Chapter 649: Preparation for Passing on the Crisis
William's actions in London are clear to Arthur, and he naturally understands the fact that the London stock market is about to collapse.
This time can be very long or short, and it can be controlled not only artificially but also laissez-faire.
If there is human intervention, the crisis in the London stock market should be able to be delayed for several years, which is the real reason why a large number of conglomerates have not yet withdrawn, after all, the stock market still has several years to make money, and the British government will not let the stock market collapse.
And Arthur would rather see the economic crisis erupt in the United States than the economic crisis in London.
After all, the wheel of history cannot be changed, and Americans are larger and more likely to withstand the harm caused by the economic crisis.
Arthur is already seriously considering, but in the current world environment, if an economic crisis breaks out, what kind of impact and harm will it bring to various countries?
Because economic crises are unavoidable, they are inevitable laws of the capitalist market, and human control cannot be avoided, so they can only advance or postpone the time when economic crises erupt.
The economic market under capitalism is like a person, and the economic crisis is like the death of this person, which cannot be changed by current scientific and technological means.
It's just that the economic market will still recover, but after death, there will be nothing left of humanity.
Considering the impact of the economic crisis on each country, it is particularly important to have a large economic scale and the bubble under the economic scale.
As the two most populous cities, London and New York, the twin stars, undoubtedly have the largest economies.
London is backed by the entire British Empire, and New York is backed by the whole of the United States, both with a huge market support.
The reason why London was able to surpass New York was because most of the British colonial enterprises also went to London to go public, which increased the prosperity of London in disguise.
With the exception of London and New York, the stock markets are too small to affect the whole world at once.
This also means that if the economic crisis is to be minimized in Australasia, the economic crisis must erupt in the United States, as it has historically been, and perhaps there is only one answer, New York.
Because once the crisis breaks out in London, the major European stock markets will not be avoided. The destruction of Europe is huge, and the United States will smoothly become the world's number one power, and even without World War II, it will directly become that giant country.
This was something that Arthur simply could not accept. When the United States became strong, it was destined to cause trouble everywhere, which would destroy not only the British and French colonial system, but also Australasia's domination in the southern hemisphere and across the Pacific.
Even in the bold conjecture that if the economic crisis destroys Europe, and does not even require the baptism of war, Europe will directly lose its competitiveness.
Because the capital ties of European countries are quite close, once there is a problem in London, all European stock investors will be affected, most of Europe's industries will go bankrupt, and Europe's prosperity will come to an end.
"Your Majesty, I don't think we need to worry too much about the economic crisis, because our economic situation is different from that of Europe and the United States." At the cabinet meeting, Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt said to Arthur in a serious manner.
"What we should be worried about is the extreme contraction of imports and exports after the economic crisis, as well as the onset of the winter of international trade. I am afraid that at that time, except for some grain and meat trade, all our exports will be terminated, and all imports will not be able to be bought. ”
For today's world economy, the stronger the country, the less there is to avoid the impact of the economic crisis.
To take a simple example, a strong country will definitely occupy more markets and create more import and export trade.
However, the economic crisis, even if it does not affect itself, will reduce the purchasing power of other countries, and the volume of export trade will naturally shrink.
Not being able to sell things is also a heavy blow to the industry and industry of one's own country, because it is facing enterprises having to lay off employees and create a new wave of unemployment.
Can it be said that corporate layoffs at this time are unethical? If the company does not lay off employees, it will be the end of the enterprise.
The problem is that once companies begin to lay off workers en masse, people who quickly lose their jobs and sources of income will not only breed a flood of crime, but also increase dissatisfaction with the government.
How to deal with the impact of the economic malaise of other countries on Australasia's exports of goods is what Hunt believes Australasia should be worried about.
Arthur nodded, and what Hunter said was not much different from what Arthur had expected. Australasia's economy does not have a big bubble, and it is basically a real economic growth driven by various infrastructures.
Like those that are prone to bubbles in real estate, the stock market and finance, etc., Australasia has it, but it is far less serious.
Even Sydney and Melbourne, which have large populations, have not reached the scene of less land and more people like London.
The whole of Australasia is still in a state of vast land and sparse population, so naturally there is no shortage of land for self-built houses, and housing prices will naturally not rise too much.
As for those who speculate in the stock market, Australasia is not absent, but it is not as exaggerated as London.
The number of investors in the whole of Australasia is only a few hundred thousand, and the combined amount of money entering the Sydney and Melbourne stock markets every day is no more than a million Australian dollars, and even if the stock market crashes, the impact is not so great.
