With the continuous rise in housing prices, for a house, often empty the savings of ordinary people for more than two generations, high housing prices overwhelm the average person, in order to comply with public opinion, another storm of housing price regulation is coming as scheduled, according to a comprehensive analysis of many aspects of the situation, Guan Yuntian and his team of consultants made a judgment that the real estate industry will inevitably usher in another harsh winter.

As expected, a week later, the financial institutions raised the deposit reserve by 5 percent, which not only raised the loan threshold for real estate enterprises, but also raised the interest rate on housing loans by 10 to 30 percent.

Changda Group has been involved in the real estate development industry for six or seven years, during which the real estate development business has earned a lot of profits for Changda Group, but it has also been affected by two policy controls, which has given Guan Yuntian a new understanding of this industry.

For a long time, Guan Yuntian has been thinking about a problem, that is, how to make the normal business behavior of enterprises as little as possible affected by the policy. Six or seven years ago, the decisive departure from the traditional manufacturing industry was aimed at getting rid of the environmental protection and other issues and more and more subject to policy regulation and control; now looking back at the original decision, Guan Yuntian believes that it is not only correct, but also very timely, if it does not withdraw from the traditional industries such as tire manufacturing and oil refining and petrochemical, the Changda Group now does not know how many problems it will face! The local government will put the Changda Group in a very dangerous situation if it grasps any of those problems.

Looking at the real estate development industry from the same perspective, Guan Yuntian believes that the industry is also facing many policy risks, such as national regulation, financial policies and different land supply policies in different places, which are all problems that real estate developers need to face at any time.

It is precisely for this reason that when he first set foot in the field of real estate development, some people suggested that Changda Group simply transform into a large-scale real estate enterprise, but Guan Yuntian was very cautious, he firmly believed that he must adhere to the principle of walking on two legs, in the process of industrial transformation and upgrading, you can get involved in real estate development, but the high-end manufacturing industry not only can not be wasted, but also continue to strengthen, so he suggested that Ye Jiayi, general manager of the group company who is good at enterprise management, is in charge of high-end manufacturing.

According to Guan Yuntian's assumption, the industry operated by Changda Group is best not related to various regulatory policies, but now the real estate development is once again facing policy regulation, although the industry profits are good, but he seems to have a feeling that he is not optimistic about its future.

After retiring from the National Development and Reform Commission, Director Wei was hired by Guan Yuntian as the director of the Changda Group Office in the provincial capital, the day after Lao Wei took office, Guan Yuntian went to see her, and after meeting and greeting, Guan Yuntian asked: "Director Wei, what do you think of the office conditions? If you are not satisfied, please tell me directly, and I will let them improve immediately." ”

"Hey, you haven't been to my office before, the office conditions here are much better than there! Not only is the office spacious and well-lit, but the staff is considerate, who served me before!"

"However, in the past, I held real power, but now that the office here has just been established, there are too few people in your charge!" Guan Yuntian said a joke.

"Isn't it said that the heroes don't mention the courage of the past? Now that I'm retired, don't mention the past, but to be honest, it's a bit of a waste for you to hire me as a consultant and let me be so leisurely. ”

"Director Wei, compared to before, this place must be much more leisurely, but consultants, how can anyone be busy all day? If that's the case, it will tire you out, and I don't want to go." Guan Yuntian sat down on the sofa opposite Lao Wei, "Sister, let's talk casually, in your vision, what kind of development direction do you think the real estate development industry will have in the future?"

Lao Wei pushed aside a piece of information that she was looking at just now, and after a little thought, she said: "More than ten years have passed, and the status of the real estate development industry, as a pillar industry of the national economy, has not changed so far.

"There are no new ideas, I don't know if Director Wei has noticed that a new wave of regulatory policies for the real estate industry is coming, and the financial industry has not only increased the deposit reserve, but also raised the interest on housing loans by 10% to 30%, and this time the regulation and control is not small!"

"Yes, this wave of regulation means that the industry is once again facing a harsh winter, and those developers who are not strong may be frozen to death. How about it, Changda Real Estate Company is still passable, right?"

"Banks have increased deposit reserves, which means that it is more difficult for developers to borrow, higher loan interest rates, higher loan thresholds for home buyers, and a reduction in housing sales. As for Changda Real Estate Company, we have experienced two regulatory policies, and have experience in dealing with them, the key is that our physical manufacturing industry is doing well, with the physical manufacturing industry as the backing, to deal with such a crisis, although it cannot be said to be easy, but it will not be panicked. "Guan Yuntian said.

"That being the case, there's nothing to worry about. Housing prices are rising too fast, and if they are not regulated, the people can't stand it!"

