This article was published in the fourth week of "Junshan Notes" in May, and is the opinion of the friends of Junshan and has nothing to do with the people of Babaodao.

Author: Qi Zhixiu - Friend of Junshan

(Part I)

Limited to Zhao Ran's Taoist position, the first mention of "faith" by the Babao Daoist was after the victory of Baima Mountain in the 20th year of Jiajing[1], and Junshan Temple contributed 336,000 gui of credibility in the 19th year of Jiajing. Later, it was mentioned that Sichuan Province had a total credibility of 56 million gui in Jiajing's 19 years, ranking ninth among the 13 provinces in the two capitals [2, 3]. Later, he introduced the amount of credibility required to receive the congregation, ranging from 18,000 gui in the Taoist realm to 72 million gui in the realm of the Daoist realm[4]. The first time that the total value of national credibility was explicitly mentioned was in the 20th year of Jiajing, which was 1.2 billion gui [5]. Since then, from the 20th year of Jiajing to the 28th year of Jiajing, the total income of the country's credibility has been clearly indicated [7-18]. The only exception is in the 24th year of Jiajing, and the Babao Dao people only gave the per capita credit contribution of the Ming Dynasty that year, which was about 10 gui [11]. According to the population of the Ming Dynasty in the 20th year of Jiajing (110 million)[5] and the average annual population growth rate of the world (1.2%), the population of Jiajing in 24 years was 115 million, and the national credibility income in that year was 1.15 billion gui. From the 20th to the 28th year of Jiajing, the annual credibility income of the whole country first increased (20 to 22 years), then decreased (23 years, 24 years), and then increased (after 25 years). Among them, the lowest in 24 years. If we put aside the huge credibility brought by Zhang Laodao's ascension (51 million gui), the actual credibility in 22 years is lower than the income in 21 years. However, Zhang Laodao's ascension consumes far more credibility than his positive income: a total of 5.4 billion credibility is consumed, including 3.6 billion to build a rainbow bridge and 1.8 billion to resist 18 thunderstorms [6].

Based on the above hypothetical population growth rate, the per capita annual contribution of the Ming Dynasty from 20 to 28 years in Jiajing was the lowest 10 gui (24 years) and the highest was 11.57 gui (28 years). Interestingly, in Jiajing 21 and 22, the per capita contribution credibility was 11.17 and 11.39 Gyu, ranking fourth and second highest in 9 years. The reason for this may be because at that time, the three palaces and the imperial court had not yet behaved as they did the day after tomorrow. The per capita contribution credibility began to increase in Jiajing 25 years. The reason for this is most likely that the monk held the Ten Directions Jungle Dao position.

Considering the population constraints of environmental resources, it is assumed that the population of the Ming Dynasty will not exceed 150 million in the foreseeable decades (the data of the 28th year of Wanli in this world is 59 years before the 20th year of Jiajing). There are two ways to predict the national credibility in Jiajing 28 years later: first, to predict the growth rate of per capita credibility based on the effect of preaching, and second, to set the annual growth rate of national credibility by the overall view.

For the first method, the average annual per capita credibility growth can be extrapolated from the actual data from Jiajing 25 to 28 years. Over the four years, the growth rate fluctuated between 1.22 per cent and 6.66 per cent, with an average of 3.74 per cent. However, trust per capita will not grow all the time. According to the data of Jiajing in the 20th year, the per capita credit contribution of Western Xia was 15 gui, and that of Tibet was as high as 22 gui [5]. Therefore, if the per capita credibility contribution of the Ming people is limited to 15 gui per year, this limit will be reached in the 35th year of Jiajing, which means that the per capita credibility of the Ming Dynasty will not increase after the 36th year of Jiajing; if the limit is limited to 22 gui in Tibet, the upper limit of per capita credibility will be reached in the 45th year of Jiajing. For the first case, the next time the total reliability of Daming's inventory reaches 6 billion will be the 41st year of Jiajing, that is, 19 years after Zhang Laodao's ascension. Note that this calculation takes into account that only 20% of the credibility income goes into the total view of the credibility pool, and that there is still a stock of 1.2 billion gui in the total view after Zhang Laodao's ascension. The next time it can provide the 6 billion guixin power needed for the ascension of the monks of the Hedao Realm, it will be 13 years later, in the 54th year of Jiajing. Since neither the population nor the per capita credibility will continue to grow thereafter, the total credibility income will reach a balance, i.e., 6 billion guifeisheng credibility every 13 years. For the per capita credibility of the 22 gui cap, the next ascension time is in the 40th year of Jiajing, the 18th year after Zhang Laodao's ascension, and the interval between the subsequent ascensions is 10 years and 9 years, and will stabilize at 9 years. Therefore, raising the upper limit of trust per capita from 15 to 22 will provide one more chance to ascend in the 40 years after Zhang Laodao's ascension (3 times vs. 4 times). Considering that there are actually ten monks in the Dao Gate, all the required power (60 billion gui) will be collected between 100 and 136 years after Zhang Lao Dao's ascension.

