While training blacks, East African army generals were also analysing Mozambique's strategic intentions.

Yarman: "Through the analysis of Mozambique's intelligence, we can determine that the Mozambican army is now mainly concentrated in the south, and there are a large number of blacks trained, the exact number is unknown, but it should be no less than 30,000, and more than 10,000 in Maputo alone. ”

Siite analyzed: "We can guess how many troops Mozambique will organize according to the maximum capacity, according to the density of our East African natives in the past, the population of Mozambique should be more than two million, then it is also possible for Portugal to organize hundreds of thousands of troops, but they obviously cannot have this strength, the problem of weapons and equipment cannot be solved, but if we are pressed, more than 100,000 people should be able to pull out, with the help of Britain and France, The tens of thousands of relatively well-equipped black troops should be able to be formed, but the combat effectiveness may not be very high, and the Portuguese should be able to produce an army of several thousand on their own. ”

Felix: "Mozambique borders East Africa on three sides, so they have three directions to attack us, one is the southern frontier province, one is the Matabele province, and finally the north is the lake Malawi and the Rufuma River, if we assume that the Portuguese mobilize 50,000 troops, then they can only attack in one direction. ”

Sith: "We have done a very good job of defending the Rutoma line, we have been using the Rutoma River as the default border between the two sides for more than ten years, so the fortifications along the river are very good, if Mozambique is the main force and attacks the Rutoma line, it is absolutely stupid." ”

Merk: "I don't see it that way, the Rufuma defense line relies on river and lake troops, and the ability of our river and lake forces in this regard is actually very limited, for example, the middle and upper reaches of the area are not covered, and the Rufuma River is very long, especially in the west, and the Rufuma River does not extend all the way to Lake Malawi, so there is this big gap. ”

"But correspondingly, the Portuguese have no advantage on the line of the Rufuma River, they have almost no development on the south bank of the Rufuma River, and we have river and lake troops on the Rufuma River as a countermeasure, and they may not even be able to get together a ferry, unless a temporary batch is made to cross the river." ”

Yarman: "Do you think the Southern Frontier and Hehingen provinces are likely to be attacked?" ”

"Most likely, these two places are too close to Maputo and I believe that the Portuguese are putting the most pressure on these two provinces."

"The province of Hexingen has the Drakensian Mountains as a barrier, and has a natural geographical advantage, and the Portuguese should not focus on the province of Hexingen, so the military strength of the southern frontier province should be strengthened, and our military defense in the southern province is focused on the line of the Tugela River in the south, mainly to deal with the British, and the northern front is indeed not paid enough attention."

"If Portugal really attacks the Southern Frontier Province, then they can only go south from the coastal plain, this area is relatively narrow, and it should be enough to put one more brigade of troops, our strategic goal cannot be to take Maputo at the beginning, otherwise the Portuguese may surrender directly, so the northern front of the Southern Frontier Province should be mainly defensive."

……

While East Africa was formulating a war strategy against Portugal, the two good big brothers of Britain and France were also helping Portugal to make plans, but compared with the calmness of the East African Army, the military personnel of Britain and France had a headache.

"The terrain of Mozambique is very unfavorable for defense, it can be said that it is heavy at both ends and light in the middle, and it is easy to be broken by the waist, but whether it can be truncated by East Africa from the middle depends on the strength of the interior of East Africa and the deployment of troops in East Africa."

"East Africa's forces are mainly concentrated in two regions, one south and one north, the East African army on the other side of the Rubuma River should be the strongest in number and strength, followed by the south, East Africa's military strength in South Africa is not bad, they have a natural fear of Cape Town." Johnson, the instructor of the British army, said triumphantly.

It is very understandable that the British made this judgment, because East Africa did deploy its forces in this way, north of the Rufuma River was the absolute core area of East Africa, and South Africa and East Africa also made great efforts to deploy military forces, that is, to prevent British forces from moving north.

Johnson said: "So although there are many East African troops and more areas to defend, they have been pinned down by us at least 50 percent of their military strength, and if it weren't for your Portuguese inaction, East Africa would not have expanded so quickly." ”

The French instructor was very unhappy when he saw the British being beaten, but the Portuguese were indeed too incompetent, and they had been living in Africa for hundreds of years, and they had been living by eating their old capital, but they were bullied by the Germans who came later, which was too embarrassing.

If Portugal really has the courage and strength to expand aggressively in Africa, then I am afraid that today it will be Britain, France and Germany to join forces to deal with the Portuguese.

As for why Portugal has not made much progress in Africa, this is really not to blame the heads of the two colonial governments, the former son of the Kingdom of Portugal was Brazil, and the main investment was also in Brazil, as a result, who would have thought that Brazil would become directly independent.

Without Brazil, the Portuguese government was still extremely chaotic, had no energy to unite with the outside world, self-consumption was extremely serious, and the remaining colonies were even more sucking the marrow, and the sequelae of Brazil's independence was that the Portuguese government was even more secretive about investing in the colonies.

