier cities have begun to restrict purchases and sales......
Currency appreciation? That's even more uncomfortable!
China is the world's largest manufacturing country, if the currency appreciates, it is a black swan event for product exports, when exports shrink, the national economic depression is possible.
The lesson from the past is the footbasin chicken of 30 years ago, a square agreement......
The content of the Plaza Accord was to demand that their currency appreciate, and at first, the people of the footpot chicken felt that this was good news, and the money in their hands was even more valuable.
But within a few months, they found that their products were not selling.
After the currency appreciates, others need to pay a greater cost if they want to import their products, which is equivalent to importing things more expensive.
If it's expensive, you lose the market.
If the market is lost, the company will naturally lay off employees, and then superimpose their original real estate bubble, and after the layoffs, the real estate bubble will eventually burst, triggering systemic financial risks.
To put it bluntly, they are the experience babies of the beautiful country, and the beautiful country has a way to harvest them.
The God of Wealth was a little disappointed when he saw Li Yuan's attitude.
said: "Li Yuan, just the two of us today, let's talk freely...... Otherwise, let's assume that the dollar is released, what should China do to stabilize the basic market, why don't we have a war game? ”
Li Yuan said with a dark face: "You overestimate me too much, I don't know what wargame deduction is, I can't even play chess." ”
Is it appropriate to ask him an outsider about this kind of thing?
If something goes wrong in the future, you might think he's a traitor.
He did not want to discuss the issue of secrecy.
"Actually, it's very simple, it's nothing more than a simulation of a scene, why don't I start?"
"I haven't eaten yet."
"Long story short, I'll treat you to dinner later."
"No, no, no, it's not appropriate. I'm a naturally strong person, so I can't let others think that I've achieved my current results, it's because of relationships, right? ”
“???”
This kid is too sensitive.
"You kid don't go in with oil and salt, do you? I'll tell you the truth, I can come here today to bring something with me! If you don't hand over some dry goods, this is not the end of the matter! ”
When Li Yuan heard this, he took out his mobile phone and said, "Then I'll make a recording." ”
"What are you doing with the recording?"
"Let's put it aside, this matter has nothing to do with me, I was forced to answer some questions."
For Li Yuan, it must be good to chat, at least the road in the future will be much smoother.
It's just that the issue of risk has to be considered, and if he is allowed to take risks, he would rather not say it.
The little old man squinted his eyes and didn't stop Li Yuan.
He wanted to see what Li Yuan could say.
They are not without rehearsals for a rate hike in the dollar, they have been planning it since five years ago, and they are already implementing the first steps.
If Li Yuan could see this step, even if he had the ability.
After Li Yuan got it right, he said: "Then let's just assume that the dollar is released, is it better for us to appreciate the currency or follow the release?" ”
"Of course, it's a two-pronged approach, because no matter how much we release water, we can't let go of the dollar, people are global currencies, and there is enough market to accommodate 10 trillion and 20 trillion yuan. If we release tens of trillions of water, tomorrow we will have to sell a green onion for fifty yuan. ”
The release of water will inevitably bring inflation, there is more money on the market, the product is fixed, and the demand is fixed.
In order to absorb this money, everything will go up in price.
When the time comes, go to the second floor of the bathing center to ask for a 1999 package, which is enough to soak in a big pool, and want to go to a private room? There are no doors.
After all, a lot of people are willing to go out of 19999 to go to a private room.
Invisibly, the currency will depreciate.
Or a significant depreciation.
Once something happens again, the money is no different from waste paper.
At that time, prices will be very chaotic and all the problems will erupt.
Li Yuan was not polite when he spoke, and when the other party asked him this kind of question, he was destined to only get such a response.
It's like asking a math professor what 1+1 is.
The God of Wealth didn't care, but continued to ask: "Two prongs, is there anything to say?" How should we grasp the degree of this? ”
"I shouldn't think about this question."
"In this case, let's not talk about appreciation, this is a little simpler, and the operation is not complicated. But it's not that easy to release water, where should the water go? What about inflow into real estate? After all, the only thing that can store water in China is real estate. ”
Li Yuan: "There is no point in flowing into real estate, and those who should get on the real estate train have already gotten on it." If you don't deserve it, you won't get any dividends in your life, but you will become the object of oppression. ”
"Where is that supposed to go? Stock market? ”
"If you want to flow into the stock market, you should first kick out some of the foreign capital inside, and then talk about it, and you must rectify the entire industry, otherwise the big head will be eaten by foreign funds after all, because those domestic financial institutions are dead licking dogs, and there is no use for fart, they only know how to follow others and shout, others are full of food and drink, and he is satisfied with rewarding him with a bone."
Li Yuan's words were sharper than before.
However, the meaning is obvious, if the stock market wants to be used as a reservoir, it must first kick out those who are not firm in their position, so as not to do bad things halfway.
The God of Wealth said: "Even so, in fact, the vast majority of people can't enjoy the dividends of putting water in the stock market. ”
Li Yuan said: "This is another problem, first kick out the moths, then talk about distribution." ”
"As far as what you said today, once it gets out, I'm afraid you won't have a place in the country. So don't record it, I'm afraid you'll accidentally pass it out. ”
Li Yuan said with a smile: "It's okay, if the content of the country is not good, I will go abroad, and I won't be able to mix a mouthful of food anywhere." ”
“……”
He found out that Li Yuan was really like what he said at the beginning, and he didn't like to speak.
But he didn't come this time to listen to anything good.
So he continued to ask: "Then if you release water in the stock market, do you know what will happen to the property market?" ”
"Well, plunge ......"
Once the stock market starts to rise and there is a long-term market, then some of the funds in the property market will pour in, causing the property market to crash.
But Li Yuan then said: "Isn't there already a purchase restriction and a sales restriction?" Just lock yourself inside. It's just that the current purchase and sale restrictions are not very large, and it is best to go directly to the end, so that the price of new houses is upside down, and second-hand houses cannot be sold. It doesn't matter if you can't sell a few sets, as long as you don't make a deal, the funds can only stay in the property market honestly. Isn't that what you've been planning for a long time? It started a few years ago...... This is also to be asked? ”
(End of chapter)