For the second way in which the aggregate view sets the rate of growth of confidence, the results are similar to those discussed above. At present, the overall credibility growth rate is 5%, and when translated into per capita credibility growth, it is 3.75%, which is very close to the 3.74% per capita credibility growth rate in the first scenario. This shows that the general view of Taoism respects objective laws.

This prediction only estimates the time it will take for a Merge Realm monk to ascend on a 100-year scale in terms of credibility growth, and the actual situation is also affected by many factors, such as the age of the Merge Realm monk, the order of ascension, the time it takes to cultivate to the consummation of the Merge Path, the number of new Merge Paths, and so on. On a larger time scale, such as 200 or even 500 years, the number of monks will be affected by more factors, such as the number of Gu Dan issued and the success rate of Gu Zheng, the lack of cultivation resources, the struggle within the Daomen, the dispute between Buddhism and Taoism, the dispute between Confucianism and Taoism, the dispute between imperial power and Taoism, and so on.

References:

1 Vol. VII, chap. 55

2 Volume VII, chapter 66

3 Volume VII, chapter 67

4 Episode 8, chapter 4

5 Vol. IX, chap. 66

6 Volume IX, chapter 146

7 Vol. X, chap. 54

8 Vol. X, chap. 129

9 Vol. X, chap. 130

10 Vol. XI, chap. 27

11 Vol. XI, chap. 28

12 Vol. XI, chap. 80

13 Vol. XI, chap. 81

14 Vol. XI, chap. 149

15 Vol. XII, chap. 13

16 Vol. XII, chap. 35

17 Vol. XII, chap. 100

18 Vol. XII, chap. 101

(Part II)

In the latest high-level news of Daomen revealed by the Babao Daoists, whether the credibility is sufficient after a hundred years has become an important factor limiting the development of the Daomen, which also determines the development direction of the Daomen in the next few decades, whether to continue the absolute rule of the imperial power and the people for a hundred years, or to give it a try and find other ways to ascend in addition to credibility. Although the top management of the Daomen is full of worries about the predictable future (i.e., 120 years from now), according to the article on the prediction and analysis of the credibility of the Ming Dynasty published in the second week of May in Junshan Notes, there is still room for study in the growth of credibility and the impact on the ascension of the monks of the United Dao. This article will continue the previous analysis to make a more accurate prediction of the growth of credibility in a hundred years, as well as to predict the number of monks in a hundred years, especially the number of monks in the Hedao realm.

1. Reliability prediction model

As mentioned above, according to the annual population growth rate of 1.2% and the upper limit of 150 million, if the per capita annual credit contribution of the Ming Dynasty reaches 22 gui, it can provide a stable opportunity for a nine-year leap after 30 years. In fact, the per capita credibility value of 22 gui has already been reached in some areas of the Ming Dynasty, for example, in the 19th year of Jiajing, the Junshan Temple has actually reached 28 gui per capita credibility contribution, and the Tianshi Temple under Longhu Mountain also has 26 gui [1]. Therefore, the goal of 22 Guyana per capita credible contribution is not out of reach. In addition, the annual population growth rate appears to be projected to be high. According to the latest disclosure of the number of Taoist monks[2], and assuming that the ratio of monks to population is basically constant (0.12%, statistics for Jiajing 18, 24, and 30 years), it can be concluded that the annual population growth rate in Jiajing 18 years is about 0.6%, which is half of the previous hypothesis. Therefore, after revising the predictions of the previous reliability model, the time interval of the next four ascent is 19 years, 10 years, 10 years, and 9 years, and it will be stable at 9 years.

