Accounting for 8% of GDP, the financial industry has become the fastest-growing industry in recent years!

Do you ever recall: 1,000 shares limit, 1,000 shares down limit, 1,000 shares suspension, short-lived circuit breaker mechanism, MSCI three rejections of A shares?

The wounds of the exchange rate reform in August last year have not yet been erased, and the frightening exchange rate disaster in January has arrived! The pressure of the depreciation of the renminbi exchange rate has been pressing on the bottom of my heart like a heavy stone, does the renminbi still have a future?

Internet +, P2P, P2C, O2O, B2C, B2B, C2C, X2X?A lot of strange things have fooled the Chinese people how much wealth, and the aunt who twisted Yangge is on the Internet + all day long, and even the coffin was lost in the end?

The renminbi is getting farther and farther away from internationalization: according to SWIFT, since August last year, the proportion of renminbi in global payments has been 2.79%, 2.45%, 1.92%, 2.28%, 2.31%, 2.45%, 1.76%, 1.88%, 1.82%, and 1.9%. Pen @ fun @ pavilion wWw. ｂｉｑUｇE。 According to the Global Official Foreign Exchange Reserve Currency Composition (COFER) report released by the IMF on June 30, at the end of the first quarter of 2016, the US dollar accounted for 63.59%, the euro 20.37%, the British pound 4.79%, the Japanese yen 4.08%, the Canadian dollar 1.95%, the Australian dollar 1.90%, the Swiss franc 0.28%, and other currencies 3.04% (the proportion of the renminbi is certainly less than the Swiss franc 0.28%, which is almost negligible)

After the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, central banks around the world were on high alert. All bank stocks are under intense pressure. Among them, of course, is China's central bank. The official figure of the non-performing loan ratio faced by China's banking industry has exceeded 2%, and the actual figure has reached 40% of GDP. If credit continues to grow at a rate of 15%-18%, Bedford estimates that the loan-to-deposit ratio in China's banking system will increase by 3-5 percentage points in a year, and that in about three years, the loan-to-deposit ratio will reach 95%.

The bond market defaulted in a row, the issuance of 100 billion bonds was cancelled, and the rating was frequently downgraded. As of 15:00 on April 27, at least 103 bonds totaling 100.91 billion yuan were postponed or cancelled by Chinese enterprises in April. Since 2016, a total of 22 bonds from 11 bond issuers have defaulted. The magic box of China's debt default has been opened, and the default of credit bonds is on a "roller coaster" market.

In 2015, the balance of bonds in China's bond market was 46.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 30%, and China became the world's third largest bond market after the United States and Japan. Outrageously high debt leverage (308% of GDP), monthly debt swaps, a vicious circle of high investment and high debt??

China's wealth management products are booming, comparable to the pomp and circumstance on the eve of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. In the past few years, as the interest rate of wealth management products is significantly higher than the interest rate on bank deposits, Chinese residents have invested their savings in such wealth management products. At the end of 2015, the balance of wealth management products surged to 23.5 trillion yuan ($3.6 trillion), equivalent to 35% of China's GDP, from 7.1 trillion yuan three years earlier, according to the Central Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd., and medium-sized banks such as China Merchants Bank and China Everbright Bank are particularly dependent on wealth management products for their funding sources.

There is also pervasive and pervasive illegal fundraising: packaging and publicity through television, newspapers, the Internet and other media, and inviting celebrities, experts, scholars, officials and others to build momentum. Running away, the collapse of wealth management companies, from Pan Asia to e-renting treasure and then to Zhongjin?? It is not only the media who are helping to commit abuse, but even officials who have lost their conscience.

China's financial sector is developing at such a fast pace that almost everyone can't keep up. Regulators, bricks, beasts, players, and ordinary people have all been left far behind! The financial industry is not fun, and if it is not done well, it may be a catastrophe!

What is the reason for the above financial chaos:

A Chinese person has always been good at "plagiarism" and "copycats", but they lack the spirit of "innovation"!

As small as the enterprise product brand, as large as the national reform policy. Or should it be called "learning" or "imitation" to understand it better. But this is not a disadvantage, on the contrary, it is still an advantage in a certain historical period, a great advantage. Why don't we learn from other people's correct theories and successful experiences, and do we have to do it all over again? In ancient and modern times, in China and abroad, backward countries have been catching up relatively quickly, such as Germany and Japan in modern times, and in contemporary times such as China, their GDP has continued to grow by double digits for many years, and their GDP in 2015 was 147 times that of 1980.

What is the reason, it is not how smart and hard the latecomers are (of course, smart efforts are very important), but because there are ready-made imitations in learning, and of course the speed is relatively fast! But innovation is different, there is nothing, and it is all up to oneself to explore! China has developed to the second place in the world, and we have almost finished learning what we should learn, and we must continue to walk ahead of others, and we can only continue to make mistakes and make innovations! Do the Chinese people lack the ability to innovate? No, they lack the spirit of innovation, and they like to lie on the merit book of history! If the Chinese people show the spirit of "breaking through," are they still afraid that the chaos in the financial field will not be cured? Although others no longer have ready-made answers, we continue to experiment, persevere, and finally explore a solution to lead the people of the world forward!