Compared with East Africa, which regards East Africa as its own development, Mozambique and Angola's natural development is unsatisfactory, and the development of East Africa is continuous investment, regardless of cost, while the development of Mozambique and Angola is actually tied hand and foot, and the local people have to suck blood in the two places, after all, the local economy is not good, and the landlord's family has no surplus food.

"Therefore, in these two areas, in my opinion, the north can only focus on defense, and our goal is to attack and dismember East Africa, and it is too unrealistic to eliminate East Africa, so it is better to focus on South Africa."

The reason why Johnson thinks this is that there is another consideration, that is, to use the Portuguese to consume the strength of East Africa in South Africa, after all, Cape Town is still watching from the sidelines!

The French saw through the careful thinking of the British and said: "You have already said that the military investment of East Africa in South Africa is very large, and I don't think it is appropriate for Portugal to focus on this area. ”

Mozambique's Governor Lefford agreed: "What Colonel Clément said is very reasonable, East Africa has a large number of people, and if we mainly invest our military strength in the direction of South Africa, I am afraid it will not be good for us, so we can't put our eggs in one basket." ”

The existence of the Southern Frontier Province is indeed a great threat to the security of Maputo, but if Portugal pulls out this nail, it will have to be neighbors with the British, and it is better to let East Africa stay there! As the British themselves said, they held back the energy of East Africa, and East Africa could not deal with Portugal single-mindedly in the Southern Frontier Province.

This is a multiple-choice question, and the question is that there are pros and cons to both answers, but in Lyford's view, the British threat is greater than that of East Africa, and Portugal can choose Britain and France to counterbalance against East Africa, and who will counterbalance against the British? By France? I am afraid that they will sell Portugal in exchange for British concessions to themselves in other areas, such as West Africa.

Although the threat of East Africa to Mozambique is imminent, speaking in good conscience, East Africa has been really good to Mozambique in recent years, and has never done anything excessive, but Britain has a criminal record.

The fault of East Africa is that its strength is expanding too fast, which scared the Portuguese, and this time Britain and France guaranteed that even if Portugal was defeated, it would not let East Africa swallow Mozambique and Angola, if East Africa insisted on going its own way, then the two countries would join forces to pressure East Africa, so with the guarantee, it is the real reason why the Portuguese dared to take the chestnut in the fire, and they made a lot of money if they won Mozambique, and it was even possible to realize the connection between Angola and Mozambique, which was not much worse than the original Brazilian colony, and it would not be a loss if it lost, It can also keep the colonies of Mozambique and Angola.

Johnson saw that the plan could not succeed, and said very unhappily: "What is the opinion of that?" ”

Clément: "I think in both the north and the south, we should be on the defensive, especially Maputo, although it is very close to the southern colonies of East Africa, but it is impossible for East Africa to capture Maputo, Maputo's defense I dare say is one of the best areas in the whole of Africa, without heavy weapons and a large number of troops, it is basically impossible to take here." ”

It's not that Clement touts the Portuguese, but that Maputo is indeed the most difficult fortress in the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, and that in the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, only Cape Town, a century-old city, can compete with Maputo.

"What if East Africa attacks from the sea? The naval strength of East Africa was not bad, they bought almost a whole set of navies from the Austrians. ”

"This requires the cooperation of our two navies, no matter how strong the East African navy is, can it be stronger than our two countries? We need to start with a military ultimatum prohibiting any naval power in the eastern Indian Ocean region from interfering in this war. ”

This is to tie one hand in East Africa to fight with Portugal, but if Britain and France open their mouths, Ernst has to admit that it is indeed very powerful, and the East African Navy cannot withstand the joint efforts of the world's first and second navies.

Clement continued: "The focus of our offensive should be on the center, attacking the hinterland of East Africa, which is the weakness of Mozambique, in other words, the weakness of East Africa, the north and the south are on the defensive, containing the main force of East Africa, and quickly cutting off the connection between the north and the south of the East African kingdom in the middle, and Angola and Mozambique will meet in the central region of East Africa, so that the southern part of East Africa will also become an enclave, so that the threat of East Africa will be greatly reduced." ”

If Clément's plan is allowed to succeed, then East Africa will lose the middle ground dominated by Zimbabwe and Zambia, and after the connection with the east is cut off, South Africa and South West Africa will become lambs to be slaughtered, and East Africa may really become East Africa, once back to ten years ago.

However, this is only an ideal situation, not to mention the miscalculation of the real military strength of East Africa, and they also ignore the existence of a war weapon in East Africa. In the last Franco-Prussian War, why the French failed was inseparable from the construction of Prussian railways, which the French once again ignored this problem, East Africa has a major artery in the interior, and can rely on the central railway to support the weak links on the battlefield at any time.

(End of chapter)