120th Secret Letter 1

Dear General,

I am writing to you my first letter here. At your request, the letter should have been delivered to you in absolute seal, not by magical communication.

Since departure, the journey has been quite smooth. Judging by what I have seen in Gruni, the whole country is relatively calm at the moment. The expected civil war has not yet begun – at least not yet.

Despite the tension, many caravans can still be seen on the road. According to the results of my consultations along the way, apart from the considerable increase in the prices of grain, iron tools, and horses, there were no significant price fluctuations in anything else. Of course, this may also be because I haven't been in the country yet.

The first stop on my visit was the city of Fornoros. As you taught, I did not rush to see Duke Byron in the first place, but first spent three days in detail, getting a detailed understanding of the whole city of Fornoros and the surrounding situation. As previous intelligence suggests, Byron has amassed a sizable army here in Fornoros. From what I had observed from afar, I thought that the army was well trained, well-equipped, and ready for battle (which was reinforced by Byron's subsequent tour of the army).

Although you think that the Duke of Byron is resourceful, not good at military strategy, and a cunning politician, he has absolutely no talent for leading troops. But in my opinion, it would be quite a remarkable thing to simply organize such an army. I know that your vision is far sharper than mine, but perhaps Byron has made up for his flaws as the years have passed, or perhaps he has gained a subordinate who is good at military strategy.

In any case, from my point of view, Byron's strength at the moment is quite impressive. In this game, he has already taken the lead. Based on my observation of the overall defense of the city of Fornoros, even if you ignore the military fortresses on the periphery, the city itself cannot be ignored. As long as Byron left 10,000 soldiers to guard (according to my observations, his total strength should be around 30,000 to 40,000) to take charge of the defense of the city of Fornoros, then he would be hiding in a turtle shell. Any enemy who would take the city would need at least 50,000 troops and several months, suffering at least 10,000 casualties. Of course, the city is also well equipped and has plenty of food.

Other than that, Fornoros City is, after all, Byron's home base. Although Duke Byron has made the city of falcon angry, at least the situation in Fornoros is very fond of their lord. The Queen's order to arrest the rebel is now known throughout the city, but almost all the inhabitants choose to support Byron.

Incidentally, the little queen of Eagle Falcon City did an astonishing move, she failed to collect the taxes owed from the lords of various places, and actually ordered them to be declared rebellious, and all the great nobles were stripped of their titles, domains, and wealth. This matter is really unexpected, but I believe that with your level of well-informed, you should already know about this matter by the time you read this letter.

I'm afraid that the throne of the Makremiz family really won't last long. Even I, an outsider, can see that this stupid trick of the little queen will directly push all the forces that are currently neutral directly to the opposite side of herself. Even if she solves the huge debt problem of the economy, she will not be able to reverse the huge difference in strength between the two sides. I guess my second stop can be canceled. In Eagle City, I will not waste any time to meet the little queen, I only need to observe the situation a little before leaving.

After I had asked to see me, I was received by the Duke of Byron. He gave me a grand welcome and talked to me for a long time alone.

This was not a particularly pleasant thing, because Byron was not a likable person, he talked a lot of nonsense and kept tapping on the side. I must say that he has always tried his best to find out what I am here to do, and especially about my country's attitude – and your personal opinion. Of course, in this regard, I do exactly what you taught me: constantly hinting, but never saying anything explicitly. I always emphasize that I am your personal messenger and I do not represent anyone but you.

I don't know if it was to show off or to show off his strength, but in the days after the conversation, Byron took me to visit a series of places such as the grain warehouse, the material warehouse, and the military camp outside the city. I believe this is not a deliberate disguise to deceive me, for I had secretly observed these vital places before I met him. As I have already said, I believe that Byron is ready for a long battle, at least in my opinion.

Byron even let me sit as an observer at a formal council (he didn't reveal my name or identity, of course). At this meeting, it must have been the result of a deliberate performance, and Byron made it clear to me the whole situation of Gruny and his strategy. It would be quite cumbersome to recount this meeting, so I would like to give you a brief explanation of a few key issues.

First, Byron's strategy was clever. The duke was clearly aware of his lack of military talent, so he had no intention of settling the dispute with the army. He will remain on the defensive in his strategic posture. He will never take the initiative to attack, but patiently hangs his enemies with an economic noose. And the information he has is not much different from the information you told me before. Purely economically, he does have an unbeatable advantage. Even if he does nothing, his enemies will slowly die of exhaustion.