The people of the two countries like to "wait", waiting for others to make mistakes and give them opportunities.

Advance is a relative concept, others are planted and do not move, even if we are turtles crawling, it can be regarded as development; others make mistakes, and we retreat a little slower, which is also development! China has achieved many successes as a result, especially this time: 1?? The sluggish economic recovery in the United States has dragged down the Fed's delay in raising interest rates2?? Suddenly Brexit, the United Kingdom, the European Union earthquake, the world strategy tilted to China3?? Japan is still asleep in a real estate bubble 4?? Emerging market economies, such as Russia and Brazil, have languished due to low commodity prices such as oil. China's "waiting" strategy has once again waited for hope: we can still release water, we can still relax, we can still inflation, and even continue to invest in it, and we can continue to rely on land finance!

Third, we should try our best to continue to achieve rapid economic development under the existing framework, retreat to the second, and develop at a medium and high speed!

As long as we don't hurt our muscles and bones, and don't break our wrists! Advance on the basis of stability, hello, I'm good, hello everyone, why not do it? The idea is good, but can it be done in reality? The continuous accumulation of contradictions will one day require a strong man to break his wrist! For example, there are many problems in the financial field: the debt problem, the bank's dead debts, the difficulty of private financing, exchange rate control, the registration system, and so on.

Fourth, multiple objectives

The government's tasks have always been multi-objective, which is to achieve stability and development; to increase fiscal revenue and reduce taxes; to increase expenditures for people's livelihood but not to reduce administrative expenses; to clear out zombie enterprises but not to lose their jobs; to expand private enterprises but not to reduce state-owned enterprises; to protect both exchange rates and assets. Multiple goals can easily lead to no goal being achieved! The reality is cruel, although the dream is ideal!

5. Where are China's elites?

The many problems exposed in the financial chaos have highlighted China's lack of specialists, wizards, and all-rounders in the financial and economic fields, especially in the financial field! For example, last year's stock market crash and the subsequent bailouts! Is China lacking elite talent? The answer can be drawn from the fact that the level of the players is higher than that of the referees: China has no shortage of elite talents! Then let the outstanding talents come to the fore! But who will be able to control these people after they come to the fore? They are thoughtful, capable, and assertive!

The Yuan government divided the subjects into ten levels: one official, two officials, three monks, four Taoists, five doctors, six workers, seven craftsmen, eight prostitutes, nine Confucians, and ten beggars. Confucianism ranked ninth in society, lower than prostitutes. The reason why the Yuan Dynasty looked down on Confucian scholars (intellectuals) was that they were worried that they would have ideas and not blindly follow.

Dare to use intellectuals, not only to challenge the courage and mind of managers, but also to call the ability and level of managers!

Sixth, about the knowledge of "put"!

If you want to sum up the great success of China's reform and opening up in one word, it is the word "release"!1?? Let go of your hands and feet, compete in the market, and your enthusiasm and creativity will blow out instantly!2?? Opening up to the world and hitching a ride to the "WTO" will thus open up a golden decade of China's fastest development! China's success lies in letting it go, and if it doesn't succeed, of course, it will "not let go" or "not put it in place." "Administrativeness" is a malpractice in almost all economic fields, and this is even more true in the financial market, where there is not a visible hand touching the banks, stock market, foreign exchange market, and bond market! Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that it should give appropriate preference to the IPO, refinancing, and reorganization of enterprises in poverty-stricken areas that meet the requirements, and open up green channels. It seems that the stock market should complete the task of poverty alleviation? Shareholders should pay for poverty alleviation! This is obvious administrative interference! The central bank has taken action to maintain stability: Overseas institutions also have to pay risk reserves to carry out renminbi business; Commerzbank analysts believe that this practice is similar to the Tobin tax and is a typical intervention in the foreign exchange market! The IPO approval power, which is known as the world's greatest power, is also an abuse of administrative power, and it is obviously contrary to the registration system! Qian Jun believes that under the existing listing mechanism, the day a company goes public is the beginning of its decline. To change this, a registration system must be introduced!

VII. Regulation

Not to mention the lack of ability to supervise, not even the awareness of supervision. When it comes to really going to be regulated, what kind of regulation will be taken. There are two recent pieces of news that are very intriguing. First, the Red Cross still has to discuss whether or not to conduct an independent third-party audit? The Red Cross has been established for N years, but there has never been an independent third-party audit, and the question of whether or not to do so is still being discussed! The other is that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has set up an internal audit department, and China's stock market has been running since 1991, and it is 25 years old, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission of the University of China has not yet had an internal audit department. The "One Bank, Three Sessions" has been running in China for many years, and many aspects need to be improved in great strides to adapt to the rapidly changing financial market!

Eight re-election

As a result of next year's party general election, it is estimated that the risk-averse attitude and cautious style of officials before the general election may lead to a certain degree of stagnation in policy and the suspension of relevant institutions.