"The most important thing now is to make an efficient simulation model."

Zhao Bingzhi said with a hint of helplessness after saying that the existing model was not ideal.

The data basis of the existing ballistic missile flight trajectory prediction model is mainly derived from the DF-5.

Because this ballistic missile has been in service in China for a long time, the data from all sides have been explored very clearly.

Therefore, when building the model, the trajectory parameters of this missile were mainly referred to.

This is because the first batch of missiles that the domestic missile defense system will face will all be intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of more than 10,000 kilometers.

This is also an important reason why the parameters of the DF-5 ICBM were selected for simulation.

"What's the main problem?"

Zhang Xingyang didn't quite understand it, although this kind of ICBM can reach an ultra-high speed of about Mach 10 when it flies in the middle of the flight.

However, because these are all first-generation ICBMs, they are still parabolic in terms of ballistics, and because the problems of the missile defense system are not taken into account.

So in terms of mobile defense, no special developments were carried out.

Their main role is to deliver large-mass nuclear warheads to hostile cities.

And these are second-generation nuclear warheads with a yield of more than one million tons.

"The main reason is that the accuracy of the initial trajectory data parameters is not high."

The question actually came up a bit more than any of them expected.

For Zhao Bingzhi's team, they have never done this kind of work.

So when faced with this problem, I don't know how to deal with it.

And Zhang Xingyang didn't expect it, after all, the initial parameters in his mind were almost infallible.

But soon, Zhang Xingyang understood.

This question, in detail, is actually his own problem.

Because Zhao Bingzhi's initial trajectory data source is actually a reconnaissance satellite.

However, because there were no professional missile early warning satellites in China before.

Therefore, the deviation of the data source in this area is greater than everyone imagined.

At this time, the detection of ICBMs almost always relied on high-sensitivity infrared reconnaissance equipment, but the sensitivity and accuracy of infrared reconnaissance equipment on space satellites are not very high.

At this time, navigation satellites can achieve an accuracy of 10 meters, which is already very advanced in the world.

At present, whether it is the domestic Beidou satellite or the GPS satellite with the most extensive coverage, it can only achieve this level.

But for missile trajectory prediction, this accuracy is simply too low.

You know, the diameter of ICBMs is much larger than those with a range of only a few thousand kilometers.

But it is also only three or four meters in diameter.

In order for the anti-missile system to accurately hit the target, it requires a minimum prediction accuracy of two meters.

Otherwise, it will be difficult to directly destroy the warhead of the incoming missile.

This puts forward higher requirements for the accuracy of the data of the missile during takeoff.

It's like walking on flat ground, even if the initial angle is only one degree, but when you go out for a kilometer, there will be a huge difference.

Therefore, for the missile prediction model, the deviation of the initial data is too large, and it is almost impossible to get an accurate trajectory.

However, after thinking about this, Zhang Xingyang was also helpless:

"There is no way to solve the problem of data accuracy for you for the time being."

"It will take at least half a year for our high-sensitivity infrared reconnaissance satellite to be developed."

"That's when I put a lot of pressure on the Satellite Institute."

"Even if the satellite is successfully developed, it will take at least one or two months from launch to official use."

"So during this time, it's almost impossible for you to get more accurate actual data."

This is because the anti-missile prediction model must be based on a large amount of actual data.

Therefore, it is difficult to establish a standard model without sufficiently accurate actual emission data.

It is like the development of nuclear weapons, although in the twenty-first century, every country in the world has stopped nuclear testing.

But it's based on the fact that you've collected enough data over the last 50 years through dozens, hundreds, even thousands of atmospheric nuclear tests or underground nuclear tests.

It has been possible to build experimental models with sufficient accuracy to develop new nuclear warheads with supercomputers that have been calculated hundreds of billions of times.

Those countries that want to develop nuclear warheads without conducting nuclear experiments and just by computer calculations can only say that such good things exist only in dreams.

So even after the launch of the high-sensitivity infrared reconnaissance satellite of the One Zero One Satellite Research Institute.

It's not that simple to get the data directly.

Because in addition to satellites, several ICBMs must be launched to collect data.

How can the launch of an ICBM be so simple?

Without mentioning the problem of the high cost of ICBMs themselves.

The various monitoring stations and ocean-going survey ships involved alone involve manpower and material resources that are unimaginable for ordinary small countries.

"However, if the data accuracy is set to an ideal state, what about the trajectory prediction accuracy?"

Since the real data is difficult, Zhang Xingyang can only hope for the ideal state.

In fact, in the memory chip in Zhang Xingyang's mind, there is a series of ICBM data.

However, those missiles are basically fourth-generation ballistic missiles decades later.

There is a big difference between the performance of all aspects and the current first- and second-generation ballistic missiles.

If these parameters are used as the basis of the model, then at today's supercomputing speed, it may not be possible to calculate the trajectory of the missile in a month.

You know, the computing speed of computers is basically climbing exponentially.

Twenty years later, the computing speed of the supercomputing center will be nearly 100 million times that of today!

Forty years later, the speed of computing centers on a single computing unit is not as exaggerated as 100 million times, but because of the change in the way supercomputing is built.

The overall improvement is still close to such a change.

Therefore, for supercomputers of the same period as the fourth-generation ballistic missiles, it only takes a few seconds to calculate their trajectories.

However, for today's computing speed, which is only 100 billion supercalculations, it may not be possible to complete the calculation in a year.

"The trajectory accuracy of 10 meters can reach 100 percent."

Zhao Bingzhi honestly stated the accuracy range of the current missile prediction model.

"The trajectory accuracy of the five-meter level can reach 85 percent."

"The trajectory accuracy of the three-meter level can reach 78 percent."

"The trajectory accuracy at the two-meter level is only 57 percent."