2. Ascension ranking and prediction

In the 29th year of Jiajing, there were 10 monks in the Daomen and Dao realms, in order of ascension: Longyang Patriarch, Shao Yuanjie, Duanmu Chongqing, Tao Zhongwen, Iron Crown Patriarch Zhang Zhong, Feng Lingdu, Zhang Yunyi, Wang Changyu, Jiao Yuanjun, Pan Yuanjun (Mrs. Ruizhu). There are also two retreats that impact the Hedao realm, Zhang Yangming and Pan Tianshi. Among the ten Hedaoists, Longyang Patriarch is the same age as Shao Yuanjie, both are 247 years old, Tao Zhongwen is 210 years old, Jiao Yuanjun is 193 years old, and Pan Yuanjun, a new Hedao, is about 165 years old[3]. According to the newly revised reliability prediction model, Zongguan will gather all the confidence needed for his ascension again 19 years after Zhang Dazhenren's ascension, but Patriarch Longyang had to wait another two years (the Heavenly Court penalty period has expired at the end of 81 years) to ascend again, and he was 261 years old at the time. Master Shao will ascend 8 years later, at the age of 269. After another 19 years, Tao Zhongwen soared to the age of 251. Jiao Yuanjun had to wait for more than 80 years and soared at the age of 279. Pan Yuanjun, who was ranked last, waited the longest, 102 years from the time of Zhang Dazhenren's ascension, when he was 256 years old.

Considering the long lifespan of the monks of the Merge Realm, and the longevity of those who can reach 300 years old [4], the above estimation of the ascension age is realistic. Therefore, the ten Merge Dao Realm cultivators who are currently in the order can safely ascend according to the existing Dao Sect Faith Ascension Pattern if there are no other accidents in the past 100 years. If the monk has not lived much, it is a different matter. The top management of Daomen once revealed that Feng Dazhen was older. The evaluation model predicts that 66 years after Zhang Dazhen's ascension, Feng Dazhenren can soar. If this year (Jiajing 29 years) Feng Dazhen is not more than 211 years old, he can still soar before the age of 270.

Regarding the issue of the upper age limit when ascending to the Merge Dao Realm, the most worthy examples should be Zhang Dazhen and Longyang Patriarch. However, according to the author's analysis, there are doubts about Zhang Dazhen's age. Babao Dao people have repeatedly revealed that Zhang Dazhen has a long lifespan, around 300 years old. However, according to Zhang Dazhen's personal statement in the 21st year of Jiajing, he joined the Tao 98 years ago[5], and according to Zhao Zhenren of the Dongji Pavilion, Zhang Dazhen entered the Tao at the age of 173[6]. Therefore, Zhang Dazhen's actual age at the time of ascension should be 234 years old. The age of Longyang Patriarch is much clearer. If there is no accident, Longyang Patriarch was 261 years old when he ascended. In any case, until the Eight Treasure Dao people provide more detailed data, Jiao Yuanjun will be the oldest Hedao (279 years old) who is clearly known to be the oldest at the time of ascension, but it is still below the upper limit of the longevity of the Hedao Realm monks.

3. Soaring forecast for the next 120 years

In the latest news, the number of monks has increased dramatically, from 3,000 every 100 years a hundred years ago to 3,000 every 6 years today[2]. 20 years after Jiajing, due to the advent of the Orthopaedic Sutra, the number of orthopedic pills has increased dramatically, and the success rate of orthopedic pills is as high as ninety. The top brass of the Daomen is worried about the excessive number of monks in the next 120 years and the increase in the number of monks in the United Dao.

According to the revised population growth model, it is estimated that in the 100 years before Jiajing 18 years ago, the population of the Ming Dynasty was more than 59.8 million. The corresponding number of 129,000 monks is two monks per 1,000 (0.22%), which is slightly higher than the current ratio (0.12%). If the current ratio is followed and the population cap is set at 150 million, in 120 years, there will be 180,000 fully qualified monks.