"I understand the original intention of the regulatory policy, for the sake of a house, the father and son generations, or even the three generations of grandchildren, have to be frugal, which is really a bit excessive. A house is meant to be inhabited in, and its use attributes determine its role, but high housing prices have made its owner a slave to it, which is not normal from that point of view. ”

"Well, it's rare to see an enlightened developer like you, and most people don't understand it. ”

"Although I understand, I am not optimistic about this industry. ”

"Why? As a pillar industry of the national economy, the real estate industry is encouraged by the policy, in addition, the average profit of this industry is higher than that of the traditional manufacturing industry, and there are not many industries comparable to real estate development, why are you not optimistic?"

"Director Wei, you said that these characteristics are the advantages of this industry, but the real estate industry also has some Achilles' heels, at least I think so. "Guan Yuntian said.

"Oh, what are the Achilles' heels I'd like to hear?"

"For example, this kind of irregular regulation, although I understand the necessity of regulation, will inevitably disrupt the business plan of the enterprise, to be honest, I don't like this kind of industry. ”

"You can see that you like a business environment that is not disrupted, or at least less disruptive?"

"Of course, the pressure exerted by the policy, and the competition between enterprises, are completely different things, in the face of competition, can give full play to people's subjective initiative, but in the face of the policy, in addition to unconditional implementation, the parties do not even have the opportunity to explain and speak. I don't know if Director Wei still remembers the closure of Changda Group's self-supplied power plant, although we have invested in environmental protection equipment in accordance with the policy requirements for rectification, and passed the acceptance, but in the second year, the policy was cut out and was closed. "Guan Yuntian said.

"Of course I do. Is it because of that incident that you made the decision to leave the traditional industry without hesitation?"

"Because of some problems encountered in oil refining and petrochemical and tire manufacturing, the idea of leaving the traditional manufacturing industry has been around for a long time, but through the captive power plant, we have made the final decision to leave the traditional manufacturing industry as soon as possible. ”

"But after all, the real estate development industry is different from the traditional industry, it has its own unique industry advantages. ”

"Yes, industries have their own characteristics, but in terms of policy interference, real estate development is no different from traditional industries. In addition, housing is a consumer durable, and any family, even if the economy is not a problem, will not buy houses one after another if they are only satisfied with living, so I think the space for the real estate market will become smaller and smaller. "Guan Yuntian said.

"Your point of view is a bit new, it seems that you have been thinking about real estate for a long time?" said Director Wei.

"Let's be honest, I've been thinking about this since the last regulatory storm, but I'm going to face the same situation again, and now I feel it even stronger. ”

"Oh, so what do you want to do?

"At present, it is just a preliminary idea, what is there to do when you leave the real estate industry?" Guan Yuntian was also a little confused.

"No, with all the years of experience I spent in the planning department, it was not easy to find a project that could compete with real estate development. ”

"Director Wei, considering new projects, profits are of course important, but the policy risks faced by the industry are also the main factors that should be examined in my opinion. ”

Lao Wei, who was the director of planning at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) when she was in office, had a considerable understanding of various industrial fields, and after listening to Guan Yuntian's initial ideas, she suggested: "If Guan always has plans in this regard, the pharmaceutical industry may be one of the areas that can be considered." ”

"Well, I've been thinking about it, Changda Group Pharmaceutical Factory has only one product now, which seems very monotonous, but I don't know where to start thinking about new products. Director Wei, do you still have any contact with Director Huang of the Provincial Medical Administration?"

Lao Wei's suggestion made Guan Yuntian's thinking suddenly broaden, and he thought of Lao Huang of the Medical Administration Bureau, who had a one-sided acquaintance. In fact, the purpose of hiring consultants is not all to let them do specific things, with their experience, sometimes a casual reminder can give people great inspiration.

"Director Huang, ----, old Huang hasn't been in contact with him for the past six months, what's the matter, you want to meet with him?" said Director Wei.

"I remember when I met him more than a year ago, Lao Huang said that the pharmaceutical factory had a single product and was a bit of a waste of resources, and he was busy with another thing at that time, so I didn't have an in-depth discussion with him. Director Wei, if I can contact Lao Huang, I would like to meet her. "Guan Yuntian said.

"I have Lao Huang's phone number, can I contact him now?"

"Get in touch now and try to meet him as soon as possible. ”

Lao Wei took out Lao Huang's phone number from the mobile phone address book, she immediately dialed it, and the phone was immediately connected, "Hello Director Huang! ”

"Director Wei, I haven't been in touch for a long time, are you okay?"

"Okay, how are you?

"At my age, where am I going to change? I'm going to stay in this position until I retire. ”

"Director Huang, have you been busy lately? If you have time, can you get together together? After all, it's been a long time. ”

"Juju? Yes! There's nothing busy that isn't busy, and after eight hours of busy work, can't you have some freedom after work?"

"Okay, how about tonight?"

"Yes!" Lao Huang readily agreed.

"That's it, set a time and place, and I'll let you know. ”

At around six o'clock in the evening, Guan Yuntian and Lao Wei arrived at the hotel in advance to wait, they hadn't seen each other for more than a year, what kind of advice could this Director Huang give Guan Yuntian?