Volume II: Subprime Mortgages

The New Year's Eve talks about the big picture

In a blink of an eye, it is the traditional Chinese New Year. The Spring Festival is Bai Shuo's favorite festival, not because of his tradition, but since his brothers and friends scattered all over the place, basically only this festival can have the opportunity to gather. No, Zhong Pengcheng and other scattered partners have already returned to Shudu early, and Xiao Zhen has only returned to the imperial capital for a short time, so he stayed in Shudu on duty this year. For a while, this Spring Festival brothers and friends gathered, and it was very lively.

On Chinese New Year's Eve, the second uncle's family also came to Bai Shuo's house for the New Year. Because Xiao Zhen was alone in Shudu, Bai Shuo specially invited Xiao Zhen to his home. Father Bai was also pleasantly surprised by Xiao Zhen's arrival, Bai Shuo didn't mention Xiao Zhen's background to his family, but even the level of a deputy county magistrate like Xiao Zhen was enough to make Father Bai feel vibrant. Xiao Zhen was also very happy to be able to experience the family atmosphere of the New Year in a foreign place, and specially brought two bottles of Moutai from his father. A Chinese New Year's Eve meal was enjoyable, and the two bottles of Moutai were divided between Bai Father, Second Uncle, Bai Shuo, Xiao Zhen and Bai Shuo's second uncle's cousin Li Fei, and felt that they were still a little unhappy, and the three juniors each opened two bottles of beer. After the meal, a large family pulled the homely cooking. Bai Shuo's cousin, Li Fei, has been working in the real estate industry and is now also a project manager for a real estate company, responsible for a project of more than 300 acres. Bai Shuo took the initiative to discuss the situation of real estate in Huaguo. Who knew that in the face of the good situation, Li Fei expressed deep concern about the increasingly crazy housing prices, believing that the current house has gradually deviated from the function of people's residence and use, and has become an investment product, and it is becoming more and more intense. When something is detached from its original role and becomes the object of hype, a crisis will follow. Xiao Zhen also said that because of its particularity, the real estate industry may be the object of national control for a long time in the future, and it can neither let its unrealistic crazy growth, nor allow the bubble to burst, which is a proposition test of the country's ability to govern and control the economy. Bai Shuo thought of the ups and downs of real estate in the later generations of Huaguo, although he tried to reduce the influence of real estate on the economy, it was always difficult to get rid of the kidnapping of a series of industrial chains. At the same time, I also thought about the huge crisis caused by the collapse of real estate in the United States. Hmm, the real estate crisis in the United States? It seems to be a short time ago in my memory.

The first, second, and third days of the Lunar New Year were almost all about visiting relatives and friends, and by the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, Cao An, Zhuzi, Zhong Pengcheng and others had fled from their homes, and it was finally time for the brothers to reunite. The beard went back to his hometown, but the key to the bar was thrown to Bai Shuo. It became the home of the brothers. That night, Bai Shuo and his friends, as well as Liang Ying and Liang Ying's two friends, gathered here to drink. Liang Ying's two friends are Liu Shu, who went to study in the United States, and the other is Kevin, a computer genius who has been secretly helping Liang Ying. Liu Shu was originally from Shudu, and this time he also went home for the New Year, while Kevin is from Hong Kong Island, and this time he went to Shudu to meet Liang Ying. Bai Shuo remembered that Liang Ying had said before that one of his classmates who studied finance in Mi Guo had mentioned to him about the hidden economic dangers of Mi Guo, and it was confirmed that Liu Shu was indeed the economic genius that Liang Ying mentioned before, which immediately aroused Bai Shuo's interest. After three rounds of drinking, everyone exchanged ideas in a small area. Bai Shuo, Liang Ying, Liu Shu, and Zhong Pengcheng focused on economic issues in a corner. Cao An and Kevin have sparked a spark in computer networking, one of them is biased towards technology, the other is keen on application, and they also have a great feeling of seeing each other late. Pillar and his brothers were shaking dice, drinking, and singing in the hall.

"Are you so sure that the economy of the United States will be the first to break out in the real estate sector?" In the corner of the bar, Liu Shu pondered for a long time and asked Bai Shuo.