Before calculating the number of monks who will increase by using the Bone Correction Pill, it is necessary to consider the impact period of the Bone Rectification Pill, that is, the time affected by each successful bone correction period. This cycle is mainly influenced by the longevity of the monks. Since it is difficult for the vast majority of monks to enter the mage realm (Shou Yuan 80)[4], a rough calculation shows that the effect of a bone correction resets after 100 years. In recent years, an average of more than 700 pieces of Zhenggu Pill [2] have been issued every year, and some surplus has been put to no more than 1,000 pieces per year. After 100 years of continuous distribution, each year is affected by the number of Zhenggu Dan issued in the previous 100 years. Therefore, after 120 years, the total number of monks who have entered the practice of orthopaedic meditation is about 100,000.

At present, there are more than 130,000 monks, of which 10 monks in the Hedao realm at most and 9 at the minimum, which is about 7 monks for every 100,000 monks. According to this ratio, after 120 years, about 13 of the 180,000 monks who do not need to have the bones straightened will join the way, and 7 of the 100,000 monks who will enter the practice through the bones will join the way. Thus, 120 years later, there were 280,000 monks in the Ming Dynasty, of whom 20 were in harmony. According to the above prediction of trustworthiness, 120 years later, 10 Hedao, including Pan Yuanjun, have soared, and at least 1 new Hedao has ascended after Pan Yuanjun. Since then, all mergers have been new to the mergers, and the interval between each ascension is 9 years. Merge, which is in the 14th ascending position, will have to wait 126 years. If this monk is about 160 years old when he enters the Path, he can still ascend at the age of 286. The 15th to 20th places have to wait for 135 to 180 years. If the longevity is limited, there is indeed little hope for ascension.

Considering the cultivation speed of the monks, Chu Yangcheng has been refining for 34 years, and he can be called a genius [7]. The time required to refine the void to merge is unknown, but it is estimated to be 20 years. The consummation of the Dao, Zhang Dazhen 38 years, Shao Da Tianshi 33 years [6]. Therefore, the monk can be promoted in as little as 90 years. Just as Zhang Dazhen gave up the Flying Ascension Ranking (two sorts), or if the Longyang Patriarch postponed the Ascension for 81 years, the future genius monk is likely to also give the Ascension Ranking to the Later Immortal Shouyuan. Therefore, the current letter system may be able to support the 20 mergers to soar one after another in 120 years.

4. Population cap

This analysis uses 150 million as the upper limit of the Ming population. If a higher ceiling, such as 1.5 billion, is considered, the number of monks and the total income of faith will change. After 120 years, there were more than 287,000 osteopathic monks who did not need it, and there were 20 osteopathic monks, and another 100,000 osteopathic monks, of which 7 were combined. A total of 27 people joined the road. And the population breaking the upper limit of 150 million also brings a lot of credibility. At present, it will take a total of 93 years for all of the ten people to ascend. Since then, the ascension interval has gradually decreased from 7 years to 5 years. After 120 years, the ascension interval is even lowered. If only 27 mergers are considered, the last one will have to wait at most 135 years for the ascension to the top, which is even faster than the 180 years in the previous analysis. For the longer term, the number of mergers and the growth of credibility need to be further analyzed.

5. Conclusion

In the next 120 years, if the per capita credibility can continue to increase to 22 gui at an annual growth rate of 3.74%, and the number of orthopedic pills distributed each year does not exceed 1,000, it can ensure that the 10 amalgamas today and the 14 amalgamations coexisting in the same period in the future can be successfully promoted, and the success of the ascents of the 15 to 20 abandonments depends on the age of the monks themselves and the order in which the monks at the top of the ranking are exchanged. If the population growth of Daming can exceed the upper limit of 150 million, according to this credible development model, 120 years later, it can still provide 27 people who coexist in the same period.

References

1. Volume VII, Chapter 91, A Guest from Dragon and Tiger Mountain

2. Volume XII, Chapter 101 The Initiator

3. Volume 12, Chapter 56, Zhang Tengming's Chance

4. Book VI, Chapter 9, See Summons into Qingcheng

5. Volume IX, Chapter 52, Cause and Effect

6. Volume XI, Chapter 149

7. Is Chapter 87 of Volume IX miscalculated or correct?