"The trajectory accuracy at the one-meter level is even lower, only 30 percent."

The higher the accuracy, the lower the accuracy.

It is also in line with Zhang Xingyang's psychological expectations before he came.

After all, the calculation of the flight trajectory of a missile is actually a very complicated matter.

Even if a ballistic missile in the same state has a trajectory of several hundred meters under different circumstances.

The strike accuracy of the DF-5 ICBM is 500-2000 meters.

Not to mention that ICBMs are almost identical in the production process.

Even a millimeter of undulation on the outer shell can cause a deviation of several meters during flight.

Therefore, being able to achieve a prediction accuracy of 30% at the one-meter level is already a very surprising data.

The national missile defense system, in the way of defending against ballistic missiles, because of Zhang Xingyang's strong recommendation at the beginning.

Therefore, the defense method of kinetic destruction is directly adopted, rather than the explosion destruction with a high probability of failure.

Therefore, the accuracy requirement is the most important thing for Zhang Xingyang.

After all, for kinetic destruction, even the slightest deviation can lead to a failure of defense.

"Is this the latest model?"

At this time, the two had already arrived at the model building laboratory of the supercomputing center.

The missile prediction model is actually divided into several parts.

Because the missile will actually face different situations during the whole flight process.

In different cases, the parameters of the model can vary greatly.

This is especially true in the atmosphere because the situation is different at different altitudes.

So the model is actually the most complex at this stage.

It is only after the missile has entered the atmosphere and the missile's trajectory has stabilized that the prediction model becomes simpler.

In fact, if there are several missile warning satellites in geostationary orbit, this problem will be even simpler.

Because for today's ICBMs, the distance and time of the mid-flight are very long.

Missile early warning satellites can have a long time to confirm targets and transmit incoming ICBM mid-course flight data to supercomputing centers on the ground.

If only the mid-flight is calculated, then the calculation accuracy of the supercomputing center will be greatly improved.

Even the most difficult one-meter level of accuracy can be improved to more than 80 percent.

But now they do not have such infrared early warning satellites, and they can only calculate from the moment the missile is launched.

This will be much more difficult for the missile prediction model.

"Yes, this part is mainly an intra-atmosphere trajectory prediction model."

Zhao Bingzhi was densely packed on the computer screen, and ordinary people could be dizzy just by looking at it, and introduced Zhang Xingyang to it.

"This part, is it a model of a submarine-launched missile?"

Zhang Xingyang asked, pointing to a large piece of code on the screen.

"Yes, we mainly refer to the Great Wave in this part."

Zhao Bingzhi nodded and said.

The initial goal of the missile defense system is to defend against intercontinental ballistic missiles.

At present, there are three main ways to launch ICBMs in the world.

Two of them are land-based, mobile missile vehicles and stationary missile silos.

And the last is the death lurking under the waves, the submarine-launched ICBMs in nuclear submarines.

As the last line of defense for a triad of nuclear strikes by great powers.

Land-based missile vehicles and missile silos are likely to be destroyed by someone else's missiles at the first opportunity.

However, nuclear submarines, lurking hundreds of meters below the ocean, are able to dodge the first wave of enemy attacks.

Then, without the need to float, a submarine-launched ICBM is launched.

Therefore, the missile defense system also attaches great importance to the defense of submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

"Julang-2?"

Zhang Xingyang asked about the specific model again.

"Yes."

After getting a definite answer, Zhang Xingyang was still a little surprised.

After all, the Julang-2 is actually the most advanced submarine-launched ballistic missile in China.

The development of the Julang-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile began in earnest in 90, but many problems arose due to the lack of sufficient underwater experimental data and simulation experimental equipment.

Until the present year 00, it has not been possible to officially carry out a live launch.

Even the launch of a simulated warhead is expected to take another two or three years

This is also the reason why Zhang Xingyang was so surprised.

Now that the weapons have not been forged, they all have to forge shields according to the weapons.

"Giving you this kind of immature data, they are really anxious."

Although he was a little emotional, Zhang Xingyang knew that there was no way to do it.

Because there are only two kinds of submarine-launched ballistic missiles in China, Julang-1 and Julang-2.

But the range of the Julang-1 is only more than 2,000 kilometers.

Although it has given the country the ability to strike a second nuclear strike, it is undeniable that the Julang-1 has lagged behind in the 21st century.

Therefore, the primary goal of the missile defense system, if it wants to be achieved, can only use the Julang-2, which has not yet completed its research and development work.

The range of the Julang-2 ballistic missile, compared with the 2,000 kilometers of the Julang-1, has increased several times to more than 7,000 kilometers.

His family knows about his own family affairs, and Zhang Xingyang's Rocket Research Institute has a lot of cooperation with the Second Aerospace Academy, which developed the Julang-2 missile, and he also knows their situation well.

Although we do not know the specific progress of Julang-2 at present, judging from many situations declassified in later generations, the current development process of Julang-2 is not smooth.

The main reason is the lack of necessary simulation equipment for underwater launches, which makes it difficult to explore the situation of missiles.

Especially in the absence of simulation equipment, it is not realistic to understand the complex underwater power situation, even if it relies on large-scale supercomputing.

It is important to know that the disturbance of water currents is much stronger than the disturbance of the atmosphere.

Under the same launch situation, it is much easier for a land-based missile to maintain a stable launch than for an underwater missile.

"That's pretty much all of their data now."

Zhao Bingzhi showed Zhang Xingyang the pitiful data in the computer and said.

"Underwater launches are really rare, but you don't have to think too much about it."

Zhang Xingyang said after looking at the detailed data:

"Your current focus is still on the precision and accuracy of flight outside the atmosphere."

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(End of chapter)