"I'm not really sure about that, it's just a feeling. On Chinese New Year's Eve, a cousin of mine who works in real estate also expressed concern about Huaguo real estate. If there is a risk of bubble in China's real estate, I think there will be a greater risk in the current United States. Moreover, the various financial derivatives of the United States are more mature and complex than those of China, and these things have been promoting the rapid development of the real estate, finance and insurance industries of the United States, but in fact, this also increases its risk in disguise. I think it's time to pay off the debt. If the foam reaches a height that cannot be higher, it is destined to collapse one day. Imagine how much impact it would have on the world economy if there was a systematic collapse of real estate in the United States?" Bai Shuo expressed his thoughts.

Liu Shu said in surprise: "In fact, my mentor also has the conclusion that there will be systemic risks in Miguo Real Estate. Now those people on Wall Street are really a bunch of crazy people who have devised countless financial instruments to match the continued growth of real estate. Nowadays, many people who are not in a position to buy a house at all can easily buy a house without stress. None of this is a problem if housing prices continue to stay long, but if housing prices don't rise one day, it's hard to imagine how fragile the whole system that is currently being built will be."

At this time, Zhong Pengcheng said: "There is an old saying in Huaguo, which is called the obsession of the authorities. As far as I know, a mathematician has made mathematical quantitative deductions about the mortgage system of the United States mentioned by Liu Shu. From the theory of financiers, although there are probabilities of risks in those loans, insurance, MBS mortgage securities and the like, they believe that these probabilities cannot explode at the same time, and as long as the probabilities are balanced, then they will never have any big risks. However, after the mathematician's mathematical calculations, he found that their set of things completely ignores the existence of systemic risk, just like Bai Shuo said, if the housing price rises to the point of unaffordability, leading to the emergence of systemic risk, then which derivative products will in turn become the last straw that crushes the real estate and even the insurance and financial systems in the United States."

"MBS mortgage securities are still pediatrics, in order to further avoid risks and obtain benefits, now they are on this basis to make some CDO, CDS and other things, these things ordinary people don't understand what it is, and even the best regulatory officials may not be able to play, they are completely messed around by those people on Wall Street. Liu Shu added.

"Yes, mortgage securities, and those subprime loans. If there is a problem with the real estate in the United States, the price cannot go up, and everyone cannot repay the loan, it will inevitably lead to a crisis in the subprime mortgage institution, and then cause problems in the financial and insurance systems, and then affect the stock market, industry, and all countries in the world, becoming a huge crisis affecting the world. Bai Shuo's train of thought seemed to be stimulated by everyone. Combined with the experience in his memory, he said his own inference.

After listening to Bai Shuo's inference, everyone couldn't keep up with the rhythm for a while. Liu Shu was stunned and said: "In fact, the real estate of the United States has been a little weak in development since last year. If there is a systemic problem, then the crisis that Bai Shuo inferred is entirely possible. ”

Inspired by Bai Shuo, everyone collided with sparks again and again, and the more they talked, the more interested they became, and some things that they couldn't figure out for a while also made new discoveries in the exchange and collision. After almost everyone was convinced that there would be a huge economic crisis in the United States, Liang Ying raised a question: If this crisis occurs, what can be done to gain benefits in this crisis? This is the key to turning theory into practical benefits. And when exactly will this crisis occur? Because the financial markets are changing rapidly, if we can't be precise in the time period, we are likely to die before the opportunity arrives, and if we act too late, we may only have to eat some leftovers.

I have to say that Liang Ying's two questions are the key to the problem. Everyone fell silent for a moment. After that, Liu Shu and Zhong Pengcheng suggested paying close attention to relevant information and the movements of institutions, focusing on using short-selling real estate, stocks, mortgage securities and other ways to collect benefits. Liu Shu also proposed to earn profits by designing VAM tools with insurance companies. These have been agreed upon by everyone.

After thinking about it, Bai Shuo believes that everyone should immediately make preliminary preparations, and as for the time, it is recommended to take the second half of this year and the first half of next year as the action time node of this plan. Then focus on the specifics of Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and others.

Finally, Liang Ying suggested that everyone should divide labor and cooperate:

Liu Shu is responsible for the investigation of the real estate situation in the United States and the attention of key institutions such as Lehman Brothers, and comprehensively collects relevant information about the crisis.

Zhong Pengcheng cooperated with Liu Shu to analyze data and information, and at the same time focused on observing the international financial situation.

Liang Ying is responsible for the organization and operation of the fund. It is also recommended that the remaining more than 1 million cash in the stock account be used as the pre-operating capital.