What's more, the stock market in Australasia is basically Australasian companies, and the number of foreign companies is very small, and the possibility of a crash is not great.
This is also because Australasia is too far away from Europe and the United States, and these companies have better options for listing in New York and London, and naturally will not choose Sydney or Melbourne, which are thousands of miles away.
Sydney and Melbourne are more attractive to Southeast Asian companies, with many European-founded rubber and mining companies, as well as a small number of agri-food companies, most of which choose to list on the Sydney or Melbourne stock markets.
Add to that the local Australasian companies, and that's what makes up the Australasian stock market.
Under the premise that the rubber industry is under control, it is almost impossible for the stock market in Australasia to collapse, after all, the size of the royal consortium is here, and Arthur cannot sit idly by and watch the collapse of the royal consortium and other consortiums.
Australasia's attempt to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis is simple: it only needs to reduce the share of production, provide some relief to those who are unemployed, and provide them with income and food through cash-for-work.
Judging by Australasia's grain and meat production, it is impossible for the country to collapse internally, let alone with Arthur in charge.
It is not an exaggeration to say that Australasia has been able to almost avoid the harm caused by the economic crisis, which is nothing more than a period of economic malaise.
However, out of consideration for the interests of the royal family, the economic crisis still has a certain impact on Australasia.
After all, William, the heir to the throne, has grown up, and he needs an opportunity like the economic crisis to brush up on his popularity and boost the public's favor with him.
Anyway, the economic crisis is within his control, so let William brush up his prestige under his control, and there is no need to worry about any accidents.
Even if the situation is uncontrollable in the future, with Arthur in charge, there is no need to worry about the serious impact on the economy of Australasia.
This paved the way for the next king, and no matter how high Arthur's prestige was, his reign could not last for hundreds of years.
The throne must be stabilized from generation to generation, which is essential for the development of the next generation, not only in terms of ability, but also in terms of prestige and status.
After determining that the economic crisis would not have much impact on Australasia, Arthur turned his attention to other countries, looked at Hunt, who had clearly grown, and asked: "If the economic crisis breaks out in the United States, what will be the impact on Europe now?" ”
Hunt pondered for a while before continuing: "Your Majesty, judging from the current industrial situation in Britain and France, they are bound to transfer most of the crisis to Germany after the outbreak of the economic crisis.
Long before, the Entente countries had placed some heavily polluting factories in Germany. This has allowed German industry to recover rapidly and the scale of German exports to grow.
When an economic crisis breaks out, Germany will be severely affected wherever it erupts. Based on the current number of British and French factories in Germany, at least a million German workers will be displaced, and the German economy will collapse overnight.
But if the economic crisis is not severe, perhaps they will try to eat it themselves. Especially for the British, who should also not want to see a collapsed Germany. ”
Arthur nodded, still satisfied with Hunter's conjecture. No country wants to bear a very serious crisis alone, and on the premise that the crisis can be passed on to other countries, Britain and France will definitely not hesitate to pass on the crisis.
After all, because of the repayment of loans, Britain and France transferred some of the heavily polluting industries.
Although these industries accelerated the recovery of German industry, they made the German economy more bound to Britain and France.
Once the economic crisis comes, it is simple for Britain and France to dump the blame on Germany. Although it will not completely escape the effects of the economic crisis, it is still okay to let the Germans bear the brunt of it, at least half of the damage caused by the economic crisis.
Because the essence of the economic crisis is that overcapacity makes a large number of industrial products backlogged, and too many products are backlogged, and the economy cannot recover it, resulting in a shortage of economic chains, and eventually causing enterprises to go bankrupt.
After the closure of enterprises, a large number of workers lost their jobs, and these workers and their families lacked income to buy daily necessities, and their spending power was reduced again, and they had no money to buy industrial products.
This goes on and on, forming a vicious circle, and this is the process of the economic crisis, and it is also a great crisis that cannot be avoided in the capitalist world.
There is no doubt that German industry is in a state of overcapacity, and every year it exports large quantities of cheap industrial products to Britain, France and other European countries.
If Britain and France take the initiative to reduce their share of imports, German industry will be devastated, and the number of unemployed people in Germany will definitely be in the millions.
Even Britain, which wants to support Germany against France, will definitely not hesitate to choose to transfer the crisis to Germany in the face of an economic crisis that can affect itself, after all, the most important thing is to protect itself.
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(End of chapter)