Everyone's overall income has also continued to increase, and they are full of confidence in the future. All in all, whether it is the production side or the sales side, whether it is investment or consumption, it is showing an upward trend. But can these phenomena really be sustained? “

"Can't!" There were students in the audience shouting.

"That's right! The economy has cycles, and this time will come sooner or later. The pandemic has accelerated this process, and it has also caused the debt problem to lead to an economic crisis in advance, or the economic crisis has caused the debt problem. “

"Some people say that we are going through the biggest changes in a century, the worst economic crisis in recent decades, how do we face this headwind?"

"Is it to boost consumption?"

"Obviously powerless, in the rapid development of more than 20 years, many economic transformations and distribution of overlapping evolution, the most extensive group of people in the real income is seriously insufficient, at the same time there is a phenomenon is that the family asset allocation structure is seriously deformed, resulting in a mismatch of family debt and family income structure, that is, high debt and a single income, resulting in in economic shocks, debt is higher than income."

"So the core of the problem is not the reluctance to consume, but the lack of income, forming an objective reality that wants to consume but cannot afford to consume. Coupled with the impact caused by the change in the direction of the external environment, macroeconomic control must also have cards to play, why did we have a stronger resistance to the economic crisis in the past? Liu Hao said, looked at everyone, saw that everyone was thoughtful, and took a sip of the teacup.

"Comparing the financial crisis of '98 with the current situation, IMF data shows that during the outbreak of the Asian crisis in '98, the G7, dominated by the West, accounted for 47% of the total real purchasing power parity GDP of all mankind, close to 50%."

"In the early days of the outbreak, all the risks were triggered within the new economies, whose real GDP growth declined much higher than that of the developed countries. In 1997, global real GDP growth increased by 0.3 percent, developed countries by 0.6 percent, and emerging economies by 0.2 percent. By 1998, GDP growth had fallen by 0.9 percent in advanced countries and by 2.7 percent in emerging economies. From the data, it can be seen that at the macro level, the new economies have been severely damaged, while the developed countries have been unharmed. “

"At that time, in order to get closer to the developed countries, we agreed that the Chinese dollar would not depreciate against the US dollar, stimulate foreign exports, carry out large-scale infrastructure construction internally, maintain the integrity of the industrial system, and ruthlessly lay off workers to reduce the burden, and finally got through the difficulties. However, after the subprime mortgage crisis in 08, Europe and the United States have fully entered a financially dominated economic environment, with a large-scale decline in real purchasing power and GDP, while the new economies have entered a high growth lane driven by the BRICS countries. As of 2018, the G7's share of global real purchasing power in GDP fell to 34.7%, a full decline of 12.3%. “

According to the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, real growth in more than 90% of advanced economies will shrink to 1.5% in 2023, while emerging economies will remain around 4.0%, with Asia likely to rise to 5.3%. Against this backdrop, external demand has been negative for three consecutive quarters of our economic growth. In this case, the path taken in '97 is no longer sustainable, and the tactics of moving closer to the developed countries can no longer provide us with effective support. “

"So how do we get out of this situation?"

"Insufficient domestic consumption power, limited export support capacity, and real estate, the main pillar of the economy, are facing huge risks due to disorderly expansion and over-reliance on land finance, resulting in imbalances. At present, we do not have an inherent path to follow, and the problems we face are slightly more difficult, and we may face problems that go far beyond that. Well, I think the real shock is just beginning. “

"Our unemployment rate remains high, which has seriously affected people's livelihood, in fact, we are caught in a bubble trap, the bigger the bubble, the more correct, and the higher the probability of bursting. When the economy is good, it has not been converted into the renewal of the real economy, but only catalyzed the crazy rise of the property market, but no one is vigilant, and the price increase will inevitably take more risks, which will eventually lead to a serious imbalance in income and expenditure. And then drag down the economic system and the financial system completely? Once asset prices collapse, the market that has been built up so hard is bound to be in mourning. “

"The Fed has raised interest rates by as much as 5.5%, and we have cut interest rates by 1.75%, interest rate inversions have been formed, and a large amount of international hot money offshore is also imminent. Throughout any cycle of the US dollar, there are three phases: interest rate cuts, interest rate hikes, and rate cuts again. The first interest rate cut and depreciation was to push up the foreign capital injection and leverage ratio of the new economy, causing imported inflation. “

"Then raise interest rates, withdraw hot money, cause local deflation, detonate a financial crisis in a certain region, and then drag more regions into the water, and then the dollar copys, bloodbaths thunderstorm assets at the lowest price, and completes the harvest."