Bai Shuo made a judgment on the time of the outbreak of the crisis based on the overall information situation.

In the end, Bai Shuo added that although everyone is the core member of this plan, they mainly focus on directional things, but professional things are left to professional people. At present, all lines should pay close attention to recruiting professional talents and prepare for follow-up actions.

At this point, a grand plan took shape and began to be put up and running in such a small bar. Except for Bai Shuo, in fact, everyone still has no bottom in their hearts, maybe this plan will make them the biggest madman in the eyes of people. If successful, they will become legends.

Around this Spring Festival, there is another thing that makes Bai Shuo and Liang Ying extremely happy. It is the popularity of Hongwan Plaza that has risen sharply again around the Spring Festival, Zheng Hong has successfully introduced a large supermarket to settle in the commercial building, and signed several international brands to open a ** store in the square. At present, all the properties under Bai Shuo's name have also been successfully rented, although the rent in the first year is not high, but it has also greatly reduced Bai Shuo's monthly pressure. During the small-scale gathering, Liang Ying concluded through accurate calculations that if all the assets of Hongwan are sold at present, after deducting the various costs paid in the early stage and the principal and interest repaid, a profit of about 90 million yuan can be realized. Bai Shuo only smiled faintly when he heard this, which was all expected. Yes, it's still a little bit close to 100 million. Who said in my memory, "Set a small goal first and earn him 100 million", which caused an uproar in later generations. Now Bai Shuo deeply feels that as long as there is the right method, this is really just a small goal.

In addition, there is another thing that Bai Shuo pays special attention to, that is, during the Spring Festival, everyone saw Chen Bing's talk show on TV. In the show, Chen Bing appeared as a musical talent, dressed in a fashionable dress, looking dignified and generous, beautiful and pure, gentle and touching and intoxicating between a smile and a smile, although it only gained a lot of attention after a brief appearance. In the next few days, Chen Bing also released one or two singles in advance and broadcast them on the TV program, which made everyone feast. Of course, these two songs are not those given to Chen Bing by Bai Shuo, because those songs are the trump cards in Chen Bing's hands, and there is no reason to beat Wang Bang when he shoots. As for those songs, Nie Dong also specially sent the rearranged songs such as "Blue and White Porcelain" to Bai Shuo and asked him to give his opinions. Bai Shuo listened to "Blue and White Porcelain" intensively, although it was a little different from what he remembered, Bai Shuo felt that this version was even better than that, because it was more in line with Chen Bing's style.

Bai Shuo knew that Nie Dong had already started the early publicity of Chen Bing's debut. After that, it must be taking advantage of the opportunity to launch Chen Bing's new album. After thinking about it, he decided to use his own way to help Chen Bing again. Bai Shuo asked Cao An to put the navy organization up and running again. In fact, these days, Cao An's naval force has been greatly developed, not only with a large number of people, but also with a strict organizational structure. If Jiang Tao's incident happened now, Cao An was confident that it would only take one day to achieve the results of the previous three or four days.

The day after the talk show aired, an account on a BBS published a post titled "Who is the lover of my dreams?", which posted a lot of photos of Chen Bing and the content of the talk show. At the end of the post, the author said that he had a feeling of love for Chen Bing at first sight, and asked everyone who this beauty was?

Within a day or two, this post was frantically forwarded, and there were many netizens replying below:

This is my dream girl, don't grab it.

Is this a human being? This should be a heavenly immortal.

I'm also in love, brother, I'm sorry.

She seems to be a singer, who knows what songs she has sung?

......

Of course, there were some bad sounds, but they were quickly drowned out by unanimous praise.

At this time, another article on Chen Bing broke out on the Internet in detail, of course, the article is a high-quality online article that has been carefully compiled and packaged, and the article set off again on the Internet. So far, it can be said that Chen Bing has not officially debuted, and he has already been called out by everyone.

Seeing such a good effect, Nie Dong also made a special call, and said that he had spent so much effort and used a lot of connections to make the propaganda effect, which was simply weak compared to Bai Shuo and Cao An's divine operation, and since then he has admired Bai Shuo more and more.

Of course, in this network promotion, Bai Shuo and Cao An also spent a small amount of expenses, and Cao An through the system he established, gave a reward of five dimes per post to those who posted and guided according to the regulations. Once such a mechanism was launched, Cao An's online water army was even stronger. The term "Five Maoists" actually started at this time, which was also something Bai Shuo did not expect.