To put it mildly, unless the gods drop a mountain of gold from the sky to smash the Eagle Falcon City, there is no hope for the little queen.

This strategy has led me to raise my personal opinion of Byron, who is far more than 50 per cent likely to win if Gruny's current situation were to be compared to a gamble.

Second, Byron had already strengthened the defenses of the city of Fornoros. If a foreign enemy attacks this private territory, then he will find that it is a hard walnut that cannot be crushed or swallowed. Based on my private investigation and what Byron revealed to me, I am almost certain of this. In the absence of major internal changes (such as Byron's own violent death), with external forces, whether it is the little queen of Eagle Falcon City or Rafa in the north, I am afraid that there are not enough troops to break through the multi-layered defense line of Fornoros City. Even if there is, it will not be possible in the short term.

Judging by the methods you have taught me, I think that even if Byron suffered a great loss in the field, the city of Fornoros would still be impregnable. With such a base, even if Byron makes a big mistake, he can leave the capital to turn the tables. After all, as mentioned in the first point, neither of the two enemies Byron faced could afford to delay for too long, and even if they won a battle through a short-term raid or genius planning, it would still not change the overall situation.

Third, although Byron's basic strategy was to drag down the enemy over time, this did not mean that he would remain motionless in Fornoros. In fact, his activities are very active. Diplomatically, he is trying to win the support of the great nobles everywhere, and I think that after such a trick by the little queen, Byron's diplomatic efforts will be fruitful. In terms of defense, he also had a good track record of strengthening the defenses of the castle on the outskirts of Fornoros. At least, with my military prowess, I have no opinion at all about Byron's defensive strategy.

The last and most important thing was Byron's intention to cut off the supply of Falcon City. He was in talks with various chambers of commerce to trap Eagle Falcon City from an economic point of view. At present, the major chambers of commerce have not answered, but once the little queen is unable to repay the accounts on time, this kind of thing will undoubtedly happen. In addition to the economy, Byron also had complete control over Gruny's various armory foundries - it must be said that he was very thoughtful in this matter, and all of Gruny's armories, including the original armory in Eagle City, were moved farther away because of "noisy pollution". As long as his diplomacy is successful (as mentioned earlier, the little queen's stupid tricks make it much less difficult for him to do this), the little queen will probably have no weapons to use.

In other words, in terms of military equipment, the little queen could not support even a slightly longer war. Not only the little queen, but also General Rafa was affected. Of course, the Legion of the Guards under the Little Queen is more noticeably affected, because according to what you said earlier, the Legion of the Guards does not have many weapons reserves. In particular, artillery, artillery and shells of the Guards Corps were limited in number. Unless they go through some kind of trade channel, through merchants, to buy ordnance.

But then again, based on the available information, the little queen would not have had the money to buy armaments at all - it was remarkable that she could not sell them for money. In this regard, Byron is targeting Rafa more.

In the light of all this, I am at the last to think that, in the absence of other forces, Byron should be the ultimate victor in this civil war. He is indeed cunning and powerful enough.

In fact, though, it wasn't Byron's arrangement that really struck me, but the name.

General, I wonder if you already knew the way when you read this letter—at this moment, the person who controls everything by the little queen's side is named Ashrufat. I'm sure you will never ignore the name. The name reminds me of our experiences in Sylvania and what happened in Mill.

That's right, there is now a man named Aerufat (the same name as the Scarlet Duke) who is by the side of the little queen of Gruni.

I have carefully inquired about the situation of Ashrufat. I tried my best to make it look like a casual flare of curiosity, or at least I hoped that no one would see the nervousness I was asking about.

The man named Ashrufat was from a small town west of Gruni, and his exact origin and family were unknown, and he never mentioned it to anyone. If someone asked, he would say that he had amnesia. He's a soon-to-be son-in-law of the Griffin family (yes, the one with branches of Gruney and Tiberius) - anyway, he's in Eagle City because someone in the Griffin family has introduced him to the role of the queen's personal bodyguard.

Then, in Byron's failed coup d'état, Ashrufat protected the queen through many obstacles, and finally fled outside the city, taking over the Legion of the Guards to launch a counter-attack. Because of such important feats, he eventually became the true ruler of Eagle Falcon City.

To be honest, I can't guess what's going on right now.