"But at the moment, there is the BRICS, and the biggest piece of ice is us. Therefore, if we want to complete the harvest, we must crush our social and economic confidence and drive a wedge between the BRICS alliance. “

……

"Professor Liu Hao, I would like to ask, is middle income a trap proposition?" A student asked, standing up.

"The middle-income trap is not a law of economics, it's just a phenomenon where there is a lingering period when a person goes from low to middle income. It's like becoming an employee, going through the process of being promoted to management, and even going to the next level, becoming an executive, but if you want to become an entrepreneur, it's more difficult. Is this period, which I call the wandering period, related to income? “

"Relevant!"

"Yes, you're right, it's about income, but income here is just a concomitant. You have the ability to work, but what about your mind and vision? Has it been improved accordingly? The mind here is not juvenile righteousness, when you have the mind and vision, you still need one thing, just like Cao Cao's tiger and leopard ride, you will not be blown away by a gust of wind, so you need time to precipitate. ”

Another student raised his hand, Liu Hao pointed at him, nodded, and the student asked a question: "Professor Liu, I would like to ask if the Chinese civilization has made many important contributions to the development of human science and technology for thousands of years, but why did the scientific and industrial revolution not occur in modern China?" ”

"Some people say it's the system, some people say it's culture, I think it's the concept and the ideal. Some cite that Europe also had its darkest moments, and the imperial power did not suppress science and innovation; Some people say that our culture pursues the unity of nature and man, and the combination becomes a musical note, and the directiveness is too strong, and the real innovation needs to be released by heaven, which is the soil of freedom, and it is the cause and coincidence in countless random processes; Some people also ask the question of the century, why can't Chinese universities train outstanding talents? ”

"But no one ever wondered, what was our emperor thinking? His role is like an intelligence center, balancing the opinions of ministers, and because there are too many affairs, the emperor can only choose important things to give instructions; What is in mind of our minister? The whole bureaucracy is too broadly managed, but the initiative and the spirit of daring to be the first in the world are far from sufficient, but because it is bloated and ossified, the local officials do not care about long-term development, but mainly focus on calming things down, and everywhere is full of passivity, the spirit of self-preservation; Merchants are subject to the government, they are more like compradors of the government, and they are not adventurous; Those who have the ability to innovate, that is, what our cultural people think, they rarely consider the practical problems in agriculture and commerce, and most of them are influenced by Confucianism, flaunting self-cultivation, looking forward to gaining fame through the imperial examination, and the idea of learning and excelling is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people; What do the people at the bottom think? The local elite mainly relied on agricultural production, which belonged to the introverted model of agriculture rather than the expansion model, coupled with the long-term surplus of labor and the lack of motivation for technological innovation, the toiling masses could barely make ends meet, and it was even more difficult to survive in disaster years. The whole society only focuses on throttling, and does not encourage open source, and there is a lack of business models in the mind. Second, science, technology and innovation have not been institutionalized and are ignored by all. Also, why can't our universities cultivate outstanding talents, so I want to ask, where do the talents cultivated by universities go? Knowing this, I think we should have the answer to why we didn't innovate, right? ”

"In addition, our literati pursue practicality, rather than exploring the unknown; The essence of science is to seek knowledge, just as the ancient Greek atmosphere is to seek knowledge, the pursuit of understanding the world, the transformation of the world, then many civilizations influenced by the ancient Greek civilization also correspondingly have the attribute of seeking knowledge, the dream is the sea of stars, and what about us? “

"Our dream is fame and fortune, learning and excellence, helping the world, returning to the mountains and forests, and pursuing peace of mind."

……

After Liu Hao finished class, he hurriedly returned to the place where Xia Meng recuperated.

Xia Qing was not there, only the medical staff were there, Liu Hao asked the medical staff not to disturb him, so he walked into Xia Meng's room and closed the door.

After concentrating for a few seconds, Liu Hao made a move and pierced more than a dozen silver needles into Xia Meng's body.

The silver needle emitted a silvery-white light, and it posed a wonderful formation on Xia Meng's body.

And Liu Hao continued to drop the needle.

The next needles all fell on Xia Meng's head.

Forehead, side forehead, celestial spirit cover......

If there are others present at the position where the needles are dropped, it will be shocking.

In an instant, Xia Meng's originally extremely weak breathing suddenly became firm and calm at this moment. His face began to change rapidly, and his body trembled slightly.

After waiting for more than ten minutes, Liu Hao's hand suddenly brushed over the surface of Xia Meng's body like